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Dr Roster cures the Mets

The Second Spitter Apr 14 2011 12:09 AM

Eric Seidman is a good baseball writer and I agree with all his points; however he really doesn't propose anything radical. I'm all for trading Santana, but that realistic won't happen until December, at the earliest. Roster Doctor: Fixing the Mets Building a roster is tough. Rebuilding one is even tougher. Not only does a team need to adhere to a strict game plan in acquiring the right mix of talent at both the major and minor league levels, but it must also resist the urge to break away from a strategy if the returns are not immediately satisfactory. Sometimes multiple roster turnovers are needed before a competitive team emerges. I bring this up because the Mets currently find themselves in a strange situation, the gray area between competing and rebuilding. Their roster was originally constructed with a win-now mentality. But a slew of serious injuries and the regression associated with various players aging kept them from seriously competing in years past. These same factors have also rendered them unlikely to battle for a playoff berth this season. The extremely high cost of several players, acquired under previous management, mixed with the financial troubles of ownership has made budgeting a serious consideration. The Mets simply cannot spend like they used to. Without a dynamite farm system, and with high-priced players on the books, it could be particularly difficult for the team to get where it needs to be, even with a solid front office featuring Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta. How can the Mets right the proverbial ship? Here is a brief overview of do’s and dont’s that could help vault the team back to the top of the competitive spectrum. Don’t Overpay Mike Pelfrey Pelfrey does some things well. Though he doesn’t miss many bats, and is by no means a control freak, he keeps the ball on the ground and in the yard. He has also proven himself durable, averaging a touch under 200 innings over the last three seasons. But he is a nice, middle-of-the-rotation hurler and not an ace in the making; his opening day start should not be conflated with his status as an opening day starter. Pitchers of this ilk certainly have value, but they are not worth lucrative contract extensions. Much of his success stems from extremely low HR/FB ratios, which can be lower for groundball pitchers, but I wouldn’t bank on him sustaining a sub-6.0 percent rate. The Mets should not rule out non-tendering him at some point over the next two seasons either if it becomes clear that his likely salary will exceed his value. He has two more years of arbitration eligibility and makes just under $4 million this season. Assuming he continues to hover around his 2008-10 average of 2.5 wins per season, a wins-to-dollar computation would likely justify a $10-11 million salary, but production just over the league average could likely be found at much less of a cost. A team in the Mets position shouldn’t be paying a pitcher like Pelfrey an eight-figure salary. Don’t Let Francisco Rodgriguez’s 2012 Option Vest Under no circumstances should that option, valued at $17.5 million, be allowed to vest. The salary becomes guaranteed if Rodriguez finishes 55 games this season, if his 2010-11 games finished total meets or exceeds 100, and if doctors declare him healthy when the season ends. He finished 46 games last season, meaning he will need exactly 55 this season to satisfy the first two contractual criteria. K-Rod is a solid relief pitcher but in no way whatsoever is he worth $17.5 million. The salary would only be somewhat justifiable if he was 100 percent guaranteed to match his peripherals from a year ago, and if the Mets were a serious playoff contender. The contract calls for a buyout of $3.5 million if the option is not exercised, or does not vest, and that $14 million in savings could go a long way toward helping the Mets turn things around. Feel Out the Trade Market For Carlos Beltran When the Mets signed Beltran to a 7-yr/$119 million contract back in 2005, they included an interesting provision by agreeing not to offer arbitration after the final year of the deal. Perhaps Beltran and Boras saw the writing on the wall that teams may shy away from Type A free agents due to the required surrender of high draft picks. The idea that the Mets might be able to extract more in compensatory draft picks than they could in prospects from a trade has to be thrown out the window. They won’t get high compensatory picks, and if they don’t seek a trade, they won’t be able to extract value from him beyond this season in any capacity. Beltran is a fantastic player when healthy, but his production will not make or break the Mets campaign. That being said, I’m a big Beltran fan and hate the vitriol consistently spewed in his direction. He can still be valuable and help a team this season, but it’s in the Mets best interest to use Beltran to help their future, and not just let him walk away and sign elsewhere. Extend Jose Reyes I know they have money troubles, but it doesn’t mean the team has no money whatsoever. Simply put, the Mets have nobody ready to fill in should they let Reyes walk, and the only other similarly talented option available via free agency is Jimmy Rollins. Can’t see that happening. From 2006-08, Reyes averaged almost six wins above replacement per season, and in his first full season removed from an injury, he managed 2.8 WAR last year. If his asking price becomes absurdly high, the Mets should reevaluate the situation, but otherwise extending Reyes is a no-brainer. He will cost much more than the $6 million average annual value of his current contract, but he and agent Peter Greenberg aren’t going to be asking for $18-$20 million either. I’m sure a deal can be worked for all vested parties. Trade Johan Santana? I know, it sounds crazy, and this key is a wild card, but hear me out. Santana isn’t the pitcher he once was, and does a team in their situation really want to be on the hook for $24 million next season, $25.5 million in 2013, and $25 million in 2014? The final year of the deal is structured as a club option that converts to a player option if he pitches 215 innings in 2013, 420 innings over 2012-13, or 630 innings from 2011-13. If he can return at the end of the year and remain healthy into next season, it’s conceivable that the option becomes his, at which point he would certainly choose to guarantee the hefty salary. If the Mets were to pay, say, half of his remaining salary, several teams would come out of the woodwork to pony up prospects and pay Santana $12 or so million a year based on the possibility he reverts to previously established levels. If the Mets can seriously improve their team by extending Reyes, and using the money saved by not overpaying Pelfrey, from Beltran coming off the books, and from Rodriguez’s option being bought out, then Johan could be a big part of their success a couple of years out. Exploring a trade for their ace isn’t a necessity, but is interesting to ponder. But if the team needs to remove part of his salary from their books, or use his perceived value to substantially aid their rebuilding efforts, the fact that he is Johan Santana should not stand in their way. In fact, it should be to their benefit should they try and make a move. Right now the Mets lack an identity. They don’t know if they are rebuilding or going all in. Before following any of these steps the team needs to accurately assess its current state and decide what path to take. Otherwise they will remain in neutral, with talented players but not enough either now or in the future to compete for a championship.

