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Frayed Knot
Oct 18 2008 08:09 AM

Might as well get it out there since Sandy Eggo has publicly said that they're listening to offers for [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/peavyja01.shtml]Jake Peavy[/url].

Kind of an odd situation in that they're seeking to trade someone before his new contract extension even begins. He inked a new deal last December that tacked onto the 2009 option already picked up.
So he's signed thru 2012, plus a club option for 2013
2009: $8M; 2010: $15M; 2011: $16M; 2012: $17M; 2013: $22M club option ($4M buyout)

So why are they dealing the 2007 CY winner who doesn't turn 28 until next season and is signed for not-outrageos money?
A couple of reasons:
1) they're looking to revamp and restock the team after the disaster that was 2008
2) the SD owner is going through a divorce and money is suddenly an issue for that reason.
So while the team is under no obligation to deal him, conventional wisdom seems to think this is going to happen at some point this winter.

Why he's real unlikely to wind up here:
- Emptying the farm system for the 'best pitcher on the market' one season makes it tough for same team to deal for the 'BPotM' the next year. SD is obviously going to want the always popular package of young/good/cheap players in return
- Peavy also has full no-trade protection for now (partial in later years) and has a hand in directing where he goes.
- He's a southern boy (Mississippi) who reportedly isn't interested in the big eastern cities. His agent has already floated the Astros, Braves, Cards, Cubs, & Dodgers as favored destinations.


So while I certainly don't want to stop anyone from making up deals to get him, it'll probably all be just an exercise in futility.


P.S. He missed about half-dozen starts this season with what I believed was described as "tightness" in his pitching arm but has otherwise been a 30+ starts/200 IP guy for several years.

A Boy Named Seo
Oct 18 2008 09:50 AM

[url=http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/oct/17/padres-padsweb1718101/?padres]San Diego UT[/url]:

] “I would say our preference is pitching,” Towers said. “Probably next, it would be middle of the infield. Pitching more than anything. If we moved Jake, we'd look for controllable pitchers, preferably starters in a significant enough package to where some are major league ready and some are close to being major league ready.

“It's got to be something we're excited about short term and longer term that makes us better, and I'd say pitching is our primary focus. If we move Jake, we're down to (starting pitchers) Chris Young and Cha Seung Baek. We've got a lot of good young positional players.

“We're looking at pitching more than anything.”


I'm not sure what he's getting at, but I think he wants pitching.

Pelfrey, Niese, and Wilmer Flores.

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Oct 18 2008 10:12 AM

In Paul DePodesta's [url=http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/]blog[/url], he mentions the Mariners' success after losing Randy Johnson, A-Rod and Griffey. I think the Padres are looking for high-ceiling players that can contribute right away, of which the Mets have none that they should trade. I think Peavy may wind up in Atlanta.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Oct 18 2008 10:39 AM

Not a big Peavy fan.

A Boy Named Seo
Oct 18 2008 10:40 AM

I didn't know DePo had a blog. A cool one, too.

smg58
Oct 18 2008 11:09 AM

I'll be surprised if Peavy gets dealt before a few of the high-profile free agent pitchers sign. He's not the best pitcher on the market as long as C. C. is out there. And the durability issues that would apply to Sheets or A. J. Burnett apply to him as well. He's worth looking into, but I'd get a read on the free agent market before raiding the farm system again.

A Boy Named Seo
Oct 18 2008 11:41 AM

smg58 wrote:
I'll be surprised if Peavy gets dealt before a few of the high-profile free agent pitchers sign. He's not the best pitcher on the market as long as C. C. is out there. And the durability issues that would apply to Sheets or A. J. Burnett apply to him as well. He's worth looking into, but I'd get a read on the free agent market before raiding the farm system again.


Peavy's had 200+ innings and 30+ starts three of the last 4 years (173 IP and 27 starts last year). He's way more durable than either of those two, sez me.

Given his age, his already in-place contract, and his awesomeness, I'd make every effort to get him.

AG/DC
Oct 18 2008 12:21 PM

Being that Pelf has turned the corner on being an established major league starter, but still exhibits the lack of strikeouts that dissuades me from seeing much All Star action in his future, I'd say he's a dealable candidate in the same sense that, um, Walt Terrell was dealable.

