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And then there were three ...

Frayed Knot Sep 29 2010 10:24 AM

With the Rox now dead -- that's what happens boys when you follow your 10 straight wins with a 4-10 stretch -- it's down three teams for two spots in the NL. Atlanta: 89-69 -- 4 games left: home vs Florida this afternoon then 3 home vs Philly Realistically they've got the best chance for the WC. To start with they've got a 1.5 game lead over SD plus SF & SD play each other for their final three games and the Braves have only to outlast one of them. But whatever they do they're going to have to do so without Martin Prado who was lost for the rest of the reg season AND post-season with a torn oblique muscle. San Fran -- 89-68 -- 5 games left: 2 hosting Arizona then 3 hosting SD A 2.0 game lead in the West, probably two wins in the final five would get them in as long as at least one is against the Padres Have held their opponent to 3 runs or less in 19 of the last 20 San Diego -- 87-70 -- 5 games left: 2 hosting Chicago, then 3 at SF Probably need both against the Cubs plus at least two from the Giants - and even then they might need help Other than that everything else is already decided except for the vastly overblown 'positioning' questions. - Philly has the #1 seed sewn up in the NL - In the AL, Minny is stumbling in the race for best record but is probably more worried about the health of Mauer & Morneau. - Texas is almost certainly 3rd ranked of the four but also has more immediate concerns with Josh Hamilton's ribs. - Which leaves the Yanx/Rays as the most interesting non-race race because the winner/loser probably means 1st seed vs 4th. Plus there's that whole humiliation factor thing we all love so much. Most YLDBs still haven't reconciled themselves to the fact that they actually have to stoop to pay attention to the likes of Tampa Bay much less lose the division to them. Yanx have one more in Toronto then finish with three in Fenway. Rays and their half-game buffer host Baltimore today in front of lots of trucked-in fans and then go to KC for four.

Gwreck Sep 29 2010 11:03 AM Re: And then there were three ...

I think Minnesota is more likely to beat the MFYs in the first round than Texas would be so hopefully Tampa will win the division.

HahnSolo Sep 29 2010 11:35 AM Re: And then there were three ...

Reds at 88-69 are in mix to finish with second seed. Second seed would play WC if it's Atlanta, they'd play the west champs if the WC comes out of the West. If they fall to 3rd seed and WC is Atlanta, they play the Phillies. West champ would face Braves.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2010 02:57 PM Re: And then there were three ...

Sandy Eggo lost 3 of 4 to the Cubs and are just about dead. Losing 3 of 4 to the Cubs should just about automatically make you dead and scoring 5 runs over 4 games will do that to you. It was Heath Bell, btw, who coughed up a late run yesterday in a 1-0 loss, their second 1-0 loss in the series. Pads now need to sweep the Giants in San Fran just to force an NL West tie **AND/OR** need to play this weekend at two games better than Atlanta to force a WC tie or three games better to take it outright. Gary pointed out last night how this is a similar position that the '99 Mets were in going into their last weekend, but the advantage those Mets had is that they were two games behind BOTH Cincy & Houston who were themselves fighting for the NL Central lead. IOW it's harder hoping that the Braves will fall on their faces this week in Philly than it is hoping that one team out of two will play poorly. Those Mets still had to sweep the Buccos, but while the Astros won two of three that weekend to keep themselves ahead of the sweeping Mets it was the Reds who stumbled against the awful Brewers (amid a lot of rain IIRC) which in turn forced game #163 (aka the Al & Edgardo show). Padres held that NL West lead for so long and look like they're going home on Sunday anyway.