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="Centerfield":1f7hy82g]I don't know about K-Rod. His stuff is filthy, but the impression I get watching him is that he's got baserunners galore every inning. The numbers seem to support that too. Save record aside, his peripherals suggest Wagner was the better pitcher last year, and that he might not be any better than Fuentes.
Hard to figure out this bullpen is.[/quote:1f7hy82g]
Even if you're right about everything, K-Rod is still better than any current Met reliever.
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Edgy DC
Nov 14 2008 11:12 AM
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Yeah, but the choice is unlikely to be Rodriguez vs. Nobody, but rather Rodriguez vs. More-Bang-for-Your-Buck Alternative.
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Vic Sage
Nov 14 2008 11:16 AM
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I'd prefer they take a more creative course than simply writing the biggest check to the guy with the most saves currently available.
big bux closers make me nervous. And F-Rod's peripherals seem to be in somewhat of a decline, despite the saves.
There, i said it.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 14 2008 11:25 AM
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="Vic Sage":1sss3uk6]I'd prefer they take a more creative course than simply writing the biggest check to the guy with the most saves currently available.
big bux closers make me nervous. And F-Rod's peripherals seem to be in somewhat of a decline, despite the saves.
There, i said it.[/quote:1sss3uk6]
Thank you. I tried saying that twice myself but didn't sound convincing.
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A Boy Named Seo
Nov 14 2008 11:30 AM
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Declining K:BB rate, slower fastball, less breakier breaking ball, but he's still pretty good and all.
[url=http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/9/4/607253/the-worst-season-of-franci:m5ve27qv]http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/9/4/607253/the-worst-season-of-franci[/url:m5ve27qv]
I know I've heard 4 or 5 years being talked about by his agent, but how much cash does supposedly want?
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batmagadanleadoff
Nov 14 2008 11:43 AM
Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Nov 14 2008 11:49 AM
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| ="Edgy DC"]Yeah, but the choice is unlikely to be Rodriguez vs. Nobody, but rather Rodriguez vs. More-Bang-for-Your-Buck Alternative. |
That's a valid point.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 14 2008 11:44 AM
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Can I say one more thing with regards to F-Rod?
This is mostly a matter of taste, but everything else equal as it can be, I'd prefer we bypass the guys who act like complete jackasses out there on the field, as good or bad as they are.
I mean, I dig it when guys show some fire and emotion but Frod strikes me as the kind of player who's convinced himself that the spinning fist pump after strike 3 is a necessary part of his game, like Reyes and his raggaetron samba high-fives and sackdancing linebackers and other in-your-face douches like that. To me they're harder to root for.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 14 2008 11:46 AM
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Rodriguez will likely be fine. He's been good, he's still young, yadda yadda.
The problem comes from the fact that buying a closer on the open market is a very inefficient way of making your leads "safe", and from the usual 'GiGs' notion common among fans that evryone else's closer is better than the one we have.
FR threw 203 innings over the last 3 seasons, Wagner 188. IOW they were used about the same once you account for Wag's truncated 2008.
So let's boil those last 3 down to an "average" 70 inning season:
<table><tr><td align="center">---</td><td align="center"><b>H</b></td><td align="center"><b>ER</b></td><td align="center"><b>BB</b></td><td align="center"><b>K</b></td><td align="center"><b>HR</b></td><td align="center"><b>WHiP</b></td><td align="center"><b>ERA</b></td><td align="center"><b>Save Pct</b></td></tr><tr><td align="center">K-Rod</td><td align="center"><b>52</b></td><td align="center"><b>18</b></td><td align="center"><b>32</b></td><td align="center"><b>90</b></td><td align="center"><b>4</b></td><td align="center"><b>1.20</b></td><td align="center"><b>2.31</b></td><td align="center"><b>89.8%</b></td></tr><tr><td align="center">Wagner</td><td align="center"><b>54</b></td><td align="center"><b>19</b></td><td align="center"><b>20</b></td><td align="center"><b>84</b></td><td align="center"><b>6</b></td><td align="center"><b>1.06</b></td><td align="center"><b>2.40</b></td><td align="center"><b>85.6%</b></td></tr></table>
Not a whole lotta difference, eh?
Fewer HRs but more walks. More baserunners yet no more runs and fewer blown saves as a pct of the whole (although saves, like RBIs, are largely a product of opportunity and I suspect the Angels "small ball" style has led to more games to save than usual).
And for that "gain" you're probably paying about half again as much as Wagner ($40mil for 4 years becomes something like $60) while hoping that his age makes it safer and that the somewhat declining peripherals aren't a sign of bad things to come.
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 14 2008 11:51 AM
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If I'm the Mets, I keep an eye on Rodriguez, keep the channels of communication open, and see how the market plays itself out.
If it's true, as the <i>Hot Stove</i> guys were saying, that his price will be reduced by a limited demand, then the Mets should keep themselves in a position where they can pounce.
Like, if they can get him for $48 million over four years, maybe? I don't know if that will happen or not, but if it does, I'd want to be ready for it.
And if not, I'm sure Brian Fuentes is a fine alternative.
