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Well look on the bright side ...

Frayed Knot Sep 17 2009 07:56 AM

We're falling into top-5 draft territory. Owners of MLB's 6th worst record at the moment. Not that I'm suggesting tanking for a better pick - the MLB draft is too skittish for that sort of thing even if it was ethical. But we'll definitely have a protected 1st round pick should we sign any 'Type A' FAs this winter plus early rights to the land where gems are more plentiful.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Sep 17 2009 08:59 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Been looking at things that way for a while now. Here's the thing, though-- a Type A still loses a high 2nd-rounder, at least (higher than where the team got Matz this year). Insulation against such losses is the main reason I was tense over the Wagner trade, and blahblahblah, blahblahblah.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 17 2009 09:09 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

How likely do we think the Mets are to sign a Type A guy this winter?

Edgy DC Sep 17 2009 09:12 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

They're certainly being provoked to. I'd call it 50/50.

attgig Sep 17 2009 10:14 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Benjamin Grimm":3w4069wj]How likely do we think the Mets are to sign a Type A guy this winter?[/quote:3w4069wj] probably depends on how much Holliday/Bay is willing to sign for. Would it be worth trying to trade for a LF'er and lose in house prospects instead?

Frayed Knot Sep 17 2009 10:23 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Benjamin Grimm":3lk0wdzn]How likely do we think the Mets are to sign a Type A guy this winter?[/quote:3lk0wdzn] Dunno. The point is that not only will their 1st round pick be real high but they would NOT lose it unlike recent years such as: 2006 - ceded 18th pick to Philly for signing Wagner; 2007 - 29th to Giants for Alou; or 2009 - 24th to LAA for F Rodriguez Instead, even a Type A signing would take away only (depending on how many "supplemental" picks there are next June) around pick # 50-something.

