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Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Edgy MD Jan 03 2011 08:49 AM

Our insanely popular series, which alphabetically looks into the future of Mets players, moves past the Manny A.'s and toward the left field warning track Pos: LF Born: 9/20/1978 in Trail, British Columbia, Canada (32 in 2011) Acquired: Signed as a free agent from the Red Sox, 12/29/2009. (four years, $66 million, and a $17M club option in 2014, with a a$3M buyout) 2010 Stats: G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BB-R WAR FG WAR 95 401 348 48 90 20 6 6 47 10 0 44 91 .259 .347 .402 .749 105 140 7 5 0 4 3 1.1 1.4 (Check out those McReynoldsian stolen base numbers.) Last Word: Last seen joking about the effects of his concussion, Bay is of course looking forward to a year of renewal and claims to be super-fully recovered. Bloggers are going back and forth on whether CitiField's dimensions are part of his issues (don't believe it). If you want more on where he's at, then listen to his chat with Kevin Burkhardt while draped in the creamy home whites, and try to avoid reading the comments below. What do you expect of Jason Bay in 2011?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 03 2011 08:53 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

28-33 HRs, 10-15 steals at a nice rate, OPS approaching .900 (with .380 or so in OBP). Clear head. Almost-absurdly polite clubhouse demeanor. Do Terry Collins teams run? I wonder whether the Mets will see something of a downturn in SB numbers, if only because the light was so very green under both Willie and Jerry.

Ceetar Jan 03 2011 09:01 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: 28-33 HRs, 10-15 steals at a nice rate, OPS approaching .900 (with .380 or so in OBP). Clear head. Almost-absurdly polite clubhouse demeanor. Do Terry Collins teams run? I wonder whether the Mets will see something of a downturn in SB numbers, if only because the light was so very green under both Willie and Jerry. Was the light so green with jerry? Obviously a lot of the numbers are off with Reyes out much of 2009, but I feel like they weren't running enough, or smart enough, with him. The team, particularly in 2006, was smart aggressive but felt reckless with jerry. (especially David Wright's success rate. I'm going to have to look more closely at these numbers when I have a moment) I remember a lot more dancing around on the bases too that sseemed to fall to the wayside. With Reyes and Pagan, and then Wright (if Castillo stays, he'd fit into the secondary tier as well) plus 'smart' base stealers in Bay and Beltran who won't steal 30 but will take advantage where they can, you'd have to think/hope that the Mets make use of that speed. I expect a good year out of Bay. I expect if he'd finished the season he would've finished stronger too, but coming to camp being comfortable and having a lot of that 'get t oknow you' stuff out of the way can't hurt can it?

Benjamin Grimm Jan 03 2011 09:05 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

I'll say about 25 home runs, and 90 runs batted in.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jan 03 2011 09:06 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

I think Reyes' absence DEFINITELY skews those numbers. Healthy, he steals more bases than a handful of teams. Plus, look at what guys like Bay, Pagan and Wright did last year.

seawolf17 Jan 03 2011 09:09 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

I expect McReynoldsian numbers as well.

TransMonk Jan 03 2011 09:23 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'll say about 25 home runs, and 90 runs batted in. I'll second this with a .275 average thrown in.

attgig Jan 03 2011 09:53 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

the quesiton about terry collins running is an interesting one. This is kind of the whole moneyball philosophy coming down from up top. Sandy said he'd pick a manager that carries out the philosophy of the front office. and with depodesta and ricardi, he has guys who anti-moneyball will accuse of never stealing.... I'll be very interested to see if the mets run as much as they have in the past. I'd love to see guys like joe morgan be perplexed as to how much the mets run when it's run by moneyball guys. but we'll see.

TransMonk Jan 03 2011 10:03 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/11/28/ ... tendencies Amazing Avenue wrote: In-Game Tactics Terry Collins loved himself some small ball. He was almost always considerably above average in both sacrifice hits and in attempted stolen bases. The difference between his tenure in Houston and the one in Anaheim was that in Houston, Collins had a relatively young team who cold run which he did not have in Anaheim. He realized this in his second season as the manager of the Angels and adapted, which culminated in his first below average year in attempted stolen bases as a manager. It wasn't a small margin either, the Angels ran 20% less than the league average in 1998. While in the National League, Collins was always above average in deploying the hit and run. I don't know if this had to do with him changing leagues or if he simply understood its stupidity, but in 1997-98 Collins stopped issuing intentional walks. All in all, Collins looks like a manager who adjusts to his environment. If the environment dictated to stop stealing bases, he stopped stealing bases. This is a very important factor when judging a manager. There are some managers, like Dusty Baker, who never seem to adjust to the situation at hand and use their strategies as if they were guidelines to success. So despite Collins fondness of small ball strategies, he'll hopefully adjust to the Mets and to Sandy Alderson's expectation of the contrary. (Bullpen usage was excluded because I could not control for context and it mostly has to do with the personnel at hand. If you had a good pitching staff, you didn't go to the bullpen as frequently. What I do know is that Collins was around average in bullpen usage and had an almost exactly average pitching staff. His starters averaged around 6.5 innings per start which would be a very high figure today but I do not know how that number was looked upon in the '90's.)

