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Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Edgy MD Feb 02 2011 08:46 PM

Daniel Thomas Murphy Pos: 1B, 3b, 2B, LF; TR. Born: April 1, 1985 in Jacksonville, Florida. (He'll be age 25 in 2011.) On that day, the Mets were preparing to break camp with two new lineup members --- future ringbearers Gary Carter and Howard Johnson. The number one song was "One More Night" by Phil Collins. (It was a good year for music, but you certainly couldn't tell by the number one songs that year.) Acquired: Drafted by the Mets in the 13th round of the 2006 amateur draft and signed June 9, 2006. Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos St. Lucie FLOR (A+) 3 13 11 2 8 1 0 1 6 0 0 2 0 .727 .769 1.091 1.860 12 0 0 0 0 0 1b Buffalo IL (AAA) 8 35 34 4 10 3 0 1 8 1 0 1 2 .294 .314 .471 .785 16 2 0 0 0 0 1b, 2b Total All 11 48 45 6 18 4 0 2 14 1 0 3 2 .400 .438 .622 1.060 28 2 0 0 0 0 Wife: None I can find. Nickname: "Muffy" --- at least until consensus builds around something else. Namesakes: Best Day in 2010: Good days were hard to by from in 2010 for Daniel Murphy. He started camp with a job, but with the disrespect of his manager and the organization's best power prospect hot on his tail. On March 30, he hurt his knee in a spring training rundown. While he was out, the prospect booted the journeyman fill-in to the curb and took his job. He began training in earnest for new position while he rehabbed his knee, and on June 2, while playing second base, he got his season wiped out by a takeout slide. Ugh. Anyyutz, the guy never stopped hitting, ripping the ball to shreds in his 13 games last summer in the minors. Later joining the Aguilas Cibaenas, his perfomrance was a sensation, slashing in at .320 / .395 / .515 // .910 over 28 games and 116 plate appearances. Perhaps his best night was this 4-5 beatdown of Licey, in which is teammates weren't as awesome as he was, and so didn't turn his prowess into victory. Last Word: The second base job competion seems to have him at or near the top of the favorites' list, and Luis Castillo looking more like a potential releasee every day, but he's one boot away from vicious CitiField boos. On the other hand, Nick Cafard of The Boston Globe shared this back at the end of November. The second base experiment with Murphy is a work-in-progress but “heading in the right direction,’’ according to a scout who spent a lot of time watching Murphy in the Dominican the past two weeks. “He’s a good enough athlete where he can pull it off,’’ said the scout, “but it will take time just to learn all the nuances of the position. I can see their thinking. He can hit. A sound player. This would be a nice conversion [from 1B/OF] for them at a position they need help at.’’ What do you expect of Daniel Murphy in 2011?

Ceetar Feb 02 2011 09:02 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

I expect him to get the job. While I think Castillo will put up an admirable showing, his game will never 'wow' Collins, and he won't look that much better than Murphy, who has that growth potential. I think Murphy looks a little tentative at second through April but settles in, works hard, plays hard and in the end we say he played a good second. I expect him to hit around .280/.330/.450 with 19 HR, 92 RBI and only a shade more Ks than BBs. about 1.8 WAR.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 02 2011 09:39 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Starter at second, eventually ceding some time to Emaus, and spelling Davis at first until an injury in August. He'll play through, but it'll drop the year-end stats a good amount. 122 G 449 PA .260/.331/.435 .338 wOBA 13 HR 39 XBH 68 RBI 64 R 9 SB/4 CS 2.1 WAR

Frayed Knot Feb 03 2011 06:11 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

I expect him to NOT be the regular starting 2Bman

Edgy MD Feb 03 2011 06:15 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Does that include not being the lefthanded hitting part of a platoon?

Frayed Knot Feb 03 2011 06:20 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

That means less than ... oh say 50 starts there this season.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 03 2011 07:09 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

This one is tricky. I'll say 90 starts at second base, 10 starts elsewhere, including 2 at third base. .275 batting average, 8 home runs.

Mets Guy in Michigan Feb 03 2011 07:35 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

I'm pulling for him. I hope he's the starting second baseman, adding a little pop to the lineup.

TheOldMole Feb 03 2011 07:40 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

He'll improve as a hitter. He'll be around .300, with a bunch of extra base hits. He'll improve as a fielder, though not as much. He'll be the everyday second baseman, and become a fan faovorite in the Mets' all-homegrown infield.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 03 2011 07:43 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Another stumper. I think there's a good chance they give Muffy a shot at being a part-time second baseman -- but just as good a chance he proves not up to it defensively, at least not enough to support his presence out there UNLESS he turns out to hit considerably better than many of us are expecting. That's a lotta ifs right there. Not sure he turns in anything better than say, Ken Boswell of 1968: 4-11 .261/.300/.342 in 75 games/284 AB.

