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NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Frayed Knot Jan 08 2010 07:51 AM

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/8 ... #storyjump Sickels self-publishes a guide to minor league systems each year and is the host at http://www.minorleagueball.com I tend to like his stuff as he doesn't get caught up in the 'you-heard-it-here-first' kind of hype where teenagers with half a good season in the low minors are touted as the next superstar in order to get the attention of fantasy 'keeper-league' geeks. Instead, he tends to be a bit of hard marker who would rather be good than first over the long haul. Also, instead of just an ordinal ranking he gives grades plus quickie explanations (more in depth obviously if you buy his book). His comments on the system overall: On the pitching side, the Mets have something potentially special in Jenrry Mejia, although they really need to be careful about how they handle him in '10. His secondary stuff still needs work, and I think they are asking for trouble if they rush him. Niese is ready now, and while he's not spectacular I think he will have a good career. Holt and Niesen have upside but need to sharpen their command. There are other Grade C types who can help as utility pitchers soon, but I'm very intrigued by the pitching the Mets have gathered in A-ball. Allen and Familia look like breakout candidates to me and I'm going to rank them aggressively. Lefties Matz and Urbina provide some long-distance projection. On the hitting side, Martinez can still be a star, but he's got to stay healthy. I think 400 Triple-A at-bats would do him a world of good. Flores' numbers in the Sally League aren't great, but he was the youngest guy in the circuit and we have to cut him some slack for that. Ike Davis should be a solid hitter, while Tejada, Havens and Nieuwenhuis can at least be contributors and maybe more. Thole is one of the guys I think is overhyped. Marte and Puelo have potential but are too raw to rank higher at this stage. Overall, I think the Mets system is stronger at the top than a lot of people think, but at the same time they could use more depth in Grade C+/B- types. Some of the Cs have the potential to improve greatly. And on some of the top guys (more via the link): 1) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B+: He needs to refine his breaking ball and a full year of Double-A/Triple-A is necessary in my view, but he also has number one starter potential. I hope they don't rush him. 2) Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+: Considering the age/competition differential, he had a pretty good year. Hard to get a handle on him sabermetrically as a result, but I'll give him some slack. 3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He's made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher. 4) Ike Davis, 1B, Grade B: Showed he could hit for power, also has a fine glove. But I think he looks more like a solid regular than a future star. 5) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: Assuming the hamstring is OK, I see him as a slightly above average starting pitcher, classic number three guy. 6) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B-: He'll need to switch positions, and health is an issue. Has power and draws walks, and I think the batting average will come up if he stays healthy. 7) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade B-: Significantly underrated prospect who deserves more attention than he's received. Breakout candidate for '10. I expect this ranking will surprise people. 8) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: Like his teammate Allen at Savannah, Familia could break through big in '10. This is another ranking I expect will surprise people. 9) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade C+: I don't like the way he fell apart in Double-A, but the arm strength still deserves respect. Perhaps he might do better in relief. 10) Ruben Tejada, INF, Grade C+: At worst a fine utility guy, but given his youth (age 20) and contact hitting ability he could get beyond that. I like him as a sleeper for long-term success. FK: His grades tend to be I guess what you'd call old-school type grading where a 'C' denotes an average prospect so C+ and B- guys are definitely ahead of the curve and he throws B-plusses and A-minuses or A's around very cautiously (I count about 40 B+ or better grades to date for all systems and he has only about 5 or 6 teams he hasn't gotten to yet) Guys you've heard of who are NOT in his top 10: 11) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade C+: The strikeouts scare me a little, but he has a broad range of skills. 15) Josh Thole, C, Grade C: He can hit for average, but has no power and defense is mediocre. Sounds like a bench guy to me. The Thole grade and comments has, so far, produced most of the objections (see discussion in link below the list). Some of that discussion can be from just yahoo fans upset that their favorites aren't praised enough but many of the posters at that site are prospect geeks themselves and seem to know their stuff.

smg58 Jan 08 2010 08:14 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

I would agree that the public perception of Thole's value has benefited perhaps excessively from his first impression, while the perception of Martinez has suffered for the same reason. I didn't notice anything overly negative about Thole's defense, but I'll admit I wasn't paying that close attention. I'm curious about Thole's CERA, though, which was quite a bit lower than that of any of the other Mets catchers. The sample size is short, and he may have just caught Misch and Figueroa on exactly the right day. On the other hand he never caught Johan, or even Fernando Nieve. If he gives me a reason to believe that's not a fluke, I could live with any defensive shortcomings he might have.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 08 2010 08:18 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

