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Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

metirish Jul 14 2010 10:38 AM

Set up By Cody Derespina The Mets are in second place in the NL East with a 48-40 record at the break, but how will the second half treat them? While it's hard to predict how the Amazin's will play, we can certainly check out the schedule they have waiting for them. - They play 36 overall games against clubs with an over .500 record at the break (San Francisco, LA Dodgers, St. Louis, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Colorado). These teams are currently a composite 291-236, 55 games over .500. - They play 38 overall games against teams than have less than a .500 record at the break (Arizona, Houston, Pittsburgh, Florida, Chicago Cubs, Washington, Milwaukee). These teams are currently a composite 260-361, 101 games under .500 - The only NL teams the Mets don't face in the second half are San Diego and Cincinnati. - The Mets end the year with seven games against Milwaukee and the Nats. - From August 16-29, they play 13 straight games against sub .500 teams. Lennon Mets' fortunes changed dramatically from April to All-Star break Originally published: July 12, 2010 4:37 PM Updated: July 12, 2010 8:27 PM By DAVID LENNON david.lennon@newsday.com Here are a few things to ponder as the Mets rest up in anticipation of playing meaningful games in September ... At last season's All-Star break, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran were only at the start of their extended stays on the disabled list and the injury-ravaged Mets were 42-45, 6 ½ games behind the first-place Phillies. Now, a year later, the Mets are 48-40, trailing the Braves by four games and just one game off the wild-card lead - with Reyes and Beltran expected back when the second half begins Thursday. Here are a few things to ponder as the Mets rest up in anticipation of once again playing meaningful games in September: Chopping block to extension talk? Jerry Manuel has pulled off what many believed to be impossible before this season began - he's still employed at the All-Star break. Heading into the final 10 weeks of his existing contract, it would take an epic collapse to prevent Manuel from reaching the finish line. If the Mets stay on this winning pace and earn their first postseason berth since 2006, Manuel won't have to worry about job security for a while. Though his in-game strategy is curious at times and he burns through relievers at an alarming rate, Manuel has transformed these Mets into a resilient bunch that has learned to use cavernous Citi Field to its advantage. But one unanswered question remains: Can Manuel steer clear of the September pitfalls that have haunted this team in the past? The Beltran conundrum The Mets finally will have Beltran in centerfield, and batting cleanup, when they open the second half against the Giants at AT&T Park. But what can the club reasonably expect from the five-time All-Star coming off his second knee surgery in two years? At age 33, Beltran returns with a brace to protect his arthritic right knee, and he hasn't faced anything better than Class A pitching since the end of last season, when he came back from an 11-week DL stint to play the final 19 games (.284, two homers, eight RBIs). Manuel also has to figure out how often he can play Beltran as well as balance the other three outfielders in the equation. The manager insists that Jason Bay is safe in leftfield, but trying to keep Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur performing at optimal levels might prove to be a challenge. Manuel has no choice but to give Pagan the majority of the starts in rightfield - when he's not giving Beltran a breather in center. Big Pelf Why does Big Pelf keep coming up small?Maybe Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, the skipper of the NL squad, knew something the rest of us didn't when he passed over Mike Pelfrey - twice - for his All-Star roster. Since earning his 10th victory June 25, Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA and has not made it past the fifth inning in those three starts. He also has allowed 33 hits in 131/3 innings in that stretch and has shown signs of reverting to his old ways, the Pelfrey who sabotaged himself with mental lapses in tough spots. Pelfrey has been battling a nagging blister on his right index finger that could be interfering with his splitter - a breakthrough pitch for him this season - and he complained of shoulder fatigue, similar to a dead-arm period, in the days leading up to the break. Whatever the reason, the Mets desperately need Pelfrey to rebound. Get ready for the party-crashers Last season, the Mets spent the entire second half hoping for the speedy return of a bunch of injured players. That's not the case this year; the front office has exhausted every stall tactic to keep Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo in rehab limbo for as long as the rules will allow. Well, that time is running out, and unless the Mets consult the New England Journal of Medicine for some exotic new ailments, they're going to need to somehow make room for two of the sport's worst contracts. Perez is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three rehab starts, but he was unimpressive Sunday in his first one for Triple-A Buffalo, when he threw 100 pitches (52 for strikes) in five innings. Perez will have to be activated by the end of the month, but his role has yet to be determined. The Mets have 20 days to activate Castillo once he begins a rehab assignment this week and he could return during the West Coast trip. Deal or no deal? The Mets can talk all they want about the surprising contributions of R.A. Dickey and, to a lesser extent, Hisanori Takahashi. Maybe Manuel could even find a legitimate setup guy among a mediocre list of in-house candidates that includes Bobby Parnell and Ryota Igarashi. But the Mets got lucky with these patch jobs in the first half and really need to reinforce these areas with a trade or two before the July 31 non-waivers deadline. Cliff Lee would have been a great fit, but the Mariners' asking price of Ike Davis killed those talks before they could even begin. Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren seem too expensive, and the Mets aren't bowled over by the next tier of options, so Omar Minaya might need to get creative. The Mets went 13-5 in an interleague schedule that included the Yankees, Tigers and Twins in the first half, and things get a little easier after an 11-game West Coast trip that opens the second half. After the break, the Mets have 20 of their final 74 games against the Astros (.404), Diamondbacks (.382) and Pirates (.341). That should help them get to 88-74 and win the NL wild card.