Edgy MD Jan 03 2011 10:04 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Eddie Collins stole bases. Terry Collins will steal bases. One thing sabermetrics is suggests for managers is letting players play their games and not overusing managerial tactics to the point where you're forcing players into a system that doesn't suit their games. In his prior places of employment, he was above average in stolen base attempts and (sorry to say) bunt attempts. His own testimony states that he'll run but he'll try to keep the running reponsible and high-percentage. That suggests that Bay should get his modest chances.

Edgy MD Jan 03 2011 10:05 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Amazin' Avenue, yes, is a source of mine.

seawolf17 Jan 03 2011 10:06 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Dave Collins: Stolen Bases 1980 NL 79 (3rd) 1981 NL 26 (4th) 1984 AL 60 (2nd) 1985 AL 29 (10th) Career 395 (73rd)

metirish Jan 03 2011 10:10 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Bay will lead the team in homers this season and runs batted in.....

TransMonk Jan 03 2011 10:12 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

metirish wrote: Bay will lead the team in homers this season and runs batted in..... That could be good or bad.

Mets Guy in Michigan Jan 03 2011 12:16 PM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

All-star! Not a starter, but I think he's going to have a great year and be one of our brightest lights.

attgig Jan 03 2011 12:20 PM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

156 games played 27 hr. 99rbi 14sb 1cs .284 ba .366 obp .490 slg Nobody will complain about his defense. His home/road splits will show a slight favor of road parks but only because 8 of his 27 home runs come in Yankee stadium and citizens bank park, with multi homerun games against cliff lee and cc sabathia.

Fman99 Jan 03 2011 06:53 PM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

.363 BA, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 22 SB, 1 baby rescued from towering inferno, millions of women impregnated simply by witnessing his sheer awesomeness.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 04 2011 07:35 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

I'm pessimistic. His problem IMO wasn't the stadium so much as a slow bat. He ought to have a better year, but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic. I'm calling for a 5% performance improvement (OPS/OPS+ 787/111) and 150 more turns at-bat.

MFS62 Jan 04 2011 08:19 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Fman99 wrote: .363 BA, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 22 SB, 1 baby rescued from towering inferno, millions of women impregnated simply by witnessing his sheer awesomeness. Careful there, Fman. There's only room for one Derek Jeter in town. I go for the McReynolds comparison, too. He'll overcome his Citi-itis, just as David did, in his second year there. Later

Vic Sage Jan 04 2011 09:40 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

yeah but David's correction came at age 27, a hitter's peak. Bay is 32, turning 33 next season. And I saw a slow bat, even before he rang his bell. The McReynolds comps are apt, i think. And if you look at what the Little Rock Slacker did at a similar point in his career, it was around .260-.270ba / 15-25hr / 75-85 rbi That sounds about right to me for Mr. Bay, as well, with maybe a few more RBI if Beltran and Wright have good years ahead of him.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 13 2011 04:00 PM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

To: Anyone who's been paying more attention than I have Re: Jason Bay How's he been doing this spring? Any reasons for optimism yet?

TransMonk Mar 13 2011 04:06 PM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Through 3/12/11: 24 AB, 2 R, 7 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 10 K, 0 SB, .292/.292/.333/.625

Fman99 Mar 13 2011 08:08 PM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

How 2010 of him. Hitting a lot of singles and plating no one. Fuckity fuck fuck. It's still only mid-March. He's got time to warm up.

El Segundo Escupidor Mar 14 2011 12:25 AM Re: Expectations for Eleven: Jason Bay

Fman99 wrote: .363 BA, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 22 SB, 1 baby rescued from towering inferno, millions of women impregnated simply by witnessing his sheer awesomeness. Christ, somebody took their happy pills this morning.... Vic Sage wrote: And if you look at what the Little Rock Slacker did [...]. ...and somebody took their grumpy pills. I agree more with the latter; OPS+ 114.

seawolf17 Mar 29 2011 09:25 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL.

