|
New York Mets (37-37, 2.5 GB and in 2nd place in NL East) at Milwaukee Brewers (40-35, Tied for 1st in NL Central)
I have been wrong about several things during the 2009 MLB season. I didn't think outfield defense was a big concern. I didn't think the Mets could hang around for the division with Delgado, Reyes, Beltran, Maine, Perez and Putz out. I also didn't think very highly of the Milwaukee Brewers chances of competing in the NL Central in 2009.
On April 17th, I said the following I posted the following in the Citi KTE:
Milwaukee should be considering this a rebuilding year after a disappointing off-season where they lost more than they gained. Too many things need to go right for them to expect to contend at the end of the season.
I went on with:
However, they are a young team with a lot of talented players. If Gallardo can pitch like an ace and their offense can hit enough home runs for the other 4 starters, they could find themselves within a few games at the deadline where they could land a frontline starter like they did last year.
Well, Gallardo has pitched like an ace and the Brewers are 3rd in the NL in HRs. They find themselves in a virtual tie with St. Louis for the NL Central lead and are getting great seasons out of their young offensive talent. The good news for the Mets is that they historically play Milwaukee well. The Mets are 51-28 (.646) all time vs. the Brewers including a 3 game sweep at Miller Park last season.
Pitching Matchups:
Monday, June 29, 7:05 PM ET, ESPN broadcast for the out-of-towners (and Steve Phillips has the night off)
Fernando Nieve, RHP (3-0, 1.31) vs. Braden Looper, RHP (5-4, 5.16)
Ahh, our old best friend comes back as a starter. The Mets missed him the first time around, but draw his number this time. His only other start against the Mets was during the first series of the 2007 season at St. Louis. The Mets won 10-0. Looper hasn't won a game in over a month and has given up 10 earned runs in 9.2 innings over his last two starts.
Tuesday, June 30, 8:05 PM ET
Johan Santana, LHP (9-5, 3.08) vs. Mike Burns, RHP (0-1, 3.72)
Burns made his first career start last Thursday and I'm sure he's thrilled to face Santana in his second start. Burns' line from Thursday was 5.2 IP, 6H, 4ER, 3BB, 3K. He faced the Mets as a reliever in 2006 with the Reds and pitched 2 scoreless innings.
Wednesday, July 1, 2:05 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey, RHP (5-3, 4.67) vs. Yovani Gallardo, RHP (8-4, 2.86)
Gallardo is the real deal and has been pitching well lately without much run support. He's only given up 9 earned runs in his last 7 starts. He faced the Mets at Citi on April 18th and lost a 1-0 pitchers dual with Johan.
The Brewers offense is potent but streaky. They lost to a Giant pitcher yesterday who was making his first ML start and pitched 6 scoreless innings. Milwaukee is vulnerable to swinging and missing as they nearly have as many Ks as hits as a team this season. But they have many players that can crush the ball over the fence.
Probable Lineup (AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, RBI, SB):
2B Craig Counsell .303/.371/.438, 2, 14, 1
Cousell is an ageless wonder who has been filling in for Rickie Weeks, who is out for the season with a torn wrist tendon. Weeks was providing some pretty decent power numbers before he got hurt, but Counsell is getting on base as a legitimate lead-off threat. Plus, he's from Sconnie, I'm from Sconnie...what's not to like.
3B Casey McGehee .336/.397/.542, 4, 17, 0
McGehee took over at 3B after Bill Hall's average stayed below the Mendoza line. Casey has taken the opportunity and flourished in 103 ABs. McGehee can also play 2B and outfield. Mat Gamel is another young guy on the team who can play third, but he has stuggled so far this season.
LF Ryan Braun .324/.415/.575, 16, 53, 6
He's good. Should be the only Brewer other than Robin Yount to start consecutive All-Star games. He's batting .351 with 7 HRs and 21 RBI in his last 24 games.
1B Prince Fielder .301/.421/.598, 19, 73, 0
He's good, too. He's got more home runs this season than the total of the whole lineup that the Mets can throw out there right now. He's the only Brewer to start every game this season is on pace to shatter Milwaukee's team record for walks in a season (held by Burnitz during 2000). But he's still fat...and his middle name is still Semien.
RF Corey Hart .246/.317/.422, 9, 33, 5
Hart isn't having the All-Star first half he had last season, but he has some pop and a little speed. He's in a 1 for 24 slump right now but plays above average defense. He has no errors in his last 64 games.
CF Mike Cameron .243/.353/.453, 12, 33, 4
Cameron started out red hot this season, but has cooled with only 1 HR in the last month during which he hit .149. Mike is still the Mike we all know. He plays great defense, is fast, strikes out a lot and has the power to get the ball out of the ballpark.
SS J.J. Hardy .220/.294/.340, 7, 31, 0
Like many other Brewers, Hardy's numbers don't strike much fear, but also like the other Brewers, he's got pop in his bat and is a threat to hit the ball out at any time. Hardy is hitting .286 with 2 HRs and 6 RBI in his last 11 games.
C Jason Kendall .223/.314/.265, 0, 20, 1
The only Brewer with no power, but he calls a good game. TRIVIA TIME! Kendall is one of only 8 ML players with 2000 career hits and 1000 games at catcher. Who are the other 7? I'm off to Milwaukee for the next couple days so I'll post the answers Wednesday night.
The bottom line on the Brewer offense is that the top of the lineup can get on base and the rest of the order has the power to knock them in. They are streaky with scoring runs and typically play for the big inning. Our AAA+ lineup has enough to manufacture some runs of their own, but it's probably best not to go into the ninth or extras tied as they have the lineup to walk-off at any time with a long ball.
Bullpen:
Mitch Stetter-L 36 G, 25.0 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 2.52 ERA
Todd Coffey-R 35 G, 37.1 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 2.65 ERA
C. Villanueva-R 33 G, 35.0 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 4.37 ERA
Seth McClung-R 28 G, 41.2 IP, 1.42 WHIP, 3.24 ERA
Mark DiFelice-R 28 G, 28.1 IP, 0.81 WHIP, 1.59 ERA
T. Hoffman-R 23 G, 22.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.99 ERA, 17 Svs
Chris Smith-R 7 G, 13.1 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 1.35 ERA
C. Narveson-L 4 G, 5.2 IP, 2.12 WHIP, 12.71 ERA
The bullpen has been performing remarkably well for Milwaukee. Hoffman came off the DL and gave them a bonafide closer. The Brewer bullpen ranks 5th in the NL in ERA, just .03 worse than the fourth place Mets, at 3.56. They hold opposing batters to a .226 average which is best in baseball. Best to score early in Milwaukee these days.
Bench (AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, RBI, SB):
C Mike Rivera .261/.314/.348, 0, 2, 1
3B Mat Gamel .239/.343/.386, 2, 12, 1
IF Bill Hall .199/.260/.335, 5, 16, 1
OF Frank Catalanotto .185/.241/.259, 0, 2, 0
OF Jody Gerut .103/.188/.103, 0, 1, 0 (37 games with SD)
Ex-Brewer Mets:
Gary Sheffield
Ex-Brewer Mets:
Mike Cameron
Braden Looper
Willie Randolph (coach and winner)
All in all, the Mets need to shake of the sweep by the Yankees and get to the Brewers' starters early. Milwaukee is a good team and have a lot of talent, but they can be beaten. I predict 2 out of 3 in Milwaukee then on to Pittsburgh.
|
