|
KTE - Cincinnati Reds - 2009
2008 Recap/2009 Outlook
The Reds were 74-88 last year, 5th in the NL Central; it was Dusty Baker’s first season as manager. The Reds’ last winning season was in 2000.
Although the Reds are clearly building a good core of young players, their starting pitching was pretty bad last year, including the unexpected struggles of Aaron Harang. Adam Dunn (traded midseason to Arizona) and Ken Griffey Jr. (contract expired; he went back to Seattle) are gone. The Reds will hit pretty well but will need good years from their young starting pitchers in order to compete. They won’t win the division but finishing in second with a run at the wild card is certainly a possibility.
Pitching Matchups
Monday, April 6
Aaron Harang (R) v. Johan Santana
This will be Harang’s fourth consecutive opening day start for Cincinnati. He is the longest-tenured Red, having been with the team since ’03.
Harang had pretty much identically-good seasons in ’06 (16-11, 3.76 ERA, 216 Ks – which lead the NL that year) and ’07 (16-6, 3.73 ERA, 218 Ks). In ’08, he struggled badly – a 6-17 record with a 4.78 ERA, and missed a month with a strained forearm. He did not face the Mets last year.
Wednesday, April 8
Edinson Volquez (R) v. Mike Pelfrey
Volquez was traded straight-up for Josh Hamilton and was an all-star last year, 17-6, 3.21 ERA with 206 Ks. Finished 4th in the ROY balloting.
The Mets saw Volquez last year on July 20 in Cincinnati where they got 4 ER and 8 hits including a big Ramon Castro homer in 5 innings.
Thursday, April 9
Bronson Arroyo (R) v. Oliver Perez
Arroyo was a solid innings eater (15-11, 4.77 ERA) last year for the Reds but had two outstanding performances agains the Mets. 1 run on 4 hits with 9 Ks in 8 innings on May 10 at Shea Stadium, and then 2 runs on 4 hits in 8 innings in Cincinnati on July 18. Arroyo has been suffering from a recent flare-up of carpal tunnel syndrome but he’s not expected to miss any time.
Early start for this game: 12:35 PM EDT.
Reds Lineup
Willy Taveras – CF (R)
Taveras stole 68 bases last year with Colorado to lead the NL (yes, he had more than Reyes) but had a career-low .251 batting average and .308 OBP. If he’s got a .320 batting average and .367 OBP as he did in ’07 then he’s a useful player.
Chris Dickerson – LF (L) / Jonny Gomes – LF (R)
Dickerson had only 100 ABs last year but showed some pop (1.062 OPS). Will platoon with Gomes, who had a bad 2008 and has never stuck as a full-time player. Jerry Hairston could see some action in left, too.
Joey Votto – 1B (L)
Votto made his major-league debut against the Mets in September of 2007 and in his second game (first start) he went 3 for 3 including a big home-run off John Maine, in this [url=http://archives.cranepoolforum.net/7200/f14_t7294.shtml]ugly loss by the Mets[/url]. (We got shut out for 6 innings by Tom Shearn, a 30-year old rookie).
Anyway, Votto’s been a complete stud since then. He was second to Geovanny Soto in last year’s ROY balloting. His 2008 numbers: 24 HR, 84 RBI, .297, .368 OBP.
Brandon Phillips – 2B (R)
Solid if unspectacular offensively 21-78-.261 AVG, .312 OBP, 23 steals last year. Outstanding defensively and a well-deserved Gold Glove winner last year.
Jay Bruce – RF (L)
21-52-.254, .312 OBP last year in 400 ABs. Turned 22 on Friday. Future star.
Edwin Encarnacion – 3B (R)
26-68-.251, .340 OBP last year. Not the slickest fielder.
Alex Gonzalez – SS (R)
Missed all of last year with a knee fracture. 16-55-.275 and .325 OBP in 2007 for the Reds.
Ramon Hernandez – 1B (R)
15-65-.257 with .308 OBP for Baltimore last year. After a good 2006 with the Orioles, he hasn’t done a ton to justify the 4 year deal he got in 05/06 offseason. It's not too sad that the Mets passed on him and got LoDuca/Schneider instead.
Bench
Jerry Hairston, Jr. (R)
Will get most of his PT in left field (or center, if Taveras doesn’t perform). .861 OPS in 283 ABs last year. Solid bench player and the Mets should’ve acquired him this past offseason (he signed a 1 year, $2M deal with the Reds).
Don’t count out Reds #5 starter Micah Owings (R), who makes some occasional pinch-hitting appearances. Was 17-for-56 (.306) as a hitter last year, and even better in 2007 (.333 with 4 homers).
Bullpen
Closer Francisco Cordero (R) is the highest paid player on the team. He wasn’t bad last year (34-for-40 in save opportunities with a 3.33 ERA in 70 innings) but he’s getting $12 million this year while the Mets pay Francisco Rodriguez $8.5 million.
David Weathers was the primary set-up man and had a decent year last season (3.25 ERA in 69 innings, 72 appearances).
Arthur Rhodes (L) is the top lefty and was a free agent signing (2 years, $4M) this offseason. 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 35 innings last year, split between Seattle and Florida.
Bill Bray (L) had a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings last year with 54 Ks. Jared Burton (R) was also pretty decent, 5-1 with 3.22 ERA in 58 innings, 58 Ks, 56 H, 25 BBs.
Opening Day Festivities
Frank Robinson will be the grand marshal of the opening day parade.
First pitch by Cincinnati native Nick Lachey.
Mets vs. Cincinnati on Opening Day
The Mets opened the 1984 season in Cincinnati. Mike Torrez was shelled and lasted only an inning and a third. The only run Mario Soto allowed over 9 innings was a homer by Darryl.
Cincinnati was also the site of the opening day debacle of 2005, where Pedro’s Mets debut (12 Ks in 6 innings) was ruined when Braden Looper entered the game in the 9th with a 6-4 lead and faced three batters: he gave up a single to Austin Kearns, a game-tying home run to Adam Dunn, and then the walkoff to Joe Randa. Bad times. The Mets wouldn’t win for a week after that disaster.
Weather
The [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.102357437817595&lon=-84.51919555664062&site=iln&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en]National Weather Service[/url] tells us we are getting snow and cold. Fun times!
A snow-out on Monday would almost certainly result in opening day being pushed to Tuesday afternoon and would wreak havoc with my travel plans. Let's all hope for good weather.
Ex-Reds
None
Ex-Mets
David Weathers
Essential Reds Blog
Red Reporter: [url]http://www.redreporter.com/[/url]
| 
