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If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 11 2010 01:33 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 21 2010 12:19 PM

Rumors threads abound, as do roster building ones. How's about getting defensive, and talking some glovework? To start: -- A nifty, straightforward primer from the Yahoo! gang about UZR, that mysterious zone-rating derivative that all the nerds are tossing around. -- A tidy MLB.com article by Doug Miller about the growing adoption of defensive metrics by major league clubs, including last year's CF-infested Mariners. (Also, there's a treat in the "Doing it the old-fashioned way" section... think of it as comfort news, if you're worried certain division rivals are getting too far ahead of our favorites, FO-wisdom-wise.) SEATTLE -- With two World Series titles in the last six years and almost-yearly postseason appearances, the Boston Red Sox don't have much of a reason to take after the Seattle Mariners, who haven't made the playoffs since 2001. Then again, it's 2010, and things are changing in baseball. Take, for example, the growing importance of new defensive statistics, which the Mariners used last winter in overhauling their team. Seattle traded for outfielders Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez and ended up improving their overall defense so much that they went from an American League-worst 61-101 record in 2008 to an 85-77 campaign last year, the biggest improvement in the Majors, despite scoring fewer runs than they did in '08. The Red Sox paid attention and realized that to once again catch fire in October, they'll have to get better at catching the ball. So after thinking seriously about bringing back Jason Bay or signing Matt Holliday, the Sox instead spent their dollars on D. Boston laid out warm welcomes for Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, and defensive stats are gaining traction every day with Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik and a growing number of executives. They might not have the same ring to them as traditional baseball stats like ERA and RBI, and they might take a lot longer to explain, but Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Plus/Minus (+/-) and Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) are all making more and more teams show serious love for the glove. Shopping around for value When GM Bill Bavasi was let go by the Mariners and Zduriencik took over last winter, the new GM brought along Tony Blengino as a special adviser. One of Blengino's main tasks, through his position at the helm of the team's first official department of statistical analysis, was to look for some way, any way, to make the most of a limited budget on an unsuccessful roster saddled with hefty contracts not set to expire for another year. "I think the first thing you're trying to do when you take over a team like we did is look at the big picture," Blengino says. "It's pretty simplee. How are you going to get good? "Looking at our ballclub, our ballpark, looking at [staff ace] Felix Hernandez, we felt that we were closer to being a pretty good run-prevention team than we were a run-scoring team. Big-name players are very costly, but sometimes you can come across impact players of the defensive sort a little more easily in the marketplace." The Mariners entered a multi-team trade with vaunted closer J.J. Putz as their main chip and wound up with Gutierrez from the Indians and Chavez from the Mets. Both were relatively inexpensive, Gutierrez was young and under team control, and the results were staggering right away. "With Ichiro [Suzuki] in right, Gutierrez in center and Chavez in left, we had three center fielders in the outfield. We thought, 'Well, at least we're good at something now, and it was something that was doable without spending a lot of money.'" The Mariners also had one outstanding glove on the infield with Beltre at third base, and by the end of the team's turnaround campaign, the UZR system featured on FanGraphs.com not only ranked them as the best defensive team in the game, but also pegged Gutierrez as the best individual defender in all of baseball. The Mariners continue to go in this direction, too. Since last July, they've added plus gloves in first baseman Casey Kotchman, shortstop Jack Wilson and third baseman Chone Figgins. And Boston is right there with this logic. "Unless something goes wrong, we really should be one of the best run-prevention teams," Epstein said recently in explaining the acquisitions of Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro, not to mention starter John Lackey. "If we just went out and addressed the offense, I think we would have had a really bad run-prevention year, putting a subpar defense behind a pitching staff with some holes in it." Getting in the zones One of the pioneers of these stats, "The Fielding Bible" author John Dewan, says it all seems complex, but it isn't. Dewan's main stats, the DRS metric and Plus/Minus, are the result of logical data culled from comprehensive, painstaking attention to detail throughout a Major League season. Simply put, Dewan's company, Baseball Info Solutions, has upwards of 2,000 "scouts" who pore over video of every game played in the course of a 162-game MLB season and track each batted ball, analyzing how hard the balls are hit, how close or far they are from each fielder deemed to be responsible for making the play, and the result of what said defender does. Many factors go into the point totals, including adjustments for things like stadium dimensions, wall height and even the occasional bonus points for home-run-saving catches. Successful plays are awarded with a positive point total, points are subtracted for perceived failures, and the scores are added up and equated to "runs saved" throughout a year. Dewan and most other defensive-stat purveyors tend to agree that 10 runs saved equals one win over the course of a season. "For Boston last year at third base, for example, Mike Lowell, who was unable to move well because of injury, cost them 20 runs, and now they have Adrian Beltre, and he added about 20 runs," Dewan explains. "Right there, the Red Sox have added four wins. Plus they've added three wins at short with Marco Scutaro and a couple more in the outfield with Mike Cameron. It's a huge improvement." UZR, developed by Mitchel Lichtman, is similar to DRS in its variables such as park adjustment, and to Dewan's Plus/Minus in the sense that its scores are based on how often each defensive player is better than average on balls hit into their specific "zones" on the field. Gutierrez, for example, led baseball with a UZR score of 29.1, while Aaron Rowand of the San Francisco Giants was one of the lowest-ranked center fielders in the game with a UZR of 1.3. "Gutierrez had as much to do with our success as anybody last year," Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu said. "He made our outfield better, he made our pitching staff better, he made our whole club better." For Dewan, Lichtman and David Pinto, who came up with the similar PMR metric, watching the Mariners improve by 24 games gave strong evidence that these stats are legit and the old methods of ranking defense, fielding percentage and range factor, are becoming antiquated. Doing it the old-fashioned way Not everyone pays attention to these numbers, of course. While teams such as the Mariners, Red Sox and Detroit Tigers, who improved greatly on defense in 2009, peruse and subscribe to these stats, some teams still just won't buy them -- literally or figuratively. "I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are," says Charley Kerfeld, a former big league reliever who now serves as a special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. "And since I've been here, we don't have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We're not a statistics-driven organization by any means. "I'm not against statistics. Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us." The results show that Philadelphia is doing something right, with two straight National League pennants and a World Series title in 2008. But Lichtman points out that the Phillies could be even better if they focus more on defense. "Look, a team can be a very good team even if they're bad on defense," Lichtman says. "And a team can be a bad team even if they're great on defense. "That said, scouts do a pretty good job of evaluating defense. The best you can do is use the numbers like UZR or Dewan's Plus/Minus plus the scouts. A combination of the two seems to be the best." Catching the wave So where does it all go from here? Onward and upward for the stat-makers, who are refining their numbers with new wrinkles such as the timing of each batted ball to determine how long each potential out stays in the air. "We're calling them liners and fly balls, and we even have a category for balls hit that are in-between," Dewan says. "We call those 'fliners.'" Dewan also said his company is measuring misplays and good plays. "There are tons of plays that are clearly defensive misplays that no one notices, like missing the cutoff man and allowing a runner to take an extra base. It's not an error, per se, but we're giving them a defensive misplay. "And if a first baseman makes a great scoop of a throw in the dirt, he gets credit for a good play. We have 54 different categories of misplays and 27 in good plays. "It's all part of trying to get to where the hitters and pitchers are with stats. We need about another 20 percent and we'll be there." As far as the open market for players is concerned, Dewan says Boston's recent splurge on expensive leather might jack up the value of defense even more. "Now you have a big-market team doing it," Dewan says. "Now it's going to be adopted, no question. Teams are going to think, 'If it works for Boston, it should work for us.' "And that's great to see."