Edgy DC Apr 14 2011 07:17 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

They certainly may end up getting a handful of comeback starts from Santana and, if he shows he's viable, trading him for the stretch run, but there's a whole lot of baseball to happen before then, and a whole lot of priorities will shift.

TransMonk Apr 14 2011 07:19 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

I agree with everything he has said and all of these options should be explored.

metirish Apr 14 2011 07:29 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

but he and agent Peter Greenberg aren’t going to be asking for $18-$20 million either. I’m sure a deal can be worked for all vested parties. they're not?, great news. Right now the Mets lack an identity. They don’t know if they are rebuilding or going all in. I was under the impression that the three wise men were rebuilding the whole shebang . The farm system is not as bad as made out though is it?

Edgy DC Apr 14 2011 07:37 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

The farm system is beautiful.

The Second Spitter Apr 14 2011 07:49 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

I think his analysis of the Reyes situation is spot-on, specifically dispelling the notion that the Mets won't pursue him merely because of his (alleged) inability to maintain a high OBA/BB rate.

Edgy DC Apr 14 2011 07:53 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Well, what is sort of obvious but fudged over when a guy writes the likes of "Simply put, the Mets have nobody ready to fill in should they let Reyes walk" is that teams have the option (and take the option all the time) of attempting to replace a productive player with a less productive (and less expensive) player and seeking to get that productivity back at another position.

Gwreck Apr 14 2011 07:55 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

I think he's overly optimistic that the Mets would find anyone willing to take Santana and/or that it would benefit the Mets to eat enough salary in order to get useful players back.

The Second Spitter Apr 14 2011 07:59 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Yet, there's a team who recently thought Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, and Carlos Silva were a good idea (and I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody).

John Cougar Lunchbucket Apr 14 2011 08:05 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

I'd trade the living shit out of Santana. You guys are convincing me to go big to keep Reyes.

Ceetar Apr 14 2011 08:12 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Assuming he continues to hover around his 2008-10 average of 2.5 wins per season, a wins-to-dollar computation would likely justify a $10-11 million salary, but production just over the league average could likely be found at much less of a cost. A team in the Mets position shouldn’t be paying a pitcher like Pelfrey an eight-figure salary. Lost me here. I'm not sure finding a workhorse type pitcher of 2.5 WAR to stick in your rotation and forget about is that easy to find, particularly a young one that will presumably not fall off with age anytime soon. Sure, it could be found, but it's not like you need just one of those guys. Why let the guy you have and _is_ doing it go on the hope that the new guy you sign will put up the same numbers for a little bit less? I'd say a "team in the Mets position" should look to lock down guys like Pelfrey long term (and if you work out an extension and whatnot, probably can do it for less than 10-11 rather than having to bid against the other ~27 teams that also needs pitchers of that caliber) because it's one less thing to worry about. Also with Santana, even if someone would take him for half his salary, does anyone really think that ~12 million is going to get you a pitcher that much better than Johan? If at all? Both these points seem to ignore that the biggest thing the Mets lack is pitching depth, so why would they let pitchers go away?

