Master Index of Archived Threads
Mets Offense 2005
| Rotblatt Sep 19 2005 10:44 AM |
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Here's an official thread to examine our offense over 2005. I'm going to lift some of the work I've done in other threads and post it here.
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| Rotblatt Sep 19 2005 10:48 AM |
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Consistency in scoring did not correlate to winning more games [according to some recent work done by a poster over at the Sons of Sam Horn], at least in the AL, which means it's probably also true in the NL. And even if it DID, the Mets didn't seem to be significantly worse than most of the teams ahead of us in the NL in terms of consistency. Some other stats regarding consistency for you, based on handy new info from BP. I didn't break this out by AL/NL cause it was easier just to tally them all up. If you'd like to break it down, I'd be very interested. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/team_game_results2005.php): Mets record when scoring 0 runs 0-11 MLB average # of games: 8 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 0-11, 0-8 Mets record when scoring 1 run 4-12, .250 WP MLB average winning percentage: .087 Average # of games: 14; Mets: 16 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 4-23 (.074), 1-21 (.045) 2 runs 4-15, .211 WP MLB average winning percentage: .256 Average # of games: 19 G; Mets: 19 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 8-38 (.174), 6-35 (.154) 3 runs 6-17. .261 WP MLB average WP: .337 Average # of games: 19 G; Mets: 23 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 14-55 (.203), 12-48 (.200) 4 runs 5-10, .333 WP MLB average WP: .486 Average # of games: 19; Mets: 15 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 19-65 (.226), 21-58 (.266) 5 runs 9-4, .692 WP MLB average WP: .619 Average # of games: 17; Mets: 13 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 28-69 (.289), 33-64 (.340) 6 runs or more 43-5, .896 WP MLB Average: .833 Average # of games: 48; Mets: 48 Mets Cumulative W/L v. Average team: 71-74 (.490), 73-72 (.503) The problem, as I see it, isn't that we didn't score enough runs consistently, it's that we won at a below average rate in games where we scored between 2 & 4 runs. If we had won at an average rate in those situations, we would have won 5 extra games, without scoring a single extra run. So basically, our pitching, despite being well above average, didn't do as well in low-scoring games as the average MLB pitching staff. At least, that's my conclusion. Whaddya think?
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| Rotblatt Sep 19 2005 10:52 AM |
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Stats accurate as of September 9:
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| Rotblatt Sep 19 2005 10:55 AM |
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Consistency of Scoring:
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| Rotblatt Sep 19 2005 10:58 AM |
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Offense at Home Versus Away (all stats accurate through 8/22/05):
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| heep Sep 19 2005 09:23 PM |
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We desperately need to upgrade our offense for next year. We defintiely strike out too much, and need to up the AVG and OBP.
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| Edgy DC Sep 19 2005 09:55 PM |
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We need to do better offensively. I wouldn't say the need is desperate to upgrade. A team can over-reach. I also don't think strikeouts are an issue so much as outouts.
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| Frayed Knot Sep 19 2005 10:13 PM |
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Rule 1 of contract acquisitions:
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| Rotblatt Sep 20 2005 04:47 AM |
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I don't mind the strikeouts, although I agree we need to get on base more. And I totally agree that we should add some offense. If, as I think, we ARE an average offense already, we have a very real opportunity to put together a kick-ass offense because our two holes are so very, very large.
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| sharpie Sep 20 2005 06:39 AM |
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A back-to-form Carlos Beltran would go a long way to making our offense better.
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| willpie Sep 20 2005 06:49 AM |
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I'm beginning to suspect that we'll get a back-to-form Carlos Beltran as soon as the Mets start playing their home games at Kauffman Stadium and/or Minute Maid Park.
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| Elster88 Sep 20 2005 06:55 AM |
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To be even more pessimistic, maybe we did get back to form Beltran this year, and last year he was overachieving.
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| Edgy DC Sep 20 2005 07:33 AM |
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Nonetheless, we are creatures of reason, and not fatalism or superstition.