Frayed Knot Sep 17 2009 10:39 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Of course having a Top-6 draft pick is no guarantee it'll bring you a franchise player Here's ten years of Top-6 picks (ending with 2005 so as to gain some perspective) and a thumbnail sketch of each. Of the 59 different players (one was picked twice) I count a lot more who either never reached the majors (14) or were/are marginal players than ones who reached the level of a star* (16) Two were NYM picks: Getz in 1997, Humber in 2004 1996: 1 - Kris Benson (Coll RHP) 69-74. 4.41 over 11 injury racked seasons 2 - Travis Lee (Coll 1B) Career ended in 2006. 115 HRs, .256 3 - Braden Looper (Coll RHP) 70-64 + 103 saves over 12 ML seasons 4 - Billy Koch (Coll RHP) Career ended in 2004. 4 seasons as regular closer (163 saves) 5 - John Patterson (Coll RHP) 18-25, 4.32 over 5 seasons 6 - Seth Greisinger (Coll RHP) 10-16, 5.51 over parts of 4 ML seasons. 1997: 1 - Matt Anderson (College - RHP) Pitched in the majors between 1998-2005 (15-7; 5.19) and in the minors thru 2008 2 - JD Drew (College - OF) Did not sign 3 - * Troy Glaus - (College SS) 4-time All Star 4 - Jason Grilli (College RHP) Reached ML in 2000, Mostly situational reliever since 5 - * Vernon Wells (HS - OF) 9-year ML and counting. 2-time All Star 6 - Geoff Getz (HS - LHP) 7 years in minors plus 2 independent. Highest = AA 1998: 1 - * Pat Burrell (College - 3B) 2 - * Mark Mulder (College - LHP) 3 - Cory Patterson (HS - OF) Raced thru the minors but then stalled. 10 ML seasons - 5 as regular 4 - Jeff Austin (HS -RHP) Pitched in pieces of 3 ML seasons. Out of baseball by ‘06 5 - * JD Drew - Redrafted after not signing in ‘97 6 - Ryan Mills (College - RHP) 7 minor league seasons. Peaked at AAA Out of baseball in 2005 1999: 1 - * Josh Hamilton - A star eventually, although not for the team that picked him and not without drama in between 2 - * Josh Beckett - All Star 3 - Eric Munson - a college catcher, got 1,000 ABs in the majors and hit .214 Spent 2008 & 2009 in AAA 4 - Corey Myers - HS infielder never made MLB. Stayed in the minors thru 2007 getting as high as AAA 5 - BJ Garbe (HS OF) never made MLB. Reached AA and left baseball after 2006 6 - Josh Girdley (HS LHP) Stayed in minors thru 2004, never rose above A-ball 2000: 1 - * Adrian Gonzalez (HS) Became a regular and then a star 6 years and 4 organizations after the draft 2 - Adam Johnson (College RHP) - Pitched in 9 games in MLB. Last seen in independent ball in 2008 3 - Luiz Montanez (HS SS) Utility player in 2008-9 4 - Mike Stodolka (HS - LHP) Never played MLB. Reached AAA in 2008 5 - Justin Wayne (College RHP) Pitched parts of 3 seasons with a 5-8 career record. Out of baseball 6 - Rocco Baldelli (HS - OF) #3 ROY. Looked like solid player/possible star, then illness & injury (or maybe lack of plate discipline) caught up 2001: 1 - * Joe Mauer (HS - C) Star 2 - Mark Prior (Coll RHP) Injury-jinxed career 3 - Dewon Brazelton - (Coll RHP) Pitched pieces of 5 seasons n ML (8-25, 5.38). Out of baseball 4 - Gavin Floyd (HS - RHP) Reached ML in ‘04. Regular starter in 2008-09. (36-28, 4.65) 5 - * Mark Teixeira (Coll 3B) Star 6 - Josh Karp (Coll RHP) Never reached ML - topped out at AAA. Out of baseball after 5 minor lg seasons 2002: 1 - Bryan Bullington (Coll RHP) 13 games & 5 starts in ML for 3 orgs 2 - * BJ Upton (HS SS) ML by age 19. Starter/potential star. 3 - Christopher Gruler (HS RHP) Topped out in A-ball. Out of baseball by ‘06 4 - Adam Loewen (HS LHP) 3 partial years in ML before injuries ended pitching career. In A-ball trying to come back as OF 5 - Clint Everts (HS RHP) 7 seasons of minor leagues. Now reliever in AAA 6 - * Zack Greinke (HS RHP) Reached ML in 2004. Turned corner by ‘08 2003: 1 - Delmon Young (HS OF) Part-time player in 4th ML season 2 - Rickie Weeks (Coll 2B) Mostly regular starter in 6th season 3 - Kyle Sleeth (Coll RHP) Pitched 3 years in minors, topping out in AA. Out of baseball 4 - Tim Stauffer (Coll RHP) 8-13, 5.12 over parts of 4 seasons 5 - Christopher Lubanski (HS OF) In 3rd AAA season 6 - Ryan Harvey (HS RHP) 7th minor lg season. Reached AA 2004: 1 -Matt Bush (HS SS) Failed as both SS & pitcher. Out of baseball 2 - * Justin Verlander (HS RHP) 2-time All Star 3 - Philip Humber (Coll RHP) 30 ML innings pitched 4 - Jeff Neimanm (Coll RHP) 1st ML season in 2009 5 - Mark Rogers (HS RHP) Attempting comeback after 2 missed injury seasons. Hasn’t advanced beyond A-ball 6 - Jeremy Sowers (Coll LHP) Part-time starter over 4 seasons. 18-28, 4.95 2005: 1 - * Justin Upton (HS SS) Becoming a star 2 - Alex Gordon (Coll 3B) Mediocre starter over parts of 3 seasons 3 - Jeff Clement (Coll C) In AAA after parts of 2 ML seasons 4 - * Ryan Zimmerman (Coll 3B) Four years as starter. All Star in 2009 5 - * Ryan Braun (Coll 3B) 3-year ML starter. Twice All-Star 6 - Rickey Romero (Coll LHP) Reached ML in 2009

Centerfield Sep 17 2009 11:01 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Cool analysis. Still, I'd guess that 1-6 nets you a higher percentage of stars/starters than picks 7-12.

Gwreck Sep 17 2009 11:51 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Funny thing is that we traded both of those 2 picks -- before they reached the majors* -- for some of the best players our team has ever had. * Yes, Humber had a few scattered ML innings but that barely counts.

Ashie62 Sep 17 2009 12:06 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

I'll take Proven players over potential every day. Chance of a type A free agent.50/50 at best Think "Low Budget" by the Kinks

Frayed Knot Sep 17 2009 01:03 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Centerfield":tm7j2der]Cool analysis. Still, I'd guess that 1-6 nets you a higher percentage of stars/starters than picks 7-12.[/quote:tm7j2der] I'm sure you're right. I just didn't want to make it seem like I was encouraging the argument that 'playing for a better slot' (read: playing for, or rooting for, losses) is some sure-fire way to get a better player. I think a lot of fans have been conditioned to think that way via the absurd over-analysis that accompanies the NFL (and, to a lesser extent, the NBA) drafts where the "experts" convince you of their self-importance by deeming each slot moved up will net you the quantifiable better player and only by listening to them will you know who that player is. That attitude is bogus in those sports too only many times more so in baseball.

