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Predict the next President


Mike Huckabee 0 votes

Mitt Romney 1 votes

Sarah Palin 2 votes

Newt Gingrich 0 votes

Jeb Bush 0 votes

Ron Paul 0 votes

Other Republican 1 votes

Barack Obama 15 votes

Hillary Clinton 0 votes

Dennis Kucinich 0 votes

Other Democrat 0 votes

Jello Biafra 0 votes

Wayne Allen Root 0 votes

Michael Bloomberg 0 votes

Ralph Nader 1 votes

Other 3rd party or independent 0 votes

The world will end on Dec 21, 2012 so it doesn't matter 0 votes

Willets Point
Nov 08 2010 08:31 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 08 2010 09:12 AM

Now that the mid-term elections are over it's time to focus on the Presidential election in 2012. Pick one of the possible candidates above or write-in below. Note, you are picking who you think will win the election not who you would actually vote for yourself.

metirish
Nov 08 2010 08:38 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Obama , why you ask?

Because I don't see things going smoothly for the Republicans and I envision plenty of division among them going forward but Obama and the Dems as a party need to get their message out there to the masses.

TransMonk
Nov 08 2010 08:40 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Barack.

I'd support Jello making a run. Being a member of a band called the Dead Kennedys might be a problem for him though.

metsmarathon
Nov 08 2010 08:40 AM
Re: Predict the next President

well, even if the world ends in december, we should still know the results of the election before then, right?

or does the electoral confusion generated by a virtual four way tie between sarah palin, hillary clinton, ralph nader, and jimmy mcmillan trigger the end times, simultaneously stripping away our magnetosphere, inverting the crust, and splitting the earth's core in two?

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 08 2010 08:45 AM
Re: Predict the next President

My hunch is that the Republicans will end up nominating someone unelectable, like Palin, which will lead to Obama getting reelected.

In other words, I'm predicting his reelection not on his own merits (though I think he'll get a better turnout once it's his name on the ballot, unlike 2010) but on the weakness of his opponent.

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 08:45 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Willets Point wrote:
Now that the mid-term elections are over it's time to focus on the Presidential election in 2012.

I would dispute this point.

Really, the way they do this is always looking backwards. Like when the trials for US Track and Field team comes around, they tell you all about the guy or gal who qualified four years ago, focus focus focus on them, and when somebody else wins, they run to the one they've been focusing on and ask what happened. The true nominee may not have emerged yet.

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 08 2010 08:50 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Well, not quite yet, anyway. We may have another seven or eight weeks before it gets started. But sometime in January, there will be Republican candidates visiting diners and homes in Iowa and New Hampshire. and it will build steam from there.

Willets Point
Nov 08 2010 08:50 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Edgy DC wrote:
Willets Point wrote:
Now that the mid-term elections are over it's time to focus on the Presidential election in 2012.

I would dispute this point.


I would too. I wrote a crappy opening sentence. What I really want to know is who do you think will win as of today. The poll runs seven days.

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 08:57 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Obama's the clear favorite. Based on position, he's the smart bet at this point.

But the game is yet to be played out. All sorts of follks may yet emerge that the media isn't focusing on: Paul Ryan, Michael Bloomberg, Stanley McChrystal, John Stewart, Roger Staubach, Tom Selleck, Patrick Kennedy, Bobby Valentine...

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 08 2010 09:02 AM
Re: Predict the next President

I'm skeptical of the Bammer winning again. Not his fault entirely, but anyone presiding over the USA with 10% unemployment for what would prolly be the majority of his term probably has a whuppin' coming.

metsmarathon
Nov 08 2010 09:11 AM
Re: Predict the next President

i wouldn't be surprised if an independent won the damned thing. i don't know who, yet, but there's a whole country-full of people out there who are, i imagine, none too thrilled with either party, and need a good sturdy wagon to jump aboard.