I would very much like Thole to turn out to be all that, and take over the catching job in 2011, if not sooner. But wishing won't make it so, so we'll have to wait and see. I'm also curious about Fernando Martinez's future. My hopes for him aren't as high as they once were (I'm getting an Alex Escobar vibe) but if he gets healthy and productive, and doesn't get traded, I wonder where he might play, now that left field is dedicated to Jason Bay for the next four or five years. Can he play center field, replacing Beltran if Carlos leaves after 2011? Or could he be a right fielder if the Francoeur thing doesn't work out, as most people here are convinced will be the case? My hunch is that he'll be traded.

Chad Ochoseis Jan 08 2010 08:29 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

6) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B-: He'll need to switch positions Is this because his defense isn't good enough for SS at the major league level, or because the Mets don't figure to have an opening at short until the 2020s?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 08 2010 08:31 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Former, and I think it's always been assumed this would be the case.

Frayed Knot Jan 08 2010 08:49 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="Benjamin Grimm"]I'm also curious about Fernando Martinez's future. My hopes for him aren't as high as they once were (I'm getting an Alex Escobar vibe) but if he gets healthy and productive, and doesn't get traded, I wonder where he might play, now that left field is dedicated to Jason Bay for the next four or five years. Can he play center field, replacing Beltran if Carlos leaves after 2011? Or could he be a right fielder if the Francoeur thing doesn't work out, as most people here are convinced will be the case?

I understand the tendency of Met fans to link Martinez to Escobar, but the thing about Escobar is that his prospect status came about after a real good year as a 17 y/o in Low-A ball. After that he hurt his back and missed an entire year. He bounced back somewhat to regain some of his former luster but was never really considered a top prospect after that. Martinez, for all his troubles, is putting up good numbers in AA as a 20 y/o - Sickels mentions in part of his comments about how giddy fans would be if he was a guy who just recently appeared and was putting up those numbers at his age. So even if the two had similar "ceilings" - as the touts like to describe it - Martinez is much closer to realizing his.

As for where he'll play, I think it's questionable whether he'll ever be able to handle CF. A corner spot is the most likely destination but he does have the arm to play RF so Francoeur doesn't need to be leaned on to fill that spot forever.

My hunch is that he'll be traded.

Always possible.

Edgy DC Jan 08 2010 08:53 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Good numbers at AAA. I guess we'll always (1) view prospects through the lens of our experience with former prospects, and (2) protect ourselves with cynicism. But root like hell just the same.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 08:55 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="smg58":2cmlr49b]I would agree that the public perception of Thole's value has benefited perhaps excessively from his first impression, while the perception of Martinez has suffered for the same reason. I didn't notice anything overly negative about Thole's defense, but I'll admit I wasn't paying that close attention. I'm curious about Thole's CERA, though, which was quite a bit lower than that of any of the other Mets catchers. The sample size is short, and he may have just caught Misch and Figueroa on exactly the right day. On the other hand he never caught Johan, or even Fernando Nieve. If he gives me a reason to believe that's not a fluke, I could live with any defensive shortcomings he might have.[/quote:2cmlr49b] Leaving aside the sample-size issue-- and yeah, using a handful of games to judge any defensive metric definitively is as bad as extrapolating lack-of-postseason-clutch from a batter's watching one nasty curve-- cERA has always smelled a little fishy to me as an evaluative tool-- it's always brought up in single-season servings, and tends to even out among catchers when you look at 2-to-3-year segments and up. Hitting-wise, I remember reading some piece-- Fangraphs? Sickels?-- where the author kind of offhandedly compared him to Mike Lavalliere. Obviously, we've got bigger hopes than that, but he does seem to be a similar-type hitter at this point, except with a slightly more heapin' helpin' of the on-base-ing skill. What REALLY excites me, though, isn't where he is right now... it's that he's shown such a capacity for picking up the defensive stuff so capably, considering he's been catching regularly for about as long as, say, Evan Longoria's been a major-leaguer. He's athletic in a way that our catchers haven't tended to be in a while... the anti-Piazza (no offense to Mike, of course). [Searching for something cynical to say here... um... he kinda slugs like a white Castillo?]

