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Threesome Rumor

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 09 2009 05:59 PM

The offseason has given birth to its first Met-Related Rumor! Overbay is nuthin special, maybe an old version of Muffy. I kind of like the idea of moving Castillo though, because it presents a whole new set of possibilities (Chone Figgins?) Sources: Bradley being discussed in 3-way deal by Ken Rosenthal CHICAGO - The idea, while described as a longshot, is at least one way for the Cubs to trade outfielder Milton Bradley. Bradley to the Blue Jays. First baseman Lyle Overbay to the Mets. Second baseman Luis Castillo to the Cubs. The teams indeed have discussed the framework of such a deal, though not in direct fashion, according to major-league sources. The Cubs spoke to the Mets about Bradley-for-Castillo, while the Mets spoke to the Jays about Bradley-for-Overbay, sources say. The Rays, however, remain the club most interested in Bradley, sources say, proposing an exchange of outfielder/designated hitter Pat Burrell for Bradley. Burrell and Bradley each will make $9 million in 2010. The Cubs would need to pick up a significant portion of Bradley's $12 million salary in '11 to make a deal to work. The three-team possibility, according to one source, has "some legs, but not much." The Jays are opposed to the deal, one source says — perhaps because new GM Alex Anthopolous does not want a trade for Bradley to be his first major move. Still, the mere discussion of Bradley, Castillo and Overbay between the clubs offers insight into each team's thinking. Castillo, who has two years left on his contract at $6 million per season, would add speed and on-base skills to the top of the Cubs' lineup, but is not an ideal fit. The Cubs eventually want to move Ryan Theriot to second to make room for top shortstop prospect Starlin Castro. The Mets are in the same position they were a year ago — eager to trade Castillo and sign free-agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The additions of both Hudson and Overbay would revamp the right side of their infield, and Overbay's line-drive stroke would play well at spacious Citi Field. The Jays clearly are open to moving Overbay — they recently discussed sending him to the Diamondbacks for catcher Chris Snyder. A trade of Overbay would clear first base for Adam Lind, and Bradley could serve as a left fielder/DH. The Cubs intend to move Bradley, and are willing to assume a chunk of the $21 million remaining on his contract. But they believe that there is enough interest in Bradley for them to avoid paying the vast sum that many outsiders project will be necessary to complete a deal.

bmfc1 Nov 09 2009 06:02 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

Overbay is no big deal but since I've said that I'd give away Castillo, getting Overbay is a steal.

smg58 Nov 09 2009 06:36 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

Assuming that the new Padres ownership and GM aren't insane, a one-year fix at first base would be ideal for the Mets, and Overbay fits the bill. His ability to hit lefties is a question mark, but that would give Nick Evans something to do. I wouldn't miss Castillo. I don't buy the Hudson argument, though -- his asking price was hardly prohibitive if the Mets wanted him that badly. As for wanting him now, sure I'm interested but I'm worried we'd be buying high this time around. Whether this three-club deal works or not, I think talking to the Cubs about Castillo and talking to the Jays about Overbay (among other players) are good steps in the right direction.

Fman99 Nov 09 2009 06:44 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

I was hoping this would be a discussion of me, Denise Richards and Neve Campbell a la "Wild Things."

Ashie62 Nov 09 2009 08:48 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="Fman99":15fb55li]I was hoping this would be a discussion of me, Denise Richards and Neve Campbell a la "Wild Things."[/quote:15fb55li] you and me both.. Castillo,Overbay,and Bradley are mediocre at best and show NO CLEAVAGE

Frayed Knot Nov 09 2009 09:39 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

Not all that excited about Overbay -- 33 before next season starts; LH stick; .350-ish OBA with 41 HRs [u:393yy8po]Total[/u:393yy8po] over the last three seasons Hell, we can get that out of Muffy It essentially closes no holes and - despite what we may think of Castillo - opens up one.

smg58 Nov 10 2009 05:55 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Overbay had nagging injuries in 07 and 08. This year he had an OPS over .900 against righties, which Murphy won't come close to matching. Evans has an OPS of .872 against major league lefties, so you'd be getting very good production out of first base while leaving nearly all your resources to spend elsewhere. Plus it would buy Ike another year of freshening, while leaving the door wide open for him next year.