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 09:19 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Bill Gates, Lamar Alexander, Christie McNichol, Phil Graham, Lindsay Buckingham, Tim Pawlenty, Tony F. Tancredo, Bill Cosby, E.D. Hirsch, Max Baucus, Peter Ueberroth, Condeleeza Rice, Joe Torre, Sanjay Gupta, Duncan Hunter, Whoopie Goldberg, Rudy Giuliani, Martin O'Malley, Jan Brewer (she'll make you miss Sarah Palin), Ron Reagan, Haley Barbour, Pat DiNizio, John Hall, Linda Lingle, Steve Jobs, Steve Case, Nell Newman, Sam Brownback, Bob Casey, Jr., Olympia Snowe, Olympia Dukakis, Tim Allen, George Allen, Allen Embry, Jeff Bezos, Mike Beebe, Bobby Jindal.

metirish
Nov 08 2010 09:22 AM
Re: Predict the next President

I needed to vote again, see how it is?, even this poll is corrupt.......who knew that polling by a Sullivan from Boston would be corrupt?

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 09:25 AM
Re: Predict the next President

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote:
I'm skeptical of the Bammer winning again. Not his fault entirely, but anyone presiding over the USA with 10% unemployment for what would prolly be the majority of his term probably has a whuppin' coming.

Nonetheless, the sitting eligible president is almost always the favorite. Bush won re-election with a war-fatigued country. so did Nixon. America threw Truman's Congressional majoirty out but sent him back. Did the same with Clinton. Being president may mean a good bunch of America hates you and blames you, but it's still the most usefful qualification to become president again.

Willets Point
Nov 08 2010 09:30 AM
Re: Predict the next President

metirish wrote:
I needed to vote again, see how it is?, even this poll is corrupt.......who knew that polling by a Sullivan from Boston would be corrupt?


I left out Ron Paul (who could run on a ticket with Rand). Apparently editing the poll erases the votes.

Frayed Knot
Nov 08 2010 12:14 PM
Re: Predict the next President

The smart money says to bet on the incumbent but that doesn't always work either.
* LBJ read the tea-leaves and got out before technically entering the race. Gerald Asterisk Ford didn't win his try, nor did successor Carter or, later on, Bush I
* Nixon did but famously didn't finish his 2nd. Reagan did, as did Clinton & Bush II

So it's kind of 50/50 over the last 50 years.
The ones who did win a second all won by larger margins then they carried in their initial try; Nixon & Reagan by large margins, Clinton & GW Bush much less so.


The obvious parallel for Obama is Clinton just based on the mid-term drubbing and the similar rhetoric from the other side.
- I think what Barack has against him is that, while he might have been a great campaigner, he's not the politician Clinton is/was and he's not as likely to morph himself according to the prevailing wind. Plus, if he and the leaders of his party in Congress are going to insist that their current problems are merely of communication and not substance then a bounce-back is less likely.
- What he has going for him is that while the GOP might look strong in numbers right now it's also kind of leader-less in that there's no one person to rally around. They have the in-house leaders (Boehner, McConnell), the new-turk voices (Ryan, Cantor, Bachmann, Rubio?, Paul?), the outsider voices (Limbaugh, O'Reilly), the old guard (Armey, Gingrich), plus Mama Twitter Bear, but not one who is the obvious choice as front man including the also-rans from last time (Romney, Huckabee et al).

Basically all this verbiage in response to what was a simple poll question is just me thinking out loud as I contemplate the situation and is my long-winded way of saying I have no fuckin' idea.
I think that if BHO is to be un-seated if might have to come from someone kind of like where he was a few years before his own election: a not largely known name who will energize his/her party's base without bringing a lot of baggage along because I'm not sure any of the obvious Republicans have enough stuff to win against even a wounded incumbent.

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 12:18 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Frayed Knot wrote:
The smart money says to bet on the incumbent but that doesn't always work either.
* LBJ read the tea-leaves and got out before technically entering the race. Gerald Asterisk Ford didn't win his try, nor did successor Carter or, later on, Bush I
* Nixon did but famously didn't finish his 2nd. Reagan did, as did Clinton & Bush II

So it's kind of 50/50 over the last 50 years.
The ones who did win a second all won by larger margins then they carried in their initial try; Nixon & Reagan by large margins, Clinton & GW Bush much less so.