TransMonk Jul 14 2010 10:44 AM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Cody Derespina wrote: The Mets can talk all they want about the surprising contributions of R.A. Dickey and, to a lesser extent, Hisanori Takahashi. Maybe Manuel could even find a legitimate setup guy among a mediocre list of in-house candidates that includes Bobby Parnell and Ryota Igarashi. But the Mets got lucky with these patch jobs in the first half and really need to reinforce these areas with a trade or two before the July 31 non-waivers deadline. A thousand times YES!

Edgy DC Jul 14 2010 10:52 AM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

They didn't get as lucky as all that. The good luck in finding adequate replacements for Maine and Perez was hardly more than the luck in those two failing/hurting in the first place.

Ceetar Jul 14 2010 11:18 AM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Edgy DC wrote: They didn't get as lucky as all that. The good luck in finding adequate replacements for Maine and Perez was hardly more than the luck in those two failing/hurting in the first place. Agreed on this. And it's not like Omar threw darts at the available players list and said "Dickey! Takahashi! That'll be my depth" He's gotta get some credit for bringing these guys in from all over the world. It also may suggest that he, despite yammering on about it, didn't fully trust Maine (and Perez) and Niese to be solid contributors and wanted to make sure he had real backup plans.

TransMonk Jul 14 2010 12:05 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

I disagree. There was absolutely no indication that Dickey would perform to the level he has in 2010. His best ML season was last year for the Twinkies as a reliever when he pitched to a 4.62 ERA. I would need to know exactly what insight Omar had before I give him credit for anything more than luck (out of desperation and lack of options) for picking him up. I give Omar slightly more credit for Tak since he is a rookie from Japan. Don't get me wrong, I love what both of them have done in the first half. But I have, especially in Dickey's case, more trepidation than confidence in them duplicating those numbers in the second half.

Ceetar Jul 14 2010 12:09 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

TransMonk wrote: I disagree. There was absolutely no indication that Dickey would perform to the level he has in 2010. His best ML season was last year for the Twinkies as a reliever when he pitched to a 4.62 ERA. I would need to know exactly what insight Omar had before I give him credit for anything more than luck (out of desperation and lack of options) for picking him up. I give Omar slightly more credit for Tak since he is a rookie from Japan. Don't get me wrong, I love what both of them have done in the first half. But I have, especially in Dickey's case, more trepidation than confidence in them duplicating those numbers in the second half. Yes, but who's to say Omar didn't realize Dickey could stick? Or the guy that's next that we haven't seen? Maybe Misch is actually decent? etc.

TransMonk Jul 14 2010 12:11 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Ceetar wrote: Yes, but who's to say Omar didn't realize Dickey could stick? Based on what?

