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="Rockin' Doc":2f85rmx6]If the economy doesn't show significant improvement in the next 3-4 years, then I wouldn't put it past Hillary to pull a Salmon Chase maneuver and launch a bid for the Democratic nomination in 2012.[/quote:2f85rmx6]
I was convinced partway into his 1st term that Bill C. was going to be challenged from within for the '96 nomination until the Republican midterm victories in the House & Senate made the Dems realize that an internal fight was the last thing they needed and instead rallied around him.
I always thought it a bit ironic that the huge-ness of the Repub gains in '94 was perhaps the best thing that happened to his presidency. Smaller gains that would have been big enough to embarrass the Dems but fall short of putting Gingrich et al in change of Capitol Hill might have produced a different story in the '96 election season.
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G-Fafif
Dec 05 2008 05:23 AM
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This is more for the Presidential Race 1996 thread, but when Newt shut down the government in '95, he ensured Bill's re-election in '96. Simplification, but that was the turning point, I believe. The Contract With America gang was very good at listening to its own echo chamber, never getting that its long-overdue takeover of Congress (considering how many southern Dems had held on long past the region's switch) was not a nationwide endorsement of everything they cheerled. (Their comrades in the executive branch took a disputed electoral plurality and ran with it in a similar and, for worse or worser, more "successful" fashion, but that's for Presidential Race 2000, I suppose.)
Anybody who's promising to bring common sense back to America might want to think about squaring that statement with running a quasi-campaign three years and eleven months ahead of the next election day.
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Frayed Knot
Dec 05 2008 06:43 AM
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That's probably about right - even if the horrors of the short-term gov't "shutdown" were vastly overblown.
Gingrich was brilliant at coming to power but, a bit like the dog who constantly chases cars, not quite sure what to do once he got the prize. I guess you could argue the Repubs were too out of practice but they found out that wanting it was easier than actually doing it.
After that they pretty much abandoned the fiscal conservatism that at least partially defined their cause and have suffered from wishy-washy party leaders ever since.
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Edgy DC
Dec 05 2008 07:09 AM
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Sure, I'll post if we're talking about past politics.
Gingrich partnered with Clinton in downsizing the gummint and giving us our surpluses. They delivered on that contract, for better or for worse.
Where they overplayed their hands, I think, was following through on the impeachment while their pants were down.
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 05 2008 07:16 AM
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When are we going to start the 2016 thread?
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Frayed Knot
Dec 05 2008 08:49 AM
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| ="Edgy DC"]Gingrich partnered with Clinton in downsizing the gummint and giving us our surpluses. They delivered on that contract, for better or for worse. |
Gov't never got downsized. The 'Contract w/Amer' was essentially a series of symbolic mini-reforms mostly about how Congress did business and had little to do with any real downsizing.
There was probably a decline in the rate of growth (which many in Washington refer to as cuts) and it was funny to hear the differences in Clinton's inaugauration speech; 'Gov't can do more, Gov't will do more', and his State of the Union following the repub victories just two yers later; 'The era of big gov't is over'.
The surplusses came via the dot.com era boom in tax revenues which neither side caused to happen nor could have prevented.
| ]Where they overplayed their hands, I think, was following through on the impeachment while their pants were down. |
That too, but he was already into his 2nd term by then.
But my main point (back to the topic of Hillary thinking about 2012) was that the threat of power in the opposite hands at the other end of Penn Ave that acted as a reason for the Dems to rally around Bill Clinton and as a disincentive for anyone to challenge him from within. Barack would have to stumble pretty bad for that to happen here and he's already off to a better start than BC.
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HahnSolo
Dec 05 2008 09:37 AM
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If Obama has a good first two years, I think we'll get a Bob Dole-like sacrificial lamb from the Republicans in 2012. I don't think any of their so called young hotshots (the Louisiana governor for one) would go up in a no-win election v. a strong Obama.
I think they'll find a veteran congressman or senator to get the glory of representing his party, even with no shot at a win. Who that is, I don't know. Maybe it is Huckabee.
If Obama shows any sign of weakness, however, I think Huckabee, Palin, Jindal (is that his name) from Louisiana, will be there among others. Then we'll need the obligatory celebrity (maybe the governator?).
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Edgy DC
Dec 05 2008 09:51 AM
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Boy, would that piss off Leo C. Donofrio.
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 05 2008 09:51 AM
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Governator can't run for President.
Actually, I guess he can run, but if elected he can't serve.
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G-Fafif
Dec 05 2008 12:51 PM
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| ="Benjamin Grimm"]Governator can't run for President.
Actually, I guess he can run, but if elected he can't serve. |
Sounds like a pitch to me: Mr. Smith Goes to Washington meets Brewster's Millions.
| ]V/O: Meet the governor of the nation's largest state.
He's famous.
He's popular.
He's foreign-born.
He wants to run for president.
And he can be elected.
But he...can't be sworn in?
See, if that'll stop him from running!
(Music Cue: "I Feel Good")
V/O: Adam Sandler is Arnold Schwarzenegger in the political comedy from Touchstone Films that will touch your heart...
Not So Fast There, Mr. President!
SANDLER: Vat you mean I can't be president? But I am da Babe Root of politics!
DAVID PAYMER: How's that, sir?
SANDLER: I had a better year dan him!
V/O: Rated PG-2012 |
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John Cougar Lunchbucket
Dec 05 2008 12:59 PM
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I'd buy that for a dollar.
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Gwreck
Dec 05 2008 02:57 PM
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Schwarzenegger is far more likely to run for Barbara Boxer's senate seat in California in 2010.
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sharpie
Dec 05 2008 02:59 PM
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Except that he doesn't want to live in Washington. He doesn't live in Sacramento.
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Benjamin Grimm
Dec 16 2008 07:20 AM
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I understand that Mac Manc McManx is going to run in 2012.
I fear, though, that he will just be a puppet, with the evil Bucky Katt pulling the strings.
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