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Let's Talk Strategy

metirish Nov 24 2010 08:03 AM

Do managers change or is it a case of "you are what you are" , does league , park and team you have come in to the equation(I would think so). Mark Simon breaks down Collins in his last NL stint How Collins handled an NL offense Statistically speaking, what can we glean from a snapshot glance of the lone National League team that Terry Collins previously managed, the 1994 to 1996 Houston Astros? Let’s take a look at the characteristics of his offenses then because the Mets offense has been an issue since the team moved to Citi Field, and at least has the potential to change for the better if Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran can both give the Mets full, healthy seasons. Collins has done the big ballpark thing before The Astrodome, for those who remember it, was a cavern much like the 2009-2010 versions of Citi Field, so a common bond exists in how Collins could try to do things. In Collins’ three years as Astros manager, there were 325 home runs hit there. The only ballpark with fewer was Dodger Stadium with 317. The Astros hit the third-fewest home runs at home (158) of any team and allowed the second-fewest (167). The Astrodome park factor (meaning teams played there as compared to the road) rated in the low-to-mid-90s in all three seasons with Collins managing, an indication of a park that was highly pitcher-friendly. And his teams managed to score runs Even in a big ballpark, the Astros put runs on the board. Under Collins, Houston scored the third-most runs in the National League in total over those three seasons, and the third-most runs of any team in its home ballpark. This is something that the Mets could benefit from. How’d the Astros do that? Keep reading Speed was a factor To counter the size of the ballpark, the Astros were heavily reliant on stolen bases, just as the Mets have been the last two years. The last major league team to have five players with 20 or more steals? Collins’ 1996 Astros, and the last before them was Collins’ 1995 team. It’s also important to note that Collins’ teams weren’t reckless in their base stealing. All five players with 20+ steals on the 1995 Astros were successful 75 percent of the time or more. On the 1996 squad, that was true for all but James Mouton (21 steals, 70 percent successful). For those three years under Collins, the Astros were the third-most successful stealing team in baseball, swiping a tied-for-major-league best 480 bases at a 74.1 percent rate. So was bunting, at least sometimes Collins acknowledged a willingness to bunt in his introductory press conference, which probably caught some Mets fans, who figure the “Moneyball Mets” won’t bunt as often as last year’s team (which had the fifth-most in the NL), by surprise. The Astros successfully sacrificed 219 times under Collins, third-most in the National League, though it appears Collins eschewed the bunt over time. The Astros had 73 sacrifice bunts in the shortened 1994 season, the most in baseball (they were on pace for 103). The next season, they finished with 78 in a 144-game season (full-season pace of 88), which rated fourth-most. In 1996, it looks like there may have been an adjustment. The Astros finished 10th in the NL with 68 sacrifices. And walks mean something The bunting notes may run counter to what we surmise Sandy Alderson’s team philosophy will be, but he’ll like the importance that Collins’ teams placed on the walk in those three seasons. The Mets ranked 12th in the National League in walks last year, so there’s room for improvement. The Astros ranked first in the NL in total walks and second in the league in unintentional walks from 1994 to 1996. That allowed a team like the 1996 Astros to finish seventh in the NL in batting average, but third in on-base percentage. That was partly a product of the high walk totals (and ridiculously good offensive seasons) for Jeff Bagwell, but also due to the performance of role players like ex-Met outfielders Kevin Bass (28 walks, 235 PA, .393 OBP in 1994) and John Cangelosi (48 walks, 256 PA .457 OBP in 1995; 44 walks, 313 PA, .378 OBP in 1996). --- Collins spoke a lot of how he changed on Thursday, and that was mostly related to his personality and attitude. Will it apply to his National League managing philosophy as well? We won’t know that for another five months. http://proxy.espn.go.com/blog/new-york/ ... nl-offense