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batmagadanleadoff
Nov 14 2008 11:53 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 14 2008 11:54 AM
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I tihnk that it's safe to say that K-Rod is still better than any Met. Even the 2008 version of K-Rod, and even if you ignore his Saves total, which I always do no matter who the reliever is. Saves don't impress me. Let's not forget that it was the Mets bullpen that undermined the team more than anything else over the past two seasons. K-Rod might be a drastic remedy to some, but the bullpen needs help drastically. I'm not suggesting that the Mets throw their entire budget at K-Rod either, but I would assume that the bullpen is a priority.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 14 2008 11:53 AM
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Non-F Rodriguez options and possible prices (acc to Ken Davidoff - Newsday). He projects FRod @ 4 years for $54mil
Brian Fuentes: 3 years, $38mil
Kerry Wood: 2 x $10
Trevor Hoffman: 1 x $7
not really closers
Joe Beimel: 3 x $3
Juan Cruz: 3 x $5
Russ Springer: 1 x $4
CH Park: 1 x $3.5
Or trade options:
Huston Street - Now with Colorado
Bobby Jenks - ChiSox
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Frayed Knot
Nov 14 2008 11:56 AM
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| ]Let's not forget that it was the Mets bullpen that undermined the team more than anything else over the past two seasons. K-Rod might be a drastic remedy to some, but the bullpen needs help drastically |
Sure, just keep in mind that Rodriguez replacing Wagner essentially just gets you back to where you were!!
One guy doesn't make your bullpen solid anymore than getting one speedster makes you a running team.
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batmagadanleadoff
Nov 14 2008 12:02 PM
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="Frayed Knot"]| ]Let's not forget that it was the Mets bullpen that undermined the team more than anything else over the past two seasons. K-Rod might be a drastic remedy to some, but the bullpen needs help drastically |
Sure, just keep in mind that Rodriguez replacing Wagner essentially just gets you back to where you were!!
One guy doesn't make your bullpen solid anymore than getting one speedster makes you a running team. |
It gets the Mets back to where they were before Wagner's injury. And that was a lot better than not having Wagner. The pen was bad enough that K-Rod alone wouldn't be enough of a fix, even if he were to repeat last season. I agree. But having an effective K-Rod would be part of the solution. It would be a good start.
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metirish
Nov 14 2008 12:04 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 14 2008 12:05 PM
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Joe Posnanski on a new way to rate relievers. Scroll down to bold
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A new way of looking at relievers
One of the great things about being a voter on John Dewan's Fielding Bible panel is I get my Bill James Handbook before it is sold into stores. I love getting stuff early. And, more, I love my Bill James Handbook. Every year they add some great new statistic like one that breaks down how managers do their jobs:
Least effective intentional walkers in 2008 (bomb reflects multiple runs scoring after the walk):
1. Ron Washington (Texas), 20 out of 44 bombed (45.4%)
2. Eric Wedge (Cleveland), 11 out of 28 bombed (39.2%)
3. Cito Gaston (Toronto), 6 out of 16 bombed (37.5%)
4. Bud Black (San Diego), 17 out of 61 bombed (27.9%)
5. Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay), 8 out of 29 bombed (27.6%)
6. Dave Trembley (Baltimore), 12 out of 44 bombed (27.2%)
7. Bobby Cox (Atlanta), 20 out of 80 bombed (25%)
The best intentional walker? St. Louis' Tony La Russa, of course. Only one out of 21 bombed.
The book will break down other things, like the best base runners:
The 2008 best baserunners, excluding stolen bases:*
This list would measure going the number of extra bases a runner gets going from first to third on a single (average runner makes it 27% of the time) second to home on a single (average runner makes it about 59% of the time), first to home on a double (average runner makes it 43% of the time) and also takes into account the extra bases picked up on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, sac flies:
1. Matt Holliday, +28
(Holliday was 15 for 26 going first to third which is amazingly good, 17 for 24 going second to home, 5 for 6 scoring on a double from first, and he took 23 bases, which is a lot. True, you could argue that Holliday is helped by the immense size of Coors Field, but really the guy's an excellent baserunner).
2. Curtis Granderson, +27
3. Nate McLouth +27
(The Gold Glove was a farce, but he's a really good ballplayer)
4. Kelly Johnson +26
5. Shin-Soo-Choo, +26
Every year, like I say, they add all sorts of fun new statistical additions to the the handbook. This year, they added a section called "21st Century Bullpen" which breaks down relievers and makes the very logical case that in today's baseball, bullpen pitchers probably should be assigned positions since they do such very, very different jobs. We already have closers, and then we have a vague collection of set-up men, lefty-specialists, long-men, guys who you bring in to get double play grounders, bridges and so on. And we try to judge them all, more or less, on the same outdated statistics like ERA and won-loss record, and this is absurd.
Anyway, Bill has some real ideas about fixing that, and you HAVE to buy the book and read all about it. For today, I'm more concerned with something else Bill and the guys did: They took all the closers and broke up their their save opportunities into three simple categories:
1. Easy Save. This is a save when the first batter faced is not the tying or go-ahead run.
2. Tough save: This is a save when the tying or go ahead run is already on base when you take over.
3. Regular save: Everything else. (To see a sample from this season, click here.)
Simple enough. Here's a little info on each type of save.
