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Livan Looking to Lock, IGT vs. Atlanta, 3/18

Edgy DC Mar 18 2009 10:34 AM

Our Metro Rican players aren't in the lineup yet as the Mets plan to run some of Livan's competitors out there after him, but I'm guessing a shutout performance against the Braves seals it for him, and a rocky performance rings Pedro's phone. That Hanson is supposedly a future star for the Braves, and it would send a nice message toward the long-term viability of that plan if we could mmm-bop! him today. Atlanta New York Anderson, J, CF Schafer, RF Johnson, 2B Kotchman, 1B Escobar, SS Prado, 3B Jones, B, LF Boscan, C Hanson, P Reyes, J, SS Castillo, 2B Murphy, LF Tatis, 3B Church, RF Evans, 1B Reed, CF Rivera, R, C Hernandez, P

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 18 2009 10:37 AM

I'm not gonna count out the Chief until he proves he's the absolute worst option out there. What I'm saying is, Hernandez can only do his cause good with a strong performance today but if Freddy somehow turns in a strong performance next, you better change those locks.

duan Mar 18 2009 10:48 AM

weird trivia. I worked on the Hanson tour back in 1998 and they were very nice young gentlemen.

MFS62 Mar 18 2009 11:03 AM

duan wrote: weird trivia. I worked on the Hanson tour back in 1998. Was it you? Or was it Lady Caca? Later

duan Mar 18 2009 11:08 AM

lady gaga was about 11 so I doubt it. for a bunch of new yorkers you're not very hip to one of your own who's sold over a million albums worldwide in the last 3 months.

Edgy DC Mar 18 2009 11:09 AM

Sales shmales. Show me your soul.

seawolf17 Mar 18 2009 11:14 AM

Edgy DC wrote: Sales shmales. Show me your soul. Or your Lady Ta-tas. What? Just beating fman to the punch.

bmfc1 Mar 18 2009 11:15 AM

Edgy, you've raised the bar for posting lineups. I won't be able to cut and paste from Rubin's blog any longer. Nicely done.

duan Mar 18 2009 11:30 AM

she actually rocks and has a lot going on upstairs.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 18 2009 11:40 AM

She looks like Edgar Winter.

Fman99 Mar 18 2009 11:48 AM

="duan"]weird trivia. I worked on the Hanson tour back in 1998 and they were very nice young gentlemen. They were guys? /starts ripping posters down

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 18 2009 12:11 PM

="Fman99"] ="duan"]weird trivia. I worked on the Hanson tour back in 1998 and they were very nice young gentlemen. They were guys? /starts ripping posters down wham. Tatis by the way mmmBopped a HR in the first inning. Livan is throwing a shutout thru 4.

Edgy DC Mar 18 2009 12:14 PM

The Mets lead 2-0, on a first inning shot by Fernando Tatis. Four two-hit shuthout innings by Livan, with two strikeous and no walks.

smg58 Mar 18 2009 12:58 PM

Garcia's 6th inning didn't exactly narrow the gap with Livan.

Edgy DC Mar 18 2009 01:00 PM

Nosir.

MFS62 Mar 18 2009 01:04 PM

You cannot stop Martin Prado. You can olny hope to contain him. Garcia couldn't. Later

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 18 2009 02:01 PM

POP QUIZ: If Martin Prado is, to paraphrase Baseball Prospectus, a Poor Man's Omar Infante, then Freddy Garcia is a Poor Man's... ?

metirish Mar 18 2009 02:06 PM

Bartolo Colon ?

attgig Mar 18 2009 02:19 PM

we're wasting innings that other pitchers can prove themselves during spring training. send him to minor league camp, or cut him.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 18 2009 02:47 PM

Was thinking Matt Morris, but the judges will accept "Clogged" Colon.

Edgy DC Mar 18 2009 02:57 PM

attgig wrote: we're wasting innings that other pitchers can prove themselves during spring training. send him to minor league camp, or cut him. He threw two innings on March 18th, in an attempt to possibly challenge Livan Hernandez --- a guy with a 6.05 ERA in 2008 --- for the fifth starter spot. How were those innings misappropriated?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 18 2009 03:18 PM

attgig wrote: we're wasting innings that other pitchers can prove themselves during spring training. send him to minor league camp, or cut him. I don't really get this. I mean, if Freddy's issue is only a matter of arm strength and if there's a chance that getting it back in "training" means he regains something of his old form, then sending him out there for all these beatings will have been well worth it once the games start to count. And it's a long shot for sure but as it is I don't see a very long line of other candidates getting gypped out of innings and if it's really in or out with the Chief I don't see the rush to cut bait. They're seeing plenty of Brandon Knight already I think. And though they've been better it's not like Niese and Livan have been lights-out. I also don't trust Livan not to break down or encounter an injury over the next few weeks, it'll happen someday...

