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Our Bullpen
Rotblatt Sep 26 2005 04:28 PM |
Just for a lark, I decided to check out our bullpen stats for the first time in a while.
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Johnny Dickshot Sep 26 2005 05:18 PM |
Rivera A
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Rotblatt Sep 26 2005 09:10 PM |
Pretty good, JD but you got one wrong.
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Rotblatt Sep 26 2005 09:14 PM |
As for the bullpen comment, I agree for the most part that we wound up with the right guys although there's no reason for Bell to only have 5 (or maybe 7--can't remember) innings.
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Nymr83 Sep 26 2005 10:24 PM |
our bullpen is misused at best. their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role. also where are inherited runners? thats one of the most important things...
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Johnny Dickshot Sep 26 2005 10:27 PM |
I think they said Bell's been off recently due to a family health emergency at home, but is back with the team now.
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Frayed Knot Sep 26 2005 11:05 PM |
"their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role."
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Rotblatt Sep 26 2005 11:10 PM |
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Using the inherited runner stat from Baseball Prospectus, blue is above average and orange below average. Black is average. They are listed in descending order of rank. Robo's allowed 5 of 29 to score (10th best ranking in the majors). Padilla's allowed 2 of 17 (34th). Heilman's allowed 8 of 27. Bell's allowed 3 of 17. Santiago allowed 0 of 2. Matthews allowed 0 of 4. Aybar 3 of 10. Zambrano 0 of 0. Heredia 0 of 0. =orange]Hamulak 2 of 6. Looper 4 of 11. DeJean 1 of 4. Graves 6 of 9. Ring 3 of 9. Takatsu 6 of 8. Koo 11 of 24 (second worst in the majors). I assume their ranking takes into account the situation and where the runners are--stranding a runner at third with less than two outs probably counts more than stranding a runner at 1st with 2 outs.
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Rotblatt Sep 26 2005 11:32 PM |
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Um, yes? Imagine if the Yankees used Mariano Rivera for mop-up duty. Even if Rivera never gave up a run, he would almost never have any impact in whether the Yankees won. Now imagine if they used Stanton as their closer. He would cost them far more games in that role than as a LOOGY or mop-up guy. Now, our problem isn't nearly that extreme, but it's still been a problem for us. Less now than before, since Heilman performing mop-up duty--or other low-leverage situations--part of the season was really exhibit A and now he's closing. One could probably argue that Padilla should have been pitching for us a lot sooner (I'm pretty sure I did just that back in the Norfolk thread, as a matter of fact), but once he got here, Willie was pretty good at using him in at least neutral situations as opposed to mop-up (his LEV is 0.97. 0 is average and the higher you go, the bigger the situations he's been placed in.). Unless what you're arguing is that all our relievers are pretty much the same, which is just completely wrong. Despite his mediocre second half, Robo's STILL been one of the best relievers in the league, and Heilman's not far behind him. Padilla has also been pretty fucking good, at least going by ERA & WHIP.
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Frayed Knot Sep 27 2005 12:13 AM |
Not only isn't our situation remotely as extreme as the example, but it's barely relevent. No one - much less "everyone" - is in roles so ridiculously mis-applied.
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 07:59 AM |
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In another thread about a month ago (after he had clearly proved himself to pretty much anyone who bothered to follow him), I plotted out a bunch of his most rececent appearances and about 2 in 10 could even loosely be termed as "high leverage." Take a look at his game log some time and you'll see what I mean. Heilman only about a week ago moved ahead of Padilla on the depth chart, and what had Padilla proved to anyone aside from Oberkfell? Why is Takatsu so high on the depth chart? Why was Graves used in a game last night where we were only 3 runs down? Bullpen management is a clear weakness of WIllie's. The reason why that concerns me--why bullpen management concerns ANYONE--is that it costs us games. If you don't buy that in our case this year, fine--we'll just have to agree to disagree. It's been my theory that our significantly below-average record in games where we score between 1 & 4 runs--and games decided by 1 run--is in large part due to Willie's bullpen management. I might very well be wrong, but it's a theory that I'll try and test out this offseason.
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Frayed Knot Sep 27 2005 09:52 AM |
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As opposed to all those teams who have have GOOD records in those games? And if Heilman had been used where Graves had been yesterday - down 3 runs/middle innings - that's exactly the sort of situation which would register as "low leverage" and set off a new round of complaints. But now Graves being used there is an example of "mis-management"? My point is not that you can't find individual examples of where you'd make a different call, only that I think it's getting to the point where we're looking pretty hard to find ammo and exaggerating the impact that it's had. I mean Takatsu's pitched all of 5 innings fer crissakes, it's not like using him in a different 5 innings would have changed things.
