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Playoff Odds Report

Frayed Knot Sep 05 2005 12:02 AM

The recent losing stretch dropped us to less than a 9% chance of making the playoffs: 1.3% shot at winning the division, 7.5% of the WC, according to the 'Baseball Prospectus' odds chart. Philly - 38.5%, Houston - 31.1%, & Florida - 22.75% were considerably ahead. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php At one point last week we were up in the mid-30s pct range but things are going to change more rapidly now as the time to make up for lost ground dwindles. Sunday's games - where our win combined with all except Washington (and they're behind us anyway) losing - should improve matters when they get around to updating the info.

Elster88 Sep 05 2005 02:05 AM

Washington was (as of the start of yesterday) and is ahead of us by half a game. _____________________________ This post was under the designation 164) Keith Miller

Rotblatt Sep 05 2005 08:48 AM

And indeed, we moved up a bit, going to a 1.30613% for the division, 7.51038% for the wild card and 8.81650 overall. It's worth mentioning that we have the best adjusted run differential of all wild card contenders--better, in fact, than the Braves--so if we start moving ahead of other contenders, our odds will increase pretty dramatically. That's a pretty big if, however, given our poor play of late.

MFS62 Sep 05 2005 09:23 AM

The only time run differential means anything is at the end of nine innings. Thanks for the update. Later

Frayed Knot Sep 05 2005 01:04 PM

]And indeed, we moved up a bit, going to a 1.30613% for the division, 7.51038% for the wild card and 8.81650 overall. Those were the odds before Sunday's games were counted. Now it's up to: 2.79% for the division and 12.21% for the WC, or 15..00% shot at post-season all together. ]Washington was (as of the start of yesterday) and is ahead of us by half a game. Yes, but behind us in this particular playoff odds chart. That's where the RS/RA ratio comes in; this method figures the Mets to win more from here on out than the Nats because our run differential is considerably better.

Elster88 Sep 05 2005 04:12 PM

Another two run effort by the Metsies. _____________________________ This post was under the designation 164) Keith Miller

Frayed Knot Sep 06 2005 11:48 AM

The results of Monday's games drops us to: 1.63% (division) + 10.44% (WC) = 12.07% shot of the playoffs. Also the Cards become the first team to hit the 100% mark; they're listed at 99.9991% to win their division and have the remaining 0.0009% chance at the WC if they happen to collapse in the Central.

old original jb Sep 06 2005 03:18 PM

I'm satisfied that management has delivered what was promised: the new Mets are losing meaningful games in September.

Willets Point Sep 06 2005 04:54 PM

I hate this thread.

Frayed Knot Sep 07 2005 11:42 AM

Well you're gonna hate it even more now: Including Tuesday's games: Division = .712% Wild Card = 7.801% Total = 8.513%

old original jb Sep 08 2005 09:10 AM And not just losing meaningful games in September

Whole series, too!

Rockin' Doc Sep 08 2005 12:59 PM

Division = .712% Wild Card = 7.801% Total = 8.513% That's being generous if you ask me. I would personally set the odds sigificantly lower. Rockin' Doc's odds on the Mets making the playoffs in 2005:* Division = When Atlanta freezes over. Wild Card = When hell freezes over. *I know, the two are pretty much interchangeable.

MFS62 Sep 08 2005 01:33 PM

What's the over/ under date for when we'll be off the board? My guess is September 29th. That will be a nice friggin' birthday present for me. Later

Rotblatt Sep 08 2005 01:55 PM

I'll bite the bullet here. Updated odds: 0.23518 for division 4.91281 for WC 5.14800 for Playoffs overall. Astros are the heavy favorites at 54.66%, with the Fish behind at 20.39107% We're still ahead of the Nats despite their 1.5 game advantage. After glancing at the BP Adjusted Standings Report, we are now 7 games below projections, officially making us the most unlucky team in the majors this season so far. The Braves are 6.1 games above projections. Based on strength of schedule & run differential, we should be atop the NL East with a 77-62 record--2 games ahead of the Braves Bizarre, isn't it?

Willets Point Sep 08 2005 02:37 PM

On paper I'm 6' 7" with well-defined pecs and abs to die for and a body fat index in the single digits. Real life sucks compared to the projections.

Edgy DC Sep 08 2005 02:47 PM

You've also got a huge gun.

MFS62 Sep 08 2005 02:53 PM

That may be too much information. Later

Willets Point Sep 08 2005 03:07 PM

This will be funny when I change my avatar and you can no longer see Edgy's reference.

Elster88 Sep 08 2005 03:10 PM

I miss the days when you ejected toast. _____________________________ This post had the designation 160) Kaz Matsui