Benjamin Grimm Apr 14 2011 08:16 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Because, in theory anyway, ditching Santana's salary could get you enough money to buy two or maybe three pitchers to replace him. And then there's your depth.

TransMonk Apr 14 2011 08:18 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Also, I would think that before dealing Santana, one or both of Harvey/Mejia would need to be a major league starter.

Ceetar Apr 14 2011 08:20 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Because, in theory anyway, ditching Santana's salary could get you enough money to buy two or maybe three pitchers to replace him. And then there's your depth. $12 million is not going to buy three pitchers. And certainly not quality pitchers. (I mean sure, if you could ditch ALL of the salary. but for that, he'd have to be pitching like Johan Santana, and then you'd be silly to trade him) IF the Mets get into a position where they have depth because Harvey and Mejia and Niese are holding down the rotation with other arms in reserve that look promising, sure. But that's hardly the case right now, nor will it be in the immediate future.

The Second Spitter Apr 14 2011 08:21 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Really? Pelfrey has "epitome of mediocrity" stamped all over him. As for Santana, I betchya he'll average <4WAR for the remainder of his contract.

Ceetar Apr 14 2011 08:26 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Also, I assume the answer to this is "No" but since Beltran's contract, the one with the agreement not to offer Arbitration, expires before they'd actually be able to offer it, couldn't they just do it anyway? Or does the contract run until Beltran files for free agency after which point it's too late to offer it? Is this just a niciety? I mean, can a contract really dictate how the team operates and circumvent the rules of baseball?

metirish Apr 14 2011 08:40 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Not Big Pelf is under team control for two more years anyway right? I'd not go giving him a contract beyond that until then at least.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 14 2011 08:42 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

He probably wouldn't sign one anyway. His agent is Scott Boras, who takes just about every client of his to free agency.

Ceetar Apr 14 2011 08:46 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

metirish wrote: Not Big Pelf is under team control for two more years anyway right? I'd not go giving him a contract beyond that until then at least. Yeah, through 2013. So i guess it's conceivable our rotation will be nice and stacked by then and he'd cost more than he'd be worth to us, but it's roughly impossible to project that now.

The Second Spitter Apr 14 2011 08:52 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Pelfrey will be traded before July (assuming he manages to get his ERA below 5, that is)

metirish Apr 14 2011 08:53 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

The Second Spitter wrote: Pelfrey will be traded before July (assuming he manages to get his ERA below 5, that is) if he had a half year this year like lasts then he'd be more attractive....

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 14 2011 08:55 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Ceetar wrote: Because, in theory anyway, ditching Santana's salary could get you enough money to buy two or maybe three pitchers to replace him. And then there's your depth. $12 million is not going to buy three pitchers. And certainly not quality pitchers. (I mean sure, if you could ditch ALL of the salary. but for that, he'd have to be pitching like Johan Santana, and then you'd be silly to trade him) Trading Santana doesn't make sense at the major league level, unfortunately, unless you're simply looking to save money. Basically, if you opt to trade Santana and eat half his salary, you'll need to at least replace his slot in the rotation. If you don't have immediate, roughly equivalent options to a healthy-enough-to-trade-away Johan in the system, then that'll have to come from outside, most likely via FA. So, in other words, you're replacing Santana with whatever you can get for $12M on a 1-2 year deal (otherwise, you gain nothing in flexibility). So, in deciding whether or not to trade a functional Santana while eating half of his money, you're opting between: 1) Santana at Santana's salary 2) Old Brad Penny or Old Tim Hudson or Old Carlos Silva (depending on how lucky you are) at Santana's salary ($12M to the pitcher, $12-13M to Santana with his new team) If Santana's well enough and doing well enough to entice a buyer, then wouldn't you rather have Santana?