Ceetar Mar 29 2011 09:29 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL. *mutters lots of swear words* Why don't these guys have the decency to work out there little strains in February, not days before the games count?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 29 2011 09:30 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL. Jesus Christmas. What a complete fucking bust

Edgy MD Mar 29 2011 09:32 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Ceetar wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL. *mutters lots of swear words* Why don't these guys have the decency to work out there little strains in February, not days before the games count? Or maybe come clean with the trainer before Nick Evans is put on waivers.

attgig Mar 29 2011 09:35 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

who was the genius to put evans on waivers before the start of the season?

Ceetar Mar 29 2011 09:35 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Edgy DC wrote: Ceetar wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Bay out with a strained ribcage. Possible DL. *mutters lots of swear words* Why don't these guys have the decency to work out there little strains in February, not days before the games count? Or maybe come clean with the trainer before Nick Evans is put on waivers. They said he pulled it during BP today right?

Benjamin Grimm Mar 29 2011 09:41 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

The waivers on Evans are revokeable, right?

themetfairy Mar 29 2011 09:43 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Already? He's injured already?!?!?!

Ceetar Mar 29 2011 09:45 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The waivers on Evans are revokeable, right? if you revoke them, you cant put him on waivers again. They'll know by 1pm if he clears. Which probably means everyone but like the Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox have passed on him.

smg58 Mar 29 2011 10:32 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

I believe they have 48 hours from putting Evans on the wire to take him off. Whether that would leave them enough time to make a firm decision on Bay is anybody's guess.

Ashie62 Mar 29 2011 10:55 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Is Fernando Martinez an LF option???

Edgy MD Mar 29 2011 11:04 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Certainly, but I think --- if Bay goes on the DL --- the first instinct would be to rescue Evans from the wire. His profile even resembles Bay's more.

metirish Mar 29 2011 11:25 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Granted I hare not watched more than an inning of ST games but Martinez seems to have flown under my radar completely, how was his spring?

Ceetar Mar 29 2011 11:34 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Edgy DC wrote: Certainly, but I think --- if Bay goes on the DL --- the first instinct would be to rescue Evans from the wire. His profile even resembles Bay's more. Well, according to the reports I saw, 1pm was the deadline so he's no longer on waivers.

Edgy MD Mar 29 2011 11:34 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

On Martinez: A spring breifer than expected (by me, anyhow), but productive: .364 / .481 / .591 // 1.072 in 27 PAs. Nice homer in the spring opener: http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/articl ... p&c_id=nym

G-Fafif Mar 29 2011 12:24 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Beltran and Bay in the same starting lineup only nine times in 2010. So if ten was your over/under, hope you bet under. Mets went 1-8 in those games. Therefore, neither Bay nor Beltran, according to the Times, is a winner.

Ashie62 Mar 29 2011 03:20 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

With Fmart I kinda feel like "If not now, when." It's not like he would be rushed.

Frayed Knot Mar 29 2011 03:26 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Ashie62 wrote: With Fmart I kinda feel like "If not now, when." It's not like he would be rushed. Yeah, he kind of still would be. The biggest problem with Fernando - aside from the constant injuries - is that he's been around for so long people tend to forget that he's still young, just a few months older than Cory Vaughn for instance.

Edgy MD Mar 29 2011 07:56 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Josh Stinson is six months and 26 days older. Reese Havens is one years, 11 months, and 20 days older. Dillon Gee is two years, five months, and 12 days older. Lucas Duda is two years, eight months, and seven days older.

metirish Mar 30 2011 06:37 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Sent to NY for tests, or perhaps testis ?

Ceetar Mar 30 2011 06:51 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

metirish wrote: Sent to NY for tests, or perhaps testis ? Not that I'm expecting him to start the season now, but beat writers are acting like he can't just get back on a plane and fly back to Florida tonight of the test were clear and he was painfree on Friday. He's going to anyway, it just depends if he's going to Miami or Port St. Lucie. I'm going to guess he joins the team Friday the 15th in Atlanta, after filing his taxes.

El Segundo Escupidor Mar 30 2011 07:33 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Certainly, but I think --- if Bay goes on the DL --- the first instinct would be to rescue Evans from the wire. His profile even resembles Bay's more. Well, according to the reports I saw, 1pm was the deadline so he's no longer on waivers. Anthony DiComo just tweeted that he hasn't cleared waivers yet.

