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Memories of the Collapse (split from Baseball Prospectus)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 07:27 AM

I'm surpremely CAHNfident as compared to last year. I feel better 3 up/17 left today than I did about 7 up/17 left a year ago.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 07:34 AM

I don't know. I was pretty confident with the 7-game lead, I think. (We could look back in the archives and see what we were all thinking.) It was after losing this game, if I recall correctly, that I first felt the collapse coming on. I do like the softness of the schedule, but I took comfort in that last year, too. And seeing how tough the Nationals played over the last two days didn't make me feel warm and fuzzy about next week.

Frayed Knot Sep 11 2008 07:48 AM

My lack of CAHNfidence last year had to do with what would happen once we go TO the playoffs based on how things had gone over the previous 3 months or so. But while it was still '7 with 17' with what looked like a favorable schedule it didn't occur to me that we wouldn't get there.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 07:55 AM

Yeah, I guess what I'm saying is that by then they had been playing so averagely for so long that the unthinkable, while unlikely, wouldn't be all that surprising or all so undeserved. This year's team, despite its flaws, just appears to be made of stronger stuff. Sure they could Easley blow it, but I have CAHNfidence they won't.

AG/DC Sep 11 2008 08:06 AM

Last year a bullpen collapse was so deflating. This year, it's like, "Fuck it, we can punch back," even when we don't. I made a thread last year directed to the offense, instructing them to keep pounding, and not depend on the bullpen at all. It took them this long to listen.

metsguyinmichigan Sep 11 2008 08:18 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 11 2008 09:31 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't know. I was pretty confident with the 7-game lead, I think. (We could look back in the archives and see what we were all thinking.) It was after losing this game, if I recall correctly, that I first felt the collapse coming on. I do like the softness of the schedule, but I took comfort in that last year, too. And seeing how tough the Nationals played over the last two days didn't make me feel warm and fuzzy about next week. For me, it was the game against Washington where they were down by a bunch after bullpen screw-ups, Marlon Anderson hit a bases loaded triple to put them back up -- and then the pen pissed it away again.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 08:21 AM

Let's split this into a memories of the collapse thread

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 08:28 AM

Good idea. Done!

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 08:31 AM

My collapse memories: 1) The gay dame the Phillies won on the squibler to the mound 2) The Billy Wagner isn't available game 3) The Let's Blow the Marlon Anderson Triple game. 2 and 3 might have been the same game. It's all mushed rttogether for me.

metirish Sep 11 2008 08:32 AM

Starting Humber in a big game.

soupcan Sep 11 2008 08:35 AM

Tom 'I'm not devastated' Glavine.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 08:38 AM

Wasn't the Marlon Anderson triple game against Florida? (I may be confusing my Marlins with my Marlons.) I think that was the same game when Willie made his panic move, pulling Feliciano after one walk with a three-run lead. That was the game when I became irrevocably opposed to his remaining as Mets manager. I guess this is the month to remember the collapse, whether we want to or not. Maybe it will be cathartic to recall last year's misery while the Mets push on to a successful finish this year. (Or, if they fall apart again, we'll at least be better prepared to cope with it.) I think I want a World Series championship this year more than any other since 1986. A quick eradication of the 2007 collapse would be much better than the 16 years it took for the Phillies. Combine that with this being the last year at Shea, it would be a particularly good year to win it all.

themetfairy Sep 11 2008 08:46 AM

I was there for the Glavine finale. 'Nuff said.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 08:50 AM

I was watching on TV. (I was stuck with the Marlins telecast, which made it all the more unpleasant. Tommy Hutton was crowing with delight at the Mets misery.) Shea was rocking as the game started. There was so much positive energy there. And then BOOM, the place suddenly became a morgue. It was nice that the Mets had that one final chance to reverse the collapse. It was horrible that they blew it so quickly, and so convincingly. (Of course, there was still hope; the Phillies had a later start time and had they also lost, there would have been a tie-breaking playoff game at Citizens Bank Park the following day. But that seemed like, and was, a slender hope to hang on to.)