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| Frayed Knot Sep 20 2005 07:56 AM |
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Beltran's 4yr/avg ('01-'04):
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| Edgy DC Sep 20 2005 08:09 AM |
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But the thingie is that park factors are one of those things you can think and think about until your brain hurts and still not pin them down. But they're definitiely involved here at some level, and worthwhile for the Mets to hire a young man or woman with a tough brain to look at as they approach their building for the future.
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| smg58 Sep 20 2005 08:13 AM |
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I think somebody did something before we signed Beltran suggesting that we could expect an OPS in the neighborhood of .880. Below what he did in KC and Houston, but at this point we would all be very grateful if he gave us something close to .880 next year.
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| Frayed Knot Sep 20 2005 08:13 AM |
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There's been this notion floating around disgruntled NYM fans (and cackling NYY fans) that Beltran was "never anything other than a .260 hitter" (based on last year's BA) and that this is what we should expect. Clearly not true when you look at the history. Kaufman Stadium in KC (if that's what they're still calling it - I can never remember) was a good hitter's park mainly because it was great for 2Bs & 3Bs (big gaps, funky corners) moreso than for HRs. Never-the-less, they moved the fences back a year or two ago which likely accounted for the recent drop as a hitter's haven.
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| Edgy DC Sep 20 2005 08:27 AM |
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I want those 92 walks back almost as much as I want those 38 homers.
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| Vic Sage Sep 20 2005 08:37 AM |
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a question about "Park Factor"...
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| Elster88 Sep 20 2005 08:39 AM |
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Wow. I assumed it was based only off of the visiting teams' stats, because of Vic's point exactly.
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| Benjamin Grimm Sep 20 2005 08:47 AM |
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That was my assumption, too.
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| Edgy DC Sep 20 2005 08:48 AM |
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Actually, I assumed so also.
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| Frayed Knot Sep 20 2005 08:50 AM |
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Done correctly, they use both the home tem AND visiting team stats and compare them to how those teams did in that park as compared to other stadiums specifically so the home team's strengths and weaknesses can't foul things up.
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| Rotblatt Sep 20 2005 08:50 AM |
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Taking a look at the stats over the past few years, the biggest difference is the sudden drop in power and the sudden regression in plate discipline. Neither looks like they could have been predicted, IMO. Looking at it, it makes me wonder if he's been hiding an injury. He's been subpar right from the start, never posting an OPS better than .827 in any month, and only breaking .800 twice. Nothing conclusive, as far as I could tell, on H/A & L/R splits. Batted Ball Type Generally, line drives lead to extra base hits. If you have good power, fly balls lead to home runs. 2002 21% LD 46% GB 33% FB 2003 21% LD 47% GB 33% FB 2004 15% LD 38% GB 46% FB 2005 20% LD 43% GB 38% FB In this case, 2004 looks like the abberration--like he was trying for HRs that year (and succeeding). 2005 looks pretty normal to me, and as we can see from BAPIP, hits were falling in at around the rate you'd expect given his history. BABIP Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is generally viewed as skill-related. Large fluxuations from career norms are considered to likely be flukes and unsustainable (if good) or indicative of bad luck (if bad). career average: .283 2001 .306 2002 .273 2003 .307 2004 .267 2005 .272 Again, no real trend there. He's actually done better this year than last year, which is reflected in his higher BA (.272 compared to .267). So if when he hits the ball, he's producing a similar type of result (in terms of LD, GB & FB) and they're falling in at the same rate they usually do, why does he suck this year? His power completely dissapeared, and instead of those balls going for doubles, triples & home runs, he's getting singles. ISO(isolated power) 2001 .207 2002 .228 2003 .215 2004 .280 2005 .151 Completely baffling. It makes no sense to me that his power would just drop off like