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Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2010 12:20 PM

Looked for a Pelf thread. Saw we didn't have a Pelf thread. Thought he could use one. Joe Pawlikowski kicks the big guy's tires a bit to see why the engine's running so nicely in a-- HOLY CRAP!-- not-exclusively-negative piece from Fangraphs and (more importantly) an informative one on pitch selection and some of the other factors underlying Pelf's early success. So far: -- More strikeouts. Increased K/PA rate, from 12.9 in 2008 and 13.0 in 2009 to 19.75 so far. (Likely a mirage, as his swing-and-miss rates look pretty steady.) -- Getting ahead in the count. 48 0-1 counts-- with five putting that first pitch in play-- so far out of 81 batters faced, with those batters going 10-for-50 with just one XBH. -- Pitch selection? He's got the splitter/split-curve thing, which looks nice and nasty. There are some funky numbers in his PitchFX stats, though (probably due to issues with the pitch-identification algorithms), which simply show that as increased changeup usage. He's also rolling with a really high strand rate (90.5%, with major-league average at 70-72%), and suppressing HRs... but overall, even the supporting numbers seem to buttress what we're seeing with our flawed, excited eyes-- that this could be a return to late-2008 form. What do you guys think he's doing right?

metirish Apr 21 2010 12:27 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

Just shows that a terrible Spring Training means jack-shit to the "Big Fella" , which he indicated leaving PSL would be the case. I can only take him at his word that Blanco is the best catcher he has ever worked with, great signing by Omar then.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 21 2010 12:56 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

He's coming out of that early suck period that most young pitchers have, especially one like him that despite his physical abilities didn't possess much real experience when thrust up the bigs. BatMags (I think?) one time here did a good job in comparing him to Mike Scott, who also rose to the bigs on the strength of one terrific pitch but who failed until developing complimentary stuff a few years down the road. Obviously Pelf's goodness is comprised of lots of those things he's doing -- getting his 2ndary pitches more effective and using them better leading to more strikes and fewer fatballs.

holychicken Apr 21 2010 01:18 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

metirish wrote: Just shows that a terrible Spring Training means jack-shit to the "Big Fella" , which he indicated leaving PSL would be the case. I can only take him at his word that Blanco is the best catcher he has ever worked with, great signing by Omar then. Nu uh! The Fan told me that I was supposed to be freaking out because the Mets were not getting upset when they did poorly in ST games. Are you saying that Craig Carton was lying to me?!?!?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2010 01:43 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: BatMags (I think?) one time here did a good job in comparing him to Mike Scott, who also rose to the bigs on the strength of one terrific pitch but who failed until developing complimentary stuff a few years down the road. Scarily apt, considering the split-type thing he's using to finish guys off these days. It's a fun little tumbler, and provides the kind of contrasting movement to his armside-tailing two-seamer and straight-to-left four-seamer that he used to look for with his show-me curve.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 21 2010 01:44 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

Well, it's a good thing Pelfrey has figured it all out before we went ahead and traded him for Danny Heep.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2010 01:45 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

So if he gets scary good, it means he's cheating.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2010 01:46 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010 Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 21 2010 01:47 PM

I kinda like the idea of opposing managers calling for Pelf's tongue to get checked for a sandpapery consistency or Emery-board-like grit.

metirish Apr 21 2010 01:47 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

He's not sticking tongue out as much if at all , is he? Wharton gets credit for that.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2010 01:56 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

What I saw of him looked pretty tonguey yesterday. Almost obscene. Mrs. Davis had to close her eyes.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2010 01:57 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

In the rush to break a story that might yet not really exist,* a number of our local fishwrap-scribblers keep mentioning that he saw a sports psychologist regularly over the course of the winter, seeking to find a reliable way of pushing through on-field difficulties. His strand rate won't stay that high, but still... *I'm just trying to avoid jinxing it. I'm very much looking forward to wearing my "Go Big Pelf" shirt on the outside of my clothes again.

Frayed Knot Apr 21 2010 02:30 PM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

Along those lines (sports psychologist-wise) Rick Peterson always claimed that the Pelfrey he saw in warmups or on 'throw days' was rarely the same one he saw on the mound in games, lending credence to at least part of the problem was him needing a check-up from the neck up. I generally tend to dismiss such talk (or at least swallow it in small sips) as many heralded young players who don't set the world on fire immediately are labeled as mental midgets by ... well, by mental midgets, but in his case maybe the light just went on a bit more slowly. All that said, this is not the first hot stretch he's had in the major leagues and therefore is hardly proof that all struggles are behind him.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 27 2010 06:50 AM Re: Finger-Lickin' Good-- Mike Pelfrey, 2010

Games 1 and 4: squeezed by the umps, saved by timely DPs. Games 2 and 3: friendly strike zone, dominant w/high K numbers. Is Mike Pelfrey a power-version of Reed/Glavine?