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this means WAR

Vic Sage Jan 02 2010 01:21 PM

How good is Wins Above Replacement as an evaluative stat? Where can i find 2009 WAR stats?

RealityChuck Jan 02 2010 01:27 PM Re: this means WAR

Do you mean evaluating past seasons, or trying to get an idea how a player will perform in 2010? If it's the former, it's a pretty solid statistic. If the latter, it has no predictive value for any given player than any other statistic about a player's past performance. A player with a high one last year may have a high one next year -- or he may not. As the stockbrokers are required to say, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Edgy DC Jan 02 2010 01:51 PM Re: this means WAR

You can find them at Fangraphs. The bottom of each player's page has a table for his value. Take Angel Pagan. They rate him at 9.8 runs above average offensively, 5.8 runs above average defensively, and 0.3 runs below positionally. That adds up to 2.8 WAR. (I don't know why they should necessarily break their positional value advantage/disadvantage into two seperate columns, but they do.) Is it more predictive than other measurements. I guess that depends in part on whether you're speaking as a GM or as a fantasy baseball league participant. I like it a lot, but I think their standard on what a replacement player is higher than other formulas that try and measure a player against "replacements." That matters because it makes a whole bunch of players that are marginally useful by other measures to appear useful not at all to Fangraphs. Their defensive numbers also vary wildly from year to year.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 02 2010 02:00 PM Re: this means WAR

[quote="Edgy DC":jueeajln]Their defensive numbers also vary wildly from year to year.[/quote:jueeajln] And since UZR is a proprietary stat, unfortunately, we can't easily tell whence the variance comes. That said, it's as good a one-stop-shopping stat as anything currently out there... and if something smells funny on the yearly defensive numbers, you can simply check 'em against previous years for the same player or other defensive metrics (like John Dewan's stuff or the Tom Tango fan ratings).