|
For the Mets, there are already legitimate questions about whether Jason Bay is the right investment for their ballpark. He is a below-average defender who hits for power and Citi Field is a place where deep fly balls and subpar outfielders will suffer.
But as the Bay negotiations drag out, there are growing doubts about whether Bay even wants to play for the Mets, in their grand canyon of a park.
The Mets are aware of all this -- and while they still would like to sign Bay very soon, the team is internally mapping out alternative routes in the event that Bay doesn't embrace their offer.
And those options include adding depth, rather the one big name, like Bay.
There is no perfect Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay solution for the Mets, because rival front offices are not lured by their prospects -- and because the free-agent market, in general, is weak. But there are a ton of unsigned free agents, and if you have $15 million to $22 million available in cash at this point, you don't have a lot of competition. You would be like the guy who waits until after Dec. 25 to do his Christmas shopping; the best stuff might be gone, but he will have a lot of choices.
The key, as one major league official mused on Tuesday night, is picking the right players -- using the money the right way. If the Mets come to believe that Bay doesn't want to play for them, they should go the route of the Seattle Mariners and shape their choices according to their ballpark and build some depth. They could consider a series of moves along these lines:
1. Make the move for Orlando Hudson, something that the Mets have been dying to do for two years: Luis Castillo had a surprisingly decent season last year, but Hudson is the better player -- he drives the ball more (50 extra-base hits last year), and he's a better defensive player; he scored significantly better than Castillo in the UZR/150 ratings. He's an energizing force who would be good in the New York clubhouse, and would take pressure off the likes of David Wright and Carlos Beltran in dealing with the New York media. You sign Hudson and then figure out what to do with Castillo, whether it would be eating a significant share of the money owed to him to dump him or simply using him as a part-timer.
2. Sign a low-cost veteran outfielder, like Randy Winn: He can play multiple outfield positions, he still rates very well in his defense -- and this is something you need from your outfielders while playing in a park like Citi Field. The Mariners showed this approach last year with the strong outfield defense they played in Safeco. How much would he cost? Well, the guess here is that Winn doesn't have a lot of options, and maybe he bites if you dangle a one-year deal for something in the range of $2.5 million. He might not hit for power, but he'll play good defense, run the bases well, lend some versatility and experience -- and you keep flexibility by signing him to a one-year deal. Winn was not a good player for the Giants last season, but he often hit near the top of the San Francisco lineup and more was needed from him than he could provide. With the Mets, he would probably hit at the bottom of the order.
3. Consider a strong two-year offer to Mark DeRosa: There are concerns among teams about whether DeRosa is going to be effective, as he comes back from a wrist injury. But if the Mets are at least somewhat satisfied that he can be a productive player moving forward, they could outbid the market on a DeRosa deal. He could play first base against left-handed pitchers (with Daniel Murphy starting against right-handers), given his .587 slugging percentage and .928 OPS against lefties last year, and DeRosa could start against right-handers according to the needs of the day -- maybe in left field, maybe at third base if David Wright needs a day off, or at second if Hudson or Castillo needed a day off.
4. Make solid one-year offers to the best strike-throwing relief specialists on the market: Bob Howry held right-handed batters to a .231 on-base percentage last year; maybe he would be that kind of guy. Chan Ho Park held right-handers to a .678 OPS, and seems durable; maybe he would be that kind of guy for the Mets.
5. Take a look at Jarrod Washburn: Maybe he's not healthy. Maybe he's not excited about pitching in New York, in the National League. But he is a fly ball pitcher who threw pretty well for the first four months of last season (check out the month to month totals here), and presumably, he would not be expensive on a one-year contract; if he is, you move on to other options.
6. Make a solid two-year offer to Fernando Rodney, to strengthen your group of set-up men: It looks like he could be headed to the Angels or the Phillies, but if the Mets got him, he wouldn't cost a draft pick (unlike Jose Valverde) and the back end of the team's bullpen could become a strength.
7. Make solid one-year offers to starting pitchers who might be trying to rebuild their market value, whether it be someone like Brett Myers or Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland.
8. If you like Joel Pineiro, make an offer that you're comfortable with: If Pineiro -- the best starting pitcher still unsigned -- wants more than what you're offering, then you move on to other pitchers. There is volume in this current market.
A key in all of these moves is flexibility. If the Mets don't sign Bay, they should look for very short-term obligations, one-year or two-year deals, to keep themselves in position to make bids next winter, when the free-agent crop will be better. The advantage for the Mets now is that they still have a good core of players who will presumably have better luck in staying healthy this year -- Johan Santana, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez.
What they do not need is a long-term investment in Bay if he doesn't want to play for them; the last thing the Mets can afford now is to have a reluctant $16 million player. If they don't get an answer soon, they should move on and take advantage of the fact they're one of the few teams with a nice chunk of change to spend.
The Mets are still silent, writes John Harper. The Bay Watch has hit 13 days, writes Mike Vaccaro. The Mets are near a deal with a pitcher missing an elbow ligament.
|