1. Easy save: This represents more than half -- 58% to be exact -- of all save opportunities. And last year all relievers were successful on 87% of their easy save opportunities. Remember, that's ALL relievers -- not just specified closers. People who you would describe as closers (pitchers who had more than 10 save opportunities last year) were actually successful about 92% of the time -- or to put it in perspective, more often than almost any NBA player make free throws or field goal kickers make 30-yard field goals. A real closer should not blow easy saves.
2. Tough save: Almost never happens anymore -- except with Mariano Rivera who was five-for-five in tough save opportunities last year.Most managers bring the closer in to start a clean ninth inning, so tough saves only happen about 5% of the time. And relievers finish them off about 22% of the time. Again, full-time closers do considerably better than that -- they close out about 55% of tough saves.
3. Regular save. Most people would call a regular save a "tough" save because, in most cases it would mean starting the ninth inning with just a one-run lead. Regular saves make up 37% of all save opportunities, and all relievers close them out 57% of the time. Real closers finish them off 72.5% of the time -- as they should since, for the most part, real closers get paid more money.
OK, so this is what we're working with. So, naturally, I had to come up with an utterly meaningless formula to determine who is the best closer because, you know, that's what I do. Using the percentages Bill offered, I figured out how many more (or fewer) saves a closer has than a replacement closer. And then, using my utterly inept math skills, I came up with a CLOSER+ number that attempts to tell you how much better a closer is than average. The average, of course, is 100.
Here goes nothing: these were the best closers in 2008 (20 or more save opportunities):
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
Expected saves: 27
Actual saves: 39
CLOSER+: 145
I'm was thinking about doing a bigger piece on Rivera I'm fascinated by the guy's ability to get people out for a decade and more with, essentially, one pitch. Plus, I have this theory that I'm working on that Rivera has been even more valuable than his reputation, but for a very odd reason. My thinking is this: Because Rivera has been SO good, there have been very, very, very, very few back pages of the New York Post or New York Daily News that read like this:
Down The River-a: Yankees Blow Game In Ninth
or
BOMBERS BOMBED: Mariano falters late and Pinstripers Lose Again
See, we all know that nothing sucks the life out of a fan base more than the local heroes blowing a late lead. I don't know if it has a measurable effect on the team -- I haven't studied it -- but it definitely seems to have an effect on the general atmosphere, the energy level, the manager's enthusiasm, the talk radio tenor and so on. These things are multiplied in New York. And basically, in the case of Mariano, one guy has more or less eliminated that negativity from the equation.
I don't know ... just something I've been thinking about.
2. Brad Lidge, Phillies
Expected saves: 31
Actual saves: 41
CLOSER+: 132
I got the nicest call from Brad Lidge's grandmother the other day. In this crazy business, you get all sorts of phone calls, from people who hate your guts, to people who love you, to people want something you don't have (like free tickets or time with Tiger Woods). But then you get a nice call from Brad Lidge's grandmother, and it's just, you know, nice.
3. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
Expected saves: 31
Actual saves: 41
CLOSER+: 129
The formula goes goes into fractions which is why Papelbon's expected and actual saves are the same as Lidge's but his CLOSER+ is a touch lower. At least I think that's the reason. Papelbon was 4 for 4 in tough saves, which is much better than Lidge (who was not given a tough save opportunity all year). But he was just 15 for 20 on regular saves (while Lidge, of course, did not blow a save opportunity all year long).
4. Joakim Soria, Royals
Expected saves: 32
Actual saves: 42
CLOSER+: 128
I go back and forth, back and forth, back and forth on whether or not the Royals should try to make Soria a starter. I talk with one person who says they should and that makes sense to me for all the reasons you might expect:
-- A great starter is much more valuable than a great closer.
-- Soria came up as a starter and has multiple pitches and such an easy deliver that he seems a natural.
-- Think about a rotation of Soria, Zack Greinke and Gil Meche -- that's a pretty exciting thing. That, potentially anyway, could be up there with any team in baseball. Throw in a seemingly rejuvenated (or maybe just "juvenated") Kyle Davies, and our beloved Banny (Brian Bannister), and the No. 1 pick of the 2006 draft (Luke Hochevar), I mean, yeah, that would be exciting.
-- If it doesn't work for whatever reason, put him back.
-- I get the sense -- though he's a tough guy to read -- that Soria would like to be a starter.
So, I'm on that bandwagon. Then I talk to someone else who says there's no way the Royals should make him a starter, and I find myself nodding -- that makes too for all the reasons you might expect:
-- Soria is already a dominant closer and there's no telling how he would be as a starter. You don't fool with one of the few things you have done right in a decade.
-- There are very, very, very, very few examples of a guy who begins his career as dominant closer being made into a dominant starter. In fact, when I went back to try and find one, I pretty much rolled snake eyes.
-- If he fails as a starter, you may ruin him as a closer too. You may not, but there's always a risk. Part of Soria's brilliance seems to be that he feels invincible. You would hate to mess with that.
-- There's a great feeling in the clubhouse with Soria closing things out -- everyone knows that if they get to the late innings with a lead they will almost certainly win. You would hate to mess with that either.