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 10:05 AM |
Graves has not pitched in five freaking weeks, then finally comes in down three runs in the middle innings on September 26th (actually the 27th at that point I think) with the team ten games out. Let's not make too much of his alleged misuse.
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 10:29 AM |
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Confusing arising. Why is Padilla lower ranked here than Hernandez?
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 12:35 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 27 2005 12:40 PM |
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Yes. I did this work in another thread and we're significantly worse than the average team in those situations. The average team would have won between 5 and 7 more games than we did, given the number of times we scored between 1 & 4 runs.
Yes. Heilman should not have been used. But neither should have Graves (probably the worst reliever still on a MLB roster, at this point), because it's not nearly low-leverage enough for him. We still had a chance at winning that game, which is why we should have used pretty much anyone else on our roster (aside from Robo, Heilman and probably Padilla). He shouldn't be used at all. Ever.
Did you WATCH the games where we used Takatsu? Games where Takatsu did his job in blue. Red where he hurt us. yesterday Mets down 4-2, bottom of seventh, 2 outs. Takatsu gives up home run. We end up winning, but Takatsu made it that much more difficult. 9/21 Mets tied, 3-3, top of the 8th, 2 outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. Takatsu gives up the go-ahead run. We end up winning, but, again, he makes it more difficult. 9/17 Mets down 5-4, top of 7th. Gives up a HR, gets two outs, then loads the bases before giving way to Padilla, who gets the final out. We ended up losing, 7-4. =blue]9/15 Mets up, 5-4, top of 6th. Takatsu sets em down 1-2-3. We lose, 5-6. 9/10 Mets down, 4-1, bottom of 6th. Takatsu gets one out, then allows two batters to reach. Hamulak relieved and bailed him out with a DP. We lose, 4-2 9/7 Mets up, 3-2, bottom of 10th. Takatsu comes on with no outs and the bases loaded. Gets two outs, then allows a single by Langerhans, scoring the go-ahead runs. We lose, 4-3. =blue]9/6 Mets down 3-1, bottom of 8th. Takatsu allows a single but that's it. We lose, 3-1. 9/3 Mets up, 4-2, bottom 7th, bases loaded, 2 outs. Cabrera doubles in go-ahead runs, IBB Delgado, then strikes out Encarnacion. We lose, 5-4. It's not really fair to use 9/7 against him, but if we needed a glaring example of how Willie can't manage a bullpen to save his life, that's a pretty fucking good one. Anyway, that's 2 games Takatsu has cost us from his 5 innings. He was solid in two losing efforts, but has never helped us win one (unless you call only allowing 1 run in part of an inning help). On edit: My real problem is that this scenario was played out throughout the season with different pitchers playing the part of Takatsu. We used pitchers in critical situations when they had no real business being there, when we had better options available.
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 12:37 PM |
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I'm assuming it's because Hernandez stranded runners in more difficult situations--fewer outs, runner on third instead of 1st, etc.
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 01:16 PM |
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Part of managing a team is trying to find spots to take advantage of players doing well and providing opportunities at redemption for players doing poorly. Now, another part of the game is figuring who is worthy of a shot at redemption and who isn't. But that's your issue with Graves, not how he's used, but that he's used. That's not really on Randolph, but on the entire braintrust. Personally, I don't care that much about the last guy in the bullpen. He's always going to be a project.
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 01:37 PM |
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Yeah, I guess that's my issue. But if I'm Willie, I don't use him, even if he's on the team. And I especially wouldn't use him down only 3 runs. Or with any kind of a lead. And our last guy doesn't HAVE to be as big a project as Graves is. How about Santiago? Or one of the other AAA boys? Anyway, I see your point, but Graves really feels like a waste of time to me. Unless, of course, Peterson has intentionally fucked up Graves' mechanics in some easily correctable manner so that Graves would be crappy as hell this season, which will allow us to sign him in 2006 to a piddly little deal, whereupon Peterson will correct Graves' mechanics and we'll have ourselves a cheap closer. But that seems a little far-fetched to me.
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 01:49 PM |
Well, all failing projects feel like a waste of time. But you do them anyway for the sake of the benefit of the few that succeed.