Fman99 Jan 11 2010 03:58 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

You should wear a glove, even if she doesn't insist. Best way to keep your gear from rotting off. Oh wait, what?

Chad Ochoseis Jan 11 2010 08:25 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

Thanks for posting this. I've never seen an explanation of UZR that went beyond "it's this really great statistical like metric that's better than fielding percentage." It's not bad, but... The Yahoo article wrote: Using run expectancy charts, these rates can be converted to runs. In a nutshell, that's the problem I have with most of the more advanced stats. There's usually some kind of proprietary (or not readily available) methodology underlying all the rigor. Without knowing what a run expectancy chart is - I mean, knowing how it's calculated, not just knowing that it's the "expected run value of hits in zone X" - I can't judge how relevant UZR is. The boring old school fielding and batting metrics have flaws, but they have the advantage of being completely accessible, so that you can mentally correct for the flaws however you choose. With UZR, you've just got to trust the smart guys who put together the methodology. Simply put, Dewan's company, Baseball Info Solutions, has upwards of 2,000 "scouts" who pore over video of every game played in the course of a 162-game MLB season and track each batted ball, analyzing how hard the balls are hit, how close or far they are from each fielder deemed to be responsible for making the play, and the result of what said defender does. This isn't really a statistical method at all, then - just scouting gone wild. Nice, though I've got to wonder about those 2000 "scouts," where Dewan found them, and how well they know the game. Fman99 wrote: You should wear a glove, even if she doesn't insist. Best way to keep your gear from rotting off. You can put the boy in Utah, but you can't put the Utah into the boy.