-- Who would close? Hochevar? Ram Ram (Ramon Ramirez)? Jeff Montgomery?
Both of these lines of thinking make some sense to me. So, in the end, where do I come down? I would say that at this moment, if I'm playing with someone else's money, yeah, I would at least try to make Soria a starter. I think it would have an excellent chance of working, and I think if it didn't work for some reason I think he would be able to regain his dominance in the pen. Plus ... I'm serious, how can you not get excited about a Soria-Greinke-Meche top three?
Of course, I could be convinced otherwise.
5. C.J. Wilson, Texas
Expected saves: 19
Actual saves: 24
CLOSER+: 126
6. Brian Wilson, San Francisco
Expected Saves: 33
Actual saves: 41
CLOSER+: 125
Lyin' in bed just like Brian Wilson did
Well I am ...
Lyin' in bed just like Brian Wilson did
So I'm a-lying here, just staring at the ceiling tiles
and I'm thinking about, oh, what to think about
Just listening and relistening to Smiley Smile
And I'm wondering if this some kind of creative drought
7. Joe Nathan, Twins
Expected saves: 31
Actual saves: 39
CLOSER+: 124
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
Expected saves: 24
Actual Saves: 30
CLOSER+: 122
9. K-Rod, Angels
Expected saves: 52
Actual saves: 62
CLOSER+: 119
He had one tough save all year -- which he converted -- and he was slightly better than the average closer on the easy and regular saves. I'm not sure how other relievers would have handled 69 save opportunities from a mental standpoint. And it's significant that he pitched on consecutive days 29 times, more than any other closer. But from a pure pitching quality standpoint, I think there are about probably 10 to 15 other pitchers who, given the same opportunities as K-Rod, would have smashed the save record last year.
10. Brian Fuentes
Expected saves: 25
Actual saves: 30
CLOSER+: 119
And a quick list of worst closers, 20 or more opportunities:
Worst: J.J. Putz, Seattle
Expected saves: 16
Actual saves: 15
CLOSER+: 94
The CLOSER+ number is a bit misleading because a 100 closer is actually pretty lousy. The number 100 comes from the average of ALL relievers, not just closers. An average "closer" is actually closer to 115. If that makes any sense at all. Which I'm sure it doesn't.
Other struggling closers in 2008: Billy Wagner (100 CLOSER+), Ryan Franklin (100 CLOSER+) and Jonathan Broxton (103 CLOSER+).
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[url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/joe_posnanski/11/07/posnanski.closers/index.html]Joe Posnanski[/url]
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 14 2008 12:05 PM
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Well, yeah, but...
When everything went wrong this past season, Wagner wasn't around. Had Wagner, or Rodriguez, been available in September, the Mets might very well have won the two additional games they needed to get into the playoffs.
But yes, they need more than just a replacement for Billy. They need a few more reliable arms, and to stop relying on so many unreliable arms.
I can see them adding a new setup guy or two, someone like Beimel, perhaps. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if they gave Chad Cordero a shot.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 14 2008 12:06 PM
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The alternative being that when you need a lot it may be smarter to forgo the one big piece in favor of 3 or 4 lesser pieces for the same price.
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batmagadanleadoff
Nov 14 2008 12:10 PM
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="Frayed Knot":1xorke0q]The alternative being that when you need a lot it may be smarter to forgo the one big piece in favor of 3 or 4 lesser pieces for the same price.[/quote:1xorke0q]
I'll go along (as if I had any choice). Replacing inferior relievers for superior ones is always a good thing.
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Zvon
Nov 14 2008 12:55 PM
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I have an off season wish list and this guy stands alone at the top.
Closer is not a spot the Mets should hope falls into place.
I hope for additional bullpen moves , but alla that can fall into place.
Nothing is more important than getting a bona fide closer.
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metirish
Nov 14 2008 01:01 PM
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Reliable guys to get the ball to that closer are very important .
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Vic Sage
Nov 14 2008 02:16 PM
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| ]...They need a few more reliable arms, and to stop relying on so many unreliable arms.
I can see them adding a new setup guy or two, someone like Beimel, perhaps. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if they gave Chad Cordero a shot. |
Ben, you say you want to add more reliable arms, and then you call for signing a guy coming off a serious arm injury, and another guy who allowed a very high rate of inherited runners to score.
That's just GiG thinking.
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 14 2008 02:38 PM
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I'm not advocating for Cordero, just predicting.
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Zvon
Nov 14 2008 02:38 PM
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="metirish":3sk2dk60]Reliable guys to get the ball to that closer are very important .[/quote:3sk2dk60]
I agree, but if I was Omar I'd make my priority the closer (that could be easy if its a simple money game) and then do the hard work, do what a good GM should do, and find ways to strengthen that bullpen.
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Nymr83
Nov 15 2008 04:19 PM
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How do you guys feel about pursuing Trevor Hoffman? He and the Padres aren't speaking (they made a lowball offer and then withdrew even that and refuse to speak to him) and he's probably one of the few talented relievers amenable to a short deal. i know he's OLD, but what if its just for a year with an option?
