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="Adam Rubin":h7yml904]There isn't a shortage of teams that want Heilman as a starter, with the Rockies believed to be among at least six teams intrigued.[/quote:h7yml904]
If this is true, then then Mets should be able to find a decent deal for Heilman. I think his time in Queens is about played out. If they can get a good player in return for him, they might as well do it.
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metirish
Nov 20 2008 01:07 PM
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="attgig":3g1dczwr]
n. the title of the thread is pretty misleading, as it depicts him to be an a$$ which he hasn't been.
[/quote:3g1dczwr]
That wasn't my intention , I thought it was obvious that it was a silly play on the " if I ain't starting I ain't departing' All Star game quote form years ago. Kiner used to tell that story a lot.But maybe it was only obvious to me.
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Centerfield
Nov 20 2008 01:11 PM
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="attgig":1h6e4qxm]he's NEVER been a premadonna [/quote:1h6e4qxm]
Intentional or not?
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Frayed Knot
Nov 20 2008 01:47 PM
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I think Cher was a pre-Madonna.
I agree that the rep Aaron has for bitching about his bullpen role is vastly overblown is some circles. The topic usually comes up each spring as a result of some scribe asking and then gets dropped almost as quickly. And, up until this year, he's gone on to pitch well despite the fact that he'd rather be starting.
This "or trade him" talk from the agent is more proactive than usual as he probably figured to draw some attention to it and maybe prompt the club into action coming off the down year but it's not like he's in position to make anything happen.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 20 2008 01:49 PM
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Heilman for Street. What do you say?
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Benjamin Grimm
Nov 20 2008 01:51 PM
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I'd pull that trigger.
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Nymr83
Nov 20 2008 03:48 PM
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Heilman is coming off a terrible year as a reliever. He has a history of being equally terrible as a starter. Anyone can say "I want to start" but he has no credibility to say "I deserve to start."
If the Mets can get anyone useful for him they should jump at it.
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Zvon
Nov 20 2008 04:26 PM
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I agree with Aaron about one thing.
He should get out of the bullpen, or at least the role he plays there.
Why not make him long man out and a spot starter.
At least that puts him in a position to crack the rotation.
Personally I feel if Omar ends up short in the rotation dept. and he looks to fill that spot from within,
and there is nobody better or as experienced, Heilman should be given that shot.
Like Ben said, as of now: "He can't be any worse than the guy we don't have."
Or grant his wish and trade him.
I'd like to hear the exact reasons why the Mets don't feel like he can be a starter
(and I don't mean his starting numbers- which don't exactly help his cause).
I remember when I couldn't wait to run Looper out a town on a rail, and giving him an opportunity to start would have been totally insane to me.
But he did get that chance with the Cards and he won 24 games over the last two seasons. Ate up 199 innings last year.
If there's a spot open come spring I'll be surprised and a bit concerned. But that would be a good time to see what Aaron can do.
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Nymr83
Nov 20 2008 04:57 PM
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| ]I'd like to hear the exact reasons why the Mets don't feel like he can be a starter
(and I don't mean his starting numbers- which don't exactly help his cause).
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You can't ask for the reasons and then say "oh, but the best evidence we have I don't want to hear about."
Heilman sucked as a starter, he sucked as a reliever, why give him another shot at starting? I'd rather see what Jonathan Niese can do.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 20 2008 05:03 PM
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N4N, but Heilman had 3 very good years as a reliever including an excellent one in 2007. If I were any team but the Mets I'd be happy to give him a chance in a relief and/or starting role & wouldn't be at all surprised if he's good.
I just don't think his brand image gives him a great chance for success here any longer.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 20 2008 06:09 PM
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Heilman "bad history as a starter" consists mostly of his first year in the majors.
His bad history was no more than Pelfrey's was round about 6 months ago.
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cooby
Nov 20 2008 06:23 PM
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Heilman is a strike out guy and I wish he were a starter too.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 20 2008 06:47 PM
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| ]I'd like to hear the exact reasons why the Mets don't feel like he can be a starter |
There seem to be two:
1) He's only a two pitch pitcher which is fine for once around the lineup but less so the third or fourth time around
2) His "high elbow" delivery is a recipe for breakdown once you get past 100 innings or so. That was reportedly the sourece of Rick Peterson's "whoever drafted this guy should be fired" comment.
I suppose one could take the cynical view that now that he's within 2 years of FA-gency why not use him as much as possible and if he breaks down ah whatthehell he's disposable anyway -- although according to the articles here no one in the heirachry has changed their minds recently.
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Nymr83
Nov 20 2008 06:51 PM
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="Frayed Knot":2oalyv4e]Heilman "bad history as a starter" consists mostly of his first year in the majors.
His bad history was no more than Pelfrey's was round about 6 months ago.[/quote:2oalyv4e]
Theres no age comparison (Pelfrey stunk up the joint as age 22-23 while Heilman did so at 24-25), Pelfrey has more pitches and a superior minor league track record (despite being rushed through the minors while Heilman was coddled at AAA for 3 years) as well as being a ground-ball machine as opposed to being a homerun-prone mess.