Edgy DC Jan 11 2010 08:42 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

I'd just rather things weren't converted into runs, and then to wins from there, as if X amount of runs equals a win --- but rather the performance was converted to wins directly. S drive to rightt with the winning run on first and one out in the ninth, the fielder pulls up to play it on a hop. If the same hit comes with the winning run on third, he dives with all his might, but the performance is scored as if the situation is the same. A simialr effect may come into play with a fielder guarding the line, giving up more singles in exchange for fewer doubles. It seems miniscule, but I don't think it is, particularly in the case of late-inning defensivive replacements, for whom each decision is that sort of high-leverage choice. I guess the implact of a pinch hitter or a relief pitcher is analogous.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 12 2010 12:03 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 12 2010 12:09 AM

CHAD: That's the primary issue I have with UZR too, Ocho. The idea is that it's an defensive stat that corresponds nicely with the "Runs Created" offensive stat (of Jamesian origin) to give a neat total picture of the player in full. Not seeing behind the curtain/being able to check the math is a pain, but as long as the run values are constant, we can-- theoretically-- trust their results within the system itself; the numbers may at worst be inaccurate but precise, and thus okay for comparing UZR to UZR. And Dewan's +/- depends on data collection/production via people's subjective interpretation of actual events... like virtually every other stat/measurement/decision on a ballfield-- going all the way down to hit/error or pitching-win decisions by team scorers and ball/strike calls. As far as the "scouting," they're basically playing, rewinding, playing again, and recording play result--in essence, it's "line drive 10 feet from fielder caught for out" x 10000. And while they probably couldn't tell you what a winning clubhouse smells like, I'd venture that each of those scouts probably watches more baseball than your average BBWAA writer. EDGE: Without translating first to a run value, approximating wins either becomes infinitely more difficult/convoluted or it grows more arbitrary than assignation of traditional pitcher-wins. As far as context goes, well... no, that's not really covered here. But just as offensive rate stats tell you about general offensive prowess but don't tell you much about relative weight of PAs, these metrics aim at telling you about the player's skill in general, not how he does situationally. Similarly, as the offensive stats don't tell you about swing mechanics, +/- and UZR don't tell you how much of the results are due to bad paths, or good positioning, or PlasticMan arms. There are other stats that attempt to and do a better job at depicting the difficulty/importance of performance in context (Win Percentage Added being the big one). But, conversely, those don't do so well at telling you about the player as much as about the game/games.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 12 2010 12:07 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

From the Patrick Flood blog-- purveyor of last week's David Wright Week-- it's a squinty, smart-cum-smartassy look at Dabidrye's defensive travails. A sample: When David Wright came up in 2004, both defensive evaluation systems, UZR and +/-, agreed that he was an above-average fielder for his half season. David followed up that effort by achieving below-average defensive marks in both 2005 and 2006, then above-average marks in 2007 and 2008. The roller coaster came back down again in 2009 when David registered a -10.4 UZR and -13 Runs Saved, which are Luis Castillo levels of defensive ineptness. The poor defense combined with a power blackout is how a 7.4 WAR player becomes a 3.4 WAR player in just one year.

Ceetar Jan 12 2010 07:18 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

Doesn't the article sorta contridict itself a little with talking up defensive stats and then mentioning the Phillies have no interest in stats whatsoever? (which doesn't surprise me.) And if this is the case, and the Phillies obviously played above their heads defensively last year (Howard may be genuine improvement, but Ibanez?) and the supposed downgrade of defense with Polanco, aren't they in for a regression to ~87 or so wins?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 12 2010 09:23 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

I don't think the article is arguing FOR anything in particular, apart from merely raising the facts that: 1) Many more teams are focusing on newer defensive metrics in player evaluation and team-building, and 2) Some teams-- the Mariners and Rays being two good recent examples-- have found it a smart way to build a contending team on the cheap (as defense is still less properly valued than it should be). That the Phils don't focus on newer metrics doesn't mean that they're ignoring defense, nor does it mean that they won't have players who look good on said metrics. (And didja catch who's speaking for them these days? That's the real treat!)