Ceetar Nov 24 2010 08:17 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

I don't know how much to buy into what happened 15 years ago as a benchmark for next year. (I feel the same way about Alderson for that matter) I'm okay if he bunts occasionally if he feels the situation dictates it, not that he seems to get off on it. I didn't look at it last year, but I remember looking at the Mets SB statistics and i felt like Manuel's team was much less aggressive, much less "Put the pressure on the pitcher/defense" as Collins stated. Part of that could be Reyes being hurt, but in '06'07 you even had guys like Shawn Green and Orlando Hernandez being nuisances on the bases at times. I would like to see them push the envelope in this regard, as Collins stated in his interviews. First to third, second to home. It's amazing how many bad throws you see in the major leagues. Also, Hale proved himself a good reader of when to send a runner, which can help in this regard. As Collins stated 'fundamentals' i hope this means that the Mets are aggressive defensively as well, in trying to cut off that first to third type attitude. The biggest (maybe only?) thing I liked about Frenchy is that he was threatening out there. As a runner you even had to think about taking a turn at first base on a single,because he'd throw behind you. The walks thing is hopefully one they improve upon. David Wright's approach at the plate in terms of what to swing at in what counts, when to attack early and when to lay off, has seemingly gotten worse. Hopefully a new regime fixes that and they have a better idea of what they're doing at the plate.

HahnSolo Nov 24 2010 08:45 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

I would think the Mets would improve in their walk total just by virtue of the fact that 714 PAs will not be going to Barajas and Francoeur.

Ceetar Nov 24 2010 08:48 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

HahnSolo wrote: I would think the Mets would improve in their walk total just by virtue of the fact that 714 PAs will not be going to Barajas and Francoeur. on the flip side, Murphy instead of Castillo probably walks less.

HahnSolo Nov 24 2010 08:50 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

^^ Agreed, though I don't think last year was a great BB season for Luis.

Ceetar Nov 24 2010 08:54 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

HahnSolo wrote: ^^ Agreed, though I don't think last year was a great BB season for Luis. And there were a lot of non-walking AB from Cora and Tejada as well. really though, just a better approach at the plate, and maybe a more unified approach? I've always felt like Castillo had a different approach than the rest of the team (usually patient versus aggressive) and no one bothered try to get them on the same page at the same time.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 24 2010 08:57 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

You're proposing that they shoulda asked Francouer to hit like Castillo?

Ceetar Nov 24 2010 09:10 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

batmagadanleadoff wrote: You're proposing that they shoulda asked Francouer to hit like Castillo? I'd prefer Frenchy could've hit..period..but that's different. Just overall philosophy. Reyes and Wright would go up there hacking with a jump on the first pitch and be aggressive sorta attitude, and then Castillo would just take pitches and let the guy get away with mistakes. and on the flip side, Castillo would be patient and work a walk when a pitcher is missing the strike zone, and the guys after him would jump on the first pitch and let the pitcher get ahead or make out. It just seemed like they were reading different scouting reports.

Edgy DC Nov 24 2010 10:08 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

I think they were plenty of aggressive last year on the bases when they had the opportunity. It's just: 1) Their eschewing of the walk drained the team of opportunities; 2) Their love of the bunt drained the team of opportuinnties; 3) They got burned a few times. Maybe more than a few. They were playing from behind a lot. Jerry just ran a poorly conceived offense.

metsmarathon Nov 24 2010 12:20 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

batmagadanleadoff wrote: You're proposing that they shoulda asked Francouer to hit like Castillo? frenchy had a 0.245 eqAVG, per baseball prospectus, to castillo's 0.241 he had a 0.287 wOBA compared to 0.285 if frenchy had hit exactly like castillo, there'd have been not too much dropoff, really. if he had the same or even similar approach, with his increased power capability, his production should've exceeded it nicely.

Edgy DC Nov 24 2010 12:22 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

But Frenchmas got run out there day after day after day and Castillo lived in the doghouse.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 24 2010 12:48 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

Once the 2010 season was lost, I might've messed with my squad, (if it was me in charge) by asking Francoeur to hit like Castillo, while secretly demanding from Castillo that he hit like Francoeur. But eventually I woulda figured it out for myself that the best strategy would be to ask everybody to hit like Ted Williams.

