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Left Field 2009

Centerfield Sep 29 2008 08:52 AM

Left Field (along with a starting pitcher if Oliver Perez bolts) is one of the two spots the Mets must absolutely attend to this off-season. I have doubts that Delgado will repeat the success he had this year, and this position is probably our best chance of getting a middle-of-the-order guy. I guess a good place to begin is the free agent crop: Bobby Abreu NYY Moises Alou NYM Garret Anderson* LAA Rocco Baldelli TB Willie Bloomquist SEA Emil Brown OAK Pat Burrell PHI Endy Chavez NYM Adam Dunn ARI Jim Edmonds CHC Cliff Floyd TB Brian Giles* SD Ken Griffey Jr.* CWS Vladimir Guerrero* LAA Raul Ibanez SEA Mark Kotsay ATL Jason Michaels* PIT Greg Norton ATL Jay Payton BAL Scott Podsednik COL Manny Ramirez LAD Juan Rivera LAA (*denotes an option) With the Angels likely to pick up Vlad's option, Manny is obviously the cream of this crop, but he is looking for a multi-year deal at 37.

sharpie Sep 29 2008 08:53 AM

I'd vote Ibanez. He's local and he puts up good numbers year after year. Plus, he played in 162 games this year, 159 two years ago.

metirish Sep 29 2008 08:54 AM

A mostly sorry looking bunch.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2008 09:03 AM

If, over the winter, Daniel Murphy shows that he's NOT a second baseman, then he needs to be in the mix for left field. Hopefully it won't come to that.

AG/DC Sep 29 2008 09:04 AM

Nothing sorry about Pat Burrell. A damn consistent man for the last four years. GP: 154, 144, 155, 157 OPS+: 128, 122, 127, 123

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2008 09:09 AM

I've always seen him as a future Met. My crystal ball has told me that he'd become a Met some time around age 38.

Vic Sage Sep 29 2008 09:31 AM

yeah, except there is a guy on that list who is 28, has hit 40+ hrs the last 5 seasons, with a career OPS+ of 130. Burrell, is 32, hits 30+ hrs (in a good year), and has a lower OB%, SLG% and OPS+ (119). so why no love for Adam Dunn? Don't talk to me about Ks, unless your willing to talk about his BBs.

Valadius Sep 29 2008 09:37 AM

Why no love for Adam Dunn? His batting average leaves something to be desired.

metirish Sep 29 2008 09:37 AM

Dunn Burrell Ibanez I can see Minaya going hard after Dunn.

metirish Sep 29 2008 09:37 AM

Valadius wrote: Why no love for Adam Dunn? His batting average leaves something to be desired. Oh no you didn't............

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2008 09:38 AM

Dunn is only 28? Wow. They're nuts if they don't at least talk to him.

Vic Sage Sep 29 2008 09:40 AM

Oh, and Ibanez will be 37 next June, with inferior numbers to Dunn in all the above-refenced categories.

Vic Sage Sep 29 2008 09:41 AM

Batting average? seriously? seriously??

Valadius Sep 29 2008 09:47 AM

Yes, seriously. You know why batting average is so important? It impacts whether or not or how much you move the runners on base. A walk moves a runner over one base. A hit potentially moves them over two or more. Also, note the fact that his doubles totals are relatively atrocious for a guy with his homer power. And note his relatively low total bases numbers the last three years.

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2008 09:49 AM

One of the (non-statistical) knocks on Dunn was that he never seemed real interested in baseball. He grew up in football country in east Texas and, despite scholarship offers as a QB, drifted in baseball simply because it was something he was real good at, but remained more interested in humting, fishing and football. He's a talented player with real assets but never seemed to get better at anything at least partly, it's thought, because he wasn't putting the work in. Supposedly the trade from the dullness of the Reds in Cincy into a real pennant race in Arizona woke him up and "they" say his attitude was rejuvenated and he now sees what he's been missing. A contending team who snaps him up and puts him in a good situation surrounded by some good players might, just might mind you, be catchng a real good wave rgiht on the brink.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2008 09:49 AM

Valadius wrote: Why no love for Adam Dunn? His batting average leaves something to be desired. So does Ryan Howard's, but he seemed to help the Phillies a little bit. Dunn Batting: .243 OBP: .417 Slg: .472 Howard Batting: .251 OBP: .339 Slg: .543

metirish Sep 29 2008 09:56 AM

Without doing a lot of research Dunn's 2b hits are comparable to other power hitters like Piazza , Howard and Burrell.

AG/DC Sep 29 2008 09:57 AM

I agree that singles are better than walks, but three hatfuls of walks are better than two hatfuls of singles.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 29 2008 10:00 AM

When a guy's got 40 homers, every year, its ridiculous to complain about about his dearth of doubles. What do you want, he hits his home runs less far?