TransMonk Sep 11 2008 08:56 AM

I was sick to my stomach all day that day. That was the only time I can remember being physically ill because of baseball. Still, in hindsight, losing to the Cardinals in 2006 was worse for me. That 2006 team seemed like a team of destiny and was the best team in baseball for most of the year. The 2007 squad SUCKED for a lot of that season and the real collapse happened in June and July rather than in September. They were never good enough to beat those other playoff teams in October of 2007.

soupcan Sep 11 2008 08:59 AM

I was at a little league practice with my son and was checking the score on my BlackBerry. We were so looking forward to going home and watching the rest of the game after practice. By the time the practice was over so were the Mets. Such a blow because wasn't Maine's 1-hitter the day before? He gave us so much hope that the bleeding had finally stopped and then that douchebag Glavine...

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 08:59 AM

To me, the loss to the Cardinals was the start of the '07 doldrums -- really, from that September on, the offense was complete shit. History will show the Willie randolph Era peaked on July 30, 2006 when Duaner Sanchez went out for tacos.

metirish Sep 11 2008 09:06 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 11 2008 09:13 AM

I remember several times my wife getting upset with me for getting her into Mets baseball , " how can you watch this , it's heartbreaking".....watching the game last night she was all excited at the end and wanted to go see a game. Even my wife commented last night that there is a different feeling now with tis team than last September.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 09:08 AM

I'm pretty sure I was the first to use the C-word (not the one that Fman uses) in this forum. http://archives.cranepoolforum.net/7300/f14_t7390.shtml I see I actually took "credit" for it in the final post! What kicked off my dread reflex was the way the Mets played the day before in the final game against the Phillies. They were playing like they were afraid to lose. But even though I saw it coming, I think, deep down, that I believed they would turn it around before it was too late. I had, like others, little hope that they'd go far in the playoffs, but I really wanted them to at least get that division title.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 09:24 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 11 2008 09:43 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Wasn't the Marlon Anderson triple game against Florida? (I may be confusing my Marlins with my Marlons.) I think that was the same game when Willie made his panic move, pulling Feliciano after one walk with a three-run lead. That was the game when I became irrevocably opposed to his remaining as Mets manager. I remembered correctly. This was the game: http://www.ultimatemets.com/gamedetail.php?gameno=7384 The Mets were leading 7-4, Marlins batting in the bottom of the ninth. Feliciano opens the inning by allowing a single and Willie pulls him for Sosa, and leaves Sosa in to give up a double, a ground ball out, and two more singles before getting the second and third outs. That quick hook just killed me. It sent a message of panic to me, and, I suspect, to the team. The Mets, though, did go on to win their next three games. And in the third of those games, when Delgado hit a three-run homer, I thought that they had turned things around. That three-game winning streak was followed by five consecutive losses at Shea. (Three to Washington, one to St. Louis, and one to the Cardinals.) Maine then pitched his famous gem in the second-to-last game of the season and turned things over to Glavine for the final game...

AG/DC Sep 11 2008 09:33 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: That quick hook just killed me. It sent a message of panic to me, and, I suspect, to the team. You've said that before, and maybe so, but Manuel has been crazy with the quickhook, with some success, of late.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 09:36 AM

I know he's made a few that did remind me of the one with Feliciano last year, but I didn't get the sense that it came from panic. I suppose it was a different situation. Or, of course, it had something to do with MY frame of mind at the time. Our perceptions are based on a mixture of what we see and what we're feeling at the time.

