Master Index of Archived Threads


Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 06 2010 10:09 AM

[quote="John Cougar Lunchbucket":19n8vqsh] To me Omar's worst moment was in '08, when the managerial seams split and he did nothing to improve the team at the trade deadline tother than cross fingers on a few rejects while the bullpen crumbled and the team coughed up another lead.[/quote:19n8vqsh] Between this and our breakdown of wintry '06-'07, it just hit me-- there have been a LOT more Omar facepalm-inducing moments than even the most hard-bitten Minaya-hater can come up with by his lonesome. Why not take those remembrances outside of the optimistic present-- where Omar's acquitted himself pretty well for a presumed-Dead-Man-Walking, and we continue to root for measured progress-- and exorcise the demons in a topic of their own? So, yeah... Omar's worst moment(s), in your opinion? I'll start. 3) Bernazard firing: The public-relations equivalent of the Castillo drop. 2) Midseason '08: Rome burns again. Omar fires Willie too late, and fiddles with himself at the deadline. 1) Winter '06-'07: A sneaky-bad one. While it was happening, it seemed like a few of these were mildly bad on their face... but the sum total of all those moves? It's kind of staggering. (MY favorite part of Edge's list in the other thread-- perhaps to be reposted here?-- is that at least three of us have come up with other bad-to-terrible moves in about 30 minutes since he ran through his compendium. I'm sure there are others in there, too... it's like a wizard's bag of FAIL.)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 06 2010 10:36 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I can't get through complaining about Omar without mentioning 1. Wagner 2. Rodriguez Not that these guys were/are necessarily bad or even worse than the theoretical replacements; just that it showed so little imagination when it came to tackling the bullpen and most likely make $$ that would be better spent on outfielders who could hit, or a real catcher or development or something. It just bothers me in a matter of taste.

smg58 Jan 06 2010 11:26 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

It's tough to isolate one or two things with Omar, because the big deals he's generally handled/avoided properly. Does anybody wish, at this point, that the Mets had outbid the Cubs for Soriano or the Giants for Zito, or that we had landed Manny last year? He's been brutal filling out the back of the roster, though, and at times he's badly overpaid to hold on to replaceable parts. 1. 3 years and $36M for Ollie Perez. 2. 4 years and $25M for Luis Castillo. I could take any of the 06-07 offseason moves that ultimately derailed two playoff drives. Heath Bell proved to be the biggest backfire, but for facepalm-inducing moments I'm going for this one: 3. Allowing Darren Oliver to make less money from the Angels over the past three seasons (in two separate contracts) than Scott Schoeneweis, who was vastly inferior at the time and did nothing to elevate his status.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 06 2010 11:43 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

As much fun as 2005 was, you could make a very strong argument-- I don't have the heart-- that the Petey signing could slot in between Ollie and Castillo on that FA-signing list. Also: -- Should delayed-DL placement/playing shorthanded for the equivalent of something like 40-50 days over the last 4 years count as one big one, or a bunch of little ones? -- Jesus Flores being left unprotected for the Rule V is a hidden "gem" (with extra points for not having anything to do with money or missteps in player-evaluation).

smg58 Jan 06 2010 11:53 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"]As much fun as 2005 was, you could make a very strong argument-- I don't have the heart-- that the Petey signing could slot in between Ollie and Castillo on that FA-signing list.

It was a net backfire but I'd have done it then and, if I had to do it over again, I'd quite likely still do it.

-- Jesus Flores being left unprotected for the Rule V is a hidden "gem" (with extra points for not having anything to do with money or missteps in player-evaluation).

Forgot about that one. I'm not sure it had nothing to do with player evaluation -- if they liked him enough, they'd have found a spot on the 40.

duan Jan 07 2010 05:28 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

i'm willing to give Omar a partial pass on the DL thing, people do it all the time (and other people are far too frisky at putting a guy on the 15 day to end up losing him for 13 days unnecessarily) and to some degree to me it speaks of the problem in the GM/Field Manager structure rather then of the actual GM. Jesus was bad. I'm ok with Luis Castillo signing believe it or not - it was probably a year too many and a million a year too much, but if he gives us 3 years of last year to go with the previous debacle we'll have got our value. We were paying a premium for perceived consistency and if you look at Castillo, he's generally been a good 2bman, while occassionally having a crap year. Ollie was a bad bad deal but it doesn't look a lot worse then the one Atlanta handed Derek Lowe right now does it? Looking the the free agent pitcher class that year in general it was pretty horrible below CC. In fairness to Marty Noble he argued Randy Wolf loudly and early - and I'm pretty sure lunchbucket agreed with him, don't know about the rest of us. I

