Master Index of Archived Threads


2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Sep 28 2010 03:38 PM

Edgy DC wrote: He's certainly not a libablity. Let's not confuse average starters with average players --- or average players with hurtful ones. That said, he's a bit more of an "if" if we're counting strengths. (Albeit an "if" I feel better about than most other "if"s.)

MFS62 Oct 06 2010 10:01 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Just wondering. Jason Bay has played centerfield in the majors, so he has a decent srm (double figures in outfield assists a few years). I know his range has decreased, so CF wouldn't be a good thing at CitiField. But what about playing him in right field, with Duda in left? Beltran would start the season in center, with Pagan getting a lot of action as the 4th outfielder. And if Beltran couldn't make it/ was traded, Pagan would play center. I know. The organization will probably do the conservative thing and start Duda at AAA. But he showed me that he made enough adjustments by the end of the year that starting him with the big league club would be intriguing. Later

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 10:10 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

You're advocating displacing Angel Pagan --- a two-way threat and the most successful Met of 2010 --- for a guy who went .202 / .261 / .417 // .678, brings little defensively, and has two option years left?

MFS62 Oct 06 2010 10:25 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Mike Schmitt hit .196/.323/.373/.687 before his breakout year. I would love the Mets to catch lightning in a bottle like that one day, and I think Duda is the one who could do that. As I said, it probably wouldn't happen, and it really depends on the health of Bay and Beltran. Based on those results, Pagan might be a regular outfielder anyhow. Just trying to think out-of-the-box. Later

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 10:31 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Firstly, Mike Schmidt did that after he was already installed as a starter. They didn't take their best player out of the lineup to replace him with Schmidt based on those numbers. Secondly, that season is widely considered by many to be the worst full-time debut by a Hall-of-Famer. Certainly a Hall of Famer of his greatness. It's hardly a model to replicate.

metsmarathon Oct 06 2010 11:33 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

if i'm running the team, pagan is my starting centerfielder for 2011, regardless beltran's fate. well, unless beltran comes to spring training light and limber and loose and fast. but i'm not counting on his legs suddenly becoming younger. i'd go bay | pagan | beltran || carter | duda | evans | fmart | etc, if i were to live with the current roster. i expect that pagan can maintain a similar level of play. i expect better things of bay, as i'm hoping that he had the citi-heeby-jeebies. if i think beltran is really going to be unhealthy or unproductive, i look into a jason werth, but i really expect him to be way overpriced. i think the most important piece we need for the outfield is insurance. with a reasonably healthy beltran, i feel like we have three guys who could play any of hte three positions capably. but who steps up to fill in? is duda ready to be that guy? is fmart ever going to be that guy? does nick evans even have a chance? can we bear to give carter a glove?

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 11:38 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Don't fear the glove.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2010 11:46 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Fear Carter's glove (and arm). Be afraid. Be very afraid.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 06 2010 11:49 AM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

The arm's less horror-show, more loopy cartoon. It's giggle-worthy.

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 12:08 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

After a year of Francoeur and the best outfiled arm in the universe, living in fear of carrying a fourth outfielder/pinch hitter over his arm seems woefully counterproductive. You start him once or twice a week, hold your breath, get him out of there in late-inning defense situations, and accept that the one (at worst, two) game-costing disaster plays he makes per season are more than made up for with the bat. Starting the seaosn Bay, Pagan, and Beltran, with Evans and Carter in reserve is a perfectly cromulent plan (and probably would have gotten them further as the opening day squad in 2010). And Carter's certainly not eclipsed by any shadow cast by Duda's defense.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2010 12:40 PM Fragment

Not suggesting that Carter need be jettisoned entirely. But he is a train-wreck out there and needs to start as seldom as possible - like twice maybe thrice a month seldom. Maybe he can play 1B, I don't know. Jerry seemed to think that that was too risky; "too close to the ball" he claimed.