Edgy DC Jan 21 2010 12:13 PM Defense

Let's look at defense: c: BlancoSantos (journeymen who can fairly be described as fair, but it takes a dose of charity to elevate them to average) 1b: Murphy (muffy), Carter (described as indifferent at any position), or Delgado (old and gimpy) 2b: Castillo (Once good, now old, gimpy, and coming off a season of terrible metrics and one wretched lowlight-film drop) 3b: Wright (Sometimes excellent, often erratic) ss: Reyes (rangey, strong-armed, and creative, but unpolished and coming off a mysterious leg injury and surgery) ut: Cora (probably fair at all three infield slots, maybe able to achieve averageness when healthy, probably not), Hernandez (has always looked good, but his metrics always look bad) lf: Bay (below average) cf: Beltran (excellent when healthy, but coming off a career-risking leg injury/operation), or Pagan (probably average, makes some bad reads but some acrobatic catches too) rf: Francoeur (could be anywhere --- average-ish with a cannon of an arm, but over-aggressive throwing gave him terrible metrics last year) How do you feel about this defense? Will it be a minor issue? A hewage one? What do you propose be done?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 21 2010 12:18 PM Re: Defense

I'd guess it won't be the worst in the league, but I'm afraid that over the course of the long season it's likely to cost us a few games. That and Jerry's passive offensive gameplan will be hard to overcome, I think.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 21 2010 12:18 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove.

PSST!

Edgy DC Jan 21 2010 12:40 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Sorry, all merged.

smg58 Jan 21 2010 01:10 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Outfield defense is a BIG worry. Beltran is out at least a month and may be compromised when he gets back. With Bay, you hope he hits well enough so that people don't notice his fielding. Francoeur's arm may cancel out his below-average range, or it may not. Pagan will be average in center, which may or may not be good enough to make up for the corners. I think Citi will be a much bigger issue for outfield defense than for hitting home runs. The infield depends a lot on Reyes. Cora and Castillo aren't the plus defenders they used to be, and Wright is up and down. Murphy is better than his rep, assuming he starts at first. I think we'll be average at least in the infield if Jose stays healthy, but I wouldn't get excited about it. So yeah, I'm worried, especially with Beltran out.

Nymr83 Jan 21 2010 01:20 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Its easy to notice someone pulling a Knoblauch and hitting Keith Olberman's mom in the stands with an errant throw, but bad range is probably a much bigger culprit in bad defenses over the course of a season and it is much harder to spot.

Edgy DC Jan 23 2010 08:36 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Except that Knoblauch's actual throw was symptomatic of a broader issue of erratic throws. Now, replacing F-Bomb with Sarge, Jr. --- that's not sending us in the right direction.

Frayed Knot Jan 23 2010 08:41 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

An extra outfielder who allows them to keep Fernando starting everyday in Buffalo for at least a half-season is a good thing.

Edgy DC Jan 23 2010 08:54 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Oh, understood. I'm just using this thread to look at the acquisition through a defense-first prism, if not a defense-only one. If Jr. displaces Carter, he improves the team's defense (though maybe cuts down on the versatility). If he replaces Martinez (more likely, I think), he does not.

smg58 Jan 23 2010 09:12 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

If Martinez can't start right now, he's not making the team out of ST regardless. Carter will likely still have a place on the bench, though. It will be interesting to see what happens when Beltran comes back. It's certainly possible that Carter can outperform Matthews, and extremely likely that Pagan will. Would the Mets be OK DFAing Matthews at that point if it comes to that?

Ceetar Jan 23 2010 10:49 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

My impressions of Bay is that he's basically average range (and does that translate to below average at citi? who knows..) but is solid within that range. He's used to the off the wall shot which is helpful in Citi (and is something Tatis and Sheffield were abysmal at). I think Pagan's fairly decent, he's obviously no Beltran, but who is? I'm not going to worry about 'what if' he doesn't come back with full range right now, and assume he will by May 1st. I think Reyes will be okay, range/speed wise, and I think Castillo gets a bit of a bad rap in the range regard, but having Reyes up to snuff with his range and Murphy's actually got good range, he just has to learn more what's outside his range right now. Something I haven't heard anyone really bring up in regards to the Mets infield defense last year was their placement. Is it possible that whoever is in charge of positioning them was doing a bad job of it? Could they have moved Castillo more towards first, figuring Murphy would need the help, which would cause more balls to shoot through the middle?

batmagadanleadoff Jan 24 2010 08:55 AM Re: Defense

Edgy DC wrote: How do you feel about this defense? Will it be a minor issue? A hewage one? What do you propose be done? I was going to write that the Mets could dim the lighting by about 10% whenever the other team bats. This way the visitors would strike out more and more K's means less worrying about our fielders on account of there'd be less batted balls to catch. But then I realized that it might be even harder to field the ones that are batted because of the more darkness --the Mets might lose out on that deal. So I don't know anymore. What about darker by 40%? And if anyone complains about the dark, I figure that they could play that Rick Astley song, only really really loud and then no one would hear all the griping about the 40% darker. Besides, they'd probably start to complain about Astley and forget about the darkness. Plus, Fred can always say that it's another Ebbets Field tribute -- 1950's style lighting. Honoring the Brooklyn Dodgers means never having to say you're sorry. Also, I won a Strat O Matic tournament a long time ago (First Place!!!) by drafting mostly Home Run Hitters who also walked a lot. I had the most "4" fielders but I still won running away. Mariano Duncan was my shortstop and his backup was even worse -- this in an All-Star League. I was the last team to draft a shortstop because I went instead for the power hitters. I had Pedro Guerrero who couldn't stop a beach ball but no one raked like Petey did back then -- and against righties too. Fielding's overrated when you can outhomer your opponent by a lot. You can't catch a Home Run. So if Luis Castillo hits a Home Run for every error he makes, I think we'll be okay. We could also use some better fielders.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 05 2010 03:45 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

