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Will Carroll: Beltran might miss all of 2010

Centerfield Jul 31 2009 07:38 AM

Grain of salt recommended, but here's the story: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=9316 He cites no sources, and he isn't a doctor, but that analysis seems to jive with the reports we've been getting that the bone bruise isn't getting better. And even if it were, there's no way to address the lack of cartilage that led to it in the first place. This is by far the worst news I've heard in 2009.

metirish Jul 31 2009 07:41 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

Without even going to the link wasn't there a report on SNY regurgitated in the booth that Beltran could be back in two to three weeks?

Centerfield Jul 31 2009 07:50 AM

The report was that the bone bruise wasn't better, but he was going to come back anyway, which made no sense. With Carroll's explanation, the plan seems to be to gut it out for 2009, then rest, and if it doesn't get better, opt for micro fracture surgery.

metirish Jul 31 2009 07:55 AM

I apologize CF . I missed or it didn't click that you wrote 2010 season. So Beltran makes a decision to come back for this season apparently knowing that he needs surgery in the off season that will have him out for next season. The mind boggles.

Frayed Knot Jul 31 2009 07:58 AM

Carroll's been known to throw up some wildly speculative stuff in the past without much backing and this sounds like more of the same. That doesn't mean this situation couldn't go south at some point, but between "near certainty" that he'll need micro-fracture surgery, and "unlikely he can play CF" I think he's doing a bit of reaching here.

seawolf17 Jul 31 2009 07:59 AM

Quick! Trade him before anyone notices!

Nymr83 Jul 31 2009 08:48 AM

if he needs surgery he should have it yesterday. i realize the mets little mini-streak here has people semi-excited again but i'd rather have beltran back in the middle of 2010 than playing at 50% the rest of this year and missing all of next. i support playing through injury, or risking injury, to make the playoffs or win it all, but to do so when the season is in bad shape doesnt make much sense for the team or the player.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 31 2009 08:50 AM

The whole point of microfracture surgery is that it's a last-ditch attempt to regrow cartilage-- think of it like a surgical half-court shot. There's been quite a bit of progress in developing the procedure; at this point, it's like a half-court shot after having practiced half-court shots for a few months... but still, no guarantee. (There's a reason it's not really done unless someone's career/quality of life is significantly impacted by losing the ability to make quick movements on one's legs-- pro athletes, elite dancers, etc.) All Carroll-related caveats taken into account, that this is being discussed semi-realistically is depressing.

attgig Jul 31 2009 09:17 AM

go get carl crawford :-) he can play center, throw beltran in left. and francour in right.

Mex17 Jul 31 2009 09:57 AM

Radical thought. . . If Beltran is truly not available for 2010 and/or will never even really be the same again (which you cannot discount) and cannot really be replaced so easily (due to $$$ concerns plus the fact that Carlos Beltran's do not grow on trees), then maybe the rational of having the likes of Santana and K-Rod on your team is no longer tenable (Wright and Reyes are still young and cheap enough to keep and build around. . .maybe you even add Francoeur to that mix now too). So do you make the bold move and trade them both, thereby getting a bounty of young prospects in return that you can build a new team with along with Wright/Reyes/Francoeur/Pelfrey/Holt/Martinez/Mejia/whoever else for 2011 and beyond? The thought here is, without Beltran, the Mets are no longer a "win now" team. It's a tough pill to swallow, but maybe you have to take the silver lining and make that adjustment.

Edgy DC Jul 31 2009 10:08 AM

They have four more hours to spit or swallow. I don't think that's what they'll do at this time.