Furthermore, even if Heilman may have been suited to starting 3 or 4 years ago he has spent the last 3 years exclusively in the bullpen, including a terrible walk-fest this year, why would you want to waste valuable starts on that next year?
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Edgy DC
Nov 20 2008 07:40 PM
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Heilman wasn't coddled. He spent one year mixed between AA and AAA and two years mixed between AAA and MLB because he failed to hold down a big-league job.
The two track records aren't that different at all, except they gave Pelfrey a big league job to lose and made Heilman earn his.
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Nymr83
Nov 20 2008 07:47 PM
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just look at the ages, Pelfrey was forced into the majors 3 years younger and thats why he didnt succeed right away. Pelfrey had about 90 minor league innings when he was asked to make his debut, Heilman had twice that.
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Edgy DC
Nov 20 2008 07:54 PM
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I don't think Heilman "sucked" in any way that Pelfrey and countless other young pitchers do.
You can contextualize Pelfrey's performance, but it won't make it good. Or a-typical. That's how young pitchers trying to find themselves tend to do.
You want context? How about three very effective years as a reliever without failing? You just sum that up as "he sucked as a reliever." What does one do with that?
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Nymr83
Nov 20 2008 07:59 PM
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| ="Edgy DC"]I don't think Heilman "sucked" in any way that Pelfrey and countless other young pitchers do. |
he sucked at a more advanced age and with more minor league experience, which leads be to believe that suckitude was more indicative of what he can do than it would be with a guy who was younger and/or less exprienced (pelfrey.)
| ]You want context? How about three very effective years as a reliever without failing? You just sum that up as "he sucked as a reliever." What does one do with that? |
the most recent season isn't everything, but its more important than older ones, but more importantly my question from the beginning is why should he be given a chance to start coming off this terrible performance? what evidence is there that he would be a more effective option, as a starter, than either a FA acquisition, a trade acquisition, or a minor leaguer currently in the organization? i'd say none.
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Edgy DC
Nov 20 2008 08:05 PM
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Ask his agent.
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Edgy DC
Nov 20 2008 08:37 PM
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I really can't see this as anything other than Heilman's agent doing his job and maximizing his client's value.
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Frayed Knot
Nov 20 2008 08:50 PM
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The point in the Pelfrey comparison is not to say that they're the same pitcher (or are going to be) but that the "failed" part of their starting careers were about the same sample size.
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metsmarathon
Nov 20 2008 09:23 PM
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7 starts into 2005, heilman had about a 4.7 era (excluding 3.1 innings of runless relief mixed in)
7 starts into 2008, mike pelfrey had a 5 era.
i think we also tend to forget that heilman had a number of good outings for us this year, and turned out to have been nursing a knee injury the whole while.
not for nothing, but the schaeffer results do tell us that the sum of his positive outings was greater than any other reliever. he had a number of clunkers, true, but which do you think is more the measure of his worth? the handful of true clunker outings this year, or the three prior years of good to stellar relief?
all i'm sayin' is, its freakin' early and inaccurate to write off his career as "he sucked, does suck, and will always suck"
we'd be fools to dump him. i hesitate, now, to put him in the rotation as more than a fifth starter, but only because i don't know that he can start having spent so many years in the pen, and i'm concerned enough about maine that i want a reliable fifth guy. but others, such as looper, have made the transition well enough. i would grant him his wish to be traded if the return were suitable to replace him in our pen.
i would, hedging my bets here, also think that he could be given the chance to compete for a starting spot in spring training, and if we need to fill in for an injury, open the season with him, or allow it to be a tryout for another club. if it doesn't work out - him having the length to start - put him right back in the pen.
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Zvon
Nov 20 2008 11:16 PM
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| ="Nymr83"] what evidence is there that he would be a more effective option, as a starter, than either a FA acquisition, a trade acquisition, or a minor leaguer currently in the organization? |
I'm all for an acquisition through market or trade.
If it's a proven successful starter, I'd even rather go that route.
But if they don't do that and there's a spot open....
I figure Perez and Hernandez are gone, so the way things stand now I consider Niese as part of the rotation.
You think they should give the open spot to Brandon Knight?
Now I can see why Heilman is insulted.
I know this is really not a good point business wise but Heilman has always wanted to be a starter.
For this team, he has always done whats been asked of him and he has paid his dues.
It's a fact he can pitch at the major league level.
He should be given what he requests.
A shot at a spot or a trade.
If we do acquire a real starter I have no problem with Neise and Heilman
trying out for that 5th spot during the spring.
And if Aaron gets it Neise can be a nice fallback should he fail.
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Gwreck
Nov 21 2008 12:07 AM
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I view Heilman as an extremely valuable reliever who had a bad year. His results in 2005-2007 show him to be an excellent-to-outstanding reliever, and I think the point about Heilman having many quality innings in 2008 is a valid one.
