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Olney on Bay and Mets

metsguyinmichigan Dec 30 2009 08:40 AM

I'm not an ESPN Insider, but here's the tease from Olney's column on the Mets... What Bay Means to Mets The presumption had been among the Mets' rivals in the National League East, even before the signing of Jason Bay, that New York was bound to be much-improved in 2010. Nationals Manager Jim Riggleman made that unsolicited point chatting in the lobby at the winter meetings, and separately, so did folks from the Phillies and Marlins and Braves. The Mets have a core of players who are capable of being great -- Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Johan Santana. "I think they can't help but be the most improved team in the division," said an assistant GM, "because they're bound to have better luck with injuries."

Edgy DC Dec 30 2009 08:49 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

Seems pretty obvious, though it's given little comfort to Met fans.

attgig Dec 30 2009 09:24 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

I'm hating the lineup order. 2&8 should be swapped, but knowing what manuel did last year... it may happen... *shudder* What Bay Means to Mets The presumption had been among the Mets' rivals in the National League East, even before the signing of Jason Bay, that New York was bound to be much-improved in 2010. Nationals Manager Jim Riggleman made that unsolicited point chatting in the lobby at the winter meetings, and separately, so did folks from the Phillies and Marlins and Braves. The Mets have a core of players who are capable of being great -- Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Johan Santana. "I think they can't help but be the most improved team in the division," said an assistant GM, "because they're bound to have better luck with injuries." Now they add Jason Bay and seem to be moving toward a deal with Bengie Molina, which means that their lineup in 2010 could look something like this: SS Reyes 1B Daniel Murphy 3B Wright CF Beltran LF Bay RF Jeff Francoeur C Bengie Molina 2B Luis Castillo I wrote something here a couple of weeks ago about how rival evaluators believed that Bay's defensive issues were exacerbated by his seeming discomfort in gauging balls hit close to the Green Monster at Fenway Park. Every evaluator I communicated with believed he would be better than advertised in left field in Citi Field, where judging whether a fly ball will scrape the wall isn't an issue. "And besides, who did they have there last year?" asked one evaluator rhetorically. "Carl Crawford? No, they had Gary Sheffield. Is he going to be any worse than Gary Sheffield?" No, Bay will be at least as good. Murphy -- who seemed to find his sea legs at the plate in the second half of the season -- appears to have a pretty good chance to develop into a nice first baseman. Defense doesn't figure to be the Mets' problem next season, if the regulars stay healthy. And the offense is bound to be improved, considering that this team finished 25th in runs scored in the injury-plagued 2009. But a gaping Citi Field-size hole remains in the rotation behind Johan Santana, and there aren't a lot of risk-free options on the free agent market. Ben Sheets will start throwing for teams sometime in the next couple of weeks and he could be good, but he didn't pitch at all in 2009. Joel Pineiro is the best free agent pitcher on the market, and it figures that the Mets will make him an offer. The question they must address internally has been asked throughout front offices in the majors: Is Pineiro's dramatically improved ground ball ratio in 2009 a sign that he has turned the corner and evolved, with his electric fastball, from a subpar starter into someone who can be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter? The Mets need to roll the dice and find out, because while the signing of Bay brings some comfort to the team's fan base in December, the team won't be relevant in mid-September without another frontline starting pitcher. The signing of Bay might quiet some of their unhappy fans, writes David Waldstein. The Mets still need arms, writes John Harper. Joel Sherman has a feeling that the Mets will be trying to get out of this deal soon. He still needs to pass a physical, writes Mike Puma. The Mets need to do more, writes Ken Davidoff. The Mets still have pieces missing, writes Bob Klapisch. Bay's new team is a nightmare, writes Steve Buckley.

Edgy DC Dec 30 2009 09:29 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

I don't worry much about Olney setting our lineup order.

MFS62 Dec 30 2009 09:32 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

[quote="attgig"] What Bay Means to Mets The signing of Bay might quiet some of their unhappy fans, writes David Waldstein. The Mets still need arms, writes John Harper. Joel Sherman has a feeling that the Mets will be trying to get out of this deal soon. He still needs to pass a physical, writes Mike Puma. The Mets need to do more, writes Ken Davidoff. The Mets still have pieces missing, writes Bob Klapisch. Bay's new team is a nightmare, writes Steve Buckley.

We could have predicted what the first writers would say (especially Sherman). And Puma is "reporting" what has been made public. But who the heck is Steve Buckley?