Edgy DC Jan 07 2010 07:33 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I'm not writing Ollie's contract off. Not after a partial season and a in injury. It's amazing how willing the columnists are to hang him for that when they've clamoured for the likes of Lowe, Barry Zito, and Carlos Silva. Enough already, the job is fraught with peril.

duan Jan 07 2010 08:42 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

it'll be HARD for him to be worth 18 million a season for 2 years, and seeing as he was actually worthless last year our damage is unlikely to be low. I think the problem with Perez is that he's so potentially brilliant that you can't help but WANT TO BE THE ONE THAT GETS THE GOOD ONE and forget how bad he is when he's bad. Could be wrong, but I don't get the impression that he's the sharpest tool in the box, I some how think that and the inconsistency are in some way related.

Edgy DC Jan 07 2010 09:08 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I'm not looking for him to get three years of value out of the next two. I'd be happy with one year out of the next one. Virtually all pitchers are inconsistent and enigmatic. It's just that the ones our team has --- and the ones our team pays well --- drive us crazy.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 07 2010 09:18 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Ollie's problem was allowing himself to get out of shape over the offseason, which may have contributed to his health issues. But having dealt with tendonitis for most of 2009 myself, I can testify what a bitch it is: Slow to heal, and only compromises you physically enough to prevent peak performance -- not performing itself. I think with good medical care and a better attitude, he can be/ought to be good again.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 07 2010 09:46 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I hope so. Anything less is unacceptable and will INFURIATE me.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 07 2010 10:07 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="Benjamin Grimm":2ma4vx2p]I hope so. Anything less is unacceptable and will INFURIATE me.[/quote:2ma4vx2p] Hee. Even if you wanted to make the Ollie deal-- and, in mid-winter 2008-09, I'm not sure I sign him-- it seems like he was being paid for what he MIGHT put up, rather than for what his track record (checkered, with performance spikes in 2004 and 2007) might dictate. If you just scratched the surface of his 2007 and 2008 numbers, you could find PLENTY of evidence that his ERAs were highly luck-dependent (unsustainably-high strand rates, climbing walk rates, etc.). If you're signing him there, you HOPE he pitches like a 12-million-dollar pitcher... you don't pay him like one until he's earned it (and is likely to continue doing so). The way it's turned it out seems to have been disturbingly predictable.

PatchyFogg Jan 07 2010 10:08 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Wasn't Flores left unprotected in order to protect the 800-year-old Julio Franco?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 07 2010 10:38 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Among many uncoveted others, yes. At the time, the team was starting a 36-year-old catcher, and backing him up with a bunch of other thirtysomethings. Do you put exercising Moises' 2008 option anywhere on this continuum, or is that unfair? And what about the Keppinger trade?

Edgy DC Jan 07 2010 10:44 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

As long as you give him credit for choices that weren't so impressive on face value, but have worked out, it's fine to demerit him for choices that seemed correct enough at face value, but didn't work out.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 07 2010 10:52 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="Edgy DC"]As long as you give him credit for choices that weren't so impressive on face value, but have worked out, it's fine to demerit him for choices that seemed correct enough at face value, but didn't work out.

I'd say that the Moises dealie seemed shaky at the time... there weren't many real FA options (Bonds aside) but counting on 120 games out of him on a contender at that time was dicey at best.

Edgy DC Jan 07 2010 11:01 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Then there's no need to pause as you fairly demerit him.

duan Jan 07 2010 11:26 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr":1un9l3y2]Among many uncoveted others, yes. At the time, the team was starting a 36-year-old catcher, and backing him up with a bunch of other thirtysomethings. Do you put exercising Moises' 2008 option anywhere on this continuum, or is that unfair? And what about the Keppinger trade?[/quote:1un9l3y2] exercising Moises' option was a balanced risk - I'm totally ok with it. Jeff Keppinger had a good 234 at bats. in 2008 & 2009 he was circa replacement level.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 09:06 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="duan":3n9jze10][quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr":3n9jze10]Among many uncoveted others, yes. At the time, the team was starting a 36-year-old catcher, and backing him up with a bunch of other thirtysomethings. Do you put exercising Moises' 2008 option anywhere on this continuum, or is that unfair? And what about the Keppinger trade?[/quote:3n9jze10] exercising Moises' option was a balanced risk - I'm totally ok with it. Jeff Keppinger had a good 234 at bats. in 2008 & 2009 he was circa replacement level.[/quote:3n9jze10] He still plays a decent middle-infield, walks more than he strikes out, and brings more power to the table (.390 slg, but still) than most MI. I think I'd rather have him on the bench than another guy the team currently has signed for 1-2 years (dependent on whether he's a vest man). Which brings me to another one in the Cora signing, Part II. We'll see how it works out, but, as I've said ad nauseum, it seems a terrible-at-worst/quizzical-at-best signing on its face.