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smg58
Nov 15 2008 05:12 PM
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Trevor could be a bargain. His year finished much better than it started. The catch is he's not more than a 50-inning pitcher at this point, but if you get a couple of innings-eaters in place, he could still be a good fit.
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 15 2008 05:47 PM
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I'd prefer more than a one-year solution. This year there are several relievers available, and not a lot of competition for them. (Or so it seems, at least.) Next year conditions might not be as favorable.
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Kong76
Nov 15 2008 05:48 PM
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C'mon guys, if Trevor is our closer for 2009 I'll taking up knitting instead of
watching the closing innings of Mets' games.
There's only one closer that should be on the Mets' radar.
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Edgy DC
Nov 15 2008 07:58 PM
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I'll say three with Rodriguez, Fuentes, and Wood in the mix. Trevor Hoffman? Gaby Hoffman, maybe, but not Trevor.
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Fman99
Nov 15 2008 08:14 PM
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="smg58":25fovtlb]Trevor could be a bargain. His year finished much better than it started. The catch is he's not more than a 50-inning pitcher at this point, but if you get a couple of innings-eaters in place, he could still be a good fit.[/quote:25fovtlb]
He's beyond done. He's had numerous late season chances to earn his pay and come up empty.
We already have guys who can do that.
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DocTee
Nov 15 2008 08:46 PM
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I prevor Hoffman to Fuentes. My preference is Kerry Wood.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 16 2008 06:08 AM
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Hoffman's numbers this season weren't as bad as I thought.
Only 45 innings worth (missed some time due to injury) but a real good WHiP and his K/BB and H/IP ratios suggest he deserved a better ERA than the 3.7 he put up.
On the other hand he just turned 41, had a real good pitchers park to call home, and a fastball/changeup pitcher with a diminshing fastball kinda scares you.
And then there's some interesting stuff in Joel Sherman's NYPost column today - enough to suggest that they're not just going to throw money at the problem and hope for the best.
There is growing belief in the industry, in fact, that Rodriguez will have to retreat from his five-year, $75 million demands and accept four years. Yet, the Mets still might prefer Fuentes.
K-Rod did set the season record with 62 saves in 2008. But one Mets official had this insight: "When it comes to statistics, we are not basing this decision on save totals; at least not save totals alone." The Mets will honor, among other items, strikeout-to-walk ratio and on-base percentage against.
And I came across this stat just out of curiosity: Rodriguez registered 1-2-3 frames in a career-low 29.2 percent of his innings (all figures courtesy of Elias). That ranked 151st out of 253 pitchers who worked at least 60 innings in 2008. Fuentes (41.3) was 13th, Wood (38.1) was 28th, Street (38.0), even with diminished stuff, was 29th, and another free agent, Brandon Lyon (37.7) was 31st.
Rodriguez's stuff is not as electric as in the past, possibly because his high-effort delivery has robbed some life from his arm, though he is just 26. The Mets could wonder if the lack of clean 1-2-3 innings will continue to grow with age now, and if Rodriguez loses more stuff, will he be able to extract himself from difficulty with the same excellence?
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 16 2008 06:15 AM
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I don;t want K-Rod because expectations that will come along with him will be nearly impossible to meet. A guy like Fuentes could exceed expectations and doesn't have such a brand name that he could be shuffled to a setup role without the world coming to an end.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 16 2008 09:32 AM
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On the trade front, the scribes have a bit of disagreement on the status of ChiSox closer Bobby Jenks.
The Post's Sherman declares it a virtually still-born idea citing too high an asking price (Fartinez + ?) combined with questions about decreasing K-rates and whether the Sox are making him available in the first place because they know something about him that other teams will only find out the hard way.
Newsday's Davidoff, on the other hand, suggests a trade is in some ways preferable to the FA route and includes insider-ish quotes on how those plummeting K-rates are really signs of Jenks becoming a more complete pitcher.
I do know Jenks had a real ass-hat rep early in his career. He came out of some trailer-park/white-trash kind of background complete with the requisite drinking problem which was at least part of what led to his release from the Angels org while still a minor-leaguer despite his ability to hit triple-digits on the radar gun. He of course then went on to anchor the Sox pen in their '05 run to the WS and I haven't heard about any problems since so maybe all that nonsense is behind him.
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 17 2008 09:17 AM
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| ]Mets expected to make offers soon
BY DAVID LENNON
November 17, 2008
The Mets' true offseason strategy will reveal itself this week when general manager Omar Minaya finally extends offers to his top free-agent targets. A person familiar with the situation did not specify which day Minaya will deliver the numbers to Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes. He also could make an offer to starting pitchers such as Derek Lowe.
That represents a significant step, considering that the Mets have talked about a number of different options - including a trade for the White Sox's Bobby Jenks - in order to fill their vacant closer slot. But now that Minaya is ready to talk years and dollars, it appears that his preference is to see where the free-agent market goes first.
The Mets' plan will be much different from what the Yankees did Friday in making an offer to CC Sabathia that is said to be for six years and about $140 million. Expect Minaya to start small and work his way up the ladder in a negotiating process that should extend into the winter meetings, which begin Dec. 8 in Las Vegas.