Yeah, but we're not talking about betting for the incumbent against the field or against his eventual major party incumbent. We're talking about betting for the incumbent against any other individual two years out. That's just a no-brainer.

Frayed Knot
Nov 08 2010 12:25 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Oh no question Barack is the smart money against any other single individual.
But, still, to click the Obama choice you are picking him against the field - especially since 'Other Republican' is one of the choices.

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 12:27 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Well, nobody's picked "other republican."

metsguyinmichigan
Nov 08 2010 12:30 PM
Re: Predict the next President

I think the key will be whether we see a primary within the Democratic party. If so, it will be difficult for Obama. He'd win the primary, but would be wounded.

Look for a Romney/Rubio ticket.

Ceetar
Nov 08 2010 12:51 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Back to the Future II suggests it'll be a female winner next time right?

TransMonk
Nov 08 2010 01:18 PM
Re: Predict the next President

2012 is the first election I am old enough to be elected president, so I officially announce my candidacy.

Frayed Knot
Nov 08 2010 02:11 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Edgy DC wrote:
Well, nobody's picked "other republican."


Well in that case I'll pretend it was never offered as one of the options and renounce my entire post.

Ashie62
Nov 08 2010 02:26 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Baracks toughest test could come from within his own party.

Frayed Knot
Nov 08 2010 02:33 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Baracks toughest test could come from within his own party.


Which leads to the obvious question of: Who? -- or at least, if not Hillary, then who?

It's a risky & potentially party-fracturing move if someone does try it.
Also logic says it'll be someone from more towards the center but who's that? Leiberman? Kerrey (the Nebraska one)?

metirish
Nov 08 2010 02:34 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Corey Booker

HahnSolo
Nov 08 2010 02:49 PM
Re: Predict the next President

metirish wrote:
Corey Booker


I'll be watching the Paddy Power odds closely.

Ashie62
Nov 08 2010 02:57 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Baracks toughest test could come from within his own party.


Which leads to the obvious question of: Who? -- or at least, if not Hillary, then who?

It's a risky & potentially party-fracturing move if someone does try it.
Also logic says it'll be someone from more towards the center but who's that? Leiberman? Kerrey (the Nebraska one)?


Charles Schumer

metsguyinmichigan
Nov 08 2010 03:34 PM
Re: Predict the next President

I don't think Schumer plays too well outside the East Coast. Midwestern Dems seem to do better nationally.

Edgy DC
Nov 08 2010 06:02 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Schumer is about as loyal to the party as they come. He'd certainly not do it.

Don't expect a serious challenge from inside the party. Things could change, but I doubt it.

Big fat no way on Bob Kerrey.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Nov 08 2010 06:35 PM
Re: Predict the next President

Baracks toughest test could come from within his own party.


Which leads to the obvious question of: Who? -- or at least, if not Hillary, then who?

It's a risky & potentially party-fracturing move if someone does try it.
Also logic says it'll be someone from more towards the center but who's that? Leiberman? Kerrey (the Nebraska one)?


Those who know things all seem to think Russ Feingold's campaign began on November 3.

TransMonk
Nov 09 2010 07:46 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Those who know things all seem to think Russ Feingold's campaign began on November 3.

I've heard nothing of this. In fact the opposite:

On Wednesday Feingold spokesperson John Kraus told Politico Feingold would not run for president against Barack Obama in 2012.

http://www.dailycardinal.com/news/feing ... -1.1748192

Although, I'd support the shit out of him...

Valadius
Nov 09 2010 08:33 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Feingold may well run in 2012 for Herb Kohl's seat, as Kohl looks less likely to run for re-election.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
Nov 09 2010 10:19 AM
Re: Predict the next President

Nader? Really?

Ashie62
Nov 10 2010 12:33 PM
Re: Predict the next President

George Pataki?

[url]http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/11/09/former-new-york-gov-pataki-weighing-2012-white-house-bid/?icid=main%7Chtmlws-main-n%7Cdl1%7Csec4_lnk2%7C183327