Edgy DC Apr 14 2011 09:12 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Basically, if you opt to trade Santana and eat half his salary, you'll need to at least replace his slot in the rotation. If you don't have immediate, roughly equivalent options to a healthy-enough-to-trade-away Johan in the system, then that'll have to come from outside, most likely via FA. So, in other words, you're replacing Santana with whatever you can get for $12M on a 1-2 year deal (otherwise, you gain nothing in flexibility). Unless you believe you can get Santana's quality at a lower salary through good judgment and wileyness.

attgig Apr 14 2011 09:19 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Trading Santana doesn't make sense at the major league level, unfortunately, unless you're simply looking to save money. Basically, if you opt to trade Santana and eat half his salary, you'll need to at least replace his slot in the rotation. If you don't have immediate, roughly equivalent options to a healthy-enough-to-trade-away Johan in the system, then that'll have to come from outside, most likely via FA. So, in other words, you're replacing Santana with whatever you can get for $12M on a 1-2 year deal (otherwise, you gain nothing in flexibility). you also have to think that Santana can bring you back something substantial back in the trade, be it a decent prospect or two, or some other role players.

The Second Spitter Apr 14 2011 09:20 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Trading Santana doesn't make sense at the major league level, unfortunately, unless you're simply looking to save money. Would you eat half Santana's contract for Montero and Banuelos? (not disputing your fine analysis)

attgig Apr 14 2011 09:26 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Ceetar wrote: metirish wrote: Not Big Pelf is under team control for two more years anyway right? I'd not go giving him a contract beyond that until then at least. Yeah, through 2013. So i guess it's conceivable our rotation will be nice and stacked by then and he'd cost more than he'd be worth to us, but it's roughly impossible to project that now. It'll depend on what the arbitration number looking at other arbitration pitchers who aren't signed, it seems like pelfrey's salary can compare to someone like Jered Weaver. in his 3rd year of service, he signed a 4.2 mil contract last year. pelf has a 3.925 contract in his 3rd year. this year is weaver's 4th year, and got himself a 7.37 mil contract. it would be realistic to pelfrey to target a similar number. and by the last year of arbitration elligibility, it'll just be 1 year for another sizable raise. 7 mil for 2012 is about what I would expect to pay for pelfrey so, i could see them just going for it. but, by the last year, it could go over 10, and non-tendering a 10 mil player who's going to be a #3 starter in 2013 seems like a smart move. But, there's a lot of baseball between now and then, and who knows. he may become a better pitcher who may be worth it. or he may tank so much this year, that 7 mil next year isn't worth it.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 14 2011 09:36 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

I would gladly eat Santana's contract for Montero and Banuelos. So, I'd imagine, would Alderson. Which is why there's NFW that the MFYs would do that deal. Aging but healthy/good Santana, at half salary, brings you back a DECENT prospect or two. He probably doesn't get you blue-chippers. If he's suddenly performing again at prime-levels? That's another conversation. (It's also another universe, where the rules of aging are wildly different, you can sing four-part harmony by yourself, and I poo delicious creme fraiche.)

Edgy DC Apr 14 2011 09:56 AM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

I don't really like this thread --- it's all stuff that's a few bridges down the road --- but if the Yankees are four games behind at the deadline, they'd give up all of George's grandchildren to get a stater with an All-Star track record. That's just what they are.

Vic Sage Apr 14 2011 03:13 PM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Pelf has a 3.925 contract in his 3rd year. this year is weaver's 4th year, and got himself a 7.37 mil contract. it would be realistic to pelfrey to target a similar number. yeah, except like Weaver is all good and shit. just lead the AL in Ks, with a career ERA under 3.5. Pelfrey's ERA is almost a full run higher, even with Weaver in the DH league. They're not even comparable in service, with Weaver having already pitched nearly 50% more innings to date. If he gets Weaver-type money in arbitration, the Mets screwed up big time. which, of course, is entirely possible.

metirish Apr 14 2011 03:25 PM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

Maybe the writer meant Jeff Weaver, he didn't but that might be the better comparison.

attgig Apr 14 2011 03:27 PM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

it's all about the service time. I see him getting close to 7 this off season if he has similar numbers this year compared to last year....unless he contines his craptacular pitching, of course.

Nymr83 Apr 14 2011 04:00 PM Re: Dr Roster cures the Mets

The Second Spitter wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Trading Santana doesn't make sense at the major league level, unfortunately, unless you're simply looking to save money. Would you eat half Santana's contract for Montero and Banuelos? (not disputing your fine analysis) I wouldn't, but only because I think Montero has "DH" written all over him.