The reviled Patrick Flood-- who, again, has been doing some generally fine work over in NascentBlogLand presents a graphic representation of John Dewan's +/- numbers for our likely starting OF for the first two months of the season. Learning is fun!

Edgy DC Feb 05 2010 05:00 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

That's a lot of fun, and I like that he acknowledges that there's guesswork involved and that it's a work in progress.

Frayed Knot Feb 05 2010 05:18 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

What he said about Francoeur: "... looks to have averagey range, but the arm bumps him into the above average group.", is about the way I would have put it just from observation. And I wonder again if Fenway helped to "rob" Bay of some of his 'going back' range - particularly since he mentions that it used to be somewhat of a strength of his.

smg58 Feb 06 2010 09:57 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Bay's defensive numbers were better last year (at least according to the Fielding Bible) than the previous two. Perhaps he's made some adjustments, or perhaps he benefited from having less ground to cover in Fenway. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 08 2010 08:52 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I'd prefer Wally Backman working with him on second base footwork, but this does pique the interest: In a report for Newsday, David Lennon says Daniel Murphy will work with Keith Hernandez on defense at first base this season.

Edgy DC Feb 08 2010 08:54 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I'd prefer Doug Flynn working with him on second base footwork. I have to say that reading the amount of irrational hate and vitriol published in blog comments gets me depressed for hours at a time.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 08 2010 08:59 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

The simple answer is, don't read that stuff! I know you've tuned out WFAN (as I have) so I know you can do this as well.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 08 2010 09:17 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

You know that friend/acquaintance/relative of yours who likes movies and shares his/her opinions on the same eagerly, but has pretty damn close to the opposite taste as you? And how it's gotten to the point where you use his/her opinion as a counter-recommendation in choosing what movie to see? I have the same tack when weighing Metsblog comments regarding Metly developments.

Ceetar Feb 08 2010 09:22 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I can't stay away, it's like a train wreck. I don't listen to WFAN at work anymore, at least until it's really baseball season then maybe..but I prefer talk so I tune in for my commute. Sometimes I think I'd be better driving in silence. (Of course, then I'd hear all the bad noises my car is making)

Benjamin Grimm Feb 08 2010 09:31 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I've been WFAN-free for nearly five years now, and I've lost count of how many brain cells have regenerated.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 08 2010 09:48 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I've been WFAN-free for nearly five years now, and I've lost count of how many brain cells have regenerated. "Lost count?" Have you been listening to WABC instead? I find myself only listening to WFAN when I'm driving late at night. The confusion/vitriol are like cold coffee.

Ceetar Feb 08 2010 10:00 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

could always switch to ESPN radio. It's just as much Mets hate with a little less knowledge.

Edgy DC Feb 08 2010 12:28 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I use the radio for rock 'n' roll and the internet for Metly enlightenment.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 09 2010 08:28 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I'd prefer Wally Backman working with him on second base footwork, but this does pique the interest: In a report for Newsday, David Lennon says Daniel Murphy will work with Keith Hernandez on defense at first base this season. Updating... As Newsday reported on Sunday, Keith Hernandez will tutor Daniel Murphy this spring, and the two already have begun working out at the team's minor-league complex in Port St. Lucie.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 09 2010 04:40 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

As per Metsblog: In a conference call with reporters today, Keith Hernandez said Omar Minaya called him last week to, as he put it, ‘Get this whole ball rolling,’ so he could work with Daniel Muprhy on his defense at first base. He said he and Murphy also worked together yesterday, and he’s more than happy to work with him again at various points during Spring Training, though he doubts there will be time to connect during the regular season. Murphy said they worked on his footwork around the bag, and talked a lot about in-game situations. Hernandez said he only worked with Murphy on fielding, saying hitting is Howard Johnson’s responsibility. He said he also worked with Todd Zeile before, as well as John Olerud, ‘who, obviously, didn’t need any help at all.’ Murphy said, in time, he believes he can be an asset to the Mets at first base. Hernandez also worked with Nick Evans, who, he said, ‘Does a good job around the base.’ In the end, Hernandez feels Muprhy did an admirable job last season, being asked to learn first base, mid season, in New York, and he is surprised at how well he handled the transition. Video here. Want much, much more such video.