metirish Nov 10 2009 06:40 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Holliday, Bay bidding may surpass Mets' appetite By Adam Rubin Omar Minaya arrived at the GM Meetings at the O’Hare Hilton on Monday night maintaining it was his obligation to investigate the price tags of top-tier free agents. However, a team insider told the Daily News he expected that the salary demands of outfielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay would exceed the organization’s comfort level. Instead, the Mets expect to sign a left fielder from the second tier group of free agents, or acquire one via trade, a team source said. Picking up a power bat in left field would allow the Mets to follow through with their intention of using Daniel Murphy as the primary first baseman next season. One report listed Mike Cameron as a potential target for left field because of his power and defense, but a source close to the ex-Met didn’t see a match because Cameron still wants to play center field. A team official would not rule out Carlos Delgado returning, but portrayed it as an unlikely scenario barring Delgado’s willingness for a low-cost, one-year deal. The Mets continue to hope they can trade Luis Castillo, who is owed $12 million over two years, as a way to create room to sign Orlando Hudson. Foxsports.com reported a potential three-way deal in which Castillo goes to the Cubs, Milton Bradley to the Blue Jays and Lyle Overbay to the Mets, but it was portrayed as a long shot. The Mets also need to obtain a No. 1 catcher so that Josh Thole can open 2010 at Triple-A Buffalo, but the free-agent class does not excite the organization. The preference clearly appears to be Bengie Molina, although the length of Molina’s contract demand could force the Mets to turn elsewhere. Team officials suggest they’re not enthused about fellow free agent Rod Barajas, the best apparent alternative. The Mets also hope to re-sign Alex Cora as the backup middle infielder, although the fact that he’s represented by Scott Boras makes team officials concerned he could land elsewhere. Team officials also are expected to name a bench coach this week, in addition to officially hiring former Diamondbacks third base coach Chip Hale in that same role. The leading candidate now appears to be former Orioles bench coach Dave Jauss, who worked with Jerry Manuel in Montreal. Former D-backs skipper Bob Melvin and Razor Shines have been the others to watch. Shines would coach first base assuming Jauss is selected, with Sandy Alomar Jr. remaining the catching instructor. The Mets also received some less-than-stellar news courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau. Elias, which computes the statistical rankings, determined the Mets would receive no draft-pick compensation if Brian Schneider, J.J. Putz or Cora signs elsewhere. (Neither Putz nor Schneider is expected to be re-signed.) Delgado or Fernando Tatis, as Type B free agents, would yield a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. However, the Mets can’t offer the arbitration to Delgado required to gain that pick because of the high salary Delgado could command in arbitration if he accepted. The Mets are now expected to nontender arbitration-eligible Tim Redding and Jeremy Reed before the Dec. 12 deadline, cutting them loose, although there was a small chance Redding could remain. On a positive note, Johan Santana and Jose Reyes are on the mend, agent Chris Leible said. Santana, who had surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow, expects to have his normal winter throwing program. Reyes, who suffered a torn right hamstring the final week of the season while rehabbing, is now walking freely without crutches. “He’s not 100%, obviously, at this point, but he looks great,” Leible said. Gary Sheffield, who will not return, filed for free agency Monday.

HahnSolo Nov 10 2009 07:10 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Rubin should have just written: Omar Minaya arrived at the GM meetings. The Mets might do some things, but probably not. That's his whole story. Also, didn't Hudson lose his starting job last year to Ronnie f'in Belliard? I understand trying to sell high on Castillo, but is Hudson really the answer?

Edgy DC Nov 10 2009 07:16 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

He got to the plate 631 times and made the All Star Team, so it doesn't look like he ever really lost his job.

Frayed Knot Nov 10 2009 07:24 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="smg58":u7r73anp]Overbay had nagging injuries in 07 and 08. This year he had an OPS over .900 against righties, which Murphy won't come close to matching. Evans has an OPS of .872 against major league lefties, so you'd be getting very good production out of first base while leaving nearly all your resources to spend elsewhere. [/quote:u7r73anp] That's all assuming that those splits hold up (career OPS vs RHP favors Overbay but only by .847 to .775) and that the 24 y/o doesn't improve while the 33 y/o (the one with those nagging injuries) doesn't decline. It also doesn't save all that many resources as it pays the LH 1B platoon half about an extra $7mil, less than the savings you'd gain by dumping Castillo. Yeah it would save you money in 2011 but that doesn't include what you'd have to pay for a replacement 2B. I don't want to dump on Overbay (or over-praise Murph) but I see this as a lateral move at best. Castillo - even with his limitations heaped on top of the horrid start plus the bad contract - is a useful piece when getting on base 38-40% of the time and 2009 was a lot closer to his norm than was 2008.