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 12:47 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Jerry was nuts.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2010 12:54 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Edgy DC wrote: Jerry was nuts. Mebbe. Like I said, we never got a chance to see for ourselves. He could be OK there for all I know. But virtually every ball that gets past him in the OF (particularly RF) is one extra base beyond what it would normally be and even the stuff hit at him is an extra base for whatever runners are on. I've never seen an arm (or lack thereof) like his. Bernie Williams would be a 1000% improvement.

Vic Sage Oct 06 2010 01:05 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

seawolf17 wrote: I'll always like Feliciano, but I think he's outlived his usefulness. Let some other team give him a Chad Bradford deal. ...but we're gonna have to pay somebody! viewtopic.php?f=1&t=13179&start=75

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 06 2010 01:05 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Frayed Knot wrote: I've never seen an arm (or lack thereof) like his. Bernie Williams would be a 1000% improvement. "A-hem." Also, Carter played more first base than anything else in the minors... by a country mile.

Vic Sage Oct 06 2010 01:11 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 06 2010 01:14 PM

Carter has just had an excellent year as a LHed PHer off the bench. Why are we bitching about what he can't do? He's got a role; let him do it. If you need to stick him at a corner OF or 1b for a game here or there, it won't be the apocalypse. I think him and Evans would make a good platoon of PHers/corner OFs/1bmen off the bench, with a supersub 25th man, who could play IF or OF, like Arias. I'm much more concerned about adding a SPer and a 2bman.

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 01:13 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Frayed Knot wrote: Bernie Williams would be a 1000% improvement. I diefintely want to see the data on this. Seriously, we have a player. Let him play. Jerry's reasoning that a guy who is a poor outfielder should be, by definition, kept away from first was absurd and did the team real harm with him avoiding Daniel Murphy until his backward-asssed principles exploded in his face with Jeromy Reed. I mean, Todd Hundley couldn't play left, so shouldn't catcher be "too close to the ball"? GUH!

metsmarathon Oct 06 2010 01:19 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

well, my only concern is that i'm wary of needing to have a 4th outfielder who can play half a season, if needed. i'm not willing to give carter's glove/arm that half season, i don't think. could we give it to a platoon of some combination of him, duda, evans, and fmart? maybe. i'm fine with carter as a lefty ph. i need a 4th outfielder. and jerry's an idiot.

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 01:33 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

If somebody gets hurt, Martinez or Duda arrives, and advances ahead of Carter if the defensive concerns turn out to be valid --- or perhaps even if they don't. Elementary.

Ashie62 Oct 06 2010 01:48 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Bay in LF Pagan in CF TBA in RF

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 02:02 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

What are you suggesting is going to become of Beltran? That's an $18.5 milion salary he's carrying around on those surgically repaired knees.

smg58 Oct 06 2010 03:14 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Duda doesn't strike me as having anything left to prove in the minors, and he did seem to adjust nicely. 10 extra-base hits in 84 AB's is excellent, and I'm sure singles would have come in time (and will come next year). Evans and Carter likewise have nothing left to prove in the minors, and if they just project as bench players, well that's two less roster spots to try and fill. I also think that if Fernando Martinez can stay healthy, everything else will fall into place quickly. But that's a big if until proven otherwise. Pagan is our best all-around outfielder right now, so benching him makes no sense. I think the window of opportunity for winning with Beltran has closed, and I'm not sure if the window for winning with Bay ever opened. I'd be content to free up some cash to spend elsewhere.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 06 2010 03:23 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Problem is, who's taking Beltran off your hands? Bay? Both have their trade value at perhaps career-low ebbs... and their salaries mean that they're unlikely to be claimed on waivers. In other words, we literally can't give either away.

seawolf17 Oct 06 2010 03:27 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I don't understand this "winning with" thing. It's the "rationale" for trading Wright/Reyes; we're "not going to win with those guys." Why the hell not? You're not getting anything for Beltran right now in trade. So wait until spring and see what you've got; you're not going to get less out of him -- in production or trade value -- than you got in 2010. Same deal with Bay. They're on the roster next year.