Mex17 Jul 31 2009 10:12 AM

="Edgy DC":3sfnaymt]They have four more hours to spit or swallow. I don't think that's what they'll do at this time.[/quote:3sfnaymt] I was thinking more of this determination being made in the winter time. Frayed Knot Jul 31 2009 11:40 AM Carroll upddates -- after no doubt getting a boatload of mail from panicked Met fans: Let's clarify yesterday's report about Beltran. Over on Twitter, the manic Mets fans took exception to the suggestion that he was likely headed for microfracture surgery, and that it would signify what I called a "last hurrah." First, most cited a late-June visit to Dr. Richard Steadman—the inventor of the surgery and one of the top orthopedic surgeons in the world—where Steadman was quoted as saying that Beltran didn't need microfracture surgery. I say read it more closely: what Steadman said was that Beltran didn't need it now, and wouldn't as long as the bruising healed up well. It didn't, he'll play anyway, and that's what changed. Sure, a top doc said that, but as with virtually everything in the injury world, things change not just from month to month, but sometimes minute to minute. It seems many interpreted "last hurrah" as "end of career," where instead I meant it more in the sense of the Spencer Tracy classic in that things aren't what they used to be. Most also pointed to a successful microfracture surgery like the one performed on Brian Giles; he came back in about seven months, and played reasonably well with no real problems since. Giles did have something of a 2008 resurgence, especially in his fielding numbers (both Clay Davenport's and UZR), going from godawful to about average in right field, and rebounding at the plate. I'm not sure if that means it relieved his discomfort but just didn't last, or that age caught up to him. In fact, despite the similar procedure, I just don't see enough similarities between Giles and Beltran to feel comfortable saying they'll have similar recoveries. We'll see if he has it and we'll see how he does if he does, but first, we'll see if he can help the Mets. It's still scary, but he's still guessing. Edgy DC Jul 31 2009 11:53 AM He's guessing, but Met fans are manic when asking for clarification? Frayed Knot Jul 31 2009 11:55 AM Met fans are manic whether they're asking for clarification or not. metirish Jul 31 2009 12:22 PM Carroll seems like he's getting increasingly manic the more he writes on this. Ceetar Jul 31 2009 12:41 PM ="metirish":3q84hg0z]Carroll seems like he's getting increasingly manic the more he writes on this.[/quote:3q84hg0z] He's mincing words to make a story out of nothing. I feel like if there was a serious possibility that he'd need this surgery, they would've done it immediately. It wasn't like the team was cruising at the time, and the choice at that time would've been an 85% Beltran, max, for 2009, or a "fully" healed Beltran for 2010. Now it's at the point where he'll miss all of it, which would be stupid (not that discounts things aroung here..) Beltran was playing, and hitting, through it pretty well before he was actually placed on the DL. So no reason to think he won't be able to do the same now. Let him play if that's the decision, and then in November, send him down to Puerto Rico with a victory Mai Tai and have him put his leg up for 3 months. Ashie62 Jul 31 2009 12:45 PM ="Edgy DC"]He's guessing, but Met fans are manic when asking for clarification? I don't care if he's guessing or not. This is not the first time I've heard micro-fracture in reference to Beltran. Will it happen? Who the hell knows. I just remember the term being applied to Mo Vaughn once and the implication then was career ender. Beltran was talking about an extension recently, so he must not feel too bad...Just don't draft him in fantasy for steals Rockin' Doc Jul 31 2009 06:42 PM It's not an ideal situation, but if Beltran's knees will no longer allow him to play center field (or possibly even left field), then maybe the Mets should look at playing him at first base. He has the bat to play first base, and it would certainly require less running and likely put less strain on his knees than the outfield. Of course, it would depend on his ability to make the move defensively. The Mets really need to determine his future status so that they can intelligently move forward this off season. Kong76 Jul 31 2009 07:01 PM A62: Beltran was talking about an extension recently <<< Really? metirish Jul 31 2009 07:07 PM ="Kong76"]A62: Beltran was talking about an extension recently <<< Really? On his house in PR IIRC Ashie62 Jul 31 2009 07:16 PM ="Kong76"]A62: Beltran was talking about an extension recently <<< Really? On an SNY pregame a week or so ago they had updates on the wounded and mentioned that Beltran was hoping to get back soon and talk about an extension I dont have a link for proof but it caught my attention in that Carlos must be optimistic TheOldMole Aug 02 2009 07:42 AM ]It seems many interpreted "last hurrah" as "end of career," This has to be the weasel of the month. It never occurred to him that anyone would interpret "last hurrah" as "end of career"? Mex17 Aug 04 2009 04:58 AM On the topic of an extension, a younger-than-Beltran Grady Sizemore is scheduled to be a free agent the same winter that Beltran is. Would it not behoove the Mets to at least keep their options open? Nymr83 Aug 04 2009 06:51 AM ="Mex17":3vecf8c8]On the topic of an extension, a younger-than-Beltran Grady Sizemore is scheduled to be a free agent the same winter that Beltran is. Would it not behoove the Mets to at least keep their options open?