Not advocating, just saying.

Frayed Knot
Oct 18 2008 03:04 PM

The other thing to consider is his very favorable home/road splits

Career Home: 2.37 ERA, 1.09 WHiP
Career Road: 3.90 ERA; 1.28 WHiP

SD is maybe the best place to pitch in the majors these days.
Now maybe moving to CitiField won't be as much of as a contrast as all that (assuming CF is the pitcher's park as promised) but it's something to consider.

A Boy Named Seo
Oct 21 2008 07:47 PM

Ken Rosenthal [url=http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8694142/Handicapping-the-Jake-Peavy-trade-market]guesses at stuff[/url].

]Mets. Definite interest on the club's part; the question, as with the Yankees, is whether Peavy would be willing to play in New York. The Mets could offer lefty Jon Niese or righty Robert Parnell, and the Padres no doubt would want Daniel Murphy, an impressive hitter who is defensively challenged.


It'd take more than that.

Wouldn't it?

metirish
Oct 21 2008 07:50 PM

Robert Parnell?

Them plus Martinez and whoever else.

smg58
Oct 22 2008 05:54 AM

Actually I remember reading somebody saying that Murphy had a positive +/- from the Fielding Bible, so that's already one misstatement.

Anybody who treats Niese and Parnell as equivalent prospects needs to pay more attention.

Plus, the Padres emphasized that they wanted pitching in return. Given that most of the league is rumored to be interested in Peavy, I would guess that Niese and Pelfrey would be necessary, but far from sufficient, inclusions. Among other things, that would still leave us with two rotation spots to fill.

Peavy is guaranteed $63M over the next four years. That's not crazy money, but it's enough that it needs to be factored in when weighing the cost of the players involved, especially considering that there are a lot of starters on the free agent market this year.

soupcan
Oct 22 2008 07:24 AM

]


PEAVY MAY BE HEADED TO ATLANTA
By JOEL SHERMAN

October 22, 2008 --

ST. PETERSBURG - The Jake Peavy sweepstakes will proceed concurrently with the World Series, and the expectation of major league executives polled over the past two days is that the Braves are going to end up with the Padre right-hander.

Several executives who have stayed abreast of the talks believe Peavy, who has a no-trade provision, prefers to go to the Astros, in part because his hunting buddy, Roy Oswalt, is already there. But Houston has a poor farm system and will have great difficulty delivering an acceptable package.

"Honestly, I have no idea how they put something together acceptable for the Padres," an AL executive said.

The Braves, on the other hand, have the base from which to make a deal and a history of packaging youngsters to get veterans they crave such as Mark Teixeira and Tim Hudson. They also are willing to move quickly, as exhibited by the Oct. 29 deal made last year in which they obtained Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez from Detroit for Edgar Renteria, the first major trade of the past offseason. And the Braves appear more motivated than the Cardinals, Cubs or Dodgers to jump out for Peavy.

"Don't discount the (Braves manager) Bobby Cox factor," an AL GM said. "He is a veteran manager. He is used to winning. His team hasn't made the playoffs for a few years now. He is influential in the organization. And he wants players who can win now. So I can see him really pushing to get a Peavy deal done."

The executives spoken to say they anticipate a Braves package being built around pitcher Tommy Hanson and outfielder Jordan Schafer, who both peaked at Double-A last year, plus a middle infielder, either shortstop Yunel Escobar or second baseman Kelly Johnson.

Another AL GM said, "That is really a good deal if San Diego can make it."

joel.sherman@nypost.com

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 07:31 AM

I like how Joel Sherman speaks of veterans the Braves "crave."

A Boy Named Seo
Oct 22 2008 10:15 AM

Peavy [url=http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-sppeavy205891694oct20,0,3951805.story]"hates New York" [/url]sez some guy who works for some team.



]
Mets, Yankees not likely to get Peavy

BY KEN DAVIDOFF | ken.davidoff@newsday.com
October 20, 2008

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees appear likely to pull off a trade for Padres ace Jake Peavy.

It appears increasingly likely that the Padres will trade Jake Peavy. But neither the Yankees nor the Mets rank among the favorites to land the 2007 National League Cy Young Award winner.