that. Here's a look at the whole package, as measured by EQA (Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning.) 2001 .287 2002 .277 2003 .303 2004 KC .295 2004 HOU .309 2005 .267 (lowest for Beltran since .224 in 2000) 2005 looks like an abberation to me. If he were in his 30's instead of just 28, I might think he's on the decline, but he was trending upwards the past two years. Maybe expecting another .300 EQA season from him next year is too much, but I'd certainly expect him to match or better his career average .277 (which he hit on the nose in 2002, a year he posted a .847 OPS while stealing 35 bases & hitting 29 HR). H/A Splits 2005 Beltran has actually been better at Shea, which is playing as a neutral park (1.001 PF), this year: .775 OPS, .82 BB/K Away: .746, .48 2004 He was downright bad at home .774 OPS, .76 BB/K and amazing away: 1.041, 1.06 Breaking it down by park, he had a .767 OPS at Kauffman (0.910) & a .780 at Minute Maid (1.004). 2003 .915 OPS, 1.12 BB/K at home (1.278 at Kauffman that year, second in the bigs!) .906 OPS, .72 BB/K away 2002 .898 OPS, .55 BB/K at home (1.363, again, second in the bigs) .793 OPS, .51 BB/K away I don't really see a discernable pattern there. He did significantly better at Kauffman in 2002 than he did away, but very similarly H & A in 2003. In 2004, he struggled at home in two different stadiums with two very different park factors but absolutely raked away, and this year, he did a bit better at what has traditionally been a pitcher's park then he had away. R/L splits 2005 .746 OPS v. L .810 v. R 2004 .926 OPS v. L .887 v. R 2003 .898 v. L .941 v. R 2002 .867 v. L .786 v. R No real pattern there that I can see. He's had big splits every year, but he's flipflopped between being better v. lefties than righties--better against lefties twice, and better against righties 3 times. |
| Edgy DC Sep 20 2005 08:58 AM |
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So (and excellent work, by the way), we're left with a few speculative theses.
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| Rotblatt Sep 20 2005 10:02 AM |
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Yup, I think those are our best possible explanations. I'm thinking 1 or 4 is the most likely, since he switched to the NL midseason last year and did quite well, and he's actually flying out less than he did last year.
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| Vic Sage Sep 20 2005 11:56 AM |
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I think he is (3) because he is (4). I don't think (2) is valid, since he'd already made that transition (and made it quite well) last season. (1) might be true, but is entirely speculative.
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| Edgy DC Sep 20 2005 12:13 PM |
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Well (1) is speculative, sure, but not entirely so, as we all saw him pretty badly concussed, albeit 2/3 into the season, for what that's worth.
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| Vic Sage Sep 20 2005 12:15 PM |
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he played better AFTER the concussion, i think, so i don't know that it would explain anything. As for the "NY thing"... yeah, i never bought into that either. i was just throwing chum in the water.
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| Rotblatt Sep 20 2005 12:59 PM |
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Always dangerous, Vic. We like our chum here.
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| MFS62 Sep 20 2005 02:13 PM |
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Blatt, Giambi was sick. Very sick. And his smaple size in 2004 was much smaller, too.
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| Rotblatt Sep 20 2005 02:40 PM |
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True. And it's totally unfair to characterize Giambi's struggles in 2004 as a result of steroid use. But despite Giambi being extraordinarily sick, his drop in slugging STILL wasn't as dramatic as Beltran's. I mean, Beltran's got one of the biggest ISO drop-off I could find (without looking very hard, I'll grant you). Bigger than A-Rod's or Giambi's. Bigger than Sosa's from last year to this year (41%). Thome's dropped 53% this year, but he's been injured and had under 200 AB. So basically, the only people I found with similar drop-offs were either seriously injured or getting old. A-Rod's problem was arguably mental and he seems to have solved it, so that's a good sign, and Giambi's problem was clearly physical and he just as clearly has worked past it, so either way, I think Beltran should rebound. But it'd be nice to be able to chalk this year up to something--physical or mental--one way or the other. Just to set our minds at ease a bit.
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| MFS62 Sep 20 2005 02:43 PM |
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Back to the "chum" thingie.
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