duan Jan 08 2010 09:33 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

2008 OPS: .657 2009 OPS: .707 last season he mainly played 3rd, and in 08 when played SS for most of a season he was 11 runs below average by baseball prospectus' metrics and 14 runs below average by fangraphs. He's the kinda guy that if he gets hot for you it's great but for fucks sake don't think he's any better then a dozen or so dudes that are going to pass through waivers.

duan Jan 08 2010 09:38 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

don't get me wrong, btw, I'm not saying he's a terrible player, or that Alex Cora is a million miles better then him, BUT just that acquiring Reuben Gotay for him was a plausible decision.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 09:40 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I'd say that one was less "bad" than "apparently pointless."

Edgy DC Jan 08 2010 09:59 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Many deals don't work out are highly plausible. Many that do are less so. But I thought we were going for a bottom line of how they actually played out, rather than their credibility at the time.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 10:50 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I guess I could go either way... but result CAN'T be everything, right? It's way too luck-dependent, and I give him a lot less "credit" for a move's badness if it's reasonable-to-good in concept and works out going pear-shaped in a hurry. I mean, if Keith Hernandez dies in a freak-accident car crash just after 1983, the trade doesn't look as good, does it?

Edgy DC Jan 08 2010 11:00 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Why not? We're looking at five years worth of data. If the luck doesn't even out --- much like lineouts and dinky singles --- after five years, it's never going to. Else we're just stuck with more opinions, compelling as they may be.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2010 11:38 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 08 2010 11:46 AM

The luck won't necessarily even out over five years time because it's the number of trades/moves that make up the sample size, not the amount of time over which they occur. OE -- On the other hand, if the sample size is too small for whatever luck there is to even out, then one can also say that Minaya's record is too small to be accurately judged. What say we stipulate to ignore the luck factor other than for unanticipated injuries for the purposes of this thread? After all, there's always an element of the unknown in these trades/moves - the GM is essentially trying to predict the future.

Edgy DC Jan 08 2010 11:45 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I say we work with results results results. How do we otherwise decide what's luck, what's foresight? Luck, says the man who pretty much invented general managing, is the residue of design.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2010 11:47 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="Edgy DC":1ekiqkyt]I say we work with results results results. How do we otherwise decide what's luck, what's foresight? Luck, says the man who pretty much invented general managing, is the residue of design.[/quote:1ekiqkyt] I agree(d). See my edit.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 11:52 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I suppose you're right-- if he traded Beltran for a pile of magic beans, and that bean plant grew several Beltran-like, ML-ready beanmen just starting their arb clocks, we'd probably consider that a big net positive, y'know? (Did I mention I had hash brownies for lunch? Also, have you ever wondered what your tongue tastes like?) I'd still probably give extra "credit" to those moves which seemed pointless-to-insane at the time.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2010 11:58 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr":3c0hxmys]I'd still probably give extra "credit" to those moves which seemed pointless-to-insane at the time.[/quote:3c0hxmys] I'm assuming that you meant "negative extra credit" when you wrote "extra credit". And based on my assumption, if those seemingly pointlessly acquired players then developed good value, you might be discounting that Minaya knew or saw something that you didn't.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 12:11 PM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="batmagadanleadoff":1wzqjdmc][quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr":1wzqjdmc]I'd still probably give extra "credit" to those moves which seemed pointless-to-insane at the time.[/quote:1wzqjdmc] I'm assuming that you meant "negative extra credit" when you wrote "extra credit". And based on my assumption, if those seemingly pointlessly acquired players then developed good value, you might be discounting that Minaya knew or saw something that you didn't.[/quote:1wzqjdmc] Yep-- if it seemed like a "WTF" move to most impartial, rational-minded observers, and it indeed didn't work out, then yeah, it's a bit more egregious than if a prized player acquisition goes unexpectedly sour. And on the second point, a la John Maine as "throw-in," yep.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 19 2010 04:34 PM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