Edgy MD Feb 03 2011 07:57 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Those are some decent numbers for 1968. Adjust to CitiField 2010, and it's .292 / .334 / .383 // .717. I say he focuses on discipline and becomes Dave Magadan, 1988, adjusted for CitiField 2010: .312 / .433 / .376 // .809. It takes a while for the team to realize what a weapon they've got. He's not intimidated by lefties, but can't manage those great walk rates. He plays some first and third and left (!!) in addition to second, geting into 112 games. He spends a few weeks on the DL mid-year when his knee flares up, but comes back and plays almost every day the second half, batting second more than a bit. Some fans hate him because his power drops precipitously. Others drool over that OBP, and he becomes a lightning rod for arguments about nu stats, even though OBP is as old as the sky. batmurphyleadoff logs on about June 30.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 03 2011 08:04 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Yeah, I kinda picked Boswell '68 because it had the right times at bat moreso than the other counter stats. I would really expect a 1971 Boswell (101 OPS+) with 1968 plate appearances.

Frayed Knot Feb 03 2011 08:17 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

I would hope Muffy's slugging numbers are more than a bit better than those numbers being thrown around (IsoP = .064 - .091) especially since his however brief career to-date figure is .162

Edgy MD Feb 03 2011 08:20 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Yeah, I just predicted an insane adjustment, from modest slugger to punch-and-judy-hitting on-base machine. It'll be a remarkable and a big story for years --- decades even. "Remember when Murphy stopped swinginng for the fences and became a walk addict? Maybe Abasifreke should try that."

Vic Sage Feb 03 2011 08:25 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

.275/10hr/60rbi-runs, better range than you'd think, strong arm overcomes technical flaws on DPs, decent hands. all in all, an adequate ML 2bman... until he blows his knee out in July.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 03 2011 08:34 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Feb 03 2011 08:38 AM

Suffers a severe concussion on opening day when Murph lands on his head in the dugout after unsuccessfully trying to pull off an Ike Davis style over the handrail highlight reel catch. Leads off the next inning with a HR but twists his ankle when he rounds second base awkwardly due to dizzy spells from his head knock. The next day, Murph is beaned in the face when he forgets to move out of the way of an errant pitch. Is removed from the lineup one week later. While flying cross country to consult with a concussion doctor, his plane is hijacked.

Vic Sage Feb 03 2011 08:38 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

...Is removed from the lineup one week later after a red-eye flight for a series in LA. Well, the flight went to LA... he got on the wrong plane and ended up in Guam. His bags ended up in Ontario.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 03 2011 08:39 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Vic Sage wrote: ...Is removed from the lineup one week later after a red-eye flight for a series in LA. Well, the flight went to LA... he got on the wrong plane and ended up in Guam. His bags ended up in Ontario. see my edit.

smg58 Feb 03 2011 09:38 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Not enough range to beat out Brad Emaus for the starting job. Gets traded to the Athletics for pitching help.

G-Fafif Feb 03 2011 11:27 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Say, didn't he used to be Daniel Murphy?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 03 2011 11:48 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Frayed Knot wrote: I would hope Muffy's slugging numbers are more than a bit better than those numbers being thrown around (IsoP = .064 - .091) especially since his however brief career to-date figure is .162 That's why my Iso was .165. Also, Edge-- he throws righty.

Edgy MD Feb 03 2011 12:03 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Thanks for paying attention.

Ashie62 Feb 03 2011 12:05 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Injured by June.

Edgy MD Feb 03 2011 12:06 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Well, he shouldn't have slept with June's sister.

Fman99 Feb 04 2011 08:24 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Edgy DC wrote: Yeah, I just predicted an insane adjustment, from modest slugger to punch-and-judy-hitting on-base machine. It'll be a remarkable and a big story for years --- decades even. "Remember when Murphy stopped swinginng for the fences and became a walk addict? Maybe Abasifreke should try that." I'm going to change my CPF handle to 'batabasifrekeleadoff.'

attgig Feb 08 2011 08:17 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

starting 2b, and remains so through the whole year, showing better defense than anyone expected. 17hr. 274 ba drives in ~70

MFS62 Feb 08 2011 08:38 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

attgig wrote: starting 2b, and remains so through the whole year, showing better defense than anyone expected. Agreed. But I'll put his counting stats at .278, 35 2B, 12 HR, 75 RBI. Later

Lefty Specialist Feb 08 2011 09:30 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

This is Melvin Mora 2000. He can hit, but his fielding will be so poor that he gets traded for some minor league help that Sandy can slot in better. No matter how hard you pound on it, the square peg will not fit in the round hole.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 08 2011 09:52 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

What square peg? He looked better at first-- quick, surprisingly decisive-- than he ever looked in the outfield; if he had one fault there, it was trying to cover too much ground... which is much less of a flaw at the keystone.

