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Niemann-Humber-Verlander

Edgy DC May 24 2010 01:59 PM

I stumbled across this on a recent search: Q: LF from The Crane Pool Forum asks: Pitchers Justin Verlander, Philip Humber & Jeff Niemann were picked in consecutive order in last year's draft - #'s 2, 3, & 4 overall - and all, because they signed late, have essentially not yet thrown a pro pitch. Yet they turn up in very different places in the Top-100 list (Neimann = #20; Humber = #50; and Verlander not even on the list). What's the thought process behind the wide disparity? A: John Manuel: Niemann has the best combination of size, stuff and track record of those three; I personally don't think it's close. Humber performed better in 2004 as he was healthy when Niemann wasn't, and I admit I'm not holding his injuries (arthroscopic elbow surgery, groin pull) against him. Humber isn't far behind for me, I just don't think he has the makeup to be a No. 1 starter, and I think Niemann does, makeup and stuff. His ceiling is true No. 1 for me, Humber's is not. Verlander is just a completely different guy. He couldn't even dominate the Colonial Athletic Association. He throws harder than those guys and has nasty stuff of his own, but I don't see the aptitude or the makeup. For me, Verlander is a high-risk, high-reward pick, and I'm wary of the risk and wary of his track record. Niemann is really turning a corner right now, and like Mike Pelfrey, finding a way to succeed without punching a lot of guys out, and who knows, maybe Humber becomes a stud without the elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery. But man, when you're wrong about Justin Verlander, you're wrong indeed.

metirish May 24 2010 02:05 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

He only averages 17 wins a season ....who won the AL Cy Young last season cos this guy had a pretty good year.... http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ju01.shtml

attgig May 24 2010 02:31 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

meanwhile, humber is in AAA for the royals. Also to note, Humber, Niemann, and Wade Townsend were teamates in college. Townsend was originally drafted by the o's but couldn't get a contract he wanted, so went back to school. then got drafted by the rays, but his career never really panning out.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 24 2010 02:34 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

He only averages 17 wins a season ....who won the AL Cy Young last season cos this guy had a pretty good year.... http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ju01.shtml Greinke did all right last year, too (as did "King Felix"). Humber's strikeout rates-- middling, considering his stuff-- were no great shakes even before the elbow problems. THAT was the knock on him, wasn't it?

Frayed Knot May 24 2010 02:55 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

Where the hell did you find THAT? That had to be from Feb-Mar 2005. Niemann - as Manuel alludes to - was injured, and was so even at the time of the draft although he doesn't take that into consideration in his rankings. He later re-injured himself as a pro and is just now (late last season actually) getting on track. His Verlander comments stun me. True that's easy to say with hindsight although I think I might have been surprised at the time too. He does indicate that Verlander is the higher ceiling guy ("high risk, high reward") but he was also the #2 pick for a reason and the Mets said (or leaked) at the time that he would have been their choice too if still there at #3. He also got to where he was going pretty quickly. Oddly enough with Humber, I was just having a discussion elsewhere involving that year's draft with a guy citing this pick as an example of where the Mets reached for a boring & safe choice for budget reasons. He cited Niemann (and also Jered Weaver) as a better pick at the time although I could imagine the stink if, rather than seeing their recent picks get injured, the Mets simply started drafting pre-injured ones. My argument is that Humber was at or near the top of that year's lists all along and certainly wasn't an "under-slot" guy picked just to save money while obvious better choices were simply hanging around. The main problem was that the 2004 draft (esp the 1st round) turned out to be a notoriously lousy one overall.

Ashie62 May 24 2010 04:30 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

He only averages 17 wins a season ....who won the AL Cy Young last season cos this guy had a pretty good year.... http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ju01.shtml Greinke did all right last year, too (as did "King Felix"). Humber's strikeout rates-- middling, considering his stuff-- were no great shakes even before the elbow problems. THAT was the knock on him, wasn't it? I don't believe that Humber threw with "plus" velocity before his arm problems.

Edgy DC May 24 2010 05:23 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

The Mets (or rather Rick Peterson) also indicated that Humber was the only one of the three Rice-throwers that they would have picked.

Ashie62 May 24 2010 06:31 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

I'm going to need rice-throwers in October..

themetfairy May 24 2010 06:40 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

Ashie62 wrote: I'm going to need rice-throwers in October.. Are you getting married?

Ashie62 May 24 2010 06:48 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

themetfairy wrote: Ashie62 wrote: I'm going to need rice-throwers in October.. Are you getting married? October 13...Right around the corner..Thanks for asking**

themetfairy May 24 2010 06:50 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

Mazel Tov!

Edgy DC May 24 2010 07:22 PM Re: Niemann-Humber-Verlander

Congratuations. We''ll make sure Humber, Niemann, and Townsend are there.