Ideally, Minaya would prefer no longer than a three-year deal for K-Rod or Fuentes, and it's realistic to think that the first to agree to that length could become the Mets' closer. Rodriguez's agent, Paul Kinzer, hinted at a five-year contract for his client, but four is more likely and three is a possibility, depending on the market.
The Mets already have suggested that K-Rod, despite the best resume among the candidates, is not a slam-dunk to anchor their bullpen. But it's difficult to determine if their reservations about Rodriguez - floated publicly as concerns - are legit or merely a negotiating ploy to get him at their price.
The money, it seems, is not nearly as important to the Mets as the number of years. They learned their lesson with Billy Wagner, who will collect $10.5 million on the DL next year - the final season of his four-year, $43-million contract - because of Tommy John surgery. |
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Number 6
Nov 17 2008 12:58 PM
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="Frayed Knot":1grv257o]He came out of some trailer-park/white-trash kind of background complete with the requisite drinking problem...[/quote:1grv257o]
I don't know you, but I've read your posts and I generally respect your point of view. Here, though, I think you may want an opportunity to choose your words more carefully.
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MFS62
Nov 19 2008 08:42 AM
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I think that there will be help for the bullpen that is already on the roster.
Duaner Sanchez.
He had the kind of surgery that had never been attempted before for a pitcher. It was not TJ surgery.
Doctors didn't know if he would ever pitch again. He did, and at times showed some of his prior effectiveness. Then, it appeared he experienced arm fatigue and his performance level decreased.
Now, with a full winter to rest, I think he can again be a valuable contributor to the bullpen
Later
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 19 2008 08:45 AM
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I'd say there's a better chance Duaner Sanchez is finished than becomes a closer.
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 19 2008 09:03 AM
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He may still have something to contribute, but I certainly wouldn't want to position the Mets to where they're counting on him for 2009.
Figure anything he provides is a bonus, but don't expect much.
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seawolf17
Nov 20 2008 11:18 AM
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From Jayson Stark:
| ]The Marlins traded Kevin Gregg but will plug in the up-and-coming Matt Lindstrom ... The Padres pushed Hoffman out their door, and they probably will stay in-house and go with Heath Bell. |
(sigh)
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smg58
Nov 20 2008 06:36 PM
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Bill James does all sorts of weird statistical analyses on his website, but this one jumped out at me.
Duaner Sanchez in 2006: 44 shutout innings in 55.1 IP
Duaner Sanchez in 2008: 46 shutout innings in 58.1 IP
He clearly had an issue with blowup innings this year, but he had good outings at the same rate that he had them in 06. That gives me some reason for optimism with him. Not enough that I'd want him to close, but certainly enough to tender him a contract. I also think he's likely to be worth more than anything we could get in return.
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Nymr83
Nov 20 2008 06:56 PM
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I'd like to see Sanchez back in a middle relief role, he could regain his form now that he is further removed from his injury, and its not like he was TERRIBLE last year, just slightly below average.
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Edgy DC
Nov 20 2008 07:44 PM
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But he wasn't overpowering anybody. I got the notion that any success he had was just the ball bouncing well for him.
That's mostly my impression. His strikeout rate was pretty similar, and velocity can return in year two after surgery, but it's not like his surgery has a lot of precedent either.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 20 2008 07:46 PM
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="smg58":3f37zrot]
He clearly had an issue with blowup innings this year, but he had good outings at the same rate that he had them in 06. That gives me some reason for optimism with him. Not enough that I'd want him to close, but certainly enough to tender him a contract. I also think he's likely to be worth more than anything we could get in return.[/quote:3f37zrot]
And get nothing for Tim Hamulack?
I'm willing to be proven wrong here but I'd be very surprised if Sanchez is ever more than a fringe major leaguer from this point. He showed seriously diminished velocity from about June on and when the Mets needed someone to step up and give them some quality and durability late last year he was nowhere to be found.
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 27 2008 07:38 AM
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| ="Adam Rubin"]Brian Fuentes' price Rocks Omar Minaya
By ADAM RUBIN
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER
Thursday, November 27th 2008, 12:45 AM
Brian Fuentes' agent tells Mets he's looking for three-year deal, in the $30 million-$33 million range.
Brian Fuentes' representatives told the Mets the free agent closer is seeking a three-year deal worth $10 million to $11 million annually, according to a source familiar with the discussion. That price tag is a bit high for the Mets, but they are still interested in the former Rockie.
GM Omar Minaya contacted the agents for Francisco Rodriguez and Fuentes on Tuesday, trying to lay the groundwork for in-person meetings. The Mets appear to be moving on parallel tracks with both free agents, content to sign either if the price is right.
But a $30 million-plus commitment to Fuentes over three years is more than the what the Mets think he's worth.
"Right now we're talking with the agents," Omar Minaya told Jim Duquette on XM Radio Wednesday. "But we are getting a pretty good idea as far as what terms they're looking for. Once we get an idea of the terms they're looking for, we have a better idea what we think it's going to take to get these guys done - understanding that markets do change, and they fluctuate.
"Right now we're in the early stages. My understanding is a lot of clubs are reevaluating this market, more so because of the unfortunate financial strain that is going on not only in baseball but throughout the world."