Edgy DC Jul 14 2010 12:43 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

TransMonk wrote: I would need to know exactly what insight Omar had before I give him credit for anything more than luck (out of desperation and lack of options) for picking him up. Really? No credit at all? I'm certain these guys aren't throwing darts at the wall, but making very deliberate and sober decisions --- even about the longshots.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 14 2010 12:54 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Maybe, unlike us, he had minor-league depth to build, and, like us, he just thought a knuckler would be a fun, tasty way to do it. I'm actually simultaneously more hopeful and more fearful about Ridiculously Athletic... perhaps he collapses and we're flailing around with Ollie or Maine in a few weeks... or perhaps we've stumbled into a freshly-ripened Hough, at the start of his knuckling prime.

Ceetar Jul 14 2010 12:55 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

TransMonk wrote: Ceetar wrote: Yes, but who's to say Omar didn't realize Dickey could stick? Based on what? Uhh..how about signing him? And making him one of the first call ups? I don't have access to Omar's brain/scouting notes when they signed him. But I would assume they said more than "Throws Knuckleball cause it's all he's got. Mostly sucks. "

metirish Jul 14 2010 01:02 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: Yes, but who's to say Omar didn't realize Dickey could stick? Based on what? Uhh..how about signing him? And making him one of the first call ups? I don't have access to Omar's brain/scouting notes when they signed him. But I would assume they said more than "Throws Knuckleball cause it's all he's got. Mostly sucks. " Access to Omar's brain http://omarsbrain.wordpress.com/ not seeing anything about Dickey ...yet

Zvon Jul 14 2010 01:08 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: ... or perhaps we've stumbled into a freshly-ripened Hough, at the start of his knuckling prime. Oh my, I just got a woody.

TransMonk Jul 14 2010 01:08 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

I give Omar credit for picking up a cheap and disposable arm that he could throw against the wall when/if Maine/Ollie/Niese didn't work out. I don't find the signing any different than Tim Redding/Livan Hernandez/Jose Lima/Chan Ho Park/etc...Dickey ended up pitching spectacularly, and I'll give Dickey credit for that...but Omar has a history of having has-beens and never-weres waiting in the wings that rarely pan out the way Dickey has. Now, aside from whether Dickey's first half success was general management luck or general management genuis, my larger point is that it would be logical to expect Dickey's performance to trend back towards his 5+ career ERA at some point. I think it would be in the best interests of the team to add one more proven starter to combat that possibility.

Edgy DC Jul 14 2010 01:11 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

TransMonk wrote: ...but Omar has a history of having has-beens and never-weres waiting in the wings that rarely pan out the way Dickey has. And their failures should count against him just as much as Dickey's success should count for him. Of course he didn't know what Dickey would do --- else the guy would have been the opening day starter --- but he clearly had an idea of what he could do if circumstances aligned, and moved accordingly. All signings --- large and small --- are guesses and bets. Informed ones, yes, but they all need a leap of faith. And this was the scouting report he put his faith in, over maybe one-two dozen other retreads. Good for him.

TransMonk Jul 14 2010 01:17 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Edgy DC wrote: ...but he clearly had an idea of what he could do if circumstances aligned, and moved accordingly. All signings --- large and small --- are guesses and bets. Informed ones, yes, but they all need a leap of faith... And there is no luck involved in this?

Edgy DC Jul 14 2010 01:21 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Of course there is, but luck is the residue of design. Among my earliest statements above. The good luck in finding adequate replacements for Maine and Perez was hardly more than the luck in those two failing/hurting in the first place.

TransMonk Jul 14 2010 01:24 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

I can agree with that. I think the design is flawed and we need another starter.

Zvon Jul 14 2010 03:14 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

I'll say this right now, right here. Already the Mets have given me a season to remember. A season that has me sitting up in my seat and wanting to believe again. And the hope for more of the same in the second half. And, with the team we had coming out of the gate, and where we are now, at the halfway point, I couldn't ask for anything more.

Zvon Jul 14 2010 03:14 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

Oh, cept for maybe an arm.

duan Jul 14 2010 03:36 PM Re: Second Half Thoughts with David Lennon

funnily enough I think Omar's got a pretty good record of trawling through the bargain buckets for pitching gold, it's when he settles for 'lower risk' totally proven mediocrity that he's got burned.