Later

metsguyinmichigan Dec 30 2009 09:35 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

"The Mets still need arms, writes John Harper." Unless Omar is out there saying, "We're done improving the club. See you in St. Lucie" this is a dumb column for Harper to write. Realizing that its Harper and all....

attgig Dec 30 2009 09:41 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

oops. some more mets talk in that article: Some Shelling Out of the Big Bucks Mark Simon of ESPN Research, whose favorite all-time player is probably either Ed Kranepool, George Theodore, Dave Mlicki or David Murphy, has some perspective on the Mets' shelling out a big contract: Mets Biggest Investments in Free Agency Since 1990 1991-92 Offseason Bobby Bonilla, 5 years, $29 million The Mets made a big show of signing Bobby Bonilla to the biggest contract of the offseason, for five years and $29 million. This came a year after the loss of Darryl Strawberry to free agency and the Mets were rather desperate for a bat. They had tried the speed route in free agency the previous offseason, but Vince Coleman's deal (4 years, $11.95 million) started off badly due to his injuries and ineffectiveness. Short-term effect: Bonilla's OPS dropped from .883 to .779 in his first season with the Mets, and his surly attitude didn't win him many fans in his first season with the Mets. New York was still in the NL East race entering August but had a horrible final two months, and finished 72-90. Long-term effect: The performance of the 1993 team, which finished 59-103, was a disaster both on and off the field, and it took the Mets until 1997 to fully recover. Bonilla still put up decent enough stats to enable the Mets to dispatch him to Baltimore. Moreso, the long-term implications were that the Bonilla signing scared the Mets off from signing big-money free agents from other teams. Though they would make trades for major stars and re-sign their own players (Mike Piazza), the team did not make an offseason signing that rated top-three in money committed for 11 years. 2002-03 Offseason Tom Glavine, 3 years, $35 million Cliff Floyd, 4 years, 26 million Eager to disarm the perennial division champion Atlanta Braves, the Mets made Tom Glavine the second-biggest free agent signing of the offseason, giving him three years and $35 million. They also inked Cliff Floyd to a four-year, $26 million deal, tied for the third-largest free agent contract that offseason. Short-term effect: Glavine's first start as a Met was a 15-2 loss to the Cubs on Opening Day, and that set the tone for a horrendous season, in which he went 9-14 with a 4.52 ERA. Floyd hit .290 with 18 home runs, but was hobbled by injuries and only made it through 108 games. The Mets won 66 games in 2003 and finished fifth in the NL East. Long-term effect: Glavine slowly got better, winning 11 games in 2004, 13 in 2005, and 15 in his option year, 2006. But his last start as a Met, after struggles down the stretch in 2007, left a bitter memory, as Glavine was booed off the mound after getting knocked out in the first inning of a final-game loss to the Marlins. Floyd's injuries plagued him throughout his Mets tenure, as he only played more than 113 games once in the four years. When healthy, he was a dangerous hitter, but he was significantly missed when out of the lineup. 2004-05 Offseason Carlos Beltran, 7 years, $119 million (plus Pedro Martinez) With a new general manager at the helm, the Mets made Carlos Beltran the prize of the free agent class with a seven-year, $119 million contract, and gave Pedro Martinez the fifth-biggest contract, at four years for $53 million. Short-term effect: The Mets went from 71 wins to 83 wins and hung in contention through most of 2005. That was in spite of Beltran's struggles adjusting to New York, which included a nasty collision with Mike Cameron in the outfield. He hit just .266 with 16 home runs and 78 RBI, a sharp drop from his 38 HR/104 RBI season and monstrous postseason in 2004. Martinez had his best year as a Met in his first year with the team, going 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA, and was credited by Beltran as being the primary reason he signed with the Mets. Long-term effect: Beltran was one of the keys to the Mets success from 2006 to 2008, which included a division title, and two seasons in which the team wasn't eliminated until the final game. In that span, he averaged 34 home runs and 113 RBI. Martinez's injuries left the Mets shorthanded on the mound in a lot of key spots over the next three years. Though immensely popular with the fan base, Martinez only made 48 starts from 2006 to 2008, and was 17-15 with a 4.74 ERA. The Elias Sports Bureau has its own player rating, in which each plate appearance is evaluated on the game situation before and after the PA. The difference in the team's chance to win the game before and after is attributed to the batter/pitcher involved in the PA. The differences are accumulated over the course of the season, in the context of game situations and stadium effects. A rating is calculated on a percentile scale, relative to a typical major league "replacement player." The win probabilities are based on a computer simulation over several hundred million innings for all parks done by the noted statistician, Jeff Sagarin. By Elias's system for evaluating hitters, Jason Bay rated eighth in baseball, and first in the American League in 2009 How will Bay fare in Citi Field? Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Research have four points on this: 1. Based on data from HitTracker Online, a website that tracked every home run hit in 2009, Bay's home runs averaged a "standard distance" of 389.9 feet, which was tied for 82nd among the 99 players with at least 18 HR. 2. Based on data from HitTracker, only 17 of his 36 homers would have been home runs in all 30 ballparks. 3. HitTracker studied fly balls hit at Citi Field throughout the 2009 season and concluded that Citi Field took away a lot of potential home runs. There were 64 fly balls that weren't home runs at Citi Field that would have been home runs at Shea Stadium (there were also four balls that were home runs at Citi Field, that wouldn't have been home runs at Shea Stadium). 4. In 2009, Bay hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park. By HitTracker's calculations, 7 of those would not have made it out of Citi Field, or 47 percent. A full review of HitTracker data from 2006 to 2008 leads to a projection in which Bay would hit 36 percent fewer home runs at Citi Field in 2010, and that his home run total should drop 16 percent overall. Translation: He'd be projected to hit 10 HR at home and 30 HR overall in 2010.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 30 2009 10:44 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

