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The 54 Game Mark

Frayed Knot Jun 08 2009 11:57 AM

I usually like to take a look around the league at this point (1/3 of the season) because I think it's the earliest reasonable spot to look at a player's pace and project how that will look full-season. Doesn't mean it'll be accurate in the end, only that you've probably passed the ridiculous projections you'd get one were to do this in April. So below is a look at where each team was at their 54 game mark (some have played games since) plus I pulled a random player from each team who looked to be on some interesting pace and show where [u:1f7s83ao]his projected result[/u:1f7s83ao] would look at the end of the season. Philly: 32 - 22 Raul Ibanez: 57 HRs - 438 Total Bases; that’s versus career highs of 33 & 323 Mets: 29 - 25 David Wright: 9 HRs, 162 Ks, 39 SBs, 24 CS. I think it’s safe to say that he’s having a very odd year. Braves: 26 - 28 Jeff Francouer: 657 PAs, 21 BBs. He’s just never improved since the day he came up Marlins: 24 - 29 Josh Johnson: 223 IPs, 12 HRs allowed Nationals: 15 - 39 Team wins = 45, Adam Dunn HRs = 51 -- and that (one player’s HRs > team wins) has never happened in MLB history Cards: 31 - 23 Albert Pujols: 51 HRs; .346/.470/.698 (IOW: Yawn, just another boring year from Prince Albert) Brewers: 31 - 23 Trevor Hoffman: 48 IP, 18 H, 3 BBs (41 y/o) Reds: 28 - 26 Micah Owings (P) 27 Hits, 15 XBHs Cubs: 28 - 26 Aaron Heilman: 78 games (alas, no starts) 75 IP; 69 Hits; 51 BBs; 4.68 ERA Pirates: 25 - 29 Freddie Sanchez: 57 2Bs Astros: 24 - 30 Miguel Tejada: 666 ABs, 45 Ks Dodgers: 36 - 18 Orlando Hudson: 51 2Bs, .329/.410/.468 Giants: 28 - 26 Bengie Molina: 594 ABs, 6 BBs Padres: 25 - 29 Adrian Gonzalez: 66 HRs (21 at home) DBacks: 23 - 31 Mark Reynolds: 225 Ks Rockies: 22 - 32 Todd Helton: 39 2Bs, 21 HRs; .311/.376/..500 Not worth near the amount of money they’re still paying him off that monster contract from like 8 years ago, but he’s still plugging away. Red Sox: 32 - 22 David Ortiz: 3 HRs; .187/.281/.289 Yankees: 32 - 22 255 HRs hit (150 at home) and 225 HRs against (135 at home) Blue Jays: 30 - 24 Marco Scutaro: 63 XBHs ($2.65mil/2 yrs contract); Vernon Welles: 60 XBHs ($124mil/7yrs) Rays: 26 - 28 Evan Longoria: 99 XBHs Orioles: 24 - 30 Adam Jones: 33 HRs, 108 RBIs, .345/.399/.605 (I don't think they miss Eric Bedard) Tigers: 29 - 25 Justin Verlander: 291 Ks / 242 IPs Twins: 26 - 24 Joe Mauer: 36 HRs, .425 BA, 48 Ks Royals: 23 - 31 Zack Greinke: 273 Ks, 39 BBs White Sox: 25 - 29 Jim Thome: 108 Hits, 99 BBs Indians: 22 - 32 Carl Pavano = 189 IPs - vs 145 for ‘05-’08 combined Rangers: 32 - 22 Nelson Cruz (originally signed by the Mets) = 48 HRs Angles: 28 - 26 Brian Fuentes (K-Rod alternative): 45 Saves / 9 Blown Saves / 4.95 ERA A’s: 24 - 30 Matt Holliday: 57 XBHs vs 84 in ‘06, 92 in ‘07, 65 in ‘08 (miss Coors much?) Mariners: 26 - 28 Endy Chavez: 414 ABs; .283/.331/.355 That would be pretty good for the type of CFer he can be, except that he’s doing it mostly in LF which isn’t as good.

metirish Jun 08 2009 12:12 PM

Nice work , a lot of numbers there that jump out at you and a lot of numbers to chew on , especially if you're the GM that gave out the contracts. Wright and Ortiz are WOW numbers But the projected numbers for Greinke really jump out at me.....if he stays health he can achieve those I would think.