Peavy, armed with a no-trade clause, already has indicated to the Padres the teams to which he would accept a trade, agent Barry Axelrod told Newsday yesterday. He has a full no-trade clause and five years and $81 million left on his contract, assuming he insists that his new club pick up the $22-million team option for 2013.

"Jake strongly prefers the National League, and it would take major enticement to get him to agree to go to any American League club," Axelrod e-mailed. "He has obviously had a lot of success in the NL and feels very comfortable there. Also, he is a pretty good hitter, and he views that as an advantage.

"We have not been approached on any specific team, but have given the Padres an idea of the teams to which Jake would consider going. They are definitely being proactive on this and seem to really want to make it happen."

The Braves, Cardinals and Brewers are believed to be among the teams that both possess the young talent necessary to land Peavy, 27, and serve as appealing locales to the pitcher. He told the Houston Chronicle that he would approve a deal to the Astros to play with friend Roy Oswalt. But the Astros don't appear to have a strong enough farm system to pull off a Peavy deal.

The Padres think they could find a match with the Yankees in a Peavy trade, but Peavy's de facto exclusion of the AL takes the Yankees out of the equation, focusing them on free-agent targets such as CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe as they attempt to improve their rotation.

The Mets aren't a safe bet because a) they probably lack the young talent necessary, and b) one official from another team said this past week that Peavy, who was born and still lives in Alabama, "hates" New York anyway.

Axelrod, who lives in San Diego and is friendly with Padres general manager Kevin Towers, told Newsday on Oct. 3 that he thought the Padres would retain Peavy for the 2009 season. He now is less optimistic about that.

Staff writer Kat O'Brien contributed to this story.

HahnSolo
Oct 22 2008 10:21 AM

I've seen those two bolded statements so often regarding the Mets and players they might be chasing that I usually ignore it.

After all, We didn't have the young players to get Santana did we?

smg58
Oct 22 2008 10:29 AM

]The Mets aren't a safe bet because a) they probably lack the young talent necessary, and b) one official from another team said this past week that Peavy, who was born and still lives in Alabama, "hates" New York anyway.


You almost get the sense that Davidoff copied the first part of that sentence from an article he wrote about Santana last year.

As for the second part, well I guess we're supposed to assume that everybody from Alabama hates New York. And that the official from another team, assuming he really exists, knows Peavy well enough to say this. Or more likely, that said official is simply hoping that Peavy feels that way about New York because it would improve his own chances of landing him.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Oct 22 2008 11:10 AM

Peavy can smell my farts. I know his numbers look very good overall but I've never felt he was a superduper type. I know he got killed a couple of times in the playoffs, and he's not outstanding on the road.

metirish
Oct 22 2008 11:15 AM

I'm amazed at how many athletes apparently hate New York.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 11:29 AM

]Staff writer Kat O'Brien contributed to this story.

I refuse to queston any story where a contributing author has a devlishly alluring name like Kat O'Brien.

metsguyinmichigan
Oct 22 2008 11:31 AM

="metirish"]I'm amazed at how many athletes apparently hate New York.


Well, look at it this way. If you're an American League player yor only experience with New York is the Bronx, the Yankees, smelly Yankee fans. especially the ones who can only say, "Who ya think ya are? Jeta? Fuggetabout! You suck!"

Peavy, of course, played in the NL, so he is aware of the beauty that is Flushing Meadows Park, and probably thought to himself, "These knowledgable Mets fans aren't booing me, they're booing my hideous 'sand-colored' road uniforms," plus, "Hey, if my car ever broke down on my way to work, there are several hundred places right across the street where I can get parts."

It's just a matter of getting the potential players from the right places.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Oct 22 2008 11:33 AM


Meow

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 11:38 AM

My pet.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Oct 22 2008 11:39 AM

]Kat O'Brien has been covering the Yankees for Newsday since 2007. She has been on the baseball beat since 2003, and most recently covered the Texas Rangers for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Kat, an Iowa native, owns a bachelor's degree from the University of Notre Dame.


Maybe she can be your facebook friend

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 11:40 AM

An offseason CPF chat would be nice.