metsguyinmichigan Sep 11 2008 09:37 AM

Yup, that was the game. The Fish, of course. What a punch in the gut to come back like that then blow it again. What's interesting to me looking at the box score is that 10 of those players in that game are ex-Mets now -- not counting the assorted ex-Mets on the Marlins at the time.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 09:45 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I remembered correctly. This was the game: http://www.ultimatemets.com/gamedetail.php?gameno=7384 The Mets were leading 7-4, Marlins batting in the bottom of the ninth. Feliciano opens the inning by allowing a single and Willie pulls him for Sosa, and leaves Sosa in to give up a double, a ground ball out, and two more singles before getting the second and third outs. That quick hook just killed me. It sent a message of panic to me, and, I suspect, to the team. What was crazy was that he did that knowing (or not knowing?!?) Wagner would be unavailable. This was the Wagner-isn't-available game. Wags either forgot to tell Willie, or did and Willie forgot, or something. But I hated Wagner after this game as I recall it. Glavine too, since he made a mess of his start. Gonna find the thread and relive the pain.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 09:47 AM

[url]http://archives.cranepoolforum.net/7400/f14_t7431.shtml[/url]

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 09:58 AM

Wow. I had completely forgotten that a David Wright error set them up. But look at all the prescient things we say!

AG/DC Sep 11 2008 10:04 AM

Zvon wrote: I'll trust Schoenweis for one batter. One batter.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 10:13 AM

The other crazy thing that night was the Phillies concurrently overcoming a 6-0 deficit and winning. That's the other thng about the Collapse. It was a big failure on our part to be sure, but easy to forget the Phillies had to play almost as good as we played bad to take it, and they did.

metirish Sep 11 2008 10:14 AM

I'm shattered all over again after reading that IGT.

themetfairy Sep 11 2008 10:18 AM

I remember having to make myself go to the supermarket the next day. The place is full of MFY fans and Phillies phans, and whenever I go there I meet at least four or five people who want to talk baseball with me. I don't want to be there October 1st, but I went - I didn't want them to think I was a wimp. To their credit, none of them gave me a hard time about the collapse. It did make me feel better when we were all in the same elimination boat a few days later.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 10:23 AM

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The other crazy thing that night was the Phillies concurrently overcoming a 6-0 deficit and winning. That's the other thng about the Collapse. It was a big failure on our part to be sure, but easy to forget the Phillies had to play almost as good as we played bad to take it, and they did. Yes, that's why it was all so unlikely. The Mets had to fall apart, and the Phillies had to take full advantage of it. While the Mets were finishing the season 5-12, the Phillies were going 13-4. Had the Mets gone a mere 7-10, they still would have won the division. And even with the 5-12, if the Phillies had gone 11-6, they still wouldn't have caught the Mets. So it's fair to say that the Phillies won it as much as the Mets lost it.

Centerfield Sep 11 2008 10:58 AM

I had no confidence in the 2007 team, either to make the playoffs, or to do anything when they reached it.

holychicken Sep 11 2008 12:00 PM

This thread has taken over as worst thread ever, IMO. I successfully drank away all memories of the collapse on the last day of the season and now you all are dredging them back up. I won't be able to sleep until the Mets clinch. . .if they even do. I think I am going to go cry.

bmfc1 Sep 11 2008 12:30 PM

No! This shows that we're looking at last year head on and saying "F U!" As has been said many times today, the Mets have half the lead they had last year at this time but we're twice as confident. Jerry said that he liked when people brought it up because it shows that the team isn't afraid of repeating what happened. Next week, I will walk into Nats Park, undoubtedly be flooded with the awful memories of the two games I attended at RFK last September, and say "NO WAY!" [u:c4a3d0a946]Bring on the magic numbers![/u:c4a3d0a946]

Fman99 Sep 11 2008 01:07 PM

themetfairy wrote: It did make me feel better when we were all in the same elimination boat a few days later. I agree. Once the Phils/MFYs were knocked out I went right back to being able to watch baseball. I enjoyed the fact that the Phillies won the same number of playoff games as we did last year.