(REPOSTED FROM ANOTHER THREAD: Anything he does this year probably deserves an asterisk. If I don't give my direct supervisees a budget for, say, an office party, either I have to line-item approve everything, or shit doesn't get done. Also, the party will most likely be shittier than a pen full of overfed cattle.) From today's Buster Olney blog post: No budget? No problem. Just ask nicely. Part of the unusual nature of the Mets' offseason has been the fact that general manager Omar Minaya has never been given a budget. As the baseball operations powers have been evaluating possible strategies, the executives haven't been able to cast these choices against the context of how much money is available. On almost all teams, the talent evaluators are given a budget and then paint within those lines, dispersing the dollars according to the needs. The Mets' front office, on the other hand, is making its recommendations to Jeff Wilpon on a case-by-case basis, without knowing whether it is yet bumping up against a financial ceiling, or knowing how to prioritize the current needs for pitching or catching. "You need to start with a budget," said one talent evaluator. "And then you work from there. This really makes it much more difficult." In many cases, Wilpon has been the lead negotiator for the Mets this offseason, and not Omar Minaya -- reinforcing the belief in some corners of the organization that Minaya is one extended losing streak removed from being fired.

Valadius Jan 19 2010 08:52 PM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

I call that mismanagement on Jeff Wilpon's part.

MFS62 Jan 19 2010 09:44 PM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Well, here's a list of all his moves (the non-moves, such as leaving Flores unprotected, aren't on it): 2005: signing Pedro signing Beltran - those seem obvious, but keep in mind the mets were coming off of three straight last place finishes and had a reputation for not going out and spending...omar convinced ownership to do this for both talent and credibility drafting Mike Pelfrey 2006: traded Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady traded Yusmeiro Petit and two middling prospects for Carlos Delgado who hit 38 HRs traded middling prospects for Paul Loduca who hit .320 traded Kris Benson for John Maine and Jorge Julio later traded Julio for El Duque who was the mets most consistent starter in 2006 and 2007 traded Jae Seo, coming off of a very good year, for Duaner Sanchez who was the best setup man in baseball in 2006 until his injury traded Nady for Oliver Perez (won game 4 of the nlcs and had a good start in game 7, then won 15 games the following year) and Roberto Hernandez (replaced Sanchez) identifying Jose Valentin as a cheap bounceback candidate who ended up hitting 18 HRs as a 2B acquired Shawn Green in a waiver deal 2007: traded for Luis Castillo (proved a good move down the stretch, the 4-year extension is another story) traded Heath Bell (one of the bad moves, but he never seemed to fit in with the mets) signed Moises Alou, who while he got hurt, hit .340 for 2/3 of the season 2008: Castillo 4-year deal - stupid swapping out Milledge for Chuch and Schneider - many would do this again, regardless of how it worked out ripped off the Twins for Santana when several other teams could have done the same...Omar deserves more credit for this than simply offering a big contract extension to Johan 2009: Perez 3-year deal - looks bad, but the Mets got excellent value out of the initial trade that brought him in signed k-rod (obvious) trading for JJ Putz - regardless of how it worked out, it was a great deal at the time and one i would make 10 times over ************************************************************** This is maybe a better body of work than 90% of the GM's over the last five years (Of course I didn't check that. Just an impression)...my biggest knock on Omar is the penny pinching in the draft, which has become a terrible trend since signing Pelfrey in 2005. By that I mean not paying over "slot". My contention has been that much of Omar's success has been money related - he could afford to buy a player (Beltran, K-Mart, et. al.), trade almost nothing for a guy making, or about to make money (Delgado) or protecting a highly/ over paid player he already signed by trading away a minor leaguer who is better (Bell). If the owners hadn't had the money they had, I doubt Omar could have acquired the players he has. But, the money seems to dry up when it comes to paying for draft picks. On just good old fashioned player-for-player deals, IMO he leaves a lot to be desired. Later

Edgy DC Jan 20 2010 07:05 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Those are not all his moves. Far from it.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 20 2010 07:32 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

Who actually wrote that post? It's a cut and paste no? trading for JJ Putz - regardless of how it worked out, it was a great deal at the time and one i would make 10 times over It was a retarded trade at the time, and because it worked out horribly, it'd be stupid to even consider again.

MFS62 Jan 20 2010 08:33 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="John Cougar Lunchbucket":s9mhs0q3]Who actually wrote that post? It's a cut and paste no? [/quote:s9mhs0q3] Yes, from a members only site, so I couldn't post the link. Later

Benjamin Grimm Jan 20 2010 08:40 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

When you do that, I'd suggest you put it in a quote box. You probably don't want people thinking that someone else's words are your own.

MFS62 Jan 20 2010 08:57 AM Re: Omar's... um... Greatest Hits

[quote="Benjamin Grimm":to4bvh47]When you do that, I'd suggest you put it in a quote box. You probably don't want people thinking that someone else's words are your own.[/quote:to4bvh47] Good idea. Thanks, Later