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I was doing some Frankie figuring earlier (before tonight's game).
I took his last 4 complete seasons and boiled down what his "average" stats from those seasons would look like over 56 innings - which is what he's thrown this year.
Hits: Proj = 41; Actual 2009 = 40
BB: Proj = 26; Actual = 32
Ks: Proj = 72; Actual = 56
Earned Runs: Proj = 15; Actual = 20
HRs: Proj = 4; Actual = 6
So in other words, his hits are about the same but his walks (always high to start with for a closer) are up a bit while his strike-outs significantly down. And, not unexpectedly when batters are making contact more often and doing it with more guys on base, the runs & HRs rates are up as well.
Walks & HRs going up while Ks are headed down are a sign of a pitcher in decline rather than one who is just being unlucky.
On the other hand it could be the result of a small sample that he can get back to "normal" over the next 2-1/4 seasons. He's still in his prime years and is healthy as far as we know.
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