Master Index of Archived Threads


Runs Created Comps

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2009 05:47 PM

Thought I'd take a look at some no-ffensive stats Our problem in 2008 is that the offense relied on a kind of Big-Four/Little-Four scenario, one where All-Star quality bats at four positions (3B, SS, CF, 1B) tried to cover up for the deficiencies at the other four (2B, C, LF, RF) The problem this year was that while those other four improved, we just didn't get the either the quality (Wright) or the quantity (Beltran, Reyes & Delgado) we got last year. Player -- RC '08 -- RC '09 Wright -- 135 --- 96 Reyes -- 122 --- 23 Beltran -- 121 --- 66 Delgado -- 108 -- 20 That's a huge freakin' hit. Obviously other than Wright, the drops were all due to severely reduced playing time and the replacements couldn't anywhere near make up for the drop. With Wright his playing time was nearly the same but his RC/G dropped from 7.7/per down to 6.4 On the plus side, there was Castillo who went from 36 RC to 70, or a RC/G of 3.9 to 4.9 Tatis produced about the same overall: 49 in 2008 vs 48 in 2009, but that was spread over more playing time: 6.6/G vs 4.8/G Murphy also upped his RC from 24 to 66 but it took him about 4x the playing time to get there and so his per/game fell from 6.6 to 4.4 The Francoeur/Church deal worked out in our favor (at least so far): Church last year 5.1/G and this year 4.2/G made way for Francoeur at 6.1/G

Nymr83 Oct 05 2009 10:09 PM Re: Runs Created Comps

With Wright his playing time was nearly the same i wouldn't call a 16 game and 117 PA dropoff "nearly the same", he had alot less opportunities than last year even as he produced less per chance.

The Second Spitter Oct 06 2009 12:55 AM Re: Runs Created Comps

[quote="Frayed Knot":z57f2e4p] Player -- RC '08 -- RC '09 Reyes -- 122 --- 23 Beltran -- 121 --- 66 and the replacements couldn't anywhere near make up for the drop.[/quote:z57f2e4p] How does Pagan compare to these two from your dataset? [quote="Frayed Knot":z57f2e4p] The Francoeur/Church deal worked out in our favor (at least so far): Church last year 5.1/G and this year 4.2/G made way for Francoeur at 6.1/G[/quote:z57f2e4p] I don't have access to the same data, but I pulled these from Nelson Lu's analysis; (RC/25, PRC/25, Value) Ryan Church, Atlanta 4.56 4.71 14.4 Jeff Francoeur, New York-N 4.39 4.55 13.4 RC= Run created per 25 outs (NB: There's a reason it's "25" rather than "27", I just can't remember what it was.) PRC= Park adjusted RC Value= Runs > replacement level Daniel Murphy was only 2.5 runs created above a replacement level 1st baseman. The fourth worst in the Majors.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2009 08:08 AM Re: Runs Created Comps

[quote="Nymr83"] With Wright his playing time was nearly the same i wouldn't call a 16 game and 117 PA dropoff "nearly the same", he had alot less opportunities than last year even as he produced less per chance.

Yeah, the gap was bigger than I realized, I just meant that at least in his case we're comparing him as a full-timer to a (almost) full-timer - as opposed to the others whose playing time took crashing hits.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2009 08:17 AM Re: Runs Created Comps

[quote="Triple Dee"][quote="Frayed Knot"] Player -- RC '08 -- RC '09 Reyes -- 122 --- 23 Beltran -- 121 --- 66 and the replacements couldn't anywhere near make up for the drop.

How does Pagan compare to these two from your dataset?

Pagan had 59 RC -- which works out to 6.2/G, a rate better than anyone not named Wright or Beltran (or the really small sample of Delgado)

[quote="Frayed Knot"] The Francoeur/Church deal worked out in our favor (at least so far): Church last year 5.1/G and this year 4.2/G made way for Francoeur at 6.1/G

I don't have access to the same data, but I pulled these from Nelson Lu's analysis;

(RC/25, PRC/25, Value)
Ryan Church, Atlanta 4.56 4.71 14.4
Jeff Francoeur, New York-N 4.39 4.55 13.4

RC= Run created per 25 outs (NB: There's a reason it's "25" rather than "27", I just can't remember what it was.)
PRC= Park adjusted RC
Value= Runs > replacement level


Data is from BB-Ref. I was looking at Francoeur the Met vs Church the Met

Daniel Murphy was only 2.5 runs created above a replacement level 1st baseman. The fourth worst in the Majors.

And, as I pointed out, produced at a rate far below his small sample from last season. The biggest mis-calculation of the Mets (and a lot of their fans) coming into this year IMO was the assumption that Murphy's bat would work in a corner spot. Maybe it will some day but, at best, that timetable was rushed.

The Second Spitter Oct 06 2009 08:29 AM Re: Runs Created Comps

FK: And, as I pointed out, produced at a rate far below his small sample from last season. The biggest mis-calculation of the Mets (and a lot of their fans) coming into this year IMO was the assumption that Murphy's bat would work in a corner spot. Maybe it will some day but, at best, that timetable was rushed. Hah. I remember I sent Nelson an email last year inquiring about Daniel Murphy's RC & Value. His response was something like: I don't make the caluculation for players where the outcome is not statistically significant.