It's too bad the moronic fans ruined things.
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Nymr83
Nov 21 2008 12:42 AM
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too many people to respond to...
| ]I really can't see this as anything other than Heilman's agent doing his job and maximizing his client's value.
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thats fine, but i thought we were talking about this from the perspective of what a fan who enjoys winning wants to see the team do about it.
| ]The point in the Pelfrey comparison is not to say that they're the same pitcher (or are going to be) but that the "failed" part of their starting careers were about the same sample size. |
the comparison fails because of the different ages and points into their professional careers where they were then.
| ]not for nothing, but the schaeffer results do tell us that the sum of his positive outings was greater than any other reliever. he had a number of clunkers, true, but which do you think is more the measure of his worth? the handful of true clunker outings this year, or the three prior years of good to stellar relief? |
or maybe the schaffer results tell us that he pitched well in games where nobody else deserved points while Smith, Stokes, Wagner, whoever pitched well in games where David Wright hit a homerun and John Maine went 7 innings with 1 run, schaffer is hardly a reliable anything
its not at all fair to try and pull out his bad outings, they are part of who he was and he walked a hell of alot of batters, thats more indicative than anything else.
why should the prior years count more? if i'm projecting a guy for 2009 i'm looking at something like 55% 2008, 30% 2007, 15% 2006 with adjustments made for age, ballpark, injuries, etc.
| ]I figure Perez and Hernandez are gone, so the way things stand now I consider Niese as part of the rotation. |
Hernandez wasn't part of the '08 team anyway so whats he got to do with anything? right now you have 1 guy (perez) who needs replacing and 1 more spot (the spot that was filled by Martinez + a managerie of spot starters)
| ]I know this is really not a good point business wise but Heilman has always wanted to be a starter.
For this team, he has always done whats been asked of him and he has paid his dues.
It's a fact he can pitch at the major league level.
He should be given what he requests.
A shot at a spot or a trade.
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thats not a good point baseball wise forgetting business.
i don't believe in "paying your dues" you get "paid your money" so shutup and do as you're told.
it's fact that he has never pitched succesfully as a MLB starter and its fact that he's coming off a terrible year.
he shouldn't be given what he requests, he should be given precisely what is best for the New York Mets winning as many baseball games as possible in 2009.
| ]It's too bad the moronic fans ruined things. |
yeah, its the fans fault that he walks people and gives up homers. thats blaming the victims.
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duan
Nov 21 2008 06:35 AM
here's where i stand
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I hated the line of
"he's too important to the bullpen"
the fact of the matter is a bullpen arm is a lot less expensive to replace then a starting one.
Ryan Dempster's getting a $52 million contract on the basis of last seasons starting stats, not on his bullpen performance of the previous 3 years or so. The best 2/3 relievers in the market will be lucky to get in the that range.
So if you will, be Aaron Heillman and compare your career arcs to Mr Dempsters and see whether in two years time you'd prefer to have had a decent run at starting to see whether you could be as good a starter as you were a reliever in 06 & 07
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metsmarathon
Nov 21 2008 07:09 AM
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| ]why should the prior years count more? if i'm projecting a guy for 2009 i'm looking at something like 55% 2008, 30% 2007, 15% 2006 with adjustments made for age, ballpark, injuries, etc. |
well, if we give him no credit whatsoever for being injured last year, the above formula gives us the following approximate line:
80.2 IP
74 H
38 ER
9 HR
36 BB
74 SO
4.26 ERA
which strikes me as at least serviceable, and definitely not "sucks"
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Frayed Knot
Nov 21 2008 07:34 AM
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| ]the comparison fails because of the different ages and points into their professional careers where they were then |
It's not perfect, but also not as huge as you're making it out to be.
Yes, Heilman was two years older than Pelfrey during his early days as a starter (although Pelfrey was a pro earlier on accout of being drafted as a College Jr. rather than as a Sr.) but the results as a starter over pieces of their first 3 seasons aren't all that dissimilar:
AH: 135 IP, 5.85 ERA; 1.49 WHiP
MP: 150 IP; 5.34 ERA; 1.71 WHiP
And, again, I'm not trying to claim that they're the same pitcher or paint a rosy picture of Heilman's 2008 season (he stunk) but rather I'm against this idea of relying solely on limited data from that early in a career to show that he not only wasn't good at it but also as 'proof' that he never can be.
Apply that same standard to Pelfrey or just about any other young pitcher and a big chunk of hurlers in MLB would never have been given the chance to get to where they got.
I think the death of Heilman as a starter was more a product of Peterson's reaction to his pitching motion than it was due to his early career struggles.
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Edgy DC
Nov 21 2008 08:14 AM
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Limited data is limited data whether you're 22 or 32.
I'd like to have seen Heilman get a start or two or three last year to see if it helped him make the adjustments he needed to make. If he did modestly well, it might have made him a better releiver. If he did very well, we'd have an opportunity.
As it was, he threw the most dis-spiriting ball four since Kenny Rogers.
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