How will Bay fare in Citi Field? Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Research have four points on this: 1. Based on data from HitTracker Online, a website that tracked every home run hit in 2009, Bay's home runs averaged a "standard distance" of 389.9 feet, which was tied for 82nd among the 99 players with at least 18 HR. 2. Based on data from HitTracker, only 17 of his 36 homers would have been home runs in all 30 ballparks. 3. HitTracker studied fly balls hit at Citi Field throughout the 2009 season and concluded that Citi Field took away a lot of potential home runs. There were 64 fly balls that weren't home runs at Citi Field that would have been home runs at Shea Stadium (there were also four balls that were home runs at Citi Field, that wouldn't have been home runs at Shea Stadium). 4. In 2009, Bay hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park. By HitTracker's calculations, 7 of those would not have made it out of Citi Field, or 47 percent. A full review of HitTracker data from 2006 to 2008 leads to a projection in which Bay would hit 36 percent fewer home runs at Citi Field in 2010, and that his home run total should drop 16 percent overall. Translation: He'd be projected to hit 10 HR at home and 30 HR overall in 2010. I find this data to be very persuasive. "Hit tracker" HR data --analyzing each home run individually for distance, speed and trajectory-- will yield a more accurate understanding of a stadium's effect on home runs than by simply comparing the total number of HR's hit at home by the home team and its opponents as compared to road HR's. I've been discounting the fact that both the Mets and their opponents have hit more home runs at Citi Field last season than on the road, and therefore, am unwilling to conclude that Citi Field increases the number of HR's hit as compared to a neutral park. As a result, I've been ignoring many of the Citi Field HR rankings that have been generated by baseball statistical sites in this off season. To me, it's illogical to conclude that CF inreases HR's, given the larger fair ball area as compared to Shea, and the significantly taller outfield fences. I realize that there might be other factors to compensate for the larger CF dimensions, such as wind patterns, better lighting, architecture, etc, but remain unconvinced that those conditions exist to the point that they might nullify the new stadium's vast outfield. I expect that a larger sample size (at least three seasons worth of data) will confirm that Citi Field is not a HR park.

MFS62 Dec 30 2009 10:57 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

I wonder if they took into account the home runs that travelled 315 - 379 feet at Fenway (LF iline to left center) that were stopped by the seats above the high wall (maybe another 40 feet). I'm thinkin' that may have shortened the distances they used. Also- what about the line drives that hit high off the wall that might have gone out in a deeper park with shorter walls? Just wonderin'. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Later

smg58 Dec 30 2009 11:07 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

I buy the argument that fly balls carry further in the more enclosed CitiField than they did in Shea, where the prevailing winds blew in from center and from left. I wouldn't be too quick to discount the home/road splits from last year, as they're the only hard data we have to go with so far. There's simply no evidence that opposing teams had any difficulty hitting home runs in Citi last year, and lots of evidence that the Mets had problems hitting home runs everywhere. I'll believe that Citi limits home runs when evidence to that effect emerges, but I don't share BML's confidence that it will.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 30 2009 11:13 AM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

[quote="smg58"]I buy the argument that fly balls carry further in the more enclosed CitiField than they did in Shea, where the prevailing winds blew in from center and from left.

You're definitely right about the Shea wind, especially about the strong wind blowing in from LF. Shea was tougher on right-handed hitters than on left-handed hitters for HR's; although the stadium dimensions were symetrical, the architecture wasn't.

[quote="smg58"] I wouldn't be too quick to discount the home/road splits from last year, as they're the only hard data we have to go with so far.

It's the only hard data readily available to us, but not the only hard data.

seawolf17 Dec 30 2009 12:10 PM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

[quote="batmagadanleadoff":2zrhefjz]Shea was tougher on right-handed hitters than on left-handed hitters for HR's; although the stadium dimensions were symetrical, the architecture wasn't.[/quote:2zrhefjz] Remember when Mike Piazza would just mash a pitch into the bleachers, though? A thing of beauty.

attgig Dec 30 2009 12:38 PM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

[quote="seawolf17":2wuke156][quote="batmagadanleadoff":2wuke156]Shea was tougher on right-handed hitters than on left-handed hitters for HR's; although the stadium dimensions were symetrical, the architecture wasn't.[/quote:2wuke156] Remember when Mike Piazza would just mash a pitch into the bleachers, though? A thing of beauty.[/quote:2wuke156] and then he would go to the locker room and pop the zits on his back.....

Swan Swan H Dec 30 2009 12:40 PM Re: Olney on Bay and Mets

[quote="attgig":p2ex2r5q][quote="seawolf17":p2ex2r5q][quote="batmagadanleadoff":p2ex2r5q]Shea was tougher on right-handed hitters than on left-handed hitters for HR's; although the stadium dimensions were symetrical, the architecture wasn't.[/quote:p2ex2r5q] Remember when Mike Piazza would just mash a pitch into the bleachers, though? A thing of beauty.[/quote:p2ex2r5q] and then he would go to the locker room and pop the zits on his back.....[/quote:p2ex2r5q] No, he'd have Sam Champion do it for him.