Ashie62 Sep 17 2009 08:58 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Out of the 60 names..I see 7 or 8 that made it..Mauer & Braun big. I'll still take a proven FA

Frayed Knot Sep 18 2009 08:25 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Ashie62"]Out of the 60 names..I see 7 or 8 that made it..Mauer & Braun big.

The odds are a bit better than that. Teixeira?, Greinke?, Beckett?
And if there were a kind of redispersement draft of current players Justin Upton would absolutely be one of the top 5 picks.

I'll still take a proven FA

Well no one is arguing for one path to the exclusion of the other.
The benefit of having a top 15 draft pick is that you can sign a type-A free agent AND not lose that pick to the team your guy is leaving.

Edgy DC Sep 18 2009 08:34 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

And it depends on the Type-A. Kevin Appier?

Gwreck Sep 18 2009 09:21 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Right, but we also lost a Type-A at the same as we signed Appier, so it was a wash. (Or slight improvement, as we gained a better spot than we lost). Plus the players we netted turned out pretty well for us.

Edgy DC Sep 18 2009 09:40 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

A net wash over the two transactions, but the Appier signing, maybe not. Who did the Athletics take? Bonderman? Crosby? Neither a great player, but each good enough to hint that the cheap-ass Mets might have done better to walk on by a type-A like Appier. That's a maybe. When you factor in a the Mo Vaughn deal and the over-priced contracts of that era, it's all pear-shaped, as irish might say.

Frayed Knot Sep 18 2009 10:52 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

2001 draft: - Mets obtain the 18th overall pick from the Rockies in compensation for the signing of FA Mike Hampton and choose Aaron Heilman - they also got the 38th overall pick as a supplemental choice and chose David Wright - the Mets lost their own 1st round pick, #26 overall for the signing of Kevin Appier - A's use the pick to select Jeremy Bonderman - A's also get the 37th pick (the one right before Wright) as the supplemental choice for losing Appier and selected John Rheinecker (Whew!)

The Second Spitter Sep 18 2009 11:15 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Frayed Knot"]2001 draft: - A's also get the 37th pick (the one right before Wright) as the supplemental choice for losing Appier and selected John Rheinecker (Whew!)

To be fair, the A's got Juan Dominguez in return for John Rheinecker, who put up a respectable 5-10 record for the Sacramento River Cats (AAA) at a 5.86 ERA.

Edgy DC Sep 18 2009 11:51 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Yeah, well, the Mets got 0.9 Wins Above Replacement out of Mo Vaughn and lets say another 5.0 out of Appier for 2001 (the numbers don't go back past 2002 at fangraphs.com, and I don't know how to calculate it, but that's certainly on the generous side). That's 5.9 WARs over three seasons for $37,833,334 and that's not counting the $17+ mills that Vaughn was owed when he retired. I don't know what becomes of that. Bonderman has given his eventual team (Detroit) seven seasons (really five, plus two partials) and 17.2 WARs for $16,330,000. I'd say Oakland is the clear winner here. They just didn't know it until after they dealt Bonderman too Detroit in some monstrous three-way with the Yankees. I'm certain it would look similarly bad if you take Vaughn out the equation and just stick with Appier to the end of his contract.

Frayed Knot Sep 18 2009 01:11 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Triple Dee"]To be fair, the A's got Juan Dominguez in return for John Rheinecker, who put up a respectable 5-10 record for the Sacramento River Cats (AAA) at a 5.86 ERA.

Well sure, but any pick other than Wright in that whole round (probably that whole draft) other than Mauer and maybe - maybe - Teixeira would look like a bummer in retrospect and, fans being fans and media being media, the hindsight of selecting the 'wrong' one there would be used as an example of incompetence by those pretending as if the two were known quantities at the time.
IOW, lucky for us the A's didn't snag Wright, and hence the 'WHEW!'