metirish Feb 09 2010 04:57 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

The local sports reports are showing some of this video , certainly it's encouraging how willing a student Murphy is , and always has been.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 10 2010 11:38 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Another Patrick Flood look ahead at defense... this time, for our intrepid young scholar/your starting first baseman for 2010, Daniel Murphy: Some baseball players just look like they were born to play the game. The smiling naturals. The ones who came out of the womb cleat-first, bat in one hand and glove in the other. They have a graceful gait of Carlos Beltran, that smooth one-handed Ken Griffey Jr. follow-through, or even just thick wrists and forearms like Fernando Martinez that inform the world they were built to swing a wooden bat with force. Even the big guys, the CC Sabathias or the Prince Fielders, move with a certain amount of grace and smooth coordination that hints to the point guard hiding beneath all the layers of flab. And then there are players like Daniel Murphy... The appearance of awkwardness is not always indicative of inability. Daniel Murphy's situation is one where looking at the defensive metrics can help overcome the lies of perception. He didn't look smooth playing first base, but he was surprisingly good. UZR ranked Daniel Murphy as the 4th best defensive first baseman in the majors last year. Plus/minus ranked him as tied for first with Albert Pujols and Kevin Youkilis. Fan Scouting Reports ranks Murphy as a better defensive player than either Carlos Delgado or Fernando Tatis. He was not only solid defensively, but in fact he appears to be one of the best... The defensive picture of Murphy is one of an aggressive player who too often has no idea what he's doing. Hopefully he cuts down on the errors with more experience, but that may not happen... If he's able to maintain his defense, he could actually (somehow) wind up as an average first baseman overall,* despite his batting that is well below the positional average.

Edgy DC Feb 10 2010 11:50 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I didn't think he looked all that un-natural. Notice how all the natural-born players are men of pigment.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 10 2010 11:57 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

It's proven that pigmentation improves UZR's by an average of 146 basis points; and naturalness by nearly 100%. Problem is, it also leads to massive increases in LZF (Laziness Factor) and MD (Mental Deficiency).

seawolf17 Feb 10 2010 12:10 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: It's proven that pigmentation improves UZR's by an average of 146 basis points; and naturalness by nearly 100%. Problem is, it also leads to massive increases in LZF (Laziness Factor) and MD (Mental Deficiency). Plus it causes their SF (Scrappy Factor) to drop nearly to zero.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 10 2010 12:10 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Now, now. I really don't think that's where he was going with that, nor is it where the piece ends up. Josh Hamilton or Mauer work just as well, if you'd prefer. Perhaps more to the point, there's Townie Cop over in the Bronx... or Murph's tutor hisself. As to the awkwardness... he didn't seem a little overexcited to you, both in LF and 1B? Eager puppies come to mind.

Edgy DC Feb 10 2010 12:25 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I don't really think it was where he was going either, but it's where he ended up, and I think he would do well to examine his thinking in light of that. I think Murphy looked like a rookie out of position in left field. At first base, he looked like a rookie who just made a damn fool out of himself in left front of perhaps hundreds of thousands of people, who knew --- knew --- that he could hack first and was determined to prove it. Once a combination of his manager's (initially quite meager) confidence and the realities of battlefield attrition gave him some room to breathe at the position, he looked mostly fine. At home. Comfortable in his skin.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 10 2010 12:44 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I don't really think it was where he was going either, but it's where he ended up, and I think he would do well to needs to examine his thinking in light of that. As someone who's all in favor of calling out brown-people-are-naturals/white-people-are-effort-guys dreck when I see it, I strongly disagree on this, and I think you might want to re-read the piece-- my excerpt may have been more than a bit misleading-- if you believe that's the product he's selling. (Christ, the first guy he references in the "born to play the game" list is Jeff Francoeur, via link.) I agree Murphy looked-- and, by self-report, felt-- a lot more comfortable at first. I also think he occasionally looked like he tried to do too much with men on first and less than two out, and at least 2 occasions I can recall without research when he charged so aggressively to the right that he left first uncovered. 10 errors in a half-year of first base is a lot.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 25 2010 04:07 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Holy fucking shit, that's a catch. Good on you, Ichy.