G-Fafif Sep 11 2008 01:20 PM

If the following hadn't been written by me on September 13, 2007, I couldn't make it up now. Prescience is not my bag, baby. ]There are dumb quotes... "Three-and-a-half-game lead and all, the key numbers are these: six games left against Atlanta and 42 against everybody else. The Mets are advised to kick the ever-lovin' spit out of everybody else in those other 42 in order to secure their second consecutive Eastern Division title and another shot at the belt because I have no confidence, none, that they'll handle the Braves in the other six. Not after four series comprised of one win and two losses every time. I thought we buried this bullshit last year. Apparently we have not." —Me, August 9, in a Willie Harris-inspired snit ...and there are smart quotes: "I've run out of things to say. We're not as good as them. They've won every game against us they had to win. That's why they're where they are. We have to find a way to win these close games, and I am talking about next year as well as the next couple of weeks." —John Smoltz, September 12, in a Met-inspired snit Always use smart quotes. Yeah, I would say I was pretty wrong about these Mets and their ability to pick themselves up, dust themselves off and start all over again following the fourth consecutive Braves series that they lost 2-1. I think I was in that Randy Quaid Major League II (not the good one) mode, where he plays the superloyal Indian fan who drowns out all mounting Tribe criticism with supportive, rationalizing blather until he finally reaches his breaking point and completely turns on his team. I didn't see 2007's Met-Brave dynamic as any more than a faint echo of its Coxian worst until Harris leapt and stole Delgado's ninth-inning, game-tying homer five long weeks ago and unleashed some seething demons of distress. Then and only then was I willing to give in to that old chestnut that we'll never beat the Braves when it counts, woe is us and that whole pile of self-pitying shaving cream Mets fans occasionally like to leap into. Met-a culpa. I take it back. I take it back with a grin that reaches from here high atop the National League East to however far out Smoltz and his teammates sit and stew in the doughy middle of this division. I don't ever like to statistically dismiss any opponent who has enough games left with us to uncomfortably close a gap on us. The Braves have no games left with us. They're 9-1/2 back, primarily a function of their losing five of the six head-to-head chances they had to gain on us since August 31. I do believe I've washed the shaving cream off my face and my hands of them for another season. Floss will take care of that delicious plate of crow I just enjoyed. As we gloat, the Phillies are seven behind the Mets, which isn't just formidable, it's a hoot. Remember that when the Mets were going through one of their modestly competent stretches in their summer of stumbling around, they managed to boost their first-place margin to a surprising seven on August 25. It was almost too soon for this recurrently beleaguered cast of characters to pull away. Indeed, they lost the next night to David Wells and then hit the Turnpike for four more defeats. Since then? A nicely done 10-2. The Phillies? Who cares? We're seven games in front, for the love of Pete Incaviglia. That means that even by sweeping us four — three of them with the force of a red-hot poker — the Philadelphians have picked up no ground on us. None! While we were ten-and-twoing, they've been five-and-sevening. What a waste of evil. They have one left with the thunderous Rockies today and then come here for three. I like to run the worst-case scenarios before every series. Phillies win today and then find their inner pokers and brooms, they will sit 3-1/2 back with two weeks to go. That's a pretty unlikely worst-case scenario, but even if it were to come to pass, there would still be the matter of those 3-1/2. I won't rest until we're not swept this weekend — and maybe with one eye open then — but we're in pretty good shape, according to the Metropolitan Department of Understatement. Y'know what's been particularly gratifying about the recent spurt of quality New York Mets baseball? The way it's been achieved. The last four victories have been posted by scores of 3-1, 4-1, 3-2 and 4-3. It's just been so gosh darn sturdy, a bullpen hiccup here or LOB there notwithstanding. The starting's been solid. The defense, except for the occasional pop fly to deep short/shallow center, has been airtight. There have been just enough big hits to make these wins seem a lot wider than they appear. Nothing wrong with a sprawling victory (unless you're Keith Hernandez), but these have been so...pleasant to watch. Beltran Wednesday night in the eighth was a gunning, running clinic along the basepaths. He probably won't receive more than a token MVP point or two, but — due respect to the vitaminwater Kid — Carlos is by his presence the most valuable Met at any given moment. When he does his Beltran best, we win. Shawn Green (L'Shawn-ah Tovah!) is treating September like it followed on the heels of May, like his dreadful post-foot problems didn't happen or at least healed; I do think a little competition for playing time did his soul good. Marlon Anderson is the best second-half spot player this team has picked up since, geez, maybe ever. Alou...Milledge...the revitalized Reyes...the undeniable David...everybody's been doing something helpful at least every couple of days. I'm almost willing to give Mota a pass because he battled Francoeur so gamely, but mostly I'm willing to give Mota a pass to sit in the stands come October. At Shea. Where else, barring horrific circumstances even I'm having a hard time imagining, would the N.L. East champ be playing its home playoff games?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 01:25 PM

