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Pagan goes to WAR

Chad Ochoseis May 28 2010 08:58 AM

Angel Pagan is currently fourth in WAR among NL position players, mostly on the strength of his world-beating, best-in-the-majors at any position, +11 defensive runs (relative to average player, not replacement). Pagan has been a very nice surprise this year, and he's turned from Alfred E. Neumann into Albert Einstein in terms of on-field smarts in the space of one off-season, but I'm not sure whether this observation says more about Pagan himself or about the WAR metric. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... atting::13 OE: Hot damn, I'm George Theodore! I think I'm going to go crash into the guy in the next office.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 28 2010 09:12 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

He's a hell of a player.

Edgy DC May 28 2010 09:30 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

He's had such a truckload of bad luck. He might have been a star by now otherwise. Hopefully playing center gives him fewer walls to run into. Angel is, among other things, the only big leaguer in history to hit his first two career homers on his birthday.

Benjamin Grimm May 28 2010 09:34 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: He's a hell of a player. Because of Pagan, there's been a lot less talk/angst regarding Carlos Beltran.

Fman99 May 28 2010 10:27 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

WAR, huh, yeah What is it good for Absolutely nothing Uh-huh WAR, huh, yeah What is it good for Absolutely nothing Say it again, y'all

Frayed Knot May 28 2010 10:29 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

Y'see now, my first thought was: Fredonia's going to war ...

attgig May 28 2010 10:52 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR Edited 2 time(s), most recently on May 28 2010 10:54 AM

from the espn article: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-yorkmets/po ... ngel-pagan The WAR over Angel Pagan May, 28, 2010 MAY 28 11:29 AM ET Email Print Share By Mark Simon One of my colleagues in our research department, Ryan McCrystal, and I have had an ongoing conversation the last six months over the statistic Wins Above Replacement, known in most statistical circles as WAR. Ryan sent me a note, referencing who the leaders in the NL All-Star race would be, if WAR was the determining factor. He was disturbed to see that the NL's starting outfielders included Angel Pagan. Yes, that's the same guy patrolling center field for the Mets. Ryan's a smart guy (he's written a couple of pieces for our TMI blog worth checking out), so I felt his comments were worth a closer look. Let's put the stats aside for a second. The thought of Pagan as an All-Star, all things considered, feels like a reach ... a rather significant one. But let's take a closer look at why the numbers are making this suggestion. For one thing, WAR is not like batting average. There are multiple versions. There's the version on Baseball-Reference.com, there's a version on Baseball Prospectus, and there's a version on Fangraphs. In principle, each version of WAR is the same thing. It's a measurement that attempts to take multiple aspects of a player's contribution (hitting, defense, and in some cases, baserunning) and combine them into one all-encompassing number. Sounds like the kind of stat that would be worth having, right? Well, we're not quite all the way there yet. There's no full-fledged agreement on the proper way to smush everything together. In practice, the methods of WAR calculation are different. Without getting into the specifics, there are differences of opinion on how to value certain aspects of offense and most notably, defense. The version of WAR on Baseball-Reference.com uses a means of evaluation that places a premium on players' putout and assist totals. The other sites take those into account too, but do so differently. Baseball-Reference's and Baseball Prospectus's version of WAR say Pagan is about 10 runs above a "replacement-level" player (think: Gary Matthews Jr. or someone of that ilk). The Fangraphs version of defensive evaluation doesn't just look at putouts and assists. It looks at where balls were hit, and how difficult they were to get outs on (the stat is referred to as Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR). It says Pagan is only about three runs above a "replacement-level" player. Both give credit to Pagan for something he's doing well. Pagan has four assists this season. That, in the small sample that is 2010, is an excellent total. If he maintains that rate and gets this kind of playing time all season, he'll finish with 14 or 15 assists, and you'll probably have a totally different perception of him than you do now. Keep in mind that there are some very good center fielders -- Matt Kemp among them -- who have not done what Pagan has done defensively. WAR knocks them down a peg for that. Getting back to comparing the WARs, while Baseball-Reference.com's WAR had Pagan as the third-best NL outfielder as of Thursday, Fangraphs rated him eighth, and Baseball Prospectus charted him ninth-best. So one version is basically saying he's an All-Star starter. Two other versions say he's having a pretty good season. Is that a fair assessment? Well, let's combine some stats that we think are important to determine that. Pagan is hitting .296 with a .361 on-base percentage and a .426 slugging percentage. He doesn't hit for power. We know that. But he makes up for that in other ways. His .787 OPS sounds rather blah, but consider where he's playing most of his home games -- Citi Field. Factor the ballpark in and Pagan is hitting a little more than 10 percent above what an average player would do. That's actually pretty good. And remember this: Pagan is the kind of guy who maximizes his talent by doing the little things well. As my colleague in research, Katie Sharp, said, he's the kind of player for whom you have to look beyond the back of his baseball card to appreciate. That starts with his baserunning, which is factored into some versions of WAR (the ones at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference) more than others (Fangraphs) * He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent). * He's gone first-to-third seven times in 12 opportunities to do so. That's way above-average performance. * And he's scored from second on a single four times in six opportunities (he held at third base twice). That's also way above-average performance. Take all of the baserunning opportunities Pagan has had this season into account and you'll see he's taking the extra-base 55 percent of the time. That's really good. Average players advance about 43 percent of the time. The difference between 43 percent and 55 percent is a big deal (he's not 12 percent better. You don't subtract one from the other). He's actually more than 20 percent better at baserunning than the average player. We mentioned Pagan's defense already. The numbers say he's been pretty good, and as an added bonus, tell you he has a skill unlike a lot of other players (the assists). So when you take an above-average batter, mix that with a way above-average baserunner, and combine that with an excellent (to this point) defender, what do you get? You get someone about whom it's worth arguing, statistically or otherwise. Some might call Pagan an All-Star. Some might not. But he's at least someone worth checking out. his base running has been impressive. especially last night as Kieth pointed out. first time he got caught stealing going head first, and getting his hand blocked even though he beat the throw. he learned quick, and second time, he went feet first, and even though the throw was a lot closer, the ump gave it to him.