Signing the 33-year-old Fuentes, who made $5 million last year, over the more expensive K-Rod ($10M in 2008) would make acquiring a higher-priced set-up man - such as Colorado's Huston Street - easier to justify. Street, shipped to the Rockies this month after compiling 94 saves over the past four seasons with Oakland, may be flipped to another organization. He made $3.3 million last season and is arbitration eligible. Street won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2010 season - the same offseason Aaron Heilman becomes a free agent.
Minaya also confirmed the Mets' widely reported interest in free agent outfielder Raul Ibañez, although the GM noted that pitching is the priority for now. Minaya acknowledged trying to acquire Ibañez from the Mariners last July.
"Last year we did talk to them during the trading deadline about him," Minaya said. "Unfortunately, we were not able to get a trade done. We've heard very good reports about him - not only as a player, but as a person. I understand the Phillies, they're one of the teams that's considering him. We are also keeping an eye on that situation, even though we're focusing right now on pitching primarily. But he is a good player."
As for re-signing Oliver Perez, Minaya said: "We definitely have Oliver on our radar, but I don't know what his asking price is. Sometime during the winter meetings we will probably sit down with (Perez's agent) Scott (Boras) and kind of get a better feel for what exactly he is looking for."
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Edgy DC
Nov 27 2008 07:53 AM
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Not on the radar at all, it seems: Kerry Wood.
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bmfc1
Nov 27 2008 08:42 AM
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There must be a good reason why Fuentes was removed for awhile as the Rockies closer. He's way overpriced. I'd take him as the 8th inning guy but that's it.
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smg58
Nov 27 2008 09:21 AM
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Waiting might not be a bad strategy in this market. Other than the Mets and Angels, it's not clear who has both the need for a closer and the money to spend for a high-priced one. So somebody will become available for a really good price eventually.
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Edgy DC
Nov 27 2008 10:02 PM
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A FOX sports report (among others) has the Mets considering Joseph Jason (J.J.) Putz. Coming off a down, injury-bitten year, but he's got a wickit splitter and enters to "Thunderstruck." The M's take the theme-song thingie a little further than usual with him, playing a bit o' the song after each out.
Ah-AH-a-ah-ah-a-AH-ah. Thun-Dah!
Ah-AH-a-ah-ah-a-AH-ah. Thun-Dah!
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TheOldMole
Nov 28 2008 08:32 AM
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Every New York team should have a Putz.
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Rockin' Doc
Nov 28 2008 10:46 AM
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I think the Yankees are owned by Putzes.
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dgwphotography
Nov 28 2008 11:01 AM
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="Rockin' Doc":s6sgsdk7]I think the Yankees are owned by Putzes.[/quote:s6sgsdk7]
It is High!
It is FAR!
IT.... IS.... GONE!!!!!!!!
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 28 2008 11:06 AM
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I got nothing against JJ Putz personally but I'd be surprised if stories like this aren't leaked so as to make free agents scared.
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DocTee
Nov 28 2008 01:02 PM
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| ]Not on the radar at all, it seems: Kerry Wood. |
I'm disappointed by the Mets' apparent lack of interest in any other than Fuentes or K-Rod. My preference is for Wood, or Arizona's Brandon Lyon (who'd come much, much cheaper than any of the aforementioned).
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Nymr83
Nov 28 2008 01:15 PM
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I don't want Wood, that injury history is way too scary.
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Gwreck
Nov 28 2008 01:40 PM
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| ="Edgy DC"] The M's take the theme-song thingie a little further than usual with him, playing a bit o' the song after each out.
Ah-AH-a-ah-ah-a-AH-ah. Thun-Dah!
Ah-AH-a-ah-ah-a-AH-ah. Thun-Dah! |
In fairness, the Mets were doing something similar, playing part of Enter Sandman after every Wagner K.
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Edgy DC
Nov 28 2008 08:04 PM
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Well, to be honest, I'm about fed up to here with the concept of theme songs and I think it's time the Mets zagged no matter who they get.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 29 2008 04:41 AM
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="DocTee"]| ]Not on the radar at all, it seems: Kerry Wood. |
I'm disappointed by the Mets' apparent lack of interest in any other than Fuentes or K-Rod. My preference is for Wood, or Arizona's Brandon Lyon (who'd come much, much cheaper than any of the aforementioned). |
An article in [url=http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/29/sports/baseball/29mets.html?ref=sports]today's NYTimes[/url] suggests just the opposite. Citing the always popular "people in baseball with knowledge of their stategy" they say that the Mets are persuing any and all options to fill their spot - or spots - in the pen.
Specifically they mention not only the already held discussions with agents for Rodriguez & Fuentes but also those with other teams concerning Putz, Valverde, Street, and Jenks, as well as "evaluating" the situations with Wood & Hoffman (sounds like more as a fallback).
Lyons isn't mentioned although I have no idea about his availability.
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MFS62
Nov 29 2008 04:31 PM
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On ESPN2 during the BC-Maryland game the tickert just said:
"Mets believe they can sign free agent P Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year deal because there are no other takers, ESPN's Peter Gammons reports"
No link.