Edgy DC Nov 10 2009 07:30 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

(OldCPFJoke)Overpay for Overbay!(/OldCPFJoke)

metirish Nov 10 2009 07:37 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Were big things ever expected of Overbay, in my mind he always seemed like one of those players that you expected that "this season" would be his big breakout , never really happened though.

metirish Nov 10 2009 07:41 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Possible wifey alert Joe Mauer, Lyle Overbay, Chase Utely, Brian Schneider, myself and Sarah Overbay on the bullet train from Tokyo to Kyoto. From Chris Young's Japan Blog

HahnSolo Nov 10 2009 07:51 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="Edgy DC":15h8q7u9]He got to the plate 631 times and made the All Star Team, so it doesn't look like he ever really lost his job.[/quote:15h8q7u9] Did he get hurt then, cuz Belliard started every postseason game.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Nov 10 2009 08:02 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Overbay's WAR since 2005: 2.4/ 2.5/ 0.1/ 1.8/ 2.0 If we can take 2007 as an injury-caused outlier (which I think we can), he looks like a pretty safe bet for about a 2 win season. Here's Castillo over the same time period: 3.8/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 0.6/ 1.6 As I see it, there are a few ways to take that info. Perhaps he's in decline, going from a four win player to a one and half win player over the last few years. Or, perhaps he's about a two win player with a great season and a terrible injured one. It seems tough to project whether he'll be better next season than Overbay, but I think I'd bet on Overbay if I had the choice. Now, and this would be a separate move, but if the idea behind trading Castillo is to make room for Hudson, then we can compare a Murphy/Castillo 1b/2b combo to Overbay/Hudson. Here's Hudson's WAR since 2005: 2.2/ 2.6/ 3.3/ 2.0/ 2.9 Murphy had a 0.9 WAR in 2008 playing the outfield and a 0.6 WAR last year at first. I think a Murphy/Castillo combo would get you somewhere between 2-3 wins over replacement while the Overbay/Hudson combo gets you 4-5. Of course, the latter would be more expensive than the former by, basically, whatever Hudson costs less around two million, but it looks like a pair of steps in the right direction.

Edgy DC Nov 10 2009 08:07 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Yeah, I think you may be right. Torre appears to have had a lateblooming mancrush on Belly-yard during the post-season. Came to the Dodgers in a deal that had to go through waivers in late August and tore the cover off the ball in September. I can't find any evidence that anything was wrong with Hudson. Torre just want with the hot hand.

metirish Nov 10 2009 11:28 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Omar...........speaks.....at the GM .....meetings Mets underwhelmed by free agent market CHICAGO - The Mets have so much to do this offseason. They just wish their list of options looked more attractive. "Some years are better than others," Omar Minaya told reporters yesterday, as the Mets' general manager arrived for the GMs' meetings. This would be one of the weaker years, but the free-agent market nevertheless features what Minaya considers the team's top need. Outfielders Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are both power-hitting outfielders, and as Minaya said, "I think we have to find a way to slug more." Surprisingly, some Mets officials think Bay plays a better defensive leftfield than Holliday, the opposite of what most scouts and statistical analysts think. Yet the Mets aren't that concerned about defense when it comes to this spot. Holliday is the superior hitter to Bay, and as Newsday reported last month, Holliday regards the Mets as his second choice, after the Yankees (who don't appear inclined to sign Holliday). The Mets also have needs at first base, catcher and starting pitching. The markets for first base and catcher are flooded, and Fox Sports reported Monday, on its Web site, that the Mets had held discussions with the Cubs about trading second baseman Luis Castillo for controversial outfielder Milton Bradley, then flipping Bradley to Toronto for first baseman Lyle Overbay. The Mets could then sign free agent Orlando Hudson to play second base. Among the top available catchers on the market will be Toronto's Rod Barajas, San Francisco's Bengie Molina and Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba. The Angels' John Lackey tops the list of free-agent starting pitchers, which also features the Dodgers' Randy Wolf and Colorado's Jason Marquis. "I think you always have to explore - and in the past, I've always explored, at least - the availability of the better players," Minaya said. "I think me going forward, if those guys are healthy, I still think we owe it to at least find out, if the better players are there, what is the possibility of acquiring these players?" Notes & quotes: The meetings will kick off in earnest Tuesday. Monday featured a GMs' dinner . . . The Red Sox signed Tim Wakefield, 43, to a two-year, $5-million contract through 2011 and they exercised their $7.7-million team option on Victor Martinez. They turned down their $5-million team option on Jason Varitek, Boston's captain, who can still exercise his $3-million player option.

Frayed Knot Nov 10 2009 11:33 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Traditionally not much tangible goes on at these GM meetings as rosters aren't finalized yet and the non-tender date is still in the future. What does usually happen is that the seeds are being sewn for future trades/deals/signings which tend to kick in around the time of the much larger scale winter meetings in December.

metirish Nov 10 2009 11:36 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

What about this Surprisingly, some Mets officials think Bay plays a better defensive leftfield than Holliday, the opposite of what most scouts and statistical analysts think.

