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On Met-rics.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 23 2010 09:38 AM

From the Ledger, Jenny Vrentas presents an informative interview with Mets stat analyst Ben Baumer: Ben Baumer says his gig as the Mets statistical analyst was a direct result of the popularity of “Moneyball” early last decade. And in his seven seasons in that position, he has seen the sabermetrics movement expand and deepen. Now, about 15 Major League Baseball teams have a person designated to do some kind of statistics crunching – including the Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals, Baumer said – and they are looking for new statistical frontiers as well. “Teams tend to be very guarded about what they’re actually doing with it and getting from it, because it’s trade secrets and stuff,” Baumer said Thursday at New Jersey City University, where he gave the keynote lecture for the school’s “Mathematics and Sports” program. “But certainly there have been a lot more teams who publically admit to using it.” “The Red Sox this winter were up front about the fact that they were trying to improve their team defensively and they were using advanced metrics to do that,” he added. “Now again, we don’t know what they’re doing with it. But as far as I know, there’s still a lot more work that can be done.” Between the explosion of “Moneyball” and on-base percentage, and the development of Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics – pioneered by Voros McCracken, who has worked with the Red Sox – sabermetrics and its usage has had many phases. Trying to get a handle on fielding analysis will be an important next step, though a more complicated one, since the events are not as neat as batter versus pitcher. “In the case of baseball players, we know there is some combination of skill and some combination of luck,” Baumer said, “and the trick is to try to discern how much of each we’re getting.” In his day-to-day, Baumer gets a daily stat file from the Mets. He goes to most of the home games, spring training and the winter meetings. Also a mathematics doctoral student at the CUNY Graduate Center, he splits his time between Citi Field and his graduate thesis – which involves combinatorics and graph theory, not baseball statistics. Mets GM Omar Minaya poses ideas to him, often via email, and Baumer will run the numbers to see if they’re true. He said he’s one of 8 or 10 people who can offer their two cents when a decision is being made, such as a trade or in free agency (though he doesn’t do much work with the Draft). But much of what he does concerns what’s going on with the team: Where is there a deficiency? Are they comfortable with the bullpen? Laptops aren’t allowed in the dugout, but coaches are given a fat binder before every series statistically breaking down the matchup with the opponent. Baumer is careful to point out that the numbers he runs bring an independent viewpoint to the game, but they don’t imply causality (i.e., explaining the Mets’ struggles over the past year). But that doesn't lessen the importance Minaya -- and former Mets GM Jim Duquette, who hired Baumer in 2004 – placed in this tool and the ways it can evolve in the future. “They’re very different people and they come from very different backgrounds, but in both cases, they were always interested in what I have to say,” Baumer said. “If you have an independent observer saying the same thing, you feel much more comfortable about whether what they’re saying is true or not. Whereas if they’re saying different things, maybe you don’t know who’s right and who’s wrong -- but you know maybe there’s more going on.”

MFS62 Apr 23 2010 09:42 AM Re: On Met-rics.

The guy must be a bitch to play against in your strat-o-matic league. Later

metirish Apr 23 2010 09:54 AM Re: On Met-rics.

The email Minaya sent Baumer regarding Francoeur must have been interesting. Teams tend to be very guarded about what they’re actually doing with it and getting from it, because it’s trade secrets and stuff,” Baumer said Thursday at New Jersey City University, where he gave the keynote lecture for the school’s “Mathematics and Sports” program. “But certainly there have been a lot more teams who publically admit to using it.” which means......it's a bullshit job with a vague job description and I hope saber-metrics stays popular so i can keep my job

Edgy DC Apr 23 2010 10:07 AM Re: On Met-rics.

I don't know how serious you are but I certainly disagree. A single arrived-at formula can give a team a tremendous edge (relatively, anyhow), and I'd guard the hell out of that.

metirish Apr 23 2010 10:10 AM Re: On Met-rics.

More joking about that particular passage and the secrecy. It would have been interesting to see where this would have went had Jim Duquette stayed around , I think he bought the concept a lot more than Omar ever did or will.

HahnSolo Apr 23 2010 10:29 AM Re: On Met-rics.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Baumer said Thursday at New Jersey City University, where he gave the keynote lecture for the school’s “Mathematics and Sports” program.

If there were a course on "Why field goals are worth three points and PATs only one" I'd totally pay the tuition for my wife.

Number 6 Apr 23 2010 10:30 AM Re: On Met-rics.

Minaya's bought into it enough to keep Baumer employed. It's not like there'd be a big public outcry if they fired him.

attgig Apr 23 2010 10:31 AM Re: On Met-rics.