I think this is all very therapeutic. I just hope this doesn't happen again! Sometimes the other shoe does drop, you know.

metirish Sep 11 2008 01:29 PM

I like that Manuel is not afraid to talk about it , this should be required reading for the Mets and their fans. I hear that Fred Wilpon will be on Oprah tomorrow .

DocTee Sep 11 2008 01:47 PM

A thread with this title, on this day, that refers to anything other than the fall of the twin towers, is in poor taste.

soupcan Sep 11 2008 01:54 PM

="DocTee"]A thread with this title, on this day, that refers to anything other than the fall of the twin towers, is in poor taste. You know - I was thinking about saying something but, it's just us and we're not a callous group of people. It was not meant as an affront or to disrespect the memory.

Gwreck Sep 11 2008 02:07 PM

1. It's in the baseball forum, not the non-baseball forum. 2. Around the Mets, "the collapse" is a pretty well-understood term for September 2007. 3. I've never heard anyone refer to any of events of 9/11/01 as "the collapse" with any regularity.

metirish Sep 11 2008 02:10 PM

Is this a joke? , I have never heard 9/11 referred to as the "the collapse".

holychicken Sep 11 2008 02:13 PM

metirish wrote: I like that Manuel is not afraid to talk about it , this should be required reading for the Mets and their fans. I am reading it, but I feel like I am repeatedly whipping myself on the back. (not necessarily directed at you, irish) I understand that this year is different, I am pretty sure I noted in an earlier thread about current confidence saying something like, "I was more confident last year that we would make the playoffs, but I feel better about this team than I did about the team last year (at that time)." It is just that this season is long from over. As frayed (I believe) said in the other thread, we were playing hot right before the final collapse last year . . . This is baseball and, as we learned the hard way last year, anything can happen. All this thread does is make me feel nervous like I did last year. And that is why it gets my vote for worst thread ever.

holychicken Sep 11 2008 02:15 PM

metirish wrote: Is this a joke? , I have never heard 9/11 referred to as the "the collapse". This. 9/11 is 9/11. I have never heard it referred to as anything else.

DocTee Sep 11 2008 02:16 PM

When I see the date, and the word "collapse" one thing comes to mind, whether it's in a baseball forum or elsewhere. Call me hypersensitive, if you want. I don't think it was done with any bad intent, but it's a bit unsettling.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 11 2008 02:18 PM

Sorry. Wasn't the intent.

G-Fafif Sep 11 2008 02:20 PM

Paraphrasing from memory here, but somebody in the Voice covering the ecstasy-laden 2002 Division Series loss by the Yankees to the Angels referred to Yankee pitching as having "collapsed like...(too soon?)" Yes, I thought. Too soon. Always would be too soon. "Our" collapse, on the other hand, is practically trademarked and tasteproofed by context. Never occurred to me last year when the word gained currency (over the more mundane choke) that it had anything to do with more serious matters. Nor did it today of all days. For what it's worth, seven years ago today, I never thought I'd take something as piddling as blowing a division title in 2-1/2 weeks as a tragedy. Funny how that works if you're lucky.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 02:25 PM

Well, context is everything. It was a tragedy in a baseball-fan sense. It didn't otherwise affect my life, although I was a bit jittery for a couple of weeks there. By October 1 it was just an unpleasant memory. But now I'm getting the deja vu feeling, so I'm more jittery than I would be otherwise about the Mets.