[/quote:3vecf8c8] He'll be a free agent after the 2011 season, he'll turn 35 in april of 2012. It would behoove the Mets not to give an extension to a mid-30's and recently injured player who isn't a free agent for another 2 full seasons (plus the rest of this one), Sizemore isn't really a factor there. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 12:47 PM I would love to see Sizemore as a Met. Out of Cleveland where he is held to the same standard as David Wright..less pressure and 30/30 Fuck Beltran Nymr83 Aug 04 2009 01:07 PM fuck beltran?? seriously?? do you hate Wright too since he might not be as good as Longoria? Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 01:46 PM ="Nymr83":1jwt5wy7]fuck beltran?? seriously?? do you hate Wright too since he might not be as good as Longoria?[/quote:1jwt5wy7] No, I think Beltran plays soft smg58 Aug 04 2009 01:50 PM Sizemore hasn't had a higher OPS than Beltran since 05, and he's not as good a fielder. He's also currently hitting .229. Yes he's younger, and maybe in 2011 that will be meaningful, but he has not been a better player. LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 04 2009 02:26 PM Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Aug 04 2009 02:54 PM ="Ashie62"] ="Nymr83"]fuck beltran?? seriously?? do you hate Wright too since he might not be as good as Longoria? No, I think Beltran plays soft With all due respect, that's just plain goofy. Beltran has played superlative defense and offense for four years, approximately two of which have been played on painfully cartilage-free knees. He's done so at a premium defensive position and given us OPS+es of 125-130... in off years (think high-150s when he's "good"). I'll say it again-- two years out of the last four with a painful chronic condition that can never really be repaired. How does that strike you as "soft?" Is it that he doesn't make a gritty Victorino face when he makes catches up Tal's hill, or is that he doesn't pump his fist like a meth-addled masturbator as he steals second and third in a one-run game? I'm not sure I'd advocate resigning him at 35... but it damn sure isn't because he's "soft." Nymr83 Aug 04 2009 02:27 PM it was really 'soft' of him to get a concussion running into Mike Cameron to get to a ball. seawolf17 Aug 04 2009 02:45 PM Maybe his mole is soft. Centerfield Aug 04 2009 03:33 PM If Beltran plays soft, give me more soft players. My problem is Beltran playing hard (out there on a bad knee) when he should be sipping drinks on a beach until his knee is 100%. metirish Aug 04 2009 03:48 PM I'm certain there was a question about his "toughness' a few years ago and I may have even partaken in such nonsense but it's not valid talk. Nymr83 Aug 04 2009 04:43 PM ="Centerfield":3mtgukzx]If Beltran plays soft, give me more soft players. My problem is Beltran playing hard (out there on a bad knee) when he should be sipping drinks on a beach until his knee is 100%.[/quote:3mtgukzx] or until the Mets are within 10 or so net games back of the division or wildcard, or april 1st 2010. i hate that anyone is being rushed back right now. rushed might not even be the right word, i hate that anyone is even being allowed to 'resume baseball activities' at less than 100%, the team doesnt need them (because the season is o-v-e-r), the team needs them healthy next spring. the exception is delgado, since he is a free agent i'd tell him that its entirely up to him whether he wants to worry more about a) getting healthy or b) showcasing himself at less than 100% Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 04:48 PM The whole team, from top to bottom is soft. I hope Carlos Delgado returns so he can showcase himself or as a curtain call for Cooperstown Beltran & Reyes are excused for 2009. Personally I hope Reyes is excused for good. Frayed Knot Aug 04 2009 05:55 PM I may regret asking this, but what defines a player as "soft"? Valadius Aug 04 2009 06:12 PM You hope Reyes is excused for good? Are you dissatisfied with his work? Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 06:27 PM Excessive absenteism by a key employee is usually cause for dismissal. Beyond that, it is my feeling that Reyes will be dealing with his hammy for the rest of his baseball life. Thank you for your help Mr. Reyes you now work for ----- OlerudOwned Aug 04 2009 06:35 PM I still don't get the logic that Sizemore will be under less scrutiny moving from Cleveland to New York. Kong76 Aug 04 2009 06:37 PM A62: Excessive absenteism by a key employee is usually cause for dismissal <<< Not for medical reasons. A62: Beyond that, it is my feeling that Reyes will be dealing with his hammy for the rest of his baseball life <<< Stop the presses, Ashie62 had a feeling. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 06:45 PM Unfortunately for a Professional athlete medical reasons count You're telling me in all seriousness Reye's problems don't concern you beyond the here & now? If not, so be it, I disagree, thats all Frayed Knot Aug 04 2009 06:51 PM And let me guess, you knew this hamstring situation was going to be a lingering problem in 2005, then would allow him to play virtually every inning of 2006, 2007, and 2008, before becoming a lingering problem again in 2009 and beyond? Kong76 Aug 04 2009 06:51 PM Being concerned doesn't have me penciling him in for never seeing another AB in a Mets' uniform. You're itchin' to go cleon or whatever ... resist the temptation. PiggiesTomatoes Aug 04 2009 08:41 PM What does leg discomfort mean? Is there a pussy factor here? Edgy DC Aug 04 2009 09:11 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 04 2009 09:34 PM Oh, come on. Pussy factor? ]Unfortunately for a Professional athlete medical reasons count Just about anywhere in the civilized world, if you get injured in the line of duty, the company is responsible for you. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 09:21 PM ="Kong76":2iq5lj0m]Being concerned doesn't have me penciling him in for never seeing another AB in a Mets' uniform. You're itchin' to go cleon or whatever ... resist the temptation.[/quote:2iq5lj0m] I don't understand the large amount of support for Reyes on this board. Yeah, he's hurt and in a couple of days we'll find out how badly. His full season numbers are impressive, but he disappeared the last 2 Septembers, and wasn't doing much til 5/21 of 09. I'm the only one on this board that would like to move him?? That surprises me. Edgy DC Aug 04 2009 09:40 PM ="Ashie62":30jtftth]I don't understand the large amount of support for Reyes on this board.[/quote:30jtftth] It's a board full of Met fans. He's easily the best shortstop that has ever worn the uniform. In almost 50 years. ="Ashie62":30jtftth]Yeah, he's hurt and in a couple of days we'll find out how badly.[/quote:30jtftth] And getting hurt is generally considered a forgiveable offense. ="Ashie62":30jtftth]His full season numbers are impressive, but he disappeared the last 2 Septembers, and wasn't doing much til 5/21 of 09.[/quote:30jtftth] That's cherry-picking and vindictive. And almost certainly counter-productive. ="Ashie62":30jtftth]I'm the only one on this board that would like to move him?? That surprises me.[/quote:30jtftth] Yet it seems true. Piggy may be leaning your way, however. You strike me, to be fair, as a fan who is usually looking over the shoulders of the current players for the next thing. Reyes is far from perfect but I can't think of anybody on this team whose performance is harder to replace. We're seeing that everyday. seawolf17 Aug 05 2009 04:53 AM Plus there's the whole "he's only 25" thing. Hell, guys get hurt; it happens. But he's still getting BETTER. Shut him down and get him ready for 2010. Moving him is asinine, especially considering that you get shit for him coming off an injury. If the Mets trade him in the offseason, then he comes back and has a typical year next year for the Brewers or whoever, then you're the first one bitching about why we traded this guy and complaining why David Fucking Eckstein is our shortstop. Mex17 Aug 05 2009 05:41 AM The last game before he got hurt provided a good example as to why people were beginning to get sick of him. The player has immense talent. The ability/desire to become great by means of actually thinking about what you are doing on the field as opposed to playing by the seat of your pants may or may not come. It's a tough mix to handle, you do not want to sacrfice that natural joy but you do want to see some added seasoning from him. Kong76 Aug 05 2009 06:16 AM A62: I don't understand the large amount of support for Reyes on this board <<< You made a delirious prediction that he'd never play another game as a Met and now it's taken longer for him to come back and I'm sick of hearing you bang your drum is what it boils down to for me. I'm not opposed to moving anyone for the right price. Including posters :-) Edgy DC Aug 05 2009 07:15 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 05 2009 08:49 AM I think Reyes thinks about what he is doing on the field. And I think he has displayed more than a little seasoning. metsmarathon Aug 05 2009 08:38 AM y'know, i always thought rickey henderson had hamstring problems... also, i've noticed through my own experience that about the only muscle group that's perhaps more tricky and annoying to recover from than a hamstring is a quad. i give beltran all the credit in the world for playing as much as he had, and as well as he had, with his various quad strains. that's hardly soft in my book. Edgy DC Aug 05 2009 08:51 AM Yeah, Ricky was a lazy shiftless goodfornutttin' with the Yanks for not getting back from injuries faster and then he ends up playing 20 more years and has to be dragged from the field. Ashie62 Aug 05 2009 09:29 AM ="Kong76"]A62: I don't understand the large amount of support for Reyes on this board <<< You made a delirious prediction that he'd never play another game as a Met and now it's taken longer for him to come back and I'm sick of hearing you bang your drum is what it boils down to for me. I'm not opposed to moving anyone for the right price. Including posters :-) I wouldn't say it was a delirious prediction, but I can be traded for a poster to be named later. LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 05 2009 09:30 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 05 2009 09:50 AM Does that mean we may have to put up with another 20-some-odd years of killing speed, .490 slugging and absurdly skilled defense... and attendant displays of joy that piss off opponents for whom we don't particularly care? Crap. From here on in, I may need to have a delicious beer or two per game in order to choke this possibility down, and clap until my hands hurt to drown out that awful crowing and cheering after one of those disgustingly flamboyant triples. Ashie62 Aug 05 2009 09:36 AM ="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"]Does that mean we may have to put up with another 20-some-odd years of killing speed, .490 slugging and absurdly skilled defense... andattendant displays of joy that piss off opponents for whom we don't particularly care? Crap. From here on in, I may need to have a beer or two per game in order to choke this possibility down, and clap until my hands hurt to drown out that awful crowing and cheering after one of those disgustingly flamboyant triples. Have a Schaefer on me