Ceetar May 28 2010 10:53 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

My problems with WAR are the assumptions it makes about the R. Not every replacement level player is likely to perform at replacement level anyway, and it requires actually having those guys that will, and evaluating the backups too. I think R for Pagan should be calculated as Gary Matthews Jr. (I imagine that makes his level even higher?)

Edgy DC May 28 2010 11:00 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

That's not an objective comparison to the rest of the guys in the league, so they set a replacement level guy as an fixed value.

Ceetar May 28 2010 11:03 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

Edgy DC wrote: That's not an objective comparison to the rest of the guys in the league, so they set a replacement level guy as an fixed value. I understand that. It just makes me very skeptical about the stat (but then, a lot of those stats have similiar assumptions) and how useful it is. But it's Friday afternoon on a holiday weekend. not the time for a sabermetrics debate.

metsguyinmichigan May 28 2010 11:04 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

[url] Kiss tribute to Angel Pagan

86-Dreamer May 28 2010 11:12 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

I am sure he would not like it, but wonder if Beltran should return in right field instead of center.

Ceetar May 28 2010 11:14 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

86-Dreamer wrote: I am sure he would not like it, but wonder if Beltran should return in right field instead of center. As long as he returns I think he, and us, would be content to play CF, RF, 2B, 1B, LF or maybe even pitch a little bit.

Zvon May 28 2010 11:19 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

86-Dreamer wrote: I am sure he would not like it, but wonder if Beltran should return in right field instead of center. That's an interesting thought but right in Citi Field is as treacherous as any centerfield anywhere. Meh, maybe that's an overly dramatic way to put it. Might save him some wear and tear, I think that is something to think about.

