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IGT 9/14, Gnats at Mets

KC Sep 14 2005 07:02 PM

Gnats Wilkerson lf Cruz 2b Guillen rf Johnson 1b Wilson cf Castilla 3b Bennett c Guzman ss Loaiza p Mets Reyes ss Matsui 2b Beltran cf Floyd lf Wright 3b Piazza c Jacobs 1b Diaz rf Benson p

KC Sep 14 2005 07:09 PM

Heard Randolph on M&MD today say that he plans on trying to go out on a strong note and that they prolly won't be running out a lot of new guys in the next couple of weeks. (paraphrasing, of course - for everyone licking their chops to see some AA and AAA players take the field) Also said that he's approached most of the guys one on one and asked that they don't mail it in and that they've had some positives to build on and he expects their all through the last couple of weeks.

Rotblatt Sep 14 2005 07:17 PM

Good for Willie! I hope it has an effect.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 14 2005 07:32 PM

Matsui is raking just like he did during the MFY series in '04.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 14 2005 07:33 PM

Mets are all wearing those knickers high tonight.

ScarletKnight41 Sep 14 2005 07:41 PM

1-1 after one.

seawolf17 Sep 14 2005 08:03 PM

WHY does Beltran try to steal third with Wright at the plate again!? This guy's gonna be the death of me for the next six years.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 14 2005 08:17 PM

I guess he wasn't listening to WWSB's pre-game peptalk.

Nymr83 Sep 14 2005 08:31 PM

maybe he's trying to pad his SB numbers to tone down criticism from jerks like us? :twisted:

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2005 08:39 PM

Guillen decides it's a fine time to conduct a yard sale.

Elster88 Sep 14 2005 08:46 PM

I believed in you Kaz! Way to go!!! ____________________________ This post had the designation 155) David Segui

Valadius Sep 14 2005 08:49 PM

Ten-game hit streak for Kaz. Really makes WWSB look like a goddamn moron for trotting Cairo out there every day.

Rockin' Doc Sep 14 2005 08:54 PM

Sometimes, it doesn't seem all that hard to make WWSB look like a moron.

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2005 08:56 PM

Except that most of the time Cairo was getting trotted out there every day Matsui was either: a) hitting even less than Cairo or b) out injured

KC Sep 14 2005 08:58 PM

>>>Really makes WWSB look like a goddamn moron for trotting Cairo out there every day.<<< That's a pretty moronic statement to be calling someone a moron in, especially a strongly worded gosh darn moron at that?? I don't mean to be mean, but c'mon.

Elster88 Sep 14 2005 09:01 PM

Well, he did go a little overboard when saying it, but I think his point is true. Playing Cairo when a healthy Matsui was an option was the wrong decision. If you want to discount Matsui's hot streak as a flash in the pan, Cairo's poor play proved he's not an everyday option. ____________________________ This post had the designation 155) David Segui

Elster88 Sep 14 2005 09:04 PM

And yeah, the fact that Cairo was consistently starting, while playing awfully, and only giving Matsui a day here and a day there (including at least one 3 for 4 game) is pretty moronic. ____________________________ This post had the designation 155) David Segui

KC Sep 14 2005 09:06 PM

I'm with FK who snuck in before me. You guys have all winter to Randolph bash, I won't have too much to do with it.

Elster88 Sep 14 2005 09:10 PM

I'm not into bashing Willlie. I just think the Cairo decision was terrible. Not just him, though, every fool on the FAN, 99% of the media, and I daresay even a few around these parts agreed with him. Morons? No. Too quick to throw in the towel on Kaz, and much too quick to assume last year was a better representation of Cairo's ability than his entire career? Absolutely. ____________________________ This post had the designation 155) David Segui

KC Sep 14 2005 09:24 PM

>>>Except that most of the time Cairo was getting trotted out there every day Matsui was either: a) hitting even less than Cairo or b) out injured<<< This is the way I remember it. It's a lot less dramatic, but until someone demonstrates otherwise ....

Edgy DC Sep 14 2005 09:44 PM

Willie stood with Matsui for a long time in the face of demands for Cairo.

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2005 09:54 PM

It's just starting to sound like cranky kids crying Wolf around here. I was as loud as anyone against those fans and media who seemed to act as if there were piles of evidence that Cairo was the superior player. Between Cairo's 'Yanquiness' plus the dislike of Matsui coming in to the year I thought that many were vastly over-rating Cairo's potential impact. BUT, having said all that ... Matsui had the job most of the time in the beginning and didn't play well enough either offensively or defensively to hold it. He then got hurt and was out nearly 2 months during which Cairo played well in spots. So It wasn't exactly surprising when Kaz wasn't simply handed a full-time spot immediately upon returning and this notion that a moronic Willie was consistantly playing Cairo over a healthy and hot Matsui is mostly fiction. Look, I don't want to upset Bret and sound like I'm trying to tell people how to post here because I'm certainly not ... but even though I realize that it's fashionable to call WWSB a moron at every possible opportunity these days it really does sound like so many kids crying 'Wolf'. When every little decision we disagree with is cited as some sort of sign of diminished mental capacity the whole concept starts to lose it's effectiveness, and it becomes even worse if we're going to start making up examples just to pile on. [/end rant]

Edgy DC Sep 14 2005 09:59 PM

Six three. The IGT took my thread's theme and ran away. Away. Away.