TransMonk Oct 06 2010 03:31 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I'm convinced that Beltran will be a Met in 2011...and I'm convinced that he should be. No team is going to give up anything of value for him concidering his contract. Depending on where we are next July and how well Beltran is doing, he could be moved at the 2011 deadline. I hope the new manager's first order of business in the spring is telling Carlos that he's playing rightfield.

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 03:46 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Duda doesn't strike me as having anything left to prove in the minors... See, I think there's plenty more he can prove in the minors. He can prove he can handle lefties as well as he does righties. He can prove he can consistently deal with good breaking pitches. He can refine his defense and baserunning. He can prove he can do it two years in a row. He can prove he's a grinder, a gamer, and a prince of a guy committed to leading his teammates to a great season for the glory of all the good citizens of greater Buffalo. They have five outfielders without options. If you find a deal you like for one of them, great. But I don't see kicking one of them to the curb on April 1 over Duda based on what he's done. It's not like the law of averages won't open a spot for him likely sooner rather than later. And unless you find a deal for one of those starters, he's going to be relegated to the bench. Now, dealing the starters: Bay and Beltran are expensive and coming off injury, so it's hardly likely the Mets are going to find a deal for one of them. So it's about dealing Pagan --- their best player in 2010 --- in order to make room for Duda. Better find me a sweet juicy pitcher there. But say you do. Then wonky-kneed Beltran is your only centerfielder, with Bay a nominal backup. You're going to have to carry another outfielder who can play center, so in order to accommodate Duda on April 1, you have to deal Pagan plus either Evans or Carter --- or sneak one of them through waivers. I say to let his time come.

Frayed Knot Oct 06 2010 04:59 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I agree. At 25 by ST, Duda's not young but neither is he particularly old and with only 300 AAA ABs under his belt it's not like another 1/2 year will cause him to rot down there. And there's enough that he can work on and/or refine that'll keep him busy. And maybe HE is part of trade bait over the winter. btw, if you type in 'DUDA' into the search at BBRef.com you get 7 additional entries in addition to Lucas (all minor leaguers) as well as one guy named Dudas. That's about 7 more than I expected as I expected that simple entry to take me directly to him.

Fman99 Oct 06 2010 06:33 PM Re: Projected 2011 Roster

Vic Sage wrote: Carter has just had an excellent year as a LHed PHer off the bench. Why are we bitching about what he can't do? He's got a role; let him do it. If you need to stick him at a corner OF or 1b for a game here or there, it won't be the apocalypse. I think him and Evans would make a good platoon of PHers/corner OFs/1bmen off the bench, with a supersub 25th man, who could play IF or OF, like Arias. This seems like a totally cromulent plan to me.

Rockin' Doc Oct 06 2010 06:44 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I'm okay with Bay in LF, Pagan in CF, and Beltran in RF. Let Duda, Carter, Evans, and Feliciano fight it out for the 4th OF spot and ph/roles. I'm more concerned about second base. I don't think Tejada is ready to be the starter. The Mets need to improve the offense offense and the most likely spot to add that with new personnel is at second base.

Ashie62 Oct 06 2010 07:13 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Edgy DC wrote: What are you suggesting is going to become of Beltran? That's an $18.5 milion salary he's carrying around on those surgically repaired knees. I did say RF is TBA. Who knows if Beltran will even be a Met in 2011

Edgy DC Oct 06 2010 07:31 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Well, I'd sure like to know what you think should happen, since you're painting him out of the picture.

Ashie62 Oct 08 2010 08:21 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I would like to see the new GM shop Beltran. If he can't Beltran is a Mets starter. If Beltran leaves I see three options. 1. Fernando Martinez 2. Doodah 3. Free Agent. Which option do I like? probably a little too early to say as the Mets need to hire some people.

