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Bailout prediction

AG/DC
Sep 26 2008 10:12 AM
Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Sep 30 2008 06:02 AM

  1. When will it come through? (At what hour on what day?)


  2. What will be the headline figure? 800 bills? 900? A trillion?!


  3. What will be the private captial figure?


  4. Will there be some sort of executive compensation cap? (I'm not sure there can be legally, but they may sew one into the package anyhow.)


  5. How many more big financial instituions will fail, get taken over by the gov, or get gobbled up before the deal breaks?


  6. Who will CNN frame as the central figure when this comes to pass? Paulson? Bush? Boehner? Frank? Pelosi? McBama? Dodd? Bachus? Bernanke? Alan Greesnpan on a white horse?


  7. What will be the Dow Jones industrial average (currently 10,940.43) be at the time of the announcement?


  8. Where will it be at the end of the next trading day?


  9. Will the debate start on time?


  10. Will they stick to the domestic financial situation?

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Sep 26 2008 10:35 AM

I have no idea over the datyes and numbers and all, but from what I've read its only a matter of time before Wachovia goes insolvent: They've got their waterskis on and are approaching the ramp.

I think a giant US manufacturing concern, like say, Ford, wrecking would be an interesting component.

I would hope this puts the obvious widening division between haves and have-nots and the pressure that brought on the have-nots to live beyond their means and get swept up in the influence of the haves (housing prices out of control, $200 jeans, luxury SUVs etc etc) into some perspective.

AG/DC
Sep 26 2008 10:55 AM

Ford's vulnerable, but I would expect an overseas automaker to swoop in and buy them low. I mean, their assets are still their factories and their brand, and their raw goods like steel and rubber, right? It's not like they're laden down up with bad mortagages, just bad marketing and stupid models.

Clearly, I can only pretend to understand this all. Maybe a pharmagiant or an agrigiant would fall first (which could be wonderful or could be disatastrous).

seawolf17
Sep 26 2008 01:42 PM

Can they bail out my credit card bills, too? That would really help my personal economy.

Farmer Ted
Sep 26 2008 01:55 PM

My economic stimulus package went to buying heating oil which doubled in price from last year. I wasn't too stimulated after that. Fuckers.


Bailout by Monday. From reading various pubs, it looks like that first bailout package was junk and whatever the house GOPers conjur up is likley to pass. Their sticking point was loans not cash.

AG/DC
Sep 29 2008 01:08 PM

Fucking bill failed again. Dow goes kaput.

metirish
Sep 29 2008 01:16 PM

I'm happy it failed to get passed , I have read plenty and watched plenty and was not convinced by any pro bailout types that it would work.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Sep 29 2008 01:32 PM

I'm thinking the thing would probably have done better were Bush out there making speeches against it.

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Sep 30 2008 04:17 AM

All the international markets took a huge drop as they opened last night, but they've all bounced back (except the Nikkei).

cooby
Sep 30 2008 06:27 PM

.

metirish
Oct 01 2008 07:04 AM

The Irish Government taking extraordinary measures to secure the situation in Ireland.



]

What has the Government just done?

It has guaranteed the deposits in the six Irish-owned banks and building societies, as well as all their borrowings, for two years.

The guarantee is being provided at a charge, as yet unspecified, to the banks and will be subject to terms and conditions, also unspecified.

Why is the Government taking this action?

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan says the measure is designed to safeguard the Irish financial system. Banks have been falling like dominoes in the US and Europe in recent weeks, and many observers felt the contagion would spread to Ireland.

Large overseas investors, concerned about the stability of the Irish banking system, were withdrawing funds, while hedge funds involved in short-selling had a vested interest in seeing Irish bank stocks fall until the practice was banned almost two weeks ago. By guaranteeing the debts of the Irish-owned banks and building societies, the Government believes it will make it easier for them to raise money.

This will take a huge amount of pressure off these lenders as the funding markets where they raise money have closed in recent weeks due to financial turmoil.

Mr Lenihan has warned that we cannot afford to let the "financial bloodstream" of the State dry up. "Were liquidity to dry up in the Irish banking system in the weeks ahead, the inevitable result would be economic catastrophe for this country."

What are the risks involved?

Mr Lenihan says he does not see a hazard or exposure arising from his decision. However, the total liabilities of the banks come to €400 billion and their assets stand at €500 billion, sums that dwarf the Irish economy. If the banks were all to collapse, the amounts involved would make the current budget deficit of about €7 billion seem minuscule.


When does it take effect?

The Government was last night seeking to rush the necessary legislation through the Oireachtas.

What banks are covered?

The guarantee covers Bank of Ireland, AIB, Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Life and Permanent, Irish Nationwide Building Society and the Educational Building Society.

All deposits in these banks are guaranteed by the Government. Subsidiaries of the six lenders can be included in the guarantee following consultation with the Central Bank. The guarantee also covers any deposit-taking businesses fully owned by these lenders, including Bank of Ireland's joint venture with the Post Office in the UK.

How does yesterday's announcement differ from the Deposit Protection Scheme introduced two weeks ago?

That scheme provides up to €100,000 compensation to depositors if a credit institution goes bust. The new guarantee covers all deposits in the six institutions concerned.

Are the loans to property developers and builders covered?

No. Only the six banks' own debts to investors, holders of bonds and other financial institutions are guaranteed.

Which bank offers the best protection for my money?

The Government guarantees all deposits with the six banks. Savings with the Post Office (not Postbank) are also 100 per cent guaranteed to any limit.

Savings at the following institutions are guaranteed up to €100,000 under the Deposit Protection Scheme: ACC Bank, Halifax [owned by Bank of Scotland (Ireland)], National Irish Bank (owned by Danske Bank), First Active, ICS Building Society (owned by Bank of Ireland), IIB Bank, Pfizer International Bank Europe, Postbank (owned by An Post and Fortis), Ulster Bank, and the credit unions.

The following foreign-owned banks are subject to the deposit protection schemes of the countries in which they are headquartered: Rabobank (subject to the Dutch compensation scheme of 100 per cent of the first €20,000 and 90 per cent of the next €20,000), Investec Bank (UK) and Leeds Building Society (subject to the British scheme of 100 per cent compensation for the first €35,000) and Northern Rock (all deposits guaranteed by the Bank of England since it was nationalised last year).

Who is going to pay for the guarantee?

Initially, the banks, which will be charged commercial rates. Ultimately, though, at least some of the costs are likely to be passed on to the consumer. Irish banks and building societies have been passing on their higher funding costs to customers.

Compiled by Paul Cullen and Simon Carswell



http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1001/1222724599017.html
© 2008 The Irish Times

AG/DC
Oct 01 2008 07:11 AM

Banks haven't been falling like dominoes.

Not yet, anyway.

AG/DC
Oct 03 2008 11:44 AM

Answers:

  1. October 3 at 1:30.

  2. Stays at $700 billion.

  3. No reports of congress extracting money from the private sector. They made up the last dozen votes by adding those hated earmarks, and strange targeted tax benefits for odd industries --- a type of earmark.

  4. No way.

  5. Did anybody fall in the interim.

  6. Nobody is being framed as the heroes --- and none should be --- but I guess Boehner and Blunt were the big players down the stretch.
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  7. 10,596.74.

  8. To be announced.

  9. It was on time, but both candidates seemed more out-of-focus than usual.

  10. They devoted about one third to domestic finances. Both stuck to their prepared talking points and rhetorical devices --- Main Street vs. Wall Street, blah-blah-blah.