Fman99 Mar 25 2010 06:12 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Holy fucking shit, that's a catch. Good on you, Ichy. Beh. What's with that dumb little hop first? Endy Chavez it ain't.

themetfairy Mar 25 2010 06:26 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

IIRC, Shinjo used to hop before making catches.

seawolf17 Mar 25 2010 07:03 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I miss Shinjo. The Mets should bring him and Turk back as swagger coaches.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 05 2010 10:01 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

That nutty play from White Sox Mark Buerhle. Think Murph, plus added degree of difficulty.

DocTee Apr 05 2010 10:18 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

wow! Amazing play!

Rockin' Doc Apr 05 2010 11:00 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Baseball is a beautiful game!

Fman99 Apr 06 2010 05:11 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: That nutty play from White Sox Mark Buerhle. Think Murph, plus added degree of difficulty. Ridonkulous.

Edgy DC Apr 06 2010 05:33 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Was the barehanded catch just to rub it in?

metirish Apr 06 2010 07:00 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

That was a great play, Konerko was great in his explanation as to his thinking.....basically expect Buerhle to do the unexpected and that's why he was rooted to first base. Also , a lot of chatter here yesterday about GMJ in CF but watching the game last night that was a pretty tough wind swirling out there. I thought he did good in battling it.

Frayed Knot Apr 06 2010 07:10 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

24 hours into the season and the play of the year contest is OVAH!

MFS62 Apr 06 2010 08:02 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Frayed Knot wrote: 24 hours into the season and the play of the year contest is OVAH! I had this play tied with Murph's behind-the-backer from last year until I saw the bare handed grab. That was the tie-breaker. Then again, he's a Gold Glove winner. That kind of stuff is expected. Let's see him do it again. Later

Frayed Knot Apr 06 2010 08:18 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Hey, if he's going to throw it with his glove you might as well catch it without. Also, that ball didn't just hit Burhle, he deflected it with his foot so the play was intentional - at least to a degree. Reminds me a bit of one of my favorite GiDPs, turned in the playoffs by one the Indians teams of the late-90s: A hot-shot up the middle was deflected by the pitcher's glove towards Vizquel at SS -- he promptly did his patented glove-scoop-shovel thing over to Alomar covering 2nd who caught and threw it bare-handed to 1st to complete the GiDP. Two outs were recorded - four guys touched the ball - all of them used only one hand.

themetfairy Apr 06 2010 09:28 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

You want a glove? Here's a glove - Keith's Gold Glove, as displayed in the Mets HOF.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 06 2010 09:31 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

They put your face on the Gold Glove award? Or did Keith do that on his own after he received it? (I wouldn't put that past him at all.)

metirish Apr 06 2010 09:35 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Benjamin Grimm wrote: They put your face on the Gold Glove award? Or did Keith do that on his own after he received it? (I wouldn't put that past him at all.) Good question , and would they update the face for a multiple winner like keith or use the same one?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 06 2010 10:03 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

metirish wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: They put your face on the Gold Glove award? Or did Keith do that on his own after he received it? (I wouldn't put that past him at all.) Good question , and would they update the face for a multiple winner like keith or use the same one? That's a sweet way to memorialize an of-its-time haircut or two, innit? "That's the year I went feathered... and KICKED ASS IN THE FIELD." Metirish wrote: Also , a lot of chatter here yesterday about GMJ in CF but watching the game last night that was a pretty tough wind swirling out there. I thought he did good in battling it. Yes, but... he did that in EVERY Spring Training game I saw in which he played center. I'm not kidding-- I watched significant portions of maybe 5 games all spring, and he was turning around and flipping while chasing balls like he was following someone else's kite in each one. Hell, even the one good ST play he made-- the catch-and-throw doubling of a (Marlins?)runner on first-- seems to have been made because he made a mistake in breaking for the ball, and had to sprint so hard to get there, the runner assumed he wouldn't make it. (Unless you've got Gomez-Pagan-Reyes speed, that sort of thing KILLS your range.)

MFS62 Apr 06 2010 10:10 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

As they used to say in Ebbets field, DiMaggio made the tough catches look easy. Mays made the easy catches look tough. And Duke just made the fucking catches. Later

Edgy DC Apr 06 2010 10:37 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

I'm sorry, Pagan has the sort of speed that allows him to fit into the phrase "Gomez-Pagan-Reyes speed"?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 06 2010 10:46 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Edgy DC wrote: I'm sorry, Pagan has the sort of speed that allows him to fit into the phrase "Gomez-Pagan-Reyes speed"? 11 trips, 14 steals last year in 276 PA, so he's in the neighborhood. (Although if "Gomez-Reyes-Cedeno" or "Gomez-Reyes... Pagan" makes you more comfortable, I'd make the change.)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 06 2010 10:51 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Pagan apparently is the best athlete on the team, kills the other guys in jumping, agility drills and shit like that. I could not believe he got picked off again. I mean, I could.

