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Endy Derby?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 08 2010 10:51 PM

Begins in two months, as he may be willing to sign a minor-league deal. At these prices, who can say no? (And what's a couple of knee ligaments between friends?)

Ashie62 Jan 09 2010 11:58 AM Re: Endy Derby?

I though this was end HR derby..sorry

Nymr83 Jan 09 2010 12:28 PM Re: Endy Derby?

if he really is willing to take a minor league deal just give it to him, at the very least he can make the pitchers in Buffalo look better with his glove.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 09 2010 03:30 PM Re: Endy Derby?

Um... a reminder: he's more than "The Catch." Provided the knee's decent, Endy's so good with the glove that he provides more defensive value in half a season than an average CF does in a whole year. He's so good that even if he's terrible offensively, he's a 2.0 WAR player (what we'll hope Francoeur is worth in a year of starting, with bat and glove). If he's at all healthy-- and yes, a lot will depend on the workout-- I'd give him a guaranteed 700K at least, MAJOR league.

Valadius Jan 09 2010 03:42 PM Re: Endy Derby?

You know, if I had to take a wager, Endy Chavez is probably one of the top five most beloved Mets of the past decade.

TheOldMole Jan 09 2010 06:57 PM Re: Endy Derby?

I love Endy. I had been planning to write that even before I saw Vlad's note.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 09 2010 07:03 PM Re: Endy Derby?

He's the Mookie of the 2000's decade.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 09 2010 07:20 PM Re: Endy Derby?

Exceeding expectations from the moment you put on a Mets uniform and involvement in one of the most amazing plays any of us has ever/will ever see go a pretty long way toward bumping up one's popularity.

Edgy DC Jan 09 2010 07:26 PM Re: Endy Derby?

So the cynic might ask why bring him back and spoil that. If Timo disappeared after the NLCS, he'd never again have to pay for a meal or a drink in New York.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 09 2010 07:29 PM Re: Endy Derby?

It wouldn't be for a farewell tour. Even if he's 80-90 percent of what he was, he's great bench value, and the sort of player that championship teams have at 4th-5th OF.

Frayed Knot Jan 09 2010 09:21 PM Re: Endy Derby?

Not sure that Endy can bring a lot that Pagan doesn't already only with much better offense.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 10 2010 05:37 AM Re: Endy Derby?

Well, if Pagan is the fourth outfielder, maybe Endy can be the fifth. Jeremy Reed was supposed to be the new Endy. Maybe Endy can be the new (and better) Jeremy.

Valadius Jan 10 2010 09:16 AM Re: Endy Derby?

I'd go for that.

Frayed Knot Jan 10 2010 10:46 AM Re: Endy Derby?

Not out of the question, but if Pagan were going to be my 4th then I'd prefer someone a bit more dissimilar to be my 5th - rather than just someone who's a kind of Angel-lite. Endy brings a better glove (although Angel is hardly inept) and makes fewer brain-farts on the bases but otherwise has similar skills only not as good and minus the switch-hitting and any semblance of power. You don't want an entire bench of speedy/slappy guys.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 10 2010 01:35 PM Re: Endy Derby?

I would take an entire team of speedy/slappy guys if they were superlatively good at making and/or preventing runs. Angel's pretty decent defensively. Saying that a healthy Endy and Angel are in the same ballpark defensively is a MASSIVE insult to Endy. It's a Bay-versus-Pujols type difference.

Frayed Knot Jan 10 2010 03:08 PM Re: Endy Derby?

[quote="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"]I would take an entire team of speedy/slappy guys if they were superlatively good at making and/or preventing runs.

Making runs is something Endy's lifetime .312 OBA and sub-.100 IsoP isn't likely to do much of.

Saying that a healthy Endy and Angel are in the same ballpark defensively is a MASSIVE insult to Endy. It's a Bay-versus-Pujols type difference.

But it's also not like Angel vs Endy defensively is going from horrible from great - good to great is more like it; and when you're talking about the number of innings a 5th OFer will get in a season the opportunities for run prevention become smaller still.

Mainly I'm just holding out hope for a more diverse bench rather than signing Endy knee-jerk style because we think he's cute and cuddly and still has some blue and orange underwear laying around.

metsguyinmichigan Jan 10 2010 03:21 PM Re: Endy Derby?