HahnSolo Oct 08 2010 08:26 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Has Muffy permanently put away his outfield glove? Because I could see him being part of the mix as a jack-of-all-trades guy. And yeah his defense in LF left something to be desired, but we all saw that Duda and Carter each had their deficiencies as well.

TransMonk Oct 08 2010 08:31 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Ashie62 wrote: I would like to see the new GM shop Beltran. What do you realistically think we can get in return for Beltran who makes $18.5M next season and has not fully proven that he will continue to be the player that he was pre-injury?

Benjamin Grimm Oct 08 2010 08:37 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

If Beltran is healthy and productive, he can probably be traded to a contender next summer. Then again, if he's healthy and productive, then maybe the Mets will be a contender and they'll want to keep him. But I can't see anyone trading for him before he takes the field again, unless they're giving up a similarly questionable $18 million player.

seawolf17 Oct 08 2010 08:56 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If Beltran is healthy and productive, he can probably be traded to a contender next summer. Then again, if he's healthy and productive, then maybe the Mets will be a contender and they'll want to keep him. But I can't see anyone trading for him before he takes the field again, unless they're giving up a similarly questionable $18 million player. Exactly. And not for nothing, but his combined 2009-2010 line: 156 for 528 (.295), 17 HR, 75 RBI, 14-16 SB, 33 2B, 4 3B, .384 OBP/.470 SLG. That's a 130+ OPS. You're not going to get more than that out of another team's castoff OR Duda/Pagan/etc. Beltran could/should be the guy.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 08 2010 10:49 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I'm disappointed when I read that Pagan is regarded as perhaps, the best Met, or one of the best Mets, and a shoo-in for everyday outfielder. I see him as a platoon player whose PA's against left handed pitchers ougt to be kept to a minimum. He's ineffective as a RHB v. LHP, and thus, somewhat limited. He kinda sucks, actually as a RHB. Pagan shouldn't get most of those starts, and shouldn't be batting at the top of the lineup when he does start against LHP's. Here are his 2010 splits: Batting lefty v RHP: .300/.351/.436 Batting righty v LHP: .261/.298/.394 Pagan's 2010 splits are remarkably consistent with his career splits: CAREER: Batting lefty v RHP: .300/.351/.444 Batting righty v LHP: .251/.294/.414 As good as he is, his rate stats would be even better if he were platooned. A smart organization would be searching for a Tim Teufel to share PT with Pagan's Wally Backman.

Edgy DC Oct 08 2010 10:56 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Mabye, but that guy better be good, because Pagan's also their best defensive outfielder every day.

Edgy DC Oct 08 2010 10:59 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Checking that out, bb-ref.com has him with the ninth-best WAR in the National League and the second-best(!) Defensive WAR. Controversial, but impressive nonetheless.

seawolf17 Oct 08 2010 11:14 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

And Pagan is in his prime. I say trade him and get two good young players back.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 08 2010 11:44 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Edgy DC wrote: Mabye, but that guy better be good, because Pagan's also their best defensive outfielder every day. "That guy" doesn't have to be a better fielder than Pagan to justify his PT. He simply has to be a better overall player than Pagan against LHP's. I don't know where to find Pagan's WAR splits, but it's obvious that Pagan's overall WAR rate (War/some measure of playing time) is being dragged down by his inability to hit lefties. Anyways, as a matter of taste, I'm dead set against outfielders who can field but can't hit -- and that's essentially what Pagan is against lefties.

Edgy DC Oct 08 2010 11:50 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

I neither said nor implied that a platoon partner had to be a better fielder. Going by those numbers, people who fit that description is limited to one (Michael Bourne). And that's not among outfielders, but all players --- shorstops and catchers and such. And that's considering that he didn't spend all his days in center. Isn't it quite an oversimplificaton to reduce these numbers to him being a guy "who can field but can't hit"? Yeah, he, like everybody, should play until/unless they can get a better guy. But that better guy, even just against lefties, may be elusive. I don't think it's Nick Evans or anybody they have now.