I can see the t-shirts for sale outside of Citifield now:
My GM Let Mike Hampton go FA
and All I Got was a Lousy Rheinecker

Frayed Knot Sep 18 2009 01:21 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

The best thing form a NYM standpoint of the whole Appier/Vaughn swap was that the Mets inherited the insurance policy that the Angels purchased for Mo's contract which made that final year he sat out here about 80% free. Meanwhile LAA wound up cutting Appier with more than year left and had to eat some huge amount of money.

TheOldMole Sep 18 2009 01:22 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

They might sign a type A personality.

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2009 11:47 AM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

2010 Draft 1. Nationals 2. Pirates 3. Orioles 4. Royals 5. Indians 6. Diamondbacks 7. Mets 8. Astros 9. Padres 10. Athletics 11. Blue Jays 12. Reds 13. White Sox 14. Brewers 15. Rangers (for failure to sign Matt Purke) 16. Cubs 17. Rays 18. Mariners 19. Tigers/Twins loser 20. Braves 21. Tigers/Twins winner 22. Rangers 23. Marlins 24. Giants 25. Cardinals 26. Rockies 27. Phillies 28. Dodgers 29. Red Sox 30. Angels 31. Rays (for failure to sign LeVon Washington) 32. Yankees

MFS62 Oct 05 2009 12:19 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

Well, at least that #7 spot protects their first round pick if they sign a type A free agent. Later

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2009 02:45 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="MFS62":2hjjccqe]Well, at least that #7 spot protects their first round pick if they sign a type A free agent.[/quote:2hjjccqe] Which, of course, was the thesis of sorts that gave this thread both it's start and it's subject heading. 7th overall picks in the last 20 years: 1990 - Dan Wilson, catcher, Reds -- 14 year career, 1 AS game, averaged about 300 ABs/year 1991 - Joe Vitiello, OF, Royals -- ~700 ML ABs over parts of 7 seasons 1992 - Calvin Murray, OF, Giants -- 600+ ML ABs, about half of those in one season 1993 - Trot Nixon, OF, Red Sox -- 12 seasons about 7 of them as a full-times/LH-platoon. Career = 3,300 ABs & 137 HRs 1994 - Doug Millon, LHP, Rockies -- Reached AA in 4 minor league seasons. Died at the end of 1997 1995 - Jonathan Johnson, RHP, Rangers -- 42 ML games including 4 starts over parts of 6 seasons. 2-4, 6.63 1996 - Matt White, RHP, Giants -- Did not sign 1997 - Dan Reichert, RHP, Royals -- 21-25, 5.55 over 5 seasons 1998 - Asutin Kearns, OF, Reds -- 3rd in RoY (2002) but then downhill after about year three. Career to date = 2,900 ABs & 105 HRs 1999 - Kyle Snyder, RHP, Royals -- 8-17, 5.57 over 5 ML seasons. 3-8, 4.24 for AAA Buffalo in 2009. 2000 - Matt Harrington, RHP, Rockies -- One of the strangest, saddest tales of botched negotiations, lawsuits, and musical agents, Harrington never signed even after being drafted several times and wound up playing strictly in independent leagues through 2007. 2001 - Chris Smith, LHP, Orioles -- The Wantagh, NY native never advanced beyond A-ball in 4 minor league seasons. Out of baseball since 2006. 2002 - Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers 2003 - Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles 2004 - Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds -- Went from being dubbed one of the best pitching prospects in the minors to a bust, bounced back to go 8-5, 4.43 in 20 ML starts this year. Still only 23. 2005 - Troy Tulowitski, SS, Rockies 2006 - Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers -- Emerging as a potential ace in his first full ML season at age 21 2007 - Matt LaPorta, 1B, Brewers -- Main cog in the trade to land CC Sabathia. .254/.308/.442 w/7 HRs in 142 ABs in initial ML season 2008 - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds -- College player with a good first full season in minors split between A & AA 2009 - Mike Minor, LHP, Braves -- Bit of a surprise pick when it happened. No record yet. Maybe just a coincidence, but perhaps it's a good sign that the picks in this slot have gotten better over the years. The last 8 choices have produced 3 current stars and several more potential ones as opposed to the mix of platoon players and failures of earlier years.

seawolf17 Oct 05 2009 02:48 PM Re: Well look on the bright side ...

[quote="Frayed Knot":r7n73s9f]2001 - Chris Smith, LHP, Orioles -- The Wantagh, NY native never advanced beyond A-ball in 4 minor league seasons. Out of baseball since 2006.[/quote:r7n73s9f] Coaching at SUNY Old Westbury last I looked.