attgig Mar 18 2009 03:26 PM

there's still a bullpen to sort out. we have If they gave up on duaner so much earlier than they had to, why not do the same for freddie? same goes for cherry. I don't see what they're getting back in sending Freddy out there. and if it's about him regaining arm strength, he can do that in sim games or in minor league camp. I acknowledge that having the wbc going on definitely helps in having extra innings to throw at guys, but I think having freddy still throwing is inconsistant with what they're doing with duaner and cherry.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 18 2009 03:39 PM

Many more candidates for the pen than the rotation, for one. Also, I'm guessing here, but the Mets prolly knew better what they were looking for from Sanchez in terms of progress. Seems like Cherry in the meantime would be a Rule 5 flier that still might work if they're able to re-sign him and stash him in the minors.

attgig Mar 18 2009 04:10 PM

right. so, 2 innings in the 5th inning. give them to the relievers.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 18 2009 04:24 PM

There aren't any "wasted" innings. Even if this weren't an absurdly long training camp-- and it is-- that would be the case. If you do the math, it's fairly evident. If the team plays every day, and all but the 25-man plus 5-10 others have been reassigned to minor-league camp, AND a handful of folk are or have been (through last night) WBCing it... there are no wasted innings. If anything, they've been raiding the minor-league camp for warm bodies, especially for the away games (see: Kyle Snyder, Eddie Kunz).

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 18 2009 06:26 PM

Jerry Sez: Livan brings "a little different energy." Apparently, he WASN'T referring exclusively to gravitational pull. ]PORT ST. LUCIE -- Jerry Manuel came very close this afternoon to declaring Livan Hernandez as the Mets' fifth starter after Hernandez tossed five innings of one-run ball against the Braves while Freddy Garcia struggled badly. Manuel stopped short of officially naming Hernandez as the Mets' No. 5 but raved about the veteran right-hander. Fellow fifth-starter candidates Garcia and Jonathon Niese haven't gotten nearly as glowing reviews from the manager. "He has a good presence about him on the mound and in the dugout," Manuel said of Hernandez, who is in camp on a minor-league contract. "It's like he brings a little different energy for us. I would have to say he's put himself in a real good position." Hernandez's effort today, which included three strikeouts and no walks, lowered his spring ERA to 3.07. Garcia, meanwhile, was bombed this afternoon and is sporting a 16.71 ERA. Manuel tellingly would not commit to any more spring-training starts for Garcia, who like Hernandez is in camp on a minor-league deal as Garcia tries to come back from reconstructive shoulder surgery.

Edgy DC Mar 18 2009 08:55 PM

attgig wrote: right. so, 2 innings in the 5th inning. give them to the relievers. Which relievers do you think have been neglected?

TheOldMole Mar 18 2009 10:21 PM

Some guy was trying to produce a Hanson concert at Opus 40 a few years ago, gave me a CD of their new stuff. Good.

Nymr83 Mar 19 2009 06:02 AM

I don't care how well he's pitched in the spring, i'm not comfortable with a "34" (haha) year-old pitcher who had ERAs of 6.05, 4.93 and 4.83 along with WHIPs of 1.67!, 1.60, and 1.50 the past 3 years. 3 years and 600 innings have shown he's got nothing left, a few spring training innings wont change my mind. I think a merry-go-round of young guys (Niese, Knight, Parnell, whatever) would produce better results. Even if these guys failed we'd at least be getting them quality experience for the future (or determining that their future isn't here.)

Benjamin Grimm Mar 19 2009 07:26 AM

I'm reminded of the outstanding spring David Cone had in 2003.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 19 2009 09:50 AM

