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Bonds or Jones


Barry Bonds 10 votes

Andruw Jones 0 votes

Other 5 votes

No one 1 votes

Elster88
Sep 15 2005 07:40 AM

Andruw Jones became the youngest player to reach 300 homers yesterday. That's a testament to the age at which he joined the league as much as his home run hitting prowess. Then again, 50 home runs is a pretty incredible season, it just seems like a lot less than it used to thanks to steroids, juiced balls, blah blah blah.
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This post had the designation 155) David Segui

smg58
Sep 15 2005 07:43 AM

There's something about his output this season that seems a little too good to be true. Or maybe I'm just automatically suspicious of anybody who hits more than 30 these days.

Edgy MD
Sep 15 2005 07:46 AM

Bonds, of course. There's just too much that can go wrong between 300 and 756.

cooby
Sep 15 2005 07:46 AM

I voted other, as in BOTH

Elster88
Sep 15 2005 08:46 AM

They can't both be MORE likely. ;-)

sharpie
Sep 15 2005 08:54 AM

Bonds. Andruw is having a helluva year but I don't see him duplicating it.

metirish
Sep 15 2005 09:04 AM

Bonds in a romp, he could end up with over 800

seawolf17
Sep 15 2005 09:05 AM

I'm tempted to vote Jones. He's still a kid! Keep in mind, Hank Aaron never hit 50 in a season, and he got to 755 just fine. I think he'll keep getting better, which is scary.

Frayed Knot
Sep 15 2005 09:12 AM

Andruw Jones became the youngest player to reach 300 homers yesterday.


Jimmie Foxx ended the 1935 season with 302 HRs, then turned 28 several weeks later.
Andruw hit #300 last night but turned 28 in April.



At this point I suspect neither will reach 756.
I thought Bonds would until he missed most of this year, although I'd still consider him more likely to reach it than Andruw. Too many things can go wrong between #300 & even #500/600 (see Griffey, Ken Jr.) not to mnetion 756. I also think Andruw might not be the type to "age well" although I've been wrong on that several times already with him.

Elster88
Sep 15 2005 10:15 AM

Frayed Knot wrote:
Andruw Jones became the youngest player to reach 300 homers yesterday.


Jimmie Foxx ended the 1935 season with 302 HRs, then turned 28 several weeks later.
Andruw hit #300 last night but turned 28 in April.


Huh. I didn't know this. I heard the soundbite from my TV while brushing my teeth this morning that Andruw was the youngest.
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This post had the designation 154) Tommy Davis

Edgy MD
Sep 15 2005 10:20 AM

Jimmy Foxx is one of the most under-appreciated great players. He shares George Brett's curse of being alnost an exact contemporary of perhaps the greatest player to ever play his position.

seawolf17
Sep 15 2005 10:28 AM

Edgy DC wrote:
George Brett's curse of being alnost an exact contemporary of perhaps the greatest player to ever play his position.


That, of course, is Phil Garner.

Edgy MD
Sep 15 2005 10:32 AM

PlayerYearsDays
Alex Rodriguez27249
Jimmie Foxx27328
Ken Griffey Jr.28143
Andruw Jones28145
Mel Ott28171
Eddie Mathews28186
Mickey Mantle28257


What you probably heard was that he was the youngest Brave to accomplish the feat.

Frayed Knot
Sep 15 2005 11:23 AM

ARod was also the youngest to 400 - and by a bigger margin IIRC.
He has a better chance at 756 than either Jones or Bonds IMO.

metirish
Sep 15 2005 01:10 PM

Listen to an Irish sports radio station in Dublin talking about Bonds,I think they are talking to a journo from the Chronicle.

http://www.newstalk106.ie/

He was talking to a guy from KMB sports radion in san fran

metsmarathon
Sep 15 2005 02:54 PM

i think what he meant was, of all the players to reach 300 home runs yesterday, andruw jones was the youngest.

but i could be wrong...

Nymr83
Sep 15 2005 03:54 PM

gotta put Arod ahead of them both here.

MFS62
Sep 16 2005 11:43 AM

I voted "other" for A-Rod.

I'm still not convinced about Andruw's staying power in this race to #1.
Bill James has written that ballplayers reach their power peak around the age of 27, stay at that platteau for a while, then start to decline. For a NL player who will have to play the field, thsi may limit Jones' chances for longevity.
But if he moves to the AL and only has to bat, he might stay in the race longer.

Later

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 16 2005 12:13 PM


Bill James has written that ballplayers reach their power peak around the age of 27, stay at that platteau for a while, then start to decline. For a NL player who will have to play the field, thsi may limit Jones' chances for longevity.
But if he moves to the AL and only has to bat, he might stay in the race longer.


As I related in another thread a presenter at SABR this summer showed data indicating those numbers have changed considerably since James did his calculation in the 1980s and peaks are starting later and lasting longer than they used to (due to training & other factors). Bill James sat there and watched!

On the presenter's site are some funky charts showing some of the data he used.

[url]http://www.visual-baseball.com/index.html

MFS62
Sep 16 2005 12:16 PM

Thanks for the update.
Do you recall at what age the new late-bloomers being their statistical decline?
Was this the SABR meeting in Toronto?
I have several friends who attended and sent you a message (I forget whether a post or PM) about them.
One was a contributing writer to "Tales From the Mets Dugout"

Later

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 16 2005 12:31 PM

Oh, I had to have missed your message before I went and forgot to responede. I don;t know if I met your guy but I did run into some geeked-out Metfans.

Here's the SABR thread -- all I noted was that peaks begin closer to 30 than to 27 today.

[url]http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=792&highlight=sabr