attgig Jan 08 2010 10:00 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

As cynical mets fans about fmart (were we going to call him something different?), mets fans shoot the moon with players like Thole and Murphy. Perhaps it's being jaded by super-hyped prospects like straw/doc/jeffries/izzy/pulsipher, etc who offer hall of fame careers but never quite pan out. or perhaps it's because they just love the blue collar folks like murphy - they want their rudy story.... With Thole, I think there's also an attraction to a left-handed backstop. He's improved his hitting in the minor leagues, to a point where if he continued his progression, he would be a decent hitting catcher (given that catcher is usually a weak hitting position). The most telling thing though is that the mets are so concerned about their pitching staff that they want molina, and won't risk it with Thole. Perhaps it's just because Thole is young. Or perhaps, they've known through his development that he doesn't know how to handle a pitching staff. Even if Thole turns out to be a Luis Castillo bat in the catcher position, catcher being the position it is, he may turn out to be somewhat of a jason kendall, which I can live with, as long as his defensive abilities + handling a pitching staff grows.

MFS62 Jan 08 2010 10:15 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr":31lgtggu][quote="smg58":31lgtggu]I would agree that the public perception of Thole's value has benefited perhaps excessively from his first impression, while the perception of Martinez has suffered for the same reason. I didn't notice anything overly negative about Thole's defense, but I'll admit I wasn't paying that close attention. I'm curious about Thole's CERA, though, which was quite a bit lower than that of any of the other Mets catchers. The sample size is short, and he may have just caught Misch and Figueroa on exactly the right day. On the other hand he never caught Johan, or even Fernando Nieve. If he gives me a reason to believe that's not a fluke, I could live with any defensive shortcomings he might have.[/quote:31lgtggu] Leaving aside the sample-size issue-- and yeah, using a handful of games to judge any defensive metric definitively is as bad as extrapolating lack-of-postseason-clutch from a batter's watching one nasty curve-- cERA has always smelled a little fishy to me as an evaluative tool-- it's always brought up in single-season servings, and tends to even out among catchers when you look at 2-to-3-year segments and up. Hitting-wise, I remember reading some piece-- Fangraphs? Sickels?-- where the author kind of offhandedly compared him to Mike Lavalliere. Obviously, we've got bigger hopes than that, but he does seem to be a similar-type hitter at this point, except with a slightly more heapin' helpin' of the on-base-ing skill. What REALLY excites me, though, isn't where he is right now... it's that he's shown such a capacity for picking up the defensive stuff so capably, considering he's been catching regularly for about as long as, say, Evan Longoria's been a major-leaguer. He's athletic in a way that our catchers haven't tended to be in a while... the anti-Piazza (no offense to Mike, of course). [Searching for something cynical to say here... um... he kinda slugs like a white Castillo?][/quote:31lgtggu] I agree that if he can continue to improve his defense just a little, he is definitely a good prospect. When I think of lefty hitting catchers with little power, I think of Smokey Burgess. Other than the year he hit the Bill James age of 28 (right about where James says power peaks for a major leaguer), Burgess' numbers were where I hope Thole can be. http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... sm01.shtml Later

Number 6 Jan 08 2010 10:16 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr":36tt2411]Hitting-wise, I remember reading some piece-- Fangraphs? Sickels?-- where the author kind of offhandedly compared him to Mike Lavalliere.[/quote:36tt2411] I'd be really happy with another Mike LaValliere, especially if we can find ourselves another Don Slaught.

seawolf17 Jan 08 2010 10:46 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="attgig":3tjqqurp]As cynical mets fans about fmart (were we going to call him something different?)[/quote:3tjqqurp] Fartinez.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 10:56 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="MFS62"]I agree that if he can continue to improve his defense just a little, he is definitely a good prospect. When I think of lefty hitting catchers with little power, I think of Smokey Burgess. Other than the year he hit the Bill James age of 28 (right about where James says power peaks for a major leaguer), Burgess' numbers were where I hope Thole can be. http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... sm01.shtml

That doesn't look implausible, especially since he's got the patience part of the equation down, and the bat speed seems to be picking up. Power can come later... As a matter of fact, that 24-28 progression looks delicious.

Dammit. Now I've prospect-priaprism. (GO DOWN, MOSES!)

batmagadanleadoff Jan 08 2010 11:31 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Smoky's closest modern-player similarity score comps are A.J. Pierzynski (906), Mike Lieberthal (898) and Bengie Molina (893).

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 12:30 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="batmagadanleadoff"]Smoky's closest modern-player similarity score comps are A.J. Pierzynski (906), Mike Lieberthal (898) and Bengie Molina (893).

