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The Future of the Mets

Valadius Aug 21 2005 05:38 PM

In honor of Mike Jacobs's dramatic welcome to the major leagues, I want to start a thread that projects what our roster will look like in the semi-distant future, assuming no one is traded, using players currently within the organization, and allowing for holes where we don't have anybody yet. Let's start with the completely obvious: C/1B Mike Jacobs (I'm not sure where they'll end up playing him) SS Jose Reyes 3B David Wright CF Carlos Beltran (for good or ill, he's here) SP Jae Seo SP/RP Aaron Heilman RP Juan Padilla RP Heath Bell Guys in the minors that should come up: 2B Anderson Hernandez OF Lastings Milledge SP Yusmeiro Petit SP Brian Bannister Let's take this and run with it.

Nymr83 Aug 21 2005 05:58 PM

I tried doing it by position and it didn't work well, so instead here are all the guys that i think will still be on the roster opening day 2008 (in order of most likely to least likely.) David Wright (if they trade him i won't watch anymore), Carlos Beltran (his contract puts him ahead of...), Jose Reyes, Pedro Martinez, Jae Seo, Lastings Milledge, Heath Bell, Phillip Humber, Yusmeiro Petit, Royce Ring, Kris Benson, Mike Jacobs (in a utility 1b/lf/c/ph role.) i'd love to give Hernandez a chance to show he deserves to play 2B next year since there don't seem to be better options out there. i'm not high on Bannister at all and for some reason i think nobody would have mentioned Jacobs before today...lets remember that he fields on the same level as Piazza but without his bat...in the long run he doesnt have the glove for catcher or the bat to justify him at 1B.

DocTee Aug 21 2005 06:09 PM

What't the consensus on the future of Jeff Keppinger? I see many (most) here prefer Anderson Hernandez and/or Chase Lambin, but I was pleased by JK's performance last year, and would have liked to see him get another shot.

Valadius Aug 21 2005 06:12 PM

Forget Lambin, please... his defense is subpar. He has 16 errors this year at Norfolk.

Nymr83 Aug 21 2005 06:13 PM

Keppinger has been hurt or I'd have to believe he'd have gotten his shot already. The Mets need to get rid of Matsui and only bring back ONE of the Cairo/Anderson/Woodward trio next year because there are alot of guys (hernandez, lambin, keppinger) who are probably old enough that further time in the minors is useless, its time to see if they can help or not and each deserves as many at bats as possible at 2B to show us what they can do.

smg58 Aug 21 2005 09:37 PM

It's tough to project too far ahead. Other than Wright and Pedro, I can't think of anybody I categorically wouldn't trade for any offer, and other than Matsui I can't think of anybody who has to be some place else next April. I don't like blocking youngsters of at least some potential with veteran mediocrity. As far as next year's starting pitching goes, I was initially thinking that a solid #2 was a high priority, with Glavine (if necessary) or Trachsel or Zambrano (if he can't be packaged for an upgrade) sticking around one more year at #4 to keep an opening for Petit in 07, with one of Seo/Bannister/Heilman serving as #5. Seo's recent performance is making me question the need to deal here (yes, he would have to keep it up to convince me), leaving a possible additional opening for Bannister or Heilman in the rotation. I think they have the major league resources to make at least one blockbuster deal while protecting Milledge and Petit, and the team would be better served both short-term and long-term if they went this route.

Valadius Aug 21 2005 10:06 PM

Petit should be in the rotation at some point next year. His control is uncanny. We need to get younger in our rotation, and we have the talent to do it. They've served us well, but in the end, 37-year-olds and such should give way to young guns. P.S. I finally got an avatar up. That's the double-thumbed fist symbol of my hero, the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson, the eccentric and brilliant sportswriter/political junkie/social commentator.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 22 2005 03:58 AM

I thought that that avatar was the old Milwaukee Brewers logo that the fans are trying to revive.

MFS62 Aug 22 2005 05:13 AM

Valadius wrote: Forget Lambin, please... his defense is subpar. He has 16 errors this year at Norfolk. IIRC, Frank White won the American League Gold Glove one year when he committed 18 errors. Ya' never know. They've come up with a whole bunch of defensive statistics since. But you still have to watch the guy play. Later

MFS62 Aug 22 2005 05:32 AM

83 - Humber is out indefinitely with arm problems (did he have surgery?). I'm not exactly counting on him to be healthy just yet. (Tim Leary. David Proctor flashbacks) Hey, if we're talking about the future, what about that kid catcher they signed last week? Think his name is Alberto Castillo. Great move for the future. Yes, I'm a sarcastic bastard. Later

Edgy MD Aug 22 2005 06:44 AM

They've come up with a whole bunch of defensive statistics since. Tell it to Corey Ragsdale, man.

MFS62 Aug 22 2005 06:58 AM

Edgy DC wrote: They've come up with a whole bunch of defensive statistics since. Tell it to Corey Ragsdale, man. I will. In fact I'd be glad to tell him personally if he ever makes it to the majors. But since he is still hitting far below .250 at Binghamton, that's not likely to happen real soon. Tell me, are there any new ways to measure strikeouts? Man, you don't forget anything, do you? :) Well, remember this. With me, Ragsdale is an emotional subject, not really a statistical one. I only used his number of errors in comparison to his RBI to make a point about how bad his offense is. Later

Rotblatt Aug 22 2005 07:50 AM

C Mike Jacobs 1B Valent (assuming we resign him) 2B Anderson Hernandez SS Jose Reyes 3B David Wright RF L. Milledge CF Carlos Beltran LF P. Redman UI: Chase Lambin SP Petey SP Petit SP Jae Seo SP Humber SP Bannister CL Juan Padilla SU Heath Bell MRP Aaron Heilman LOOGY Tim Hamulack LRP Neal Musser

MFS62 Aug 22 2005 07:56 AM

Rotblatt, other than the fact that Humber is on the DL with a bad arm, I would flip-flop Millege and Redman. I've read several times that Redman doesn't have a good enough arm to play right. If the Mets get past the Boras blockade, this year's first rounder (Pelfrey) is said to be very close to already being a major league pitcher. Of course, they said that about Heilmann, too and it took him a while to make it. Later

Benjamin Grimm Aug 22 2005 08:09 AM

I have to hope that over the long term they find a better first baseman than Eric Valent.