Chad Ochoseis May 28 2010 11:27 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

Pagan is about 10 runs above a "replacement-level" player [nitpick]Actually, at least on BBRef, it's 10 runs above an average defensive player; the replacement level adjustment is made at the end.[/nitpick] I haven't seen much non-Met related baseball this year, but Pagan certainly looks like a reasonable All-Star candidate. Best defensive player in the majors and fourth best overall player in the NL? Maybe a bit of a stretch. But a fine player this year, no question. He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent). Without looking at the actual stats, this is something that I think the Mets have been really good at this year - stealing a lot of bases without getting caught. Bay is something like 7 for 7, no? And they're doing it without Beltran, who is the master of this skill.

Ceetar May 28 2010 11:43 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

Chad Ochoseis wrote: Pagan is about 10 runs above a "replacement-level" player [nitpick]Actually, at least on BBRef, it's 10 runs above an average defensive player; the replacement level adjustment is made at the end.[/nitpick] I haven't seen much non-Met related baseball this year, but Pagan certainly looks like a reasonable All-Star candidate. Best defensive player in the majors and fourth best overall player in the NL? Maybe a bit of a stretch. But a fine player this year, no question. He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent). Without looking at the actual stats, this is something that I think the Mets have been really good at this year - stealing a lot of bases without getting caught. Bay is something like 7 for 7, no? And they're doing it without Beltran, who is the master of this skill. And Pagan would be 9/11 if not for the foot of Valdez. I don't think the Mets are stealing signs, but they are getting very good reads on opponents. They always have in terms of SB though. What was with Ibanez's silly steal attempt last night? that was fun.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr May 28 2010 03:03 PM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

Ceetar wrote: I don't think the Mets are stealing signs, but they are getting very good reads on opponents. They always have in terms of SB though. Also, in terms of fielding alignment for opposing hitters, and how to pitch to certain folk. At what point do we credit this not to luck, but to tight advance scouting?

Ashie62 May 28 2010 03:13 PM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

I am anti-WAR, what is it good for?

attgig Jun 04 2010 10:52 AM Re: Pagan goes to WAR

fangraphs joins in the Pagan parade: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pagan-ritual/ Pagan Ritual by Dave Cameron - June 4, 2010 It’s hard to play in New York and fly under the radar. Every performance is magnified, and the always on media machine beats every remotely interesting subject to death. So, while he’s played a lot of good of baseball over the last two years, perhaps the most impressive thing about Angel Pagan is how underrated he still appears to be. Since the start of the 2008 season, Pagan has received 585 plate appearances, or just about one full season’s worth of playing time. In that time span, he’s posted a .355 wOBA and a +14.4 UZR while playing primarily in center field. That performance adds up to a total value of +4.9 wins, the sixth most of any center fielder in baseball during that time frame. Pagan is the classic jack of all trades, master of none, and his skillset is routinely undervalued for its lack of any one outstanding trait. He hits for a good average, but not so good that he’s among the league leaders. He draws some walks, but isn’t an on base machine. He has gap power, but his slugging is mostly made up of doubles and triples, not the more flashy home runs. He runs decently, but isn’t a huge base stealer. He’s a good defender, but doesn’t make a lot of spectacular plays. Pagan has no glaring strength (aside from his glovework, but the samples are still pretty small to judge whether he’s actually an elite defender), but neither does he have any weaknesses. He’s the National League’s version of David DeJesus – just a good quality player who never gets the recognition he deserves. DeJesus, of course, has never been relegated to a reserve role behind Gary Matthews Jr. That experiment mercifully lasted less than a week before the Mets realized the error of their ways, but still, Pagan was so lightly thought of that he had to beat out Matthews for a job to begin with. When Carlos Beltran returns, the Mets will have a decision to make. The answer is actually pretty easy – Jeff Francoeur goes to the bench, as he’s clearly the worst outfielder on the team. We’ll see if the Mets get it right this time, and recognize just what they have in Pagan – a quality outfielder who deserves to play everyday.