Frayed Knot Jan 08 2010 01:37 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Why? If someone were to guarantee you right now that Thole would have careers on a par with Molina (any of them except Jose), Pierzinski, or (especially) Lieberthal you oughta take it in a heartbeat.

Edgy DC Jan 08 2010 02:20 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

I might even take Jose. Probably not Gustavo, though. Jose hit the last homer ever in YSII. HAH!

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 02:51 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="Frayed Knot":1ucdega8]Why? If someone were to guarantee you right now that Thole would have careers on a par with Molina (any of them except Jose), Pierzinski, or (especially) Lieberthal you oughta take it in a heartbeat.[/quote:1ucdega8] Mostly irrational "Do Not Want" re: Molina (although if he ends up as effective a major-league hitter as Bengie-- lifetime 88 OPS+-- it'll be a pretty big disappointment). Re: Lieberthal and Pierzynski? Yeah, I'd buy that. Funnily enough... another of Burgess' age-comparables: Don Slaught. (Who was in Pittsburgh at the same time they ran the "Animal House" clip during rallies, a movie that starred... Kevin Bacon.)

Frayed Knot Jan 16 2010 07:05 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Sickels final grades: Mets had no 'A' or 'A-' prospects, but Sickels only handed out 18* of those total for all 30 teams so only about half the teams have one. He had 44 prospects ranked at 'B+' or better (or approx 1.5 per team) Mets had 3 The average team had 4 'B' or better prospects and the Mets also had 4 7.9 is the average for 'B-' or better, Sickels gave the Mets 7 And the average system had 15.8 guys at 'C+'or higher, the Mets had 12 So, at least according to Sickels, they lack any elite prospects at the moment, are a bit better near the top rung, are about average in what I guess we could call 'good' prospects, and are still lacking in some depth towards the middle of the system. * GRADE A (in no particular order) Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Buster Posey, C, SF Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Jesus Montero, C, Yanx Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland GRADE A- Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Dustin Ackley, OF-2B, Seattle Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Oakland Mike Stanton, OF, Florida

Valadius Jan 16 2010 08:04 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

If we were to magically mix-up Chris Carters at the airport with the A's, do you think anyone would notice?

Ashie62 Jan 16 2010 09:50 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="Edgy DC":r69tjgre]I might even take Jose. Probably not Gustavo, though. Jose hit the last homer ever in YSII. HAH![/quote:r69tjgre] How about Zeppo?

Frayed Knot Feb 12 2010 11:27 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Kevin Goldstein, the prospect guru at at 'Baseball Prospectus', checks in with his Mets list His lists go to eleven and also throw in a couple of bonus names at the bottom. He tends to be a much easier marker than Sickels, giving out far more '5-Star' rankings than JS does 'A' or even 'A-' grades, so you just need to adjust your head accordingly. Five-Star Prospects 1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP Four-Star Prospects 2. Fernando Martinez, CF 3. Wilmer Flores, SS 4. Ike Davis, 1B Three-Star Prospects 5. Jon Niese, LHP 6. Brad Holt, RHP 7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF 8. Josh Thole, C 9. Kyle Allen, RHP 10. Ruben Tejada, SS 11. Reese Havens, SS Four More: 12. Jeurys Familia, RHP: Familia had the best pure arm on an impressive staff at Low-A Savannah last year, but most see him in a future relief profile. 13. Cesar Puello, OF: An athletic Dominican who has impressive tools, Puello also has considerable rawness. 14. Jefry Marte, 3B: Marte wasn't ready for a full-season league, but he has the ability to move back up the list. 15. Juan Urbina, LHP: He’s a big bonus Venezuelan who has crazy upside, but he needs considerable refinement. As the number 1 prospect Mejia gets a full write-up - while those who pay for their subscription will get the same for each on the list: 1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP DOB: 10/11/89 Height/Weight: 6-0/160 Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2007 2009 Stats: 1.97 ERA (50.1-41-16-44) at High-A (9 G); 4.47 ERA (44.1-44-23-47) at Double-A (10 G) Last Year’s Ranking: 7 Year in Review: This right-hander took a big step forward in 2009, as he reached Double-A as a teenager and more than held his own. The Good: It's rare to find a fastball with plus-plus velocity and movement, but Mejia has just that. His heater sits at 93-95 mph, touches 98, and features heavy, hard sink, generating as many grounders as it does swings and misses. He'll flash a plus changeup that also features significant downward action. While he's a bit undersized for a starter, he's broadly built (well over his listed weight), has clean arm action, and scouts have no problem projecting him as a starter. The Bad: Mejia needs to find a consistent breaking ball. He gets around on his slider too often, leading it to sweep across the plate on a single plane. His pitches have so much movement that at times he has trouble controlling them in the strike zone. Ephemera: While Mejia got hammered in the Arizona Fall League to the tune of 25 hits and 21 runs over just 14 1/3 innings, there was a bit of silver lining, as he did not give up a home run and generated 21 ground-ball outs against just six of the fly-ball variety. Perfect World Projection: Mejia will be an upper-echelon starter. Path to the Big Leagues: Power arms like this are rarely blocked. Timetable: While Mejia will continue his development as a starter, his fastball alone could land him in the Mets’ bullpen at some point during the season.