Ceetar Feb 08 2011 10:01 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: What square peg? He looked better at first-- quick, surprisingly decisive-- than he ever looked in the outfield; if he had one fault there, it was trying to cover too much ground... which is much less of a flaw at the keystone. Mora turned out to be just fine, maybe Murph will too. I'd be curious what Collins thinks, if Murphy ends up in the utility role, would he be a candidate as a 5th OF replacement guy?

Benjamin Grimm Feb 08 2011 10:32 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

There are so many questions, and just over seven weeks until Opening Day. Things are gonna start getting interesting over the next few weeks.

Frayed Knot Feb 08 2011 10:34 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: What square peg? He looked better at first-- quick, surprisingly decisive-- than he ever looked in the outfield; if he had one fault there, it was trying to cover too much ground... which is much less of a flaw at the keystone. The square peg where you take someone who was a bat-first corner player throughout his amateur and minor league career and try to re-make him in the middle of the diamond in the majors at age 25. Mora turned out to be just fine But not as a short-stop.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 08 2011 10:52 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Even beyond the different arm-strength requirements, there's a world of difference between second and short. Murphy's defensive tendencies seem to favor his development at that particular position-- as much as they can for someone who, as you point out, is trying a new position in young adulthood-- as long as he gets sufficient practice making the throws. He sure as hell won't be a Gold Glover, at least not this year. But even if he's only a faking-it occasional second baseman, he's better defensively than at least one starter in the division, and he becomes a cheap DeRosa-type.

Edgy MD Feb 08 2011 11:12 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

In general, the more managers display the courage to push players as far right along the defensive spectrum as they can, the better. Replacing a fielder with a hitter can be so valuable.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Feb 08 2011 11:18 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Really. Does anyone here dissent with that?

batmagadanleadoff Feb 08 2011 12:09 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Really. Does anyone here dissent with that? Are you kidding? Me -- I went with Gates Brown StratOMaticv71 all season (LF 4 (+4))* and won the crown. *Those are defensive ratings. That's what Mo Vaughn would rate if he played left field.

Vic Sage Feb 08 2011 12:38 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

i loved Kevin Mitchell at SS.

Frayed Knot Feb 08 2011 02:12 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

I'm all for giving Murph the opportunity and think he can be "a faking-it occasional second baseman". Of course that's not the same thing as an everyday one and for all the Mitchell at SS memories it's a spot he played 25 times in his career, 20 of them starts. I suspect Muffy will get more than that but, again, not full time.

Lefty Specialist Feb 09 2011 01:27 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Frayed Knot wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: What square peg? He looked better at first-- quick, surprisingly decisive-- than he ever looked in the outfield; if he had one fault there, it was trying to cover too much ground... which is much less of a flaw at the keystone. The square peg where you take someone who was a bat-first corner player throughout his amateur and minor league career and try to re-make him in the middle of the diamond in the majors at age 25. Mora turned out to be just fine But not as a short-stop. Precisely my point. We're putting a lot of good wishes on this one with very little to back it up. Sure, Murphy eventually looked passable at first, but Ike Davis has closed off that option. This team has played people out of their normal positions so consistently over the years it amazes me.

Edgy MD Feb 09 2011 01:44 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

I don't think Murphy eventually looked passable at first. I think he was always fine there (more than passable), and Manuel eventually got around to getting past his infielder's prejudice that any fool can play outfield and anybody who can't certainly shouldn't be let in the infield.

Edgy MD Feb 12 2011 01:04 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Wife: None I can find. Grrrlfriend Tori Ahern.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 12 2011 07:06 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

[FMan]Osprey in her face![/FMan]

El Segundo Escupidor Feb 12 2011 08:58 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Imposing personal fantasies on others...not cool.

Fman99 Feb 13 2011 03:18 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: [FMan]Osprey in her face![/FMan]

Edgy MD Mar 28 2011 07:28 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Murph played nine innings in right field in a minor league exhibition yesterday.

Ceetar Mar 28 2011 07:36 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Edgy DC wrote: Murph played nine innings in right field in a minor league exhibition yesterday. scheduled to start in RF today in the Grapefruit, but unlikely due to the torrential downpour and the St. Lucie Mets not bothering to tarp the field before hand.

Edgy MD Jun 01 2011 07:16 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Murph definitely exhibited the arm for third base last night, and it's a shame his managers haven't given him more of an opportunity to spell Wright over there on occasion. His overaggression on the basepaths, that's a different story.