I wonder with these secrets, if teams are actually tracking their own players' routes in the outfield, etc and just not sharing it with anyone. insert chip into the top of the teams' baseball caps and track movements... see how good these fielders really are... that's the first thing I think I would do...

HahnSolo Apr 23 2010 10:38 AM Re: On Met-rics.

Somewhat of a throw-away line in there, but it's info I did not know: why are laptops not allowed in the dugout? Not to go all green on y'all, but why do they have these enormous binders when all that could fit in one tiny laptop?

A Boy Named Seo Apr 23 2010 10:53 AM Re: On Met-rics.

metirish wrote: The email Minaya sent Baumer regarding Francoeur must have been interesting. From: Baumer, Ben Sent: Friday, July 10, 2009 5:33 PM To: Minaya, Omar Subject: RE: frankur The McCormick & Schmick's in midtown? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Minaya, Omar Sent: Friday, July 10, 2009 5:31 PM To: Baumer, Ben Subject: frankur oh your good, bennyboy! frankcure is yunger, too. and more right handed. im callig shurholz now. u & me, lunch at mccormicks tomorow. i'm buying. lolz! not really, fred is buying. rofl! omar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Baumer, Ben Sent: Friday, July 10, 2009 5:26 PM To: Minaya, Omar Subject: RE: frankur Omar, I was trying to get you to exercise caution before acquiring Francoeur. The only metrics I have where Francoeur comes out ahead of Church are age and right-handedness. Please refer again to the previously mentioned stats, and also look at Francoeur's declining wRC+ and ISO numbers before you do anything. Thanks, Ben -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Minaya, Omar Sent: Friday, July 10, 2009 5:24 PM To: Baumer, Ben Subject: frankur yah, benny, i wnat a guy to go to WAR, too! know what i'm sayin! i love frnkuour too. i'm gonna do it! thx.omar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Baumer, Ben Sent: Friday, July 10, 2009 5:17 PM To: Minaya, Omar Subject: RE: frankur Hi Omar, I'd be aware of Francouer's -0.6 WAR with Atlanta this year and his -1.3 WAR the previous year. Church's WAR for those respective years are 1.6 and 1.1. Also, most advanced defensive metrics tend to favor Church including UZR/150, RngR, DRS, and my own metric, the Baumer Adjusted Range Factor, where Church's BARF is 4 times Francoeur's. Francoeur is arbitration-eligible, too. I'd think twice about making this trade. Regards, Ben -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Minaya, Omar Sent: Friday, July 10, 2009 4:57 PM To: Baumer, Ben Subject: frankur yo benny! think of trading ryan church for jeff francure from braves. he's hardnosed, know what i mean? what u think benn? omar

metirish Apr 23 2010 10:55 AM Re: On Met-rics.

Lolz...well played

John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 23 2010 11:06 AM Re: On Met-rics.

I'm BARFing with laughter

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 23 2010 11:12 AM Re: On Met-rics.

BOC, natch.

Frayed Knot Apr 23 2010 11:28 AM Re: On Met-rics.

attgig wrote: I wonder with these secrets, if teams are actually tracking their own players' routes in the outfield, etc and just not sharing it with anyone. insert chip into the top of the teams' baseball caps and track movements... see how good these fielders really are... that's the first thing I think I would do... Not exactly chip implants, but your idea is sort of the way things are headed. The move recently has been to track the positioning and movements of fielders as well as the speed and direction of hits via Questec-style camera triangulation so as to get a better handle on who's actually covering more ground and getting to more balls.

metsguyinmichigan Apr 23 2010 11:58 AM Re: On Met-rics.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: BOC, natch. Awesome!

Edgy DC Apr 23 2010 12:02 PM Re: On Met-rics.

You know, Edgy, it reads better when read in the correct order.

metsmarathon Apr 24 2010 02:40 PM Re: On Met-rics.

Frayed Knot wrote: attgig wrote: I wonder with these secrets, if teams are actually tracking their own players' routes in the outfield, etc and just not sharing it with anyone. insert chip into the top of the teams' baseball caps and track movements... see how good these fielders really are... that's the first thing I think I would do... Not exactly chip implants, but your idea is sort of the way things are headed. The move recently has been to track the positioning and movements of fielders as well as the speed and direction of hits via Questec-style camera triangulation so as to get a better handle on who's actually covering more ground and getting to more balls. that's actually why they have the orange dot.

Ashie62 Apr 24 2010 05:07 PM Re: On Met-rics.

BARF!!