MFS62 Aug 22 2005 08:12 AM

Yep, I think this was an attempt to use players already in the Met organization. 1B Brian Harper has some good power numbers at AA this year. Later

SI Metman Aug 22 2005 09:10 AM

Brett Harper reeks of a Roberto Petagine clone. 24 year old power hitting lefty tearing up the Eastern League. I also wouldn't put much stock in Redman either. I'm betting that he'll be gone soon as a minor league FA. He turns 26 tomorrow.

Edgy MD Aug 28 2005 01:33 PM

On Ragsdale, strikeouts is also a narrow measure on offense, as errors are on defense. His whiff rate is tremendous (Jose Hernandez territory), but the guy has 47 extra-base hits this season also. I think we need to get a better understanding of what draft picks are --- they're all very small parts of the greater game of prospect development, and focusing on one so critically and so abusively is as pointless as focusing on the lack of returns of a single chip in a night at the gaming tables. It's fun to follow the men as we do in the prospect update forum, but none of them alone --- even first rounders --- necessarily represent any broad successful or failed organizational philosophy. The Mets have a second-round draft pick fropm 2001 who didn't hit over .200 until last year. Ooh, bad. But they also have a 6'4" shortstop who draws raves for his defensive ability from outside the organization, who is now hitting fifth for Binghamton, and at 22 is showing the progress that rewards a team that is able to dig beyond the obvious numbers. Year Age Team G AVG OBP SLG OPS 2001 18 Kingsport 23 .141 .253 .282 .535 2001 18 Total 23 .141 .253 .282 .535 2002 19 Columbia 37 .177 .262 .210 .472 2002 19 Brooklyn 66 .183 .277 .259 .536 2002 19 Total 103 .181 .268 .241 .509 2003 20 Capital City 105 .180 .297 .259 .556 2003 20 Total 105 .180 .297 .259 .556 2004 21 St. Lucie 124 .219 .303 .337 .640 2004 21 Norfolk 6 .250 .286 .300 .586 2004 21 Total 130 .220 .303 .336 .638 2005 22 St. Lucie 68 .260 .347 .487 .834 2005 22 Binghamton 56 .226 .305 .384 .689 2005 22 Total 124 .246 .330 .445 .775 Still has a long way to go, but it looks like the Mets are being somewhat rewarded for refusing to do what you demanded they do --- cut him loose and cut their losses. Why should I forget? I like the Mets.

Nymr83 Aug 28 2005 03:08 PM

strikeouts is also a narrow measure on offense, as errors are on defense I agree that strikeouts aren't much different from other outs in the majors. But when evaluating a prospect's numbers i hate to see lots of K's in the low minors- if you can't hit the mostly fastballs and changes there how the hell are you going to make contact in the majors? I'm pretty sure guys who K alot in the low minors are less successful in general than those who post similiar ba/obp/slg numbers but with their outs not coming from k's. maybe i'll check this out later i dont really want to start a research project right now and this would be a pretty big undertaking.

Hawkeye57 Aug 29 2005 06:07 AM

My favorite player is, of course, Mike Piazza, but I have a feeling he is just getting too old for the catching job. I think after his contract is up this year (I think), they should really think about leaving him in or taking him out. My friend who loves Mike Piazza would die to see him gone. But the point is we need younger guys that can perform better under pressure and in a winning point of view. If we are winning we need a catcher than can stop the runner at home and can bat solidly. I have noticed that Mike Piazza can hit, I mean really hit. But home runs are one part of the game. What matters that most is scoring and then defending your lead. All in all, Jacobs and Castro could both perform better than Piazza.

MFS62 Aug 29 2005 06:35 AM

Edgy, Nice work. As a fellow Mets fan, I also want to see every prospect develop to become a productive contributor to team success. And the numbers show that he has made improvement. The team has obviously put time and effort into trying to make him better, and that have succeeded to a degree. But when you get right down to it, he is still hitting below .250 in AA ball. This is the year the Mets must make a decision on adding him to the 40 man roster or exposing him to the Rule V Draft. Based on what you found, would you do it if you were them? At the expense of what other prospects who are higher rated? If you recall, I said this: With me, Ragsdale is an emotional subject, not really a statistical one. I only used his number of errors in comparison to his RBI to make a point about how bad his offense is. This weekend I remembered a few quotes that maybe explain how that relates to my felings about Ragsdale. That inspirational speaker who shows up on talk shows a lot -the guy with the expensive suit, great tan and hair and bright teeth (Tony Roberts?) has said "People will spend more time, money and effort movng away from pain than they will to move toward pleasure". and, in a sales class I once took, the instructor said: "People buy based on emotion, then justify it with reason". I would have taken the less expensive approach. I guess that makes me a typical consumer. To date, I don't feel that the time, effort and money spent on him has resulted in enough benefit. And since this is emotional, there are no numbers of what he has achieved so far that can change my mind. But you made a good try. Later