Two comments:
1) It was Gammons
2) Don't count your chickens, etc. etc.
Later
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 29 2008 05:05 PM
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As of now, my hunch is that the Mets will end up signing Rodriguez to a four-year deal.
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Kong76
Nov 29 2008 05:31 PM
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I agree. Or three years at really sick money per year.
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Gwreck
Dec 05 2008 12:10 PM
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Some thoughts on this today from Buster Olney's blog at ESPN:
| ]• The Mets' front office believes, rightly, that it is in the driver's seat in the closers market, and part of their internal discussion has been about making offers to some relievers while informing them that the first one to jump at their proposal will be signed, and the others will be out of luck. The reason why this could be such an effective strategy for the Mets is they are the only team that appears willing to spend relatively big money on a multi-year deal for a closer.
For example: It is not known exactly what the Mets intend to offer to the top-flight closers, but let's say they proposed a three-year, $36 million deal to Francisco Rodriguez; a three-year, $30 million offer to Brian Fuentes; and a two-year, $18 million offer to Kerry Wood. And then they could tell all three that the first to bite gets the contract. The Cardinals, Brewers, Indians and other teams are looking for closers, but probably won't spend at the same level as the Mets.
The Indians, in fact, are willing to let the market play out, and at some point, some closer will be available at a good price, whether it be one of the free agents (like Trevor Hoffman) or perhaps a trade for J.J. Putz or Huston Street. |
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 05 2008 12:24 PM
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What do we think of the speculation that the Mets could get Street from the Rockies for Heilman?
If I'm Omar, I'd do that in a heartbeat. (I don't know if Street would be the answer for the ninth inning, but he'd be an upgrade for the eighth inning.)
I just don't see the reason why the Rockies would do this, other than the idea that some teams see Heilman as a more viable starter than the Mets do.
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smg58
Dec 05 2008 12:58 PM
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Heilman won't be enough, but apparently the Rockies would bite if we threw in Feliciano. That still seems like a good offer to me, but I don't see the harm in waiting for a bit and seeing what our other options are.
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Edgy DC
Dec 05 2008 01:20 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 05 2008 01:21 PM
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Can we pronounce it Howston Street?
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 05 2008 01:20 PM
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| ="Edgy DC"]Can we pronounce it Howston Street? |
If he comes to New York, I intend to do just that.
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Centerfield
Dec 05 2008 01:31 PM
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="smg58":2djctsow]Heilman won't be enough, but apparently the Rockies would bite if we threw in Feliciano. That still seems like a good offer to me, but I don't see the harm in waiting for a bit and seeing what our other options are.[/quote:2djctsow]
Just let us know when the deal is done. Nymr and I are in the car waiting to drive them to Colorado.
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 05 2008 01:33 PM
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I don't want to drive to Denver, but I'll chip in for gas money for you guys.
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Frayed Knot
Dec 06 2008 06:42 AM
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Read something in the last day or two (I forget where at this point) that Omar may try the 'first-come/first-served' approach with the group of FA closers.
IOW, put out more or less simultaneous (though not identical) offers to Rodriguez, Fuentes & Wood and inform tham all that the first one to accept gets the job while those who snooze, lose.
So maybe KRod gets offered 3x$14, Fuentes 2x12, and Wood 1+option in an attempt to snag a closer on what the Mets consider reasonable terms.
Now this is a similar tact he tried with FA catchers Ramon Hernandez and (Benjy Molina?) a few years back although neither bit. That, in turn, caused Omar to trade for LoDuca instead. So maybe the trade route involving the Putz/Street/Valverde crowd is on the back burner in case the FA gambit falls through.
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Gwreck
Dec 06 2008 03:14 PM
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="Frayed Knot":3fkccx50]Read something in the last day or two (I forget where at this point) that Omar may try the 'first-come/first-served' approach with the group of FA closers.[/quote:3fkccx50]
About 7 posts up in this thread?
(It was Buster Olney at ESPN.com).
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 08 2008 07:46 AM
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According to numerous sources, Omar met with Francisco Rodriguez yesterday, and expects to come home from the winter meetings with a deal closed for a closer.
Me, I'd be surprised if he got it all done in the next few days, but he might very well lay the groundwork for an announcement some time next week.
I'm still expecting it will be Rodriguez.
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metirish
Dec 08 2008 08:00 AM
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It should be noted that Jeff Wilpon went with Minaya and his crew(Bernazard , Ricco etc) to the meetings , took Wilpon's jet there in fact.
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 08 2008 08:10 AM
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That's not cool. They should have driven there in a hybrid vehicle.
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Edgy DC
Dec 08 2008 08:32 AM
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A golf cart with a Mets hat.
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G-Fafif
Dec 08 2008 03:20 PM
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Three years [url=http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081208&content_id=3706411&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp:10qpkdcm]reportedly[/url:10qpkdcm] on the table for K-Rod from Mets, though he's not considered likely to jump at it.
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attgig
Dec 08 2008 04:21 PM
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on a totally different train.... and probably more smokescreen than anything else (a la hoffman), but how about smoltz?
he's coming back from injury, yeah. he's old. yeah
but, we know he can close.
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