Edgy DC Sep 14 2005 10:08 PM

Fell to the red room Because she was there Uh-huh-huh-huh A scarlet woman She got me in fear Yeah, yeah, yeah She said, "do all those things that you do to me You know what I mean, boy? Do all those things that you do to me, yeah!" (Talkin' bout love) Love remover! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love, soul shaker! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover machine! Baby, baby, baby, baby, baby! I fell from the sky! Yesterday You blew my mind Oh, yeah Having trouble with my direction Upside-down, psychotic reaction Oh! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover! (Talkin' bout love) Love removal machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love, soul stealer! (Talkin' bout love) Love removal machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love, fun remover! (Talkin' bout love) Love removal machine! Yeah! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love, fun remover! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love! (Talkin' bout love) Love remover machine! (Talkin' bout love) Gimme love, soul shaker! (Talkin' bout love) Love removal machine! Ooh yeah! Look out, here she comes! Look out, here she comes! I said, look out, here she comes! Look out, here she comes, yeah! Shake it, don't break it, baby! Shake it, don't break it, baby! Shake it, don't break it, baby! Shake it, don't break it! Baby!! Ow, ow, ow! Ow, ow, ow! Ah, yeah!

Edgy DC Sep 14 2005 10:08 PM

Wow. The inning ended before I could get my rally song up. That sucks.

Rockin' Doc Sep 14 2005 10:57 PM

I believe this is the first time that I have referred to Willie as a moron (or similar) so I wouldn't classify myself as a Willie basher. I will readily admit that I am greatly frustrated by the team's September swoon. Not that this collapse is all Willie's fault by any stretch of the imagination. However, I have become increasingly frustrated by many of Willie's in game decisions as well as many of his player personnel decisions. KC and LF are correct that there will be more than ample time to sift through Randolph's first managerial season once the season has been completed. I will go through my list of grievances at a more appropriate time in the future.

Elster88 Sep 14 2005 11:56 PM

Rockin' Doc wrote: I believe this is the first time that I have referred to Willie as a moron (or similar) so I wouldn't classify myself as a Willie basher. I will readily admit that I am greatly frustrated by the team's September swoon. Not that this collapse is all Willie's fault by any stretch of the imagination. However, I have become increasingly frustrated by many of Willie's in game decisions as well as many of his player personnel decisions. KC and LF are correct that there will be more than ample time to sift through Randolph's first managerial season once the season has been completed. I will go through my list of grievances at a more appropriate time in the future. I'll agree with all this. Personally, I consider myself to be someone who defends Willie more than most. I don't remember who it was who tried to blame the whole season on Willie (or at least blamed not making the playoffs on Willie), but when it happened I rose to Willie's defense. ____________________________ This post had the designation 155) David Segui

Rotblatt Sep 15 2005 08:09 AM

That was me, Elster. And I still think I'm right. My main point was that Seo had been the second best pitcher on our team per start, and that him being successful was entirely predictible after his 3 MLB starts--or at least a few starts after his reentry into the minors. Of course, I was wrong. Seo's been the best pitcher on our team on a per start basis. Yes, even better than Pedro, by a pretty significant amount (+.71 VORP/game, according to Baseball Prospectus). Now, it's reasonable to expect that Seo would have gone through a rough patch and ended up less valuable than Petey, but imagine if our team had had another Petey starting every five days since May. My other huge gripe was Willie's bullpen management, where he used average or worse pitchers in high-level situations and Heilman in low-level situations. Which he continues to do, by the way. I know you're all going to tell me that it's our offense that sunk us and not our pitching, but if you don't think an average offense (which we STILL have been, even after our recent dive, and so far no one's produced any stats to suggest otherwise) and a dominant pitching staff can make the playoffs, you haven't been paying attention. VORP by Position Player Wright 59.2 Floyd 38.8 Reyes 26.5 Beltran 25.2 Piazza 23.6 VORP by Pitcher Petey, 29 GS, 59.5 Glavine, 30 Gs, 30.5 Seo, 10 GS, 27.6 Benson, 24 GS, 20.6 Hernandez, 60 G, 20.1 Seo's already been the 5th most valuable PLAYER on our team AND HE'S ONLY APPEARED IN TEN GAMES. And as I've laid out elsewhere, Seo's dominance has been consistent the entire season save for one start, where he showed up late because he was attending to his pregnant wife. Willie--or whomever decided to let Seo languish in the minors--IS a moron. edited for confusing 5th with 6th and a typo