Ceetar Nov 24 2010 01:26 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Once the 2010 season was lost, I might've messed with my squad, (if it was me in charge) by asking Francoeur to hit like Castillo, while secretly demanding from Castillo that he hit like Francoeur. But eventually I woulda figured it out for myself that the best strategy would be to ask everybody to hit like Ted Williams. The big mistake was asking K-Rod to hit like Mike Tyson.

metsmarathon Nov 24 2010 02:00 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

the bigger mistake was in not asking his father in law to hit like buster douglas.

metirish Dec 06 2010 02:47 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

Collins Q & A http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/p ... ollins-q-a

metirish Dec 06 2010 03:04 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

I'm liking what Collins has to say about bullpen usage.

metirish Jan 16 2011 08:28 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

Collins has said that this is his lineup http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/p ... ing-on-tap Terry Collins plans the following lineup, and pledges not to have major day-to-day adjustments Jose Reyes Angel Pagan David Wright Carlos Beltran Jason Bay Ike Davis The Nos. 7 and 8 spots will go to the second baseman and catcher, depending on whom is playing those days Collins confirmed that configuration, which he has floated in the past, during a visit to Port St. Lucie by the Post .

Ceetar Jan 16 2011 08:35 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

metirish wrote: Collins has said that this is his lineup http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/p ... ing-on-tap Terry Collins plans the following lineup, and pledges not to have major day-to-day adjustments Jose Reyes Angel Pagan David Wright Carlos Beltran Jason Bay Ike Davis The Nos. 7 and 8 spots will go to the second baseman and catcher, depending on whom is playing those days Collins confirmed that configuration, which he has floated in the past, during a visit to Port St. Lucie by the Post . worst kept secret ever. the lineup pretty much makes itself this way imo.

Edgy DC Jan 16 2011 12:08 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

In a world without egos, I'd flop Pagan and Reyes (and maybe bat Castillo ninth), but if I"m Collins, I play it no other way.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 16 2011 12:16 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

But even in a world full of egos, I'd bat Pagan no higher than sixth (if at all) if a lefty was starting against the Mets.

metirish Jan 16 2011 12:38 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

It would be nice to have a # 3 hitter too and push said lineup down a notch.

Gwreck Jan 16 2011 01:59 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

batmagadanleadoff wrote: But even in a world full of egos, I'd bat Pagan no higher than sixth (if at all) if a lefty was starting against the Mets. I'd like to try giving Nick Evans some of those ABs if there was a lefty starter.

metsguyinmichigan Jan 16 2011 08:05 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

metirish wrote: Terry Collins plans the following lineup, and pledges not to have major day-to-day adjustments Jose Reyes Angel Pagan David Wright Carlos Beltran Jason Bay Ike Davis The Nos. 7 and 8 spots will go to the second baseman and catcher, depending on whom is playing those days Collins confirmed that configuration, which he has floated in the past, during a visit to Port St. Lucie by the Post . Castillo: "Cough, cough. Ah, you know I'm still here, right?" Luis, this would be known as "a bad sign."

Edgy DC Jan 16 2011 08:15 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

Well, I think it's no secret that the Mets haven't committed to him as theeir 2011 secondbaseman, or that he'd bat at the end of the lineup if he was to win back his starting job.

metirish Jan 19 2011 11:47 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

Collins names Pelfrey his Opening day starter........no surprise there......

Ceetar Jan 19 2011 11:53 AM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

metirish wrote: Collins names Pelfrey his Opening day starter........no surprise there...... Which means game 7, the Home Opener (which for some reason the wife thinks I shouldn't take a half day for..) likely goes to the #2, Dickey.

metirish Jan 19 2011 12:01 PM Re: Let's Talk Strategy

Ceetar wrote: metirish wrote: Collins names Pelfrey his Opening day starter........no surprise there...... Which means game 7, the Home Opener (which for some reason the wife thinks I shouldn't take a half day for..) likely goes to the #2, Dickey. I'd be happy with that, and I am sure you would be too.