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Prospect Ranking Time

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2008 10:03 AM

Mostly by coincidence, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and independent prospect guru John Sickels are all expected to do their NYM prospect reviews in the next week or so. BP kicks it off (and their list goes to eleven): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8376 Four-Star Prospects 1. Fernando Martinez, CF 2. Wilmer Flores, SS 3. Jefry Marte, 3B Three-Star Prospects 4. Brad Holt, RHP 5. Jon Niese, LHP 6. Reese Havens, SS 7. Jenrry Mejia, RHP Two-Star Prospects 8. Ike Davis, 1B 9. Bobby Parnell, RHP 10. Eddie Kunz, RHP 11. Scott Moviel, RHP Just Missed: Dillon Gee, RHP; Francisco Pena, C; Cesar Puello, OF Ranking Challenges: The question of whether Martinez or Flores should be number one haunted me for a while, but in the end I saw Flores as what Martinez was a few years ago, except that Martinez has since accomplished something at the upper levels. From there it's a mix that is difficult to sort between players nearly ready and players just drafted, and there are realistically eight to ten solid candidates for the bottom three slots. Not quite sure how to define what they mean by 5-Star, 4-Star, etc, other than the obvious fact that more is better. They (specifically Kevin Goldstein) seems to be pretty generous and I wouldn't take a high rating as any kind of guarantee for future success. There are more in-depth breakdowns of each guy for anyone who has a subscription.

Edgy DC Dec 16 2008 10:14 AM

Surprised to see Marte get that sort of attention 40 games into his career. http://www.facebook.com/people/Jefrey-Marte/525620368 How many five-star guys are out there?

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2008 10:27 AM

[quote="Edgy DC"]Surprised to see Marte get that sort of attention 40 games into his career.

The promise over substance theory.

How many five-star guys are out there?

Looks like he's slapped a 5-Star rank on 9 guys after reviewing 10 teams -- so figure about 30 or so for all MLB by the time he's done unless the AL teams he hasn't tackled yet are more (or less) heavily loaded than the NL.
A guy like Sickels is much stricter when he hands out his letter grades. Only the "sure-fire" guys get them meaning maybe 10 for the whole league.

A Boy Named Seo Dec 16 2008 10:37 AM

Never heard of Marte. He related to Andy? They're both from the DR.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 16 2008 10:41 AM

44 games in the Gulf Coast League: Jefry Marte Worst spelling of "Jeffrey" ever, by the way.

Edgy DC Dec 16 2008 10:42 AM

That's "Geoffrey."

smg58 Dec 16 2008 10:48 AM

A lot of absolute beginners on this list. I don't know if that's good or bad.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 16 2008 10:50 AM

Just nmakes sense. Anyone close the the majors in the Mets's system is already on the team or gets traded away.

metirish Dec 16 2008 10:55 AM

Maybe it's me but I don't hear a lot of hype regarding Fernando Martinez anymore which I think is a good thing. Jenrry , never saw that name before , not a typo is it?

attgig Dec 16 2008 01:50 PM

F-Mart lost all his hype with the injuries that he's constantly battled. If he can get through a whole season being 100% healthy, he'll shoot back up, imo.

Frayed Knot Dec 19 2008 10:09 AM

BA chimes in with their list: 1. Fernando Martinez, of 2. Wilmer Flores, ss 3. Jonathon Niese, lhp 4. Brad Holt, rhp 5. Bobby Parnell, rhp 6. Jefry Marte, 3b 7. Jenrry Mejia, rhp 8. Reese Havens, ss 9. Nick Evans, 1b/of 10. Eddie Kunz, rhp And added in a look at various tools: Best Hitter for Average - Wilmer Flores Best Power Hitter - Fernando Martinez Best Strike-Zone Discipline - Reese Havens Fastest Baserunner - Javier Rodriguez Best Athlete - Greg Veloz Best Fastball - Brad Holt Best Curveball - Jon Niese Best Slider - Brent Rustich Best Changeup - Dillon Gee Best Control - Dillon Gee Best Defensive Catcher - Mike Nickeas Best Defensive Infielder - Ruben Tejada Best Infield Arm - Shawn Bowman Best Defensive Outfielder - Kirk Nieuwenheis Best Outfield Arm - Ambiorix Concepcion There'll be a 2PM on-line chat about this list and other things Met (hosted by Fo-CPF Adam Rubin) but it's only open to those with accounts at BA.

Frayed Knot Dec 21 2008 08:44 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 21 2008 10:44 AM