Nymr83 Jun 08 2009 12:15 PM

Adrian Gonzalez is having an amazing year, and its made all that much more amazing by the cavernous park in which he plays his home games. ]Nationals: 15 - 39 Team wins = 45 i'd LOVE to see the 62' Mets record fall to them, they could break the losses record without breaking the winning percentage if they go 41-121 (The Mets were 40-120). I feel like their hitting is too good for that to happen, and come the end of September they'll be a pathetic, but nowhere near record-breaking, 55 win team.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jun 08 2009 01:15 PM Re: The 54 Game Mark

="Frayed Knot"] Philly: 32 - 22 Raul Ibanez: 57 HRs - 438 Total Bases; that’s versus career highs of 33 & 323 Weird thing? Almost all of his rate stats-- walk rate, flyball %, BABIP, and the list goes on-- are in line with or just slightly off from his career averages. He's not hitting more fly balls, or taking more pitches, or having an unusual number of balls drop in. The only strange thing? Home runs are flying off his bat at twice his career rate (25.3 % of flyballs versus 12.8 of flyballs). Basically, 9-11 more home runs than you'd normally expect out of him at this point in the season-- and ABSOLUTELY nothing else-- are the difference between 2009 and any other good Ibanez year. ]Rangers: 32 - 22 Nelson Cruz (originally signed by the Mets) = 48 HRs Yeah, but we got valuable Alfonzo/Bordick insurance (Jorge Velandia) for him, so we'll call that trade a push. ]Mariners: 26 - 28 Endy Chavez: 414 ABs; .283/.331/.355 That would be pretty good for the type of CFer he can be, except that he’s doing it mostly in LF which isn’t as good. The Mariner defense is drightening with the defensive goodness... that Endy's bump to LF is legit kinda says it as good as UZR can.

Hawkeye57 Jun 08 2009 02:23 PM Re: The 54 Game Mark

="Frayed Knot":g8qh0jgj]Mets: 29 - 25 David Wright: 9 HRs, 162 Ks, 39 SBs, 24 CS. I think it’s safe to say that he’s having a very odd year. [/quote:g8qh0jgj] No surprise here with the year has been going. I'd be interested to see what kind of RBI total he would have with only 9 HRs yet a good number of XBHs. In terms of team home runs, I don't think the Mets will get more than 75. They have what, 35 through the first third of the season. ="Frayed Knot":g8qh0jgj]Nationals: 15 - 39 Team wins = 45, Adam Dunn HRs = 51 -- and that (one player’s HRs > team wins) has never happened in MLB history[/quote:g8qh0jgj] When I read this I nearly laughed myself right out of my chair knowing that this will probably happen. I don't think they'll get that many wins though if their pitching staff continues. Plus, you have to count for the fact that the Nats will be big sellers this year at the TD, and for that fact that Manny Acta will probably be aout of a job by the 2/3 point of the season. ="Frayed Knot":g8qh0jgj]Red Sox: 32 - 22 David Ortiz: 3 HRs; .187/.281/.289[/quote:g8qh0jgj] Again, no surprise here. I think you are being a bit generous with the .187. I have him hitting even less than that, around the .150 range. 3 dingers sound about right. ="Frayed Knot":g8qh0jgj]Royals: 23 - 31 Zack Greinke: 273 Ks, 39 BB[/quote:g8qh0jgj] Had I known he would have had this type of year I would not have traded him for Santana. I'm sure many other people who made similar mistakes are kicking themselves. One stat that I would be really interested in is how Halladay is going to finish his year out with the Jays. He's 10-1 already and already has something like 5 CGs under his belt. I have a good feeling he'll have 23+ wins and 15+ CGs. Frayed Knot Jun 08 2009 02:43 PM ]... The only strange thing? Home runs are flying off his bat at twice his career rate (25.3 % of flyballs versus 12.8 of flyballs). Basically, 9-11 more home runs than you'd normally expect out of him at this point in the season-- and ABSOLUTELY nothing else-- are the difference between 2009 and any other good Ibanez year. I'd be tempted to say; 'Goodbye Safeco, hello CBP' except that 11 of his 19 HRs so far have come on the road. ]Yeah, but we got valuable Alfonzo/Bordick insurance (Jorge Velandia) for [Nelson Cruz], so we'll call that trade a push. Who knew? Odd history to this guy. Was signed at 18 by the Mets; was dealt away two years later having never played in a U.S.-based minor league (or at least no record of him doing so); has been traded twice since and still has only 1 season w/more than 300 ABs (and that one just barely) so his 200+ this season is already his 2nd highest even though he turns 29 in a few weeks. Always has shown power but still spent big chunks of the last 4 seasons in AAA including most of last year. Benjamin Grimm Jun 08 2009 02:48 PM I read in the paper today that Halladay now has 43 career complete games. (That's almost as many as all Mets have, combined, in the current unnamed decade.) It's nice to know that such a thing is still possible. I'd love to see the CG make a comeback. Frayed Knot Jun 08 2009 02:56 PM Hey, you saw one just the other day by John Lannan, in 2 hours, 1 minute no less. Don't get too greedy. But the thing about complete games is that they've been going down more or less steadily since the '90s -- the [u:27jv1otk]18[/u:27jv1otk]90's -- and it's not likely to make a strong comeback anytime soon. The funny thing is that those who like to point to 'good old days' of the baseball they grew up with (whether it be the 60s, 70s or 80s) could have their era of complete game pcts called wimpy by those remembering the decades before them ... and on back.