Nymr83 wrote: I don't care how well he's pitched in the spring, i'm not comfortable with a "34" (haha) year-old pitcher who had ERAs of 6.05, 4.93 and 4.83 along with WHIPs of 1.67!, 1.60, and 1.50 the past 3 years. 3 years and 600 innings have shown he's got nothing left, a few spring training innings wont change my mind. I think a merry-go-round of young guys (Niese, Knight, Parnell, whatever) would produce better results. Even if these guys failed we'd at least be getting them quality experience for the future (or determining that their future isn't here.) A) Knight is 32 years old, and, with an ERA+ of 81 last year, is the very definition of "replacement level." (At least Figs is a local guy.) B) If part of the issue is getting Niese to build confidence and precision, how would getting shelled every other time out-- and getting reamed out for it in the press for the two days following-- help with getting him to trust his stuff and not overthrow (his primary issue last year)? (NOTE: The ONLY case in which I believe in the "handling New York" thing is when a player is relatively unformed.) C) Parnell, organizationally, is slotted for the bullpen. The matter at issue with him is that he's still learning to hold onto command while going "all-out" for 30 pitches at a time. (He typically throws his fastball at 90-92 when starting; he ramps it up to 96-plus when he rears back and THROWS.) Slotting him into a spot-start/5th-starter role kinda goes against what management has planned for him, then, no? C) Granted, last year was a washout. But an ERA of 4.83-4.93 and ERA+ of slightly-worse-than-league-average (say, 92-95)-- highly-doable goals, no?-- would put him about a half-run ahead of the spot's performance last year (5.31 cumulative, between Pedro and the sidekicks), and better than a serviceable Trachsel in 2006 (4.97, 88).

metirish Mar 19 2009 09:53 AM

Not to be taken lightly is the issue of who among this group can handle the unique pressure of playing in NY . I do believe Livan can handle that. SC turned all the way up to 11

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 19 2009 10:00 AM

Har.

Nymr83 Mar 19 2009 01:41 PM

="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"] A) Knight is 32 years old, and, with an ERA+ of 81 last year, is the very definition of "replacement level." (At least Figs is a local guy.) that was over TWELVE INNINGS he had a 2.28 with a sub-1 whip in 43 innings at AAA, he might not be anyone idea of great but he has a better chance than livan to give you something ]B) If part of the issue is getting Niese to build confidence and precision, how would getting shelled every other time out-- and getting reamed out for it in the press for the two days following-- help with getting him to trust his stuff and not overthrow (his primary issue last year)? (NOTE: The ONLY case in which I believe in the "handling New York" thing is when a player is relatively unformed.) Getting shelled worked to get Pelfrey the necessary experience. If you think Niese has what it takes to be a major leaguer then the experence, even if he gets shelled, should be good for him. and he likely won't be worse than livan. ]C) Parnell, organizationally, is slotted for the bullpen. The matter at issue with him is that he's still learning to hold onto command while going "all-out" for 30 pitches at a time. (He typically throws his fastball at 90-92 when starting; he ramps it up to 96-plus when he rears back and THROWS.) Slotting him into a spot-start/5th-starter role kinda goes against what management has planned for him, then, no? ah so THE plan is to make him a reliever, how dare we deviate from THE plan if it helps the team win. ]C) Granted, last year was a washout. But an ERA of 4.83-4.93 and ERA+ of slightly-worse-than-league-average (say, 92-95)-- highly-doable goals, no?-- would put him about a half-run ahead of the spot's performance last year (5.31 cumulative, between Pedro and the sidekicks), and better than a serviceable Trachsel in 2006 (4.97, 88). so your goal, and i think the best possible scenario, from livan is an ERA+ around 90. nevermind those other terrible scenarios (last year or worse), i wouldnt want to pencil a guy in whose best possible year is going to be below average. if you have to turn to Livan (or someone like him, such guys are always out there) inJue when 3 starters go down thats just the way it goes, but i wouldnt want to count on him to be part of the opening rotation when there are better options.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 19 2009 01:45 PM

Well, if Livan doesn't get it done he won't be the fifth starter for long. (Again, look at David Cone in 2003.) It's not worth getting worked up over. If, in May, Livan's getting knocked around and Niese is throwing shutouts for Buffalo, they'll make the change.

Edgy DC Mar 19 2009 01:52 PM

I'm going to state it again (and again) but an ERA+ of 100 is not an average performer, because the best performers get more innings.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 19 2009 04:54 PM

