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This is from the New York Times. I'm not sure how concerned I should be about this. I suppose the Mets should certainly let Pelfrey ease up a bit if they open a big lead and clinch early. (And if they get eliminated, they should shut him down.)
But until the division is settled, he's going to have to keep pitching. And if the Mets hold on to their lead, Pelfrey might get as many as five post-season starts.
="Pat Borzi, New York Times"]September 5, 2008
Overworking the Workhorse: Risk or Reward?
By PAT BORZI
With every pitch Mike Pelfrey throws Friday night against the Phillies at Shea Stadium, the pitching coach Dan Warthen will be one of the more fidgety people in the Mets’ dugout. Even if the 24-year-old Pelfrey pitches effectively, with little stress, Warthen will still be quite aware that every additional inning he compiles the rest of this season comes with a certain risk.
The more Pelfrey pitches, the greater the chances for an injury next year, or a decrease in effectiveness. That is not a notion based on paranoia or fatalistic thinking. Instead, it is based on a theory researched by the Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci and now widely accepted in baseball that says that any pitcher younger than 25 whose total number of innings jumps by more than 30 from the previous season leaves himself susceptible to injury the next year, or at least to a much higher earned run average.
Last season, alternating primarily between the Mets and Class AAA New Orleans, the right-handed Pelfrey pitched 152 2/3 innings. Having emerged as a key member of the Mets’ rotation this season, he has already compiled 169 2/3 innings, all on the major league level, with perhaps five starts remaining. If he averages six innings in those starts — a conservative estimate — he will finish with 199 2/3 innings, an increase of 47. But that total will go still higher if the Mets make it to October.
“Now, certainly, they’ve done the studies, and 30 to 35 innings is that danger barometer, the red spot,” Warthen said on Wednesday in Milwaukee, standing outside the trainer’s room in the visitors’ clubhouse at Miller Park. “But we’re talking about the playoffs. We’re going to have to test the waters.”
Verducci said his theory stemmed from a conversation in the late 1990s with Rick Peterson, who was then the Oakland A’s pitching coach. Peterson believed workload increases exceeding 25 to 30 innings stressed young arms, a theory he took with him to the Mets, who fired him in June. He could not be reached for comment on Thursday.
The 30-inning threshold is an indicator rather than a hard-and-fast rule, Verducci said. And there are exceptions, like Detroit’s Justin Verlander, who followed a 56-inning increase from 2005 to 2006 (when he won 17 games and the American League Rookie of the Year award) by going 18-6 with a nearly identical E.R.A. in 2007.
But of the seven pitchers Verducci considered at risk for problems going into this season, four have indeed been injured — Ian Kennedy of the Yankees, Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona, Yovani Gallardo of Milwaukee and Toronto’s Dustin McGowan. A fifth, Tom Gorzelanny of Pittsburgh, is having a poor season.
Most major league organizations now seem so wedded to the 30-inning principle that Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman is saying that Joba Chamberlain will again begin next season in the bullpen to minimize his increase in innings.
In the case of Pelfrey, however, the Mets seem to feel they have no choice.
With John Maine on the disabled list, with uncertainty over what an aging Pedro Martínez can give them and with last season’s collapse still in the background, the Mets are leaning on Pelfrey. They do not want to lose out to the Phillies again, which makes it hard to let Pelfrey, the club’s top winner at 13-8, miss a start or two.
Mets Manager Jerry Manuel indicated as much last week when he said: “Somebody will have to do something they’ve never done before. Somebody will have to play more games or do more than they’ve ever done before. That’s the price you have to pay.”
Manuel said Wednesday that General Manager Omar Minaya had not told him to go easy on Pelfrey. Still, Warthen worries.
“When he had those back-to-back complete games at 108 pitches, you start to wonder, are we going too far?” Warthen said, referring to Pelfrey’s victories over Atlanta and Houston last month. Then, in his last start, Pelfrey threw 116 pitches, his second-highest total of the year, in six and two-thirds innings against Florida.
“There are some uncharted territories,” Warthen said. “We feel comfortable in that he hasn’t shown fatigue. We’ve backed off all his bullpens. He’s a big, strong kid.”
Indeed, Warthen hopes Pelfrey’s large frame (6 feet 7 inches and 230 pounds) and steady mechanics can handle the work. Pelfrey said he now throws only 15 to 30 pitches in a bullpen session, usually on flat ground or uphill, instead of 45 off a bullpen mound, and that he does not throw long-toss as much.
“I don’t even feel like I’ve had the same workload as last year,” he said. “I feel like I’ve been a lot more efficient this year. Last year, several times I went out and threw 100 pitches in five innings. It’s a lot harder to do that than to throw 100 pitches in eight innings or so. It’s a lot more stressful, a lot more taxing on your body and arm.”
Pelfrey’s innings total is not the only mounting number being scrutinized in baseball. The pitch totals being compiled by Milwaukee’s standout left-hander C. C. Sabathia are also attracting attention.
Undefeated since being acquired from Cleveland, Sabathia (9-0, 1.43 E.R.A.) has thrown more pitches this season (3,161) than anyone in baseball except Toronto’s A. J. Burnett (3,198). Sabathia also leads baseball with an average of 109 pitches per start.
As a Brewer, Sabathia already has six complete games and three shutouts, the latest his near no-hitter last Sunday in Pittsburgh. The complete games probably stem in part from the Brewers’ shaky bullpen, which one major league scout called the worst of all the playoff contenders, including the Mets. Still, his high number of pitches, and the fact that he has completed games in which the Brewers have had a sizable lead, has led to speculation that the Brewers are milking Sabathia for everything he is worth because they have little expectation of re-signing him when he becomes a free agent after the season.
Milwaukee Manager Ned Yost insisted that he carefully watches the 28-year-old Sabathia for signs of fatigue. “I think about it every day,” Yost said. “I really do.”
“I understand the rationale of, why’s he in the game when it’s 7-0?” Yost said. “But he’s got a chance for a shutout and a complete game. My concern is that we win, and that C. C. benefits from his talents and abilities. Who would not pay extra for a guy who finishes what he starts?”
Still, as the pitches mount for Sabathia and the innings mount for Pelfrey, more than just money is at stake. |
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