And now John Sickels weighs in. SYSTEM IN BRIEF: The Mets continue to make a big push in Latin America, and they seem to have a knack for finding some interesting pitchers in the later rounds of the draft. They like to rush guys quickly, particularly pushing the Latin American kids hard, F-Mart being the best example. Whether this helps or hinders development remains to be seen. They could use more depth in position players. They have the financial resources to be a lot more aggressive in the draft than they have been, so there’s really no excuse for this NOT to be a good farm system. I think it ranks about the middle of the pack right now. They have made significant progress and there is quite a bit of upside here, but more needs to be done. 1) Wilmer Flores, SS-3B, Grade B+: I might take some flack for this, but in this case I think his upside is higher than F-Mart. If I could have just one of them, I’d pick Flores. 2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors. 3) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: I’ve liked him since high school. He’s not an ace but should be a fine inning-eater. 4) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Niese, but not as refined and command still needs work. 5) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B: Assuming he’s healthy, I think he’s going to be a strong across-the-board player with a high OBP. 6) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Could be a star if it all comes together, but still rather raw. Considering B- but for me that’s aggressive for a rookie ball guy. 7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade C+ Pitching version of Marte: lots of talent, but skills are in the developmental stages and may not pan out. 8) Bobby Parnell, RHP, Grade C+: Stats don’t match scouting reports, but he has a good sinker and could be an effective setup man. 9) Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade C+: Another bullpen option who gets ground balls. 10) Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+: Held his own after being rushed, which you have to respect, but he may just be a good platoon bat, not a regular. 11) Ike Davis, 1B-OF, Grade C+: I will cut him some slack for now. If he can’t hit, he could convert to pitching due to his strong arm. He actually goes a full top-20 (follow link) or even more if you buy his book. What I like about his analysis is that he provides not just a raw list but the grades and explanations. He's also an admittedly hard marker who isn't given to breathless over-hyping of every teenager who has a decent stretch nor is he likely to discard a guy like last night's fish on account of a bad one. That doesn't mean he's not going to be wrong now and then, but he's looking at the big picture. Some of the comments tacked on by regular readers of his site can be informative too, so long as you keep in mind that at least some are from paranoid Met fans who think that anything other than across the board A+s are proof of anti-NYM bias, while others spring form the minds of fantasy stat-nerds who just know that their reading of minor league stats combined with the two times they might have seen a guy gives them better insight into each guy's future than either that of Sickels or the professional scouts he talks to.

Frayed Knot Dec 21 2008 08:51 AM

Sickels grading system: Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases. Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role. Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all. A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected. Also note that there is diversity within each category. I’m a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed. Finally, keep in mind that all grades are just shorthand for the actual analysis of the player. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

MFS62 Dec 21 2008 11:37 AM

And, a footnote to FK's post. IIRC Sickels only awards about 20-30 A rankings in any given hear. Later

Frayed Knot Dec 21 2008 01:40 PM

If that, 10-15 might be more like it. In the comments section, Sickels responds to a question about where he would have rated Murphy if he were still eligible: Grade B-, a very strong role player but not a star.

Frayed Knot Dec 22 2008 09:44 AM

The best of what we gave to Seattle in exchange for Putz (acc to BA): Maikel Cleto, rhp, Born: May 1, 1989. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 218. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2006. Cleto has the highest ceiling of the three prospects the Mariners acquired from the Mets in the three-team, 12-player deal. Managers rated Cleto's fastball as the best in the low Class A South Atlantic League last year, when he topped out at 100 mph. Unlike many young, hard throwers, he has an idea of where the ball is going. "Anyone who throws 91-98 and a ton of strikes, you have to pay attention," one scout said. Cleto has a strong body that allowed him to log 141 innings as a teenager in 2008, and Mets officials raved about his work ethic. However, he's far from a finished product. His slurvy breaking ball and changeup need to get a lot better if he's going to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. His delivery can be a little violent at times, too. He's erratic in terms of results, showing no-hit stuff one day and the inability to get out of the first inning the next. Cleto should start his Mariners career in high Class A.

Benjamin Grimm Dec 22 2008 09:54 AM

Tony Bernazard said that Cleto was the guy he most regretted giving up.

Frayed Knot Jan 10 2009 10:44 AM

[quote="MFS62":1g9isi0v]And, a footnote to FK's post. IIRC Sickels only awards about 20-30 A rankings in any given year.[/quote:1g9isi0v] And the answer is (for this year anyway) [u:1g9isi0v]19[/u:1g9isi0v] 'A' or 'A-' grades. Texas P Neftali Perez, A 1B Justin Smoak, A- SS Elvus Andrus, A- FLA OF Cameron Maybin, A- 1B Logan Morrison, A- OAK P Trevor Cahill, A- P Brett Anderson, A- ATL OF Jason Heyward, A- TAM P David Price, A KCR 3B Mike Moustakas, A- BAL C Matt Wieters, A BOS 1B Lars Anderson, A- SF P Madison Bumgarner, A C Buster Posey, A- STL OF Colby Rasmus, A- 3B Brett Wallace, A- TOR OF Travis Snider, A- PIT 3B Pedro Alvarez, A- COL OF Dexter Fowler, A- DET P Rick Porcello, A-

Edgy DC Mar 28 2009 09:31 AM

[quote="Frayed Knot":2jhe5c9l]Best Outfield Arm - Ambiorix Concepcion[/quote:2jhe5c9l] Amby signed an offseason minor league free agent deal with Baltimore.

Edgy DC Aug 31 2009 10:37 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 31 2009 12:37 PM

Here's an end-of-season ranking (though it's not quite the end, yet) from Joe DeMayo at Mike Silva's blog. I really can't say what his credentials are. Ike is up. Flores is down a little. Tejada sits just outside the top ten. Kunz is dropping like a rock. Juan Urbina debuts at #17, Matz at #20, Dotson at #25. Fun sightings include Shawn Bowman (#42) and Hector Pellot (#44), both of whom were playing themselves out of prospect status before stabilizing a bit this year.

MFS62 Aug 31 2009 12:35 PM

As I've mentioned, I listen to many Buffalo games when driving home from work. The station actually comes in better than ESPN radio out of New York. Ken Oberkfell hasn't been using Kunz in key situations for most of the year. Maybe that's because his ERA has looked like the model number for a Boeing airliner. To say he is "dropping like a rock" is being kind. Later

Frayed Knot Aug 31 2009 02:52 PM

Kunz has been walking too many (30 in 58 IPs) and getting hit around by too many LHBs to warrant key situations. Plus, that he was picked out of college 3 drafts now ago at a position (RP) where one usually makes the big leagues most quickly, merely treading water is, in effect, moving backwards and he's barely treading water.