Edgy DC Apr 06 2010 11:11 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Edgy DC wrote: I'm sorry, Pagan has the sort of speed that allows him to fit into the phrase "Gomez-Pagan-Reyes speed"? 11 trips, 14 steals last year in 276 PA, so he's in the neighborhood. (Although if "Gomez-Reyes-Cedeno" or "Gomez-Reyes... Pagan" makes you more comfortable, I'd make the change.) I know he's got good wheels, and I know he's got productive wheels, but Gomez is as fast as anybody, and Reyes, before he went down, was sorta top-fivish. Pagan has had some harsh and extended injuries in recent years, and it's great if he's still such a top athlete. I think Jerry's plan is to share the job, but the opening day assignment goes to the more veteran player because the more veteran-higher paid guy is a bigger pain if he's unhapppy. A more releasable/demotable has more motivation to take what he can get.

Frayed Knot Apr 06 2010 12:53 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Jerry made some statement about Mathews getting the OD assignment because he wanted Cora leading off and was more comfortable with GMJ down the lineup a ways than with Pagan -- a statement which skews more logic than a carload of Kardashian sisters dropped off at a physics convention. Anyhoo, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pagan up top tomorrow w/Tejeda at SS -- for much the same reason.

Edgy DC Apr 06 2010 01:01 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

There's some logic in there, but if you draw it out, you see it doesn't quite add up. It's the sort of logic that a bad girlfriend uses, and you know that trying to get her to be a little consistent ("if this, why not this?") is only going to get you cut off, but you can't help yourself.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 06 2010 01:07 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Edgy DC wrote: There's some logic in there, but if you draw it out, you see it doesn't quite add up. It's the sort of logic that a bad girlfriend uses, and you know that trying to get her to be a little consistent ("if this, why not this?") is only going to get you cut off, but you can't help yourself. I've been looking for things about which I can be thankful/optimistic, baseball-wise. I never thought that one of them would be, "At least when I question their logic, they don't call my mother's house 40 times in one night or try to poison my pets."

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2010 12:06 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Y'know how UZR's a bit of a stat-in-development-- like cookie dough, if you will? Fangraphs made itsfirst seasoning adjustment-- mostly via park factors, and then mostly as regards quirky areas like Fenway's LF, LF at Minute Maid, and Coors Field's meadows in general-- to the 2009 UZR numbers. There are a few names that stick out in terms of getting ratings bumps... specifically, a few former-FA left-fielders.

Edgy DC Apr 30 2010 02:58 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Turns out the Mariners were gakking at the FanGraphs rating also. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/m ... ave_h.html

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 10 2010 11:53 AM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

Beyond the Box Score takes a stab at catcher rankings[Players are ranked by linear weights runs saved above (or below) average in four categories. fielding errors (FE), throwing errors (TE), passed balls and wild pitches allowed (PBWP), and caught stealing (CS); methodology below]. Like most runs-saved/-earned-type stats, these are cumulative totals for the year. Our catchers last year? Barajas (NYM), 6.1 runs, 7th (out of 120!)-- kicked ass in plate-blocking/WP prevention... not so in mowing down baserunners. Blanco, 5.1 runs, 9th-- tied for third in the league at "caught stealing" score, even given limited duty. Thole, 2.4 runs, 18th(!) Our boy is REALLY not looking bad as a starter. Blanco-Thole, 2011! OTHERS OF NOTE: Yadier F., 14.6 runs, 1st Carlos Ruiz, 9.2 runs, 3rd Buster Posey, 4.2 runs, 12th Brian McCann, 3.1 runs, 15th Brian Schneider, 1.3 runs, 27th Ramon Castro, 1.0 runs, 31st Russell Martin, 0.0 runs, 58th Bengie Molina (TEX), -0.3 runs, 68th Bengie Molina (SFG), -2.7 runs, 103rd Chris Iannetta, -5.1 runs, 112th Victor Martinez, -5.7 runs, 114th Jorge Posada, -8.6, 117th Francisco Cervelli, -9.4, 119th Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: A) figure out the league rate for caught stealing; B) separate the catcher caught stealings from pitcher pickoffs; C) total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate; D) use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). Formula for runs above/below average: (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63. Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate = (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28. Errors: There are two types of errors, throwing errors and fielding errors .There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). Throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Edgy DC Nov 10 2010 12:19 PM Re: If you want love, you'll need a glove. (Defense 2010)

How did Russell Martin go from heir apparent to Piazza and LoDuca/future Met to kinda sucks at everything so fast? Did Alyssa Milano vampire-suck the talent out of him?