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Frayed Knot Sep 27 2005 03:12 PM |
After a while this whole bullpen critique starts to boil down to:
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Vic Sage Sep 27 2005 03:18 PM |
but ... but ... but... LF!
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 03:51 PM |
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Substitute "effective" for "guys I like" and "ineffective" for "guys I don't like" and I think you've got it, Frayed. It's not so difficult after all, is it?
So I suggest that we use our good relievers in situations where they can help, bad relievers in situations where they can't hurt and getting rid of our very worst reliever, and you sum it up as scapegoating? What am I missing here? And Norrin, why not look at what I've written and tell me where I'm wrong AND THEN make cutesy comments? It kind of doesn't work unless you at least try to discredit me first.
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Vic Sage Sep 27 2005 05:56 PM |
my time is so short these days, i just figured i would cut to the chase and say something obnoxious right away, without all the preliminary groundwork that i'd normally try to establish.
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 10:00 PM |
High enough leverage for Heilman here, I think.
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Frayed Knot Sep 27 2005 10:21 PM |
"What am I missing here?"
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 10:23 PM |
That's what I hate about Omar. He really disrespects the meaning of Christmas.
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 10:27 PM |
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I don't think Graves has had much of an impact at all, actually. Willie HAS used him pretty much only in blow-outs. It just offends me that he's still on our team since he's been so very bad. Takatsu hasn't been around enough to have a huge impact, although he probably has cost us maybe a game or so, which is pretty impressive in just 5 innings. Willie, on the other hand, has been around plenty long enough to have an impact, and I think his choices in who to pitch when have cost us. My intent was to use Heilman, Bell ,Takatsu, DeJean, Aybar, etc., as examples of Willie's inability to use pitchers appropriately rather than to blame any one of them on costing us our season. I seem to be pissing in the wind here, though, so I'll just drop it.
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Edgy DC Sep 27 2005 10:34 PM |
Some ez-era poster (nymr, was that you?), when Heilman first got a start, railed against the Mets because Heilman had previously proved that sucks.
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Rotblatt Sep 27 2005 10:47 PM |
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I don't think it's unrealistic to ask your manager to recognize who his best relief pitchers are and use them as much as possible in high-leverage situations. I think that Willie has been unable to do this. I think that has cost us games. As for it being unrealistic that a manager could primarily use just 2 pitchers in high-leverage situations all season long, I completely disagree. Looper (~1.7 LEV) & Hernandez (~1.6 LEV) got the majority of high-leverage innings all season long. Without looking at the Yankees' stats, I can pretty much guarantee that Gordon & Rivera got most of their high-leverage situations as well. All I'm saying is that I'd like to see our manager treat his best pitchers like they're his best pitchers and to use his worst pitchers only when he has to. And just to make myself clear, I think our pen, as a whole, is pretty decent. Loop's a great ROOGY, Koo & Ishii have great splits against lefties, Takatsu has done well when starting off innings, Bell can get K's when he needs them, Zambrano was pretty impressive overall the few appearances he got, and Padilla, Robo & Heilman have been great across the board. The only person I think is worthless is Graves.
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Johnny Dickshot Sep 27 2005 11:33 PM |
A general point: I'm not sure if it's fair, necessarily, to view a pitcher's leverage figures in concert with his performance.
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Edgy DC Sep 28 2005 09:26 AM |
I think this argument all boils down to Heilman. Randolph should have recognized his improved abilities faster, and upgraded his role sooner --- perhaps a la McDowell 1985.
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MFS62 Sep 28 2005 09:47 AM |
This is one of those threads that makes this place really fun; stats, opinion, challenge, defense, all with some logic thrown in and no personal attacks.
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Johnny Dickshot Sep 28 2005 10:26 AM |
As noted earlier, Bell had some family issues (he has a daughter with Down's syndrome, tho it wasn;t said what was the issue) and he'd left the team for a period. He was warming last night.
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metirish Sep 29 2005 10:20 AM |
Looper to have surgery Monday, he's got a chip in his shoulder.
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Frayed Knot Sep 29 2005 10:28 AM |
Yeah, supposedly it's something that's been bugging him since the end of last year but rest rather than cutting was recommended. Speculation will shirley follow about whether it was the cause of his off-year.
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metirish Sep 29 2005 10:34 AM |
His control problems are being blamed on this injury...so when did Loop last appear in a game?, probably his last as a Met
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