="Nymr83"] ="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"] A) Knight is 32 years old, and, with an ERA+ of 81 last year, is the very definition of "replacement level." (At least Figs is a local guy.) that was over TWELVE INNINGS he had a 2.28 with a sub-1 whip in 43 innings at AAA, he might not be anyone idea of great but he has a better chance than livan to give you something Admittedly, not the best stat choice-- I could have gone with quoting his career ERA+ of 51, but didn't think that would paint a fair picture of current-day Brandon Knight. But, yeah, 43 innings isn't much of a sample size, either. I still stand by my point, though-- to me, he's Nelson Figueroa with less of a story, and less melanin. What about Knight's toolset or ML performance makes you think that he has a better chance of a breakout at 32 over someone who has performed at well-above-replacement-level for extended periods of time in the not-too-distant past? (I'm not asking sarcastically... I really do want to know, having seen Knight's starts last year and not having coming away impressed by either the results or the process.) ] ]B) If part of the issue is getting Niese to build confidence and precision, how would getting shelled every other time out-- and getting reamed out for it in the press for the two days following-- help with getting him to trust his stuff and not overthrow (his primary issue last year)? (NOTE: The ONLY case in which I believe in the "handling New York" thing is when a player is relatively unformed.) Getting shelled worked to get Pelfrey the necessary experience. If you think Niese has what it takes to be a major leaguer then the experence, even if he gets shelled, should be good for him. and he likely won't be worse than livan. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Just 'cause Pelf got shelled and came out the other end doesn't mean that shelling MADE him. (BTW... I'm not sure I made my point clearly. I'm not arguing for sparing Niese from a shelling. I am arguing that if he's got a little more refining to do-- which most parties who've seen him agree on-- it's better if it occurs in a less-pressured environment than, say, a tabloid-loaded season following two consecutive pennant-race flops in the biggest city on earth. That sort of pressure tends to reinforce bad habits, rewarding/emphasizing short-term-results-by-any-means rather than development of and trust in one's skill set. But I'm not a professional pitching coach-- I may be wrong.) That said... "likely won't be worse than Livan?" If you want to use Pelf-- a more highly-touted prospect, making his debut in similar circumstances as Niese would face-- as a test balloon... Pelf's number's during OTJ training in 2006/07: 2006-- 5.48 ERA/1.73 WHIP/79 ERA+ 2007-- 5.57 ERA/1.71 WHIP/76 ERA+ Granted, they're not the same pitcher, and the same results are far from guaranteed. That said, Niese's mistakes tend to fly OUT of parks, not around them. If he's got a Pelf-type learning curve, his line will look much uglier. (MIND you... I'm not arguing against using Niese this year. I'm just arguing for weighing Livan's likely contributions properly. Speaking of which...) ] ]C) Granted, last year was a washout. But an ERA of 4.83-4.93 and ERA+ of slightly-worse-than-league-average (say, 92-95)-- highly-doable goals, no?-- would put him about a half-run ahead of the spot's performance last year (5.31 cumulative, between Pedro and the sidekicks), and better than a serviceable Trachsel in 2006 (4.97, 88). so your goal, and i think the best possible scenario, from livan is an ERA+ around 90. nevermind those other terrible scenarios (last year or worse), i wouldnt want to pencil a guy in whose best possible year is going to be below average. if you have to turn to Livan (or someone like him, such guys are always out there) inJue when 3 starters go down thats just the way it goes, but i wouldnt want to count on him to be part of the opening rotation when there are better options. When I meant "doable goal," I meant that this kind of result is a slightly-optimistic likely result-- almost right in the middle of Livan's bell curve of possible results for this year, given a substantial number of starts. I think that, given his history, that's as fair as assumptions get. His ceiling going forward is not as high as Niese's, in all likelihood. But his ceiling for this year-- I'll go out on a limb and guess, something like a high-3s/low-4s ERA, with a disproportionately high WHIP (1.5?), and 15-20 QS out of 25 (a good number likely at the low-quality end of qualifying QSes)-- is more likely than the same sort of achievement out of a man with 2 career ML starts. ] ]D) Parnell, organizationally, is slotted for the bullpen. The matter at issue with him is that he's still learning to hold onto command while going "all-out" for 30 pitches at a time. (He typically throws his fastball at 90-92 when starting; he ramps it up to 96-plus when he rears back and THROWS.) Slotting him into a spot-start/5th-starter role kinda goes against what management has planned for him, then, no? ah so THE plan is to make him a reliever, how dare we deviate from THE plan if it helps the team win. I'm addressing the situation as it is, as opposed to how it should be. The team seems to like him to relieve, and not to start... and judging from his numbers as a starter in the minors (meh) and his tool profile (plus fastball, plus slider with bite... with that fastball only touching "overwhelming" when he relieves-- he's only thrown 90-92 when starting).

Nymr83 Mar 19 2009 06:29 PM

]When I meant "doable goal," I meant that this kind of result is a slightly-optimistic likely result-- almost right in the middle of Livan's bell curve of possible results for this year, given a substantial number of starts. I think that, given his history, that's as fair as assumptions get. well i think thats where we disagree, i think the best numbers a 25 year old pitcher has put up in the last 3 years are his realistic ceiling going forward. there will always be excptions, but theres no reason to think he'll be one. i'd rather throw the young guy out there.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 19 2009 07:05 PM

It goes without saying that I hope very much that YOU'RE saying "I told you so"-- in a good way-- by June, right?