Frayed Knot Nov 10 2009 11:44 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

Neither is particularly good in the field. I'm not going to claim to see either enough to know which one is less worse - but I don't think the difference is all that great to the point where you're going to make a decision based on that alone. Also, my normal skepticism of defensive stats goes right off the charts when LF in Fenway becomes involved. It's such a freaky place with so little ground to cover yet so many tricky things that can occur that questionable morphs into meaningless where numbers are concerned.

soupcan Nov 10 2009 12:33 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="metirish"]What about this Surprisingly, some Mets officials think Bay plays a better defensive leftfield than Holliday, the opposite of what most scouts and statistical analysts think.

I'm going to guess and say that the Mets think Bay will come cheaper than Holliday so when they go for him, they don't want to be criticized for being cheap and not going after the better defensive player because he was more expensive.

Edgy DC Nov 10 2009 12:39 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

If the Mets pick the cheaper option, I don't think it will be because they refused to pay for the alleged defensive difference between Bay and Holliday.

soupcan Nov 10 2009 01:15 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

But you don't write for The Post.

metirish Nov 10 2009 01:59 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

Top Fifty Free Agents as ranked by SI......it's a good time waster which in this economy means a lot. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... index.html FWIW , he has Holliday , Adam LaRoche , Marquis and Torrealba as "Best Fits" for the Mets

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 10 2009 02:38 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="soupcan"][quote="metirish"]What about this Surprisingly, some Mets officials think Bay plays a better defensive leftfield than Holliday, the opposite of what most scouts and statistical analysts think.

I'm going to guess and say that the Mets think Bay will come cheaper than Holliday so when they go for him, they don't want to be criticized for being cheap and not going after the better defensive player because he was more expensive.

A lot of baseball people think of defensive prowess in terms of "what he does with/around the ball," as opposed to "does he get to the ball." As embarrassing as balls-off-the-crotch are, range matters a LOT more in terms of defensive metrics (as well as actual effect on team defense). Holliday is significantly and reliably better than Bay at getting to balls-- he's markedly faster at this point in their careers-- which is why he rates so much better on defensive metrics.

(And I get where you're coming from RE: Fenway, FK, but Bay was kinda-to-very-shitty in Pittsburgh, too.)

Nymr83 Nov 10 2009 06:56 PM Re: Threesome Rumor

Castillo had a good year compared to what was expected of him, but the Mets would be wise to "sell high" with 2 years left on a contract that last winter they'd have probably paid to get rid of.

smg58 Nov 11 2009 06:50 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

I realize that a lot of people's impressions of Holliday as a fielder are going to be swayed by that one bad play in the Dodgers series, but even if you give the sabermetric anaylsis of defense huge error bars, the difference between Holliday and Bay is enormous. The Fielding Bible has rated Holliday as above average in each of the last three seasons, and rates him third among leftfielders in 2009. Bay has been rated as strongly negative each of the last three years. Fangraphs likewise rates Holliday highly, although not as highly this year as the past two (in contrast to The Fielding Bible). And they just rated Bay as the fifth worst fielder at any position over the past three years. I have no problem playing coy right now. Holliday is not Teixeira, and doesn't deserve as big a contract. But some Mets officials really think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday? If that's true, then some Mets officials need to be fired quickly.

metirish Nov 11 2009 06:58 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

I realize that a lot of people's impressions of Holliday as a fielder are going to be swayed by that one bad play in the Dodgers series, Those people are not here on this board though...

soupcan Nov 11 2009 07:13 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="smg58":159bddii]But some Mets officials really think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday? If that's true, then some Mets officials need to be fired quickly.[/quote:159bddii] See my post above...

Edgy DC Nov 11 2009 07:32 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

You know, the Mets have gone into the season the last decade banking on such defensive stalwarts as Murphy, Alou, Alou, Floyd, Floyd, Floyd, Floyd, Cedeńo, Agbyani, Henderson, and Henderson in leftfield. I don't think they give much more than a pair of crusty underwear over the defensive difference between Holliday and Bay.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 11 2009 07:41 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

[quote="Edgy DC":1x3oo7l6]I don't think they give much more than a pair of crusty underwear over the defensive difference between Holliday and Bay.[/quote:1x3oo7l6] I think that's probably true.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 11 2009 07:48 AM Re: Threesome Rumor

They do pay it lip service though. I think the Mets care about D at 2B, CF, SS and C like they're supposed to.