Sigh. We'll never have anything like an Endy catch at Citi Field unless the outfielders are allowed to bring a step ladder out there with them.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 10 2010 06:37 PM Re: Endy Derby? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 10 2010 07:51 PM

I never said Endy was an offensive plus... or even offensively average. But the upgrade from Pagan to Chavez is from "pretty good" to "OMG AMAZING." I'm in favor of signing him-- health pending-- not because of warm and fuzzies. I'm in favor of signing him because he's a defensive weapon-- as confirmed by DEWAN (over the last five years, +20-30 plays yearly between LF, RF and CF... in a thin slice of playing time), Fangraphs (+10 runs saved over the average CF playing a full season... IN A PART-TIME ROLE; even more valuable in the corners), and most people's freaking eyes. I'm in favor of signing him because he's a 3-4 WAR-with-the-glove guy (say, 2 WAR factoring in his offensive deficit), and he's cheap improvement (by comparison, the team is paying Francoeur about 4 times more for a lot less projected on-field value, and paying Jason Bay $16M this year for about 1 WAR more). That there are others around who just plain like Endy is great. I like Endy for what he may be able to do, not for pleasant memories. If he's offering himself for anything below a million, he's likely to be a HUGE bargain.

Edgy DC Jan 10 2010 06:56 PM Re: Endy Derby?

Are you really so confident in the meaning behind those defensive numbers?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 10 2010 07:41 PM Re: Endy Derby?

If you're asking whether I'm familiar with the methodology used to compile each stat, and the general meaning of the numbers? Yes. (I'm also largely familiar with the limitations of each-- the large swings in UZR/150 for some players, e.g.-- which, btw, are mostly minimized when you look at 3-5 year samples.) If you're asking whether my confidence in those numbers is enough to recommend signing him to a bench OF role for something between a minor-league deal and $1M... yes. The numbers, the GM opinions, our frigging eyes (and I'm talking perceptions of Endy's range and fielding ability, not "that one play I saw"). Do any of them contradict each other? If he hits, he's an ABSURD value... if he hits, which is highly unlikely (although it happened once on our watch, and Endy put up a 2.5 WAR in a part-time role then). I'm probably exaggerating a bit when I say he's a 2-WAR guy in a part-time role... it's closer to 1-1.5 if he plays something like 500-600 innings/200-300 PAs. But that's 1-1.5 marginal wins for less than a million-- a big discount over the going open-market rate.

Edgy DC Jan 10 2010 07:52 PM Re: Endy Derby?

Well, I'm asking the latter. Are you confident enough to believe (1) that's a meaningful representation of his value to a team, and (2) that it's repeatable. I'm torn between two thoughts (1) defense wanes as you get older --- your legs being the first to go, so they say, and (2) follow the fella that follows the dream. You've got a thought in your head you believe in, it's a different thought from what other guys may be working with, so sure, I give you permission to go ahead with a low-budget signing. The fifth outfield slot isn't so locked in. We lose a decent pinch hitter, maybe in Martinez or Carter, but Pagan becomes more burnable as a pinch-hitter while we have Endy to play defense.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 10 2010 10:37 PM Re: Endy Derby?

I'd say that: 1) Yes. 2) Dunno. The knee injury, in my mind, is the biggest variable. Knee ligaments generally are more of a limit on quick-cut lateral action (as with running backs, say, or basketball players), so he should probably be okay. But, yeah, all my assertin'-- and I'll be honest, there's a tiny soupcon of devil's advocacy in there-- is predicated on his being 85-90 percent of what he was. I'd jump on a minor-league contract in a heartbeat... but I think a lot of clubs will be in on that (including Seattle). I think part of my wanting him on the bench stems from the fact that I think of Pagan and Francoeur as I want them to be-- a fungible platoony pair for RF-- than as they likely are (Frenchy with backup/sidekick Pagan).

Rockin' Doc Jan 11 2010 04:52 AM Re: Endy Derby?

Endy was far better than expected during his time with the Mets. He was a defensive standout that provided adequate offense in a back up role. I definitely think it's worth taking a flyer on him for a minor league deal. He would provide depth in the event of injury and he would make a great late inning defensive replacement for Francoeur or Bay. If his knee ultimately prevents him from filling the role envisioned above, then the Mets aren't out much financially and he can mentor Fernando Martinez on defense in Buffalo while the Bison fans get to see a fan favorite.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 11 2010 03:27 PM Re: Endy Derby?

[quote="Frayed Knot"]Not out of the question, but if Pagan were going to be my 4th then I'd prefer someone a bit more dissimilar to be my 5th - rather than just someone who's a kind of Angel-lite. Endy brings a better glove (although Angel is hardly inept) and makes fewer brain-farts on the bases but otherwise has similar skills only not as good and minus the switch-hitting and any semblance of power. You don't want an entire bench of speedy/slappy guys.

Would Randy Winn on a $2M deal, say, be more appealing?