Ceetar Mar 30 2011 07:39 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

The Second Spitter wrote: Ceetar wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Certainly, but I think --- if Bay goes on the DL --- the first instinct would be to rescue Evans from the wire. His profile even resembles Bay's more. Well, according to the reports I saw, 1pm was the deadline so he's no longer on waivers. Anthony DiComo just tweeted that he hasn't cleared waivers yet. Yeah, i guess whoever tweeted 1pm was wrong. Do waivers not have a set deadline and depend on how fast teams pass on a guy?

El Segundo Escupidor Mar 30 2011 07:43 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Yeah, they do, but since we are not privy to that sort of info, we wait for announcements. The only guy the Mets have announced has cleared is Misch. If Evans and Hernandez were put on at the same time, chances are they've both been claimed.

metirish Mar 30 2011 07:44 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

For people like me who are confused by waivers Baseball America How do waivers work? A waiver is defined as a permission granted for certain assignments or for the unconditional release of a major league player. A team asking waivers must notify the commissioner's office by 2 p.m. ET Monday through Friday. The commissioner's office will then notify all of the other teams of the waiver request. The other teams then have three business days to file a claim. If no team claims the player, the waiver is granted and the player may be assigned as the team desired. If a claim is filed, the team may withdraw the waiver request and keep the player if they so choose. Otherwise the player shall be assigned to the claiming team. If more than one team files a claim, the priority goes to the team with the worst record within the same league as the team filing the waiver request. Waivers are required for assignment to the minor leagues for any player who does not have options remaining. three business days........he went on Monday? http://www.baseballamerica.com/help/faq.html#waive

Ceetar Mar 30 2011 07:51 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

The Second Spitter wrote: Yeah, they do, but since we are not privy to that sort of info, we wait for announcements. The only guy the Mets have announced has cleared is Misch. If Evans and Hernandez were put on at the same time, chances are they've both been claimed. I thought they went on the same time. Is it possible everyone replied "No" to Misch where they just haven't responded to Evans and Hernandez? No one seems to be acting like this means he's been claimed, but it could certainly mean the Mets are in the process of working out a trade or deciding whether to pull him back? You can only put guys on waivers M-F before the afternoon? seems odd.

metirish Mar 30 2011 07:54 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Not really odd though is it?, MLB is a business and it's office probably runs like most others M-F, even though games are everyday. more If a team claims a player off waivers and has a viable claim as described above, his current team (the "waiving team") may choose one of the following options: arrange a trade with the claiming team for that player within two business days of the claim; or rescind the request and keep the player on its major league roster, effectively canceling the waiver; or do nothing and allow the claiming team to assume the player's existing contract, pay the waiving team a waiver fee, and place the player on its active major league roster.

El Segundo Escupidor Mar 30 2011 07:56 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 30 2011 07:59 AM

I know the waiver period during Spring Training differs from regular season. I'll need to look it up. Ceetar wrote: . Is it possible everyone replied "No" to Misch where they just haven't responded to Evans and Hernandez? You either claim the player in the allotted period or you don't reply.

metirish Mar 30 2011 07:58 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Only difference I could find was Any player under contract may be placed on waivers ("waived") at any time. After MLB's July 31st trade deadline and through to the end of the season, however, a team must place a player on waivers if that player is to be eligible to be traded.

El Segundo Escupidor Mar 30 2011 08:29 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Since we really don't know when exactly Evans was placed on waivers, conjecture is kinda pointless, I feel. Anyhow, I sourced the relevant rule (below) -- the main difference is that during ST you can put players on waivers on the weekend. MLB Rule 10(c)(3)(B): During a Certain Period in Spring Training. When waivers are requested during the period set forth in Rule 10(c)(1)(B) (The Procedures for Obtaining Waivers; Request; During a Certain Period in Spring Training), the period in which a Club may claim a player on whom waivers have been sought is as follows: Waivers Requested by 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Waiver Claim Must Be Entered by 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday

Ceetar Mar 30 2011 08:39 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

Waiver stuff is always confusing. I've read it enoug htimes that I think i'm almost getting it though. I was going off the 1pm yesterday and what i was reading on Twitter assuming that they were put on at the same time, and that that must've been three days ago. But I guess Misch was on earlier. doesn't look there is really any change in how waivers work. Once the 'season' starts (What's the official start date? is it March 21st or something? ) through the deadline, waivers operate one way, after the added 'to be traded' addition.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Mar 30 2011 10:16 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Jason Bay

I was going off the 1pm yesterday and what i was reading on Twitter assuming that they were put on at the same time, and that that must've been three days ago. But I guess Misch was on earlier. This. Word got out at the same time that they'd been waived... not necessarily that they'd been waived at the same time. Evans and Hernandez would clear by today, in 45 minutes, assuming they hadn't been claimed.