Vic Sage Sep 29 2008 10:14 AM

dunn (162g avg) = 554ab /100r /40hr / 96rbi/ 114bb /180k / .247ba / .381 ob/ .518 slg 130 ops+/ 287 TB/ 137h / 29 2b /1 3b / 8 gdp his dearth of triples is also quite damning.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 29 2008 10:26 AM

AG/DC wrote: I agree that singles are better than walks, but three hatfuls of walks are better than two hatfuls of singles. This is a neat way to sum up Dunn's abilities. The key to an offense is not to make outs. That's it. Only after the batter doesn't make an out in the first instance, is it meaningful to debate whether a home run is better than two doubles or whether you'd prefer one triple over two singles and a walks. Because anything is preferable over an out. Dunn is one of the least likeliest batters to make an out; By that crucial measure, he's one of baseball's best hitters. I'd always find room on my team for a guy who on bases close to .400 every single season, even if he couldn't hit any homeruns. Throw in Dunn's 40/HR's a season (five years running) and Dunn's a no-brainer.

soupcan Sep 29 2008 10:35 AM

metirish wrote: ="Valadius"]Why no love for Adam Dunn? His batting average leaves something to be desired. Oh no you didn't............ Echoing irish. I walked this plank here with RBIs a year or so back and got bitch-slapped.

DocTee Sep 29 2008 10:36 AM

FK's analysis of Dunn reminds me of another Met LF, Kevin McReynolds.

AG/DC Sep 29 2008 10:37 AM

Wow. I could hear Vic's head exploding in Manhattan from here.

soupcan Sep 29 2008 10:39 AM

soupcan wrote: Echoing irish. 'p'Unintentional by the way.

metirish Sep 29 2008 10:43 AM

soupcan wrote: soupcan wrote: Echoing irish. 'p'Unintentional by the way. Funny..... Fro those not in the know......Irish Echo is a newspaper over here..

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2008 10:44 AM

]FK's analysis of Dunn reminds me of another Met LF, Kevin McReynolds. In some ways maybe, although McReynolds was a better all-around player and always played hard while he was on the field. Dunn's biggest drawback isn't BA it's that he's an atrocious outfielder who also had no interest in moving to 1B when Cincy was overstocked with OFers a few years back. And, again, part of the rumored problem is that he did little work to improve on it, preferring to do nothing more than to take his 4 hacks (or 16 balls) a game and go home. Maybe that's on the verge of changing.

Centerfield Sep 29 2008 10:57 AM

The drawback from these swing and miss guys is that they're less likely to drive a run in from third with one out, but on the plus side, he's much more likely than the average guy to drive in the runner from first with two outs. Some interesting stats on Dunn. We rave about Delgado's MVP-type year (.871 OPS). Dunn beats him in OPS (.898). Dunn also beats Beltran (.876) as well as Ryan Howard (.881). Of all Mets, only David Wright has the edge on him OPS-wise (.924), and David does this by outslugging him. David has fewer HR's but nearly twice as many doubles. ON EDIT: Of course, you have to adjust for park with these numbers, which I don't know how to do, but just being in the mix with our three best players should mean something.

mario25 Sep 29 2008 11:41 AM

I say Adam Dunn would be a great Mets LF. Pat the Bat can eat my shat...

AG/DC Sep 29 2008 11:45 AM

I would have gone with "scat." "Left Field 2009" sounds like a dimension in a pitcher friendly park.

Gwreck Sep 29 2008 11:48 AM

Not yet mentioned in this thread: Fernando Tatis Angel Pagan Nick Evans

duan Sep 29 2008 11:56 AM

Tatis ain't gonna have another season like that, but I've no problem with him in the $2-3 million range as a 4th OF/PH/Spot Starter. If someone gets silly and offers him loads, or a 3 year deal let them off. 2 years I'd be worried about but at the right price I'd think about it. Evans needs a lot more work. Angel Pagan is Endy but with more power potential and less actual track record. Now, the one person who could fit nicely in our oft injured but heck of a hitter when fit Left Fielder model, (witness Floyd, Cliff & Alou, Moises) is Milton Bradley. If we're keeping Jerry Manuel, I think he can bring him in to be gangsta I think Milton would love New York.