MFS62 Jun 01 2011 08:07 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Ceetar wrote: Mora turned out to be just fine, maybe Murph will too. Well, he's proven he can hit ok. But can he father quintuplets? Later

Edgy MD Jun 06 2011 11:25 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Daniel Murphy through May 6: .244 / .311 / .402 // .714. Daneil Murphy through June 6: 309 / .366 / .433 // .799. Turned a corner or merely hot?

Edgy MD Jun 06 2011 11:30 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Last 28 days: .368 / .421 / .471 // .892 Last 14 days: .500 / .540 / .565 // 1.105 Last 7 days: .550 / .591 / .550 //1.141

Vic Sage Jun 06 2011 11:44 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Turned a corner or merely hot? are you suggesting he's turned the corner and he's now a .500 hitter? i think i'll vote for "merely hot". Not that there's anything wrong with that.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 06 2011 11:51 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Mole's winning this one so far. My Boswellian future for him seems pretty pessimistic. He's going up there with an idea again.

Edgy MD Jun 06 2011 11:53 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Vic Sage wrote: Turned a corner or merely hot? are you suggesting he's turned the corner and he's now a .500 hitter? No.

Vic Sage Jun 06 2011 12:00 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

well, then you've answered your own question. a reversion to the mean is imminent. But i may agree with you that he HAS turned some kind of corner. It's just difficult to assess what neighborhood that corner is in, when he's this hot. We have more than 1/2 a season to go to see where his reversion ultimately lands him. I still think a .275-.280/ 15-20hr hitter is in there somewhere, which is excellent for a 2bman and less impressive for a corner man. Playing 1b is giving him ABs, but i don't think he has a future there and it retarding his growth at 2b. Not that there is anything to be done about it while Davis is out.

Edgy MD Jun 08 2011 10:24 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

well, then you've answered your own question. Don't be such a smart guy. If Wright and Davis returned tomorrow, would you try and steal some time for Murphy in left? I sure would.

Vic Sage Jun 08 2011 10:30 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Don't be such a smart guy. who are you, my 7th grade social studies teacher? If Wright and Davis returned tomorrow, would you try and steal some time for Murphy in left? I sure would. I sure would, too. But it's not stealing if Bay is giving it away. I'd platoon them until either Murphy stopped hitting, or Bay started. I guess i'd like to see him get as many opps as possible at 2b, to finally determine whether he can be adequate defensively. but if not, ultimately, I see Murph as a supersub, getting ABs at 1b, 2b, 3b, LF & Rf, as well as PH and DH. He could give us 400 productive ABs a season that way. But i don't see him as an everyday player unless his bat can carry his glove at 2b (Turner seems to be a better balanced option at this point), as his bat is likely inadequate for the corners (either IF or OF).

smg58 Jun 08 2011 11:17 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

He's on a pace for similar numbers to his 2009 season everywhere except batting average, and this was actually true when he was hitting below .250 as well. He's gotten a flurry of singles lately, but I figure he'll wind up about where he was in 2009.

Ceetar Jun 08 2011 11:30 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

smg58 wrote: He's on a pace for similar numbers to his 2009 season everywhere except batting average, and this was actually true when he was hitting below .250 as well. He's gotten a flurry of singles lately, but I figure he'll wind up about where he was in 2009. I was figuring a slight up-tick for him from 2009 in 2010. Dunno how a lost season plays into his overall growth.

Edgy MD Jul 20 2011 03:06 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Since May 21 --- a jerry-rigged, if not insignificant, period --- Daniel Murphy is tied with Adrian Gonzalez for most hits in MLB, according to Anthony DiComo

Vic Sage Aug 08 2011 10:15 AM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Smart boy, that Murph... blowing out a knee before his production reverted to the mean. But a great 1/2 season, Muffy!

Edgy MD Aug 08 2011 12:17 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

Tough call. None of really had the vision, and the truth lies somewhere among Ceetar, LWFS, myself, and Vic Sage. Ceetar got the WAR exactly right. I nailed the OPS, but was wrong about how he'd get there. Sage was a few weeks late regarding the injury. The closest answers are in red. The best way to win those is to be the only guy to answer in a category. I had to interpret some of these answers --- generating Bucket's by adjusting Boswell's 1971 numbers according to his 1968 games started.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 08 2011 05:09 PM Re: Expectations of Eleven: Daniel Murphy

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Suffers a severe concussion on opening day when Murph lands on his head in the dugout after unsuccessfully trying to pull off an Ike Davis style over the handrail highlight reel catch. Leads off the next inning with a HR but twists his ankle when he rounds second base awkwardly due to dizzy spells from his head knock. The next day, Murph is beaned in the face when he forgets to move out of the way of an errant pitch. Is removed from the lineup one week later. I thought that batmags nailed Murphy better than anybody else. To try and capture the essence of Murphy with numbers alone is to miss the point of Daniel Murphy.