Frayed Knot Sep 15 2005 09:53 AM

I'm not trying to make the point that we can't be critical of Willie - I'm kinda mixed on him myself so far. But this all reminds me a bit of the Cardinal fan who invaded the old forum during the 2000 season. He was your typical obnoxious fan whose idea of intelligent conversation was to show up following a StL win and say 'nyah nyah nah nyah nayh' (I later found out this teenage-sounding dope was around 50 y/o). Anyway, he moved in near the end of the season and, needless to say, wound up taking a pasting during the NLCS which he would deflect in each case by simply blaming everything on LaRussa. They clearly had the better team ... only LaRussa screwed it up. That 4-1 series would have been the other way around ... if only they had a "real" manager, etc. The problem is that that kind of thinking becomes a crutch after a while and diverts attention from the real, or at least [u:d3373471f7]other[/u:d3373471f7], problems. In this case, using KazMat's sudden hot streak to imply that the dope at the helm was the only reason we haven't been getting this kind of production out of 2nd base all season certainly ignores a lot of inconvinient facts. So does blaming all the personnel decisions - usually the GM's realm - on him. So critisize away. It's just that if we use a losing streak as an excuse to call him a "moron" every time things don't go our way it not only loses it's effectiveness if/when he really deserves such a label, but also by that point no one's going to be listening anymore.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 15 2005 10:20 AM

an average offense (which we STILL have been, even after our recent dive, and so far no one's produced any stats to suggest otherwise) And as long as one resolutely sticks to the narrowest possible interpretation of an "average offense," why bother?

Rotblatt Sep 15 2005 10:53 AM

]And as long as one resolutely sticks to the narrowest possible interpretation of an "average offense," why bother? So looking at RS (8th in the NL), OPS (10th in NL), HR (7th in NL), IsoP (7th in NL), SecA (6th in NL) AND EQA (8th in the NL) equals the narrowest definition? I mean, I'm not making this shit up, JD. Please point me to the stats that show how our offense is crappy and I'll happily discuss them with you. The consistency argument was interesting (if ultimitely inconclusive) and I'm completely willing to entertain more ideas like that one. Norrin's "your head is up your ass," someone else's "OBP is a better indicator than RS," and the "2B & 1B offense are more important than team totals" arguments haven't been convincing me, and I really do feel like I'm making valid points, which y'all keep ignoring.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 15 2005 11:46 AM

I'm not arguing that being 8th in RS is average overall. I'm saying most nights we're worse than average, which was demonstrated by showing we had a larger % of games below 4 and 3 runs than the other contenders, lower median RS than our average RS, 5 freaky games that pumped the total score up and almost completely account for RS-RA, 2 slots in the lineup going to the worst everyday players by position and an average of fewer than 3 runs a game since the AZ series. None of that should be inconclusive.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 15 2005 11:47 AM

I'm not arguing that being 8th in RS is average overall. I'm saying most nights we're worse than average, which was demonstrated by showing we had a larger % of games below 4 and 3 runs than the other contenders, lower median RS than our average RS, 5 freaky games that pumped the total score up and almost completely account for RS-RA, 2 slots in the lineup going to the worst everyday players by position and an average of fewer than 3 runs a game since the AZ series. None of that should be inconclusive.

Rotblatt Sep 15 2005 01:05 PM

="Johnny Dickshot"]I'm not arguing that being 8th in RS is average overall. I'm saying most nights we're worse than average, which was demonstrated by showing we had a larger % of games below 4 and 3 runs than the other contenders, lower median RS than our average RS, 5 freaky games that pumped the total score up and almost completely account for RS-RA, 2 slots in the lineup going to the worst everyday players by position and an average of fewer than 3 runs a game since the AZ series. None of that should be inconclusive. Consistency in scoring did not correlate to winning more games, at least in the AL, which means it's probably also true in the NL. And even if it DID, the Mets didn't seem to be significantly worse than most of the teams ahead of us in the NL in terms of consistency. Some other stats regarding consistency for you, based on handy new info from BP. I didn't break this out by AL/NL cause it was easier just to tally them all up. If you'd like to break it down, I'd be very interested. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/team_game_results2005.php): Mets record when scoring 0 runs 0-11 MLB average # of games: 8 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 0-11, 0-8 Mets record when scoring 1 run 4-12, .250 WP MLB average winning percentage: .087 Average # of games: 14; Mets: 16 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 4-23 (.074), 1-21 (.045) 2 runs 4-15, .211 WP MLB average winning percentage: .256 Average # of games: 19 G; Mets: 19 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 8-38 (.174), 6-35 (.154) 3 runs 6-17. .261 WP MLB average WP: .337 Average # of games: 19 G; Mets: 23 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 14-55 (.203), 12-48 (.200) 4 runs 5-10, .333 WP MLB average WP: .486 Average # of games: 19; Mets: 15 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 19-65 (.226), 21-58 (.266) 5 runs 9-4, .692 WP MLB average WP: .619 Average # of games: 17; Mets: 13 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 28-69 (.289), 33-64 (.340) 6 runs or more 43-5, .896 WP MLB Average: .833 Average # of games: 48; Mets: 48 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 71-74 (.490), 73-72 (.503) The problem, as I see it, isn't that we didn't score enough runs consistently, it's that we won at a below average rate in games where we scored between 2 & 4 runs. If we had won at an average rate in those situations, we would have won 5 extra games, without scoring a single extra run. So basically, our pitching, despite being well above average, didn't do as well in low-scoring games as the average MLB pitching staff. At least, that's my conclusion. Whaddya think?