86-Dreamer Oct 08 2010 11:50 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster) Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 08 2010 11:52 AM

batmagadanleadoff wrote: CAREER: Batting lefty v RHP: .300/.351/.444 Batting righty v LHP: .251/.294/.414 As good as he is, his rate stats would be even better if he were platooned. A smart organization would be searching for a Tim Teufel to share PT with Pagan's Wally Backman. Why go searching when you have this guy already at the league minimum: as RHB versus LHP: MLB 132 ABs: .322 / .379 / .512 2010 at Teufel A: .310 / .356 / .500

batmagadanleadoff Oct 08 2010 11:51 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Edgy DC wrote: I neither said nor implied that a platoon partner had to be a better fielder. . I know. Relax.

Edgy DC Oct 08 2010 11:52 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Pbbtttt.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 08 2010 12:25 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

86-Dreamer wrote: CAREER: Batting lefty v RHP: .300/.351/.444 Batting righty v LHP: .251/.294/.414 As good as he is, his rate stats would be even better if he were platooned. A smart organization would be searching for a Tim Teufel to share PT with Pagan's Wally Backman. Why go searching when you have this guy already at the league minimum: as RHB versus LHP: MLB 132 ABs: .322 / .379 / .512 2010 at Teufel A: .310 / .356 / .500 Whodat?

Ashie62 Oct 08 2010 12:51 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

TransMonk wrote: Ashie62 wrote: I would like to see the new GM shop Beltran. What do you realistically think we can get in return for Beltran who makes $18.5M next season and has not fully proven that he will continue to be the player that he was pre-injury? The sense of satisfaction to not be concerned about Beltran's availabiltiy may be worth the 14 Million lost by Wilpon, not me. Shit, he's used to losing anyway.

TransMonk Oct 08 2010 01:06 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Ashie62 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: The sense of satisfaction to not be concerned about Beltran's availabiltiy may be worth the 14 Million lost by Wilpon, not me. Shit, he's used to losing anyway. I'll let you take that to Fred.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 08 2010 01:34 PM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Yeah. Even if it was worth $14 million to no longer worry about Beltran getting hurt, is it worth $14 million to have to worry about the possibility that you'll be paying him all that money to hit 30 homers for some other team? If you're going to have to pay him anyway, it's better to keep him around and get whatever benefit you might get from his production. Vanis takee!

86-Dreamer Oct 11 2010 10:10 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: CAREER: Batting lefty v RHP: .300/.351/.444 Batting righty v LHP: .251/.294/.414 As good as he is, his rate stats would be even better if he were platooned. A smart organization would be searching for a Tim Teufel to share PT with Pagan's Wally Backman. Why go searching when you have this guy already at the league minimum: as RHB versus LHP: MLB 132 ABs: .322 / .379 / .512 2010 at Teufel A: .310 / .356 / .500 Whodat? Nick Evans

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 11 2010 10:16 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

Probably not a center fielder however. Evans seems to me to be the kinda player who'd flourish under Bobby Valentine.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 11 2010 10:37 AM Re: 2011 Outfield (split from 2011 Roster)

86-Dreamer wrote: 86-Dreamer wrote: CAREER: Batting lefty v RHP: .300/.351/.444 Batting righty v LHP: .251/.294/.414 As good as he is, his rate stats would be even better if he were platooned. A smart organization would be searching for a Tim Teufel to share PT with Pagan's Wally Backman. Why go searching when you have this guy already at the league minimum: as RHB versus LHP: MLB 132 ABs: .322 / .379 / .512 2010 at Teufel A: .310 / .356 / .500 Whodat? Nick Evans Vs. RHP: Bay-Pagan-Beltran Vs. LHP: Bay-Beltran-Evans? Okay, I can maybe see that.