OlerudOwned Sep 29 2008 12:16 PM

I still think we could get creative with Dunn and make him our #2 hitter. He's always at the top of the league in pitches faced/AB, so Reyes will have plenty of chances to run. He'd get more fastballs because of Reyes' speed and because he'd have Wright/Delgado/Beltran/Church behind him, meaning he'd probably make some more contact. And no sac bunts!

mario25 Sep 29 2008 12:50 PM

Tatis and Pagan can be bench guys, Evans I feel needs some more time at AAA.... Adam Dunn would be nice in the lineup with Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Church, Reyes...etc etc

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2008 01:02 PM

I'd have Evans at Buffalo and groom him to be a possible replacement for Delgado in 2010.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Sep 29 2008 01:12 PM

I'm okay without signing or trading for anyone for left field. If the Mets are gonna bring back Delgado for 09 (I think they will), then the Mets can go with a Murphy/Evans time share. After 09, the Mets should also have Fartinez and Carp available as options at first and left, with Flores and Davis right behind them. With all the young, talented, position-less hitters the Mets have in the farm system, I think they should look to save money in left and at first while spending it elsewhere. That said, Dunn's the best of the FA's and will probably be available for less than what he's worth due to all the batting average fetishists in baseball.

metsmarathon Sep 29 2008 01:53 PM

as i was clicking away on baseball prospectus one day, i happened upon their statistics page, and clicked on RBI opportunities, or some such. in 2008, with arizona, adam dunn converted a runner on third into an RBI only 23.8% of the time; with cincinnati, dunn converted a runner on third into an RBI only 32.1% of the time. in total, with 77 runners on third base in 2008, adam dunn delivered 23 rbi, or 29.9% of the time. in 2007, with cincy, dunn delivered a 34.7% rate in 2006, dunn delivered a 25.8% rate in 2005, dunn delivered a 27% rate (disclaimer - the statements i'm about to post are somewhat flawed in that they are knowingly inaccurate. i'm using bp's data, but it doesnt combine seasons when a player splits time between two teams. so when i apply a cutoff of, say, 500 plate appearances, its really just those players who had 500+ plate appearances with one team, and not for the entire season. this shouldn't affect any relative comparisons made too badly) focusing on his 2008 season, adam dunn ranked at about 127th among 140 major leaguers with 500+ PA, in terms of driving in runners from third. interestingly enough, he ranks just behind pat burrell, who had a 30.0% conversion rate. for comparison, that's worse than any met regular. allow me to rattle off a few names here: easley 46.8% castillo 44.2% - wow! church 43.6% wright 41.7% reyes 41.5% delgado 41.2% schneider 40.5% tatis 40.5% beltran 37.8% chavez 20.0% - wow! the mets were actually pretty good at driving in runners from third base. if i look at those batters with more than 200 plate appearances (because its how i culled my data), the mets ranked 5th in the league, driving in that runner on third 40.34% of the time! only the twins, yankees, tigers, and white sox did better! among the playoff teams, the angels were 6th, boston 8th, cubs 10th, dodgers 19th, phillies 28th, and brewers 29th. so... as disappointing as it was this past week, perhaps driving in runners from third isn't this team's biggest offensive problem...? also, for some guys, these percentages seem to hold fairly steady. for some, there's a lot of fluctuation. i'm not sure how repeatable they are, or how well they correlate to other statistics, etc. is driving in runners from third a repeatable skill, i haven't a clue. is doing it well just a byproduct of being a contact hitter, or a fly ball hitter, or a violent hacker, i have no clue. but luis castillo was really good at it, and endy was really bad at it this year. and adam dunn doesn't seem to be terribly good at it, but he may just be letting the pitcher pitch around him - i haven't a clue.

HahnSolo Sep 29 2008 02:14 PM

OK, but neither Easley, Castillo, Church, Tatis, nor Endy had 500+ plate appearances. So overall as a team they were good, but it's a little unfair to list those guys when comparing with Adam Dunn.

AG/DC Sep 29 2008 02:19 PM

Is the denominator AB or PA?

metsmarathon Sep 29 2008 02:31 PM

yeah, the comparison to the irregulars was unfair to an extent. but moreso to compare his actual performance to what our perception of the mets' own performance might be. then i went off track comparing the mets to other teams, cos i found it interesting. the denominator is plate appearances. per BP: ]R1 Runner on first. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times a batter came to the plate with a runner at first base. they do the same for R2 and R3 (runner on first, or runner on second) i'm guessing dunn does so poorly in this statistical regard because he takes a lot of walks. bp doesnt show that on their page, but his OBP is much higher with runners on than with the bases empty, per espn's split stats.

AG/DC Sep 29 2008 02:39 PM

Which is part of a side-effect of being a slugger. Sammy Sosa won two MVP votes in 2001, despite Barry Bonds re-writing the record book. Part of those two writers' argument was that Bonds may have hit an absurd 73 homers, but, by golly, they were mostly solo shots, as he only had 137 RBI. It's because he didn't get pitched to at all. It's not like the runs he didn't drive in all went unscored. Or that he didn't create more run opportunities by walking.

metsmarathon Sep 29 2008 02:44 PM

'twasn't my point at all. if i have a point, i think its that i wish bp included walk totals in their rbi opportunity stat sheets.