metirish Feb 12 2010 11:32 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Not that high on Thole , or is that about the view of him? Mejia to the bullpen this coming season? , just a personal thing but when I see a kid go to the bullpen who projects as a starter I have very mixed feelings. On the one hand he could do great and the call will be to keep him there and on the other he could be horrible and that could hold him back....

Benjamin Grimm Feb 12 2010 11:42 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

It may or may not make sense for Mejia to start in the pen, but it's a lot more fun if he bursts on to the scene as a starter, like Doc Gooden did in 1984. (I'm not saying Mejia is another Gooden... I'm just hoping he is!)

Frayed Knot Feb 12 2010 11:43 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="metirish"]Not that high on Thole , or is that about the view of him?

Well, calling someone a 'three-star prospect' (whatever that specifically means) isn't exactly an insult and Goldstein is higher on him than Sickels.
Mainly I just think the "ceiling" isn't all that high on him since he almost certainly won't hit for much power and is probably not good enough to be a defensive catcher alone. On the other hand he's closer to what he'll become than most of those younger, more projectable types.

Mejia to the bullpen this coming season? , just a personal thing but when I see a kid go to the bullpen who projects as a starter I have very mixed feelings. On the one hand he could do great and the call will be to keep him there and on the other he could be horrible and that could hold him back....

Y'know, for years that was the way a lot of pitchers came up; get your big league feet wet in the pen and if you prove yourself there you'll move into the rotation when a spot opens up. That view has fallen by the wayside over the last decade or two as clubs seem to want to separate hurlers into starter or reliever camps and rarely mix the two - although the Rangers did just that with uber-prospect Neftali Perez in the second half of last season.
Not sure if Goldstein is advocating that approach or just wondering if he'll be called up for a possible pennant push in September. If he is called up this year you'd like it to be because he's ready rather than because he's needed.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 12 2010 11:59 AM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

[quote="Frayed Knot":3rr38u4e]Y'know, for years that was the way a lot of pitchers came up; get your big league feet wet in the pen and if you prove yourself there you'll move into the rotation when a spot opens up. That view has fallen by the wayside over the last decade or two as clubs seem to want to separate hurlers into starter or reliever camps and rarely mix the two - although the Rangers did just that with uber-prospect Neftali Perez in the second half of last season.[/quote:3rr38u4e] Like J.R. Watkins, it's what Johan uses (to get to the bigs)! Even after the Rule V-iness when he first got to Minnesota-- he spent a long 2000 there out of roster necessity-- he did some swingman work for a year and a half. A lot of the stuff I've been reading about Mejia seems to be hinting that he may be best served-- and best serve the Mets-- as a bullpen dominator. I'm not sure whether that's just a groupthink-y earworm, or whether his AFL performance cast that much doubt on his secondary stuff.

Centerfield Feb 12 2010 12:00 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Judging from that AFL ERA, that's a pretty bad bullpen if it needs Mejia.

Edgy DC Feb 12 2010 12:07 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Latino + Fastball = Bullpen There are dozens of exceptions, of course, and the trend may be changing, but I suspect guys get overstreamlined this way. Anyhow, the trick is how your secondary stuff works for you. C.C. Sabathia stayed out of the pen by incorporating four pitches.

Frayed Knot Feb 12 2010 12:26 PM Re: NYM prospects acc to John Sickels

Yeah, Johan's pen apprenticeship was mostly caused by necessity from the Rule 5 situation. Plus he was still real young then. I don't think there's any point in trying to pigeon-hole him as a reliever or starter right now so I'd just ignore the talk and see how things go. I also haven't heard that [u:1ppts3hh]the club[/u:1ppts3hh] has any plans to use him as anything other than a starter. Don't put much stock in the AFL stats. It's the end of a long year and a lot of young players are tired by then. Plus it's a known hitters' haven.