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A-P Worst Proposed Trade Ever Thread
| Rotblatt Oct 31 2005 09:28 AM |
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From Rotoworld:
Why would we trade for starting pitching when we have a surplus of it? Especially when what we've got is pretty good and pretty much unarguably the LEAST of our problems? Zito's not even an ace--his career line is 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.03 K/9, 2.05 K/BB. Good, but unspectacular. He's still youngish, but Heilman's younger and is coming off a better year than Zito (3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 2.86 K/BB). Throw in the fact that Zito's set to make $8.5M in his walk year, and I'd call it a close call to even do Heilman for Zito straight up. Once you throw in Milledge, it's just silly.
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| metirish Oct 31 2005 09:31 AM |
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This smells of Rick Peterson all over...no thanks
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| Elster88 Oct 31 2005 09:32 AM |
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On the other hand, Zito did win a Cy Young Award, no? Heilman had a nice year last year, but he's not a guaranteed ace anymore than Zito (and probably less so.)
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| Iubitul Oct 31 2005 09:34 AM |
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just what we need, a burnt out surfer dude pretty boy...
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| Elster88 Oct 31 2005 09:35 AM |
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Which was the first? Zambrano? Not sure if that was Rick's idea. My main problem with Peterson is that whenever he goes out to the mound he puts his hand on the pitcher's shoulder and talks to him from about three inches away.
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| metirish Oct 31 2005 09:37 AM |
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Ah I'm just busting Ricks balls, if we are going to use a blue chip prospect then I think we should at least get that "big bat" for him..
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| Elster88 Oct 31 2005 09:41 AM |
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Me too.
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| SwitchHitter Oct 31 2005 09:42 AM |
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Peter Gammons makes up stuff that just ain't so. I wouldn't worry about it too much.
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| seawolf17 Oct 31 2005 09:43 AM |
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Ah, Gammons is just pandering to get Scarlet's support.
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| Rotblatt Oct 31 2005 09:51 AM |
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I hear you--he's a nice pitcher and he's got more of a track record than Heilman, but he's also getting paid $8.5M. Even before throwing in Milledge, is the likely difference between Zito & Heilman $8.2M?
True, but he's also one of the best prospects in baseball, which means an incredibly valuable trading chip. Why use that chip on a position that isn't a problem? This strikes me as a publicity stunt to generate buzz, not a move to make our team better.
Sure, but the aging Glavine had a suberb 2nd half last year. Petey was good the entire year, although his peripherals declined in the second half. Seo was dominant when he had a chance. So was Heilman. Benson was solid but inconsistent. Trachsel has been a constant #3 guy throughout his career and should be feeling pretty fresh in 2006. Zambrano had stretches where he was decent and in any case would make a great #5 pitcher. Petit has got some serious upside and some scouts think he could be ready to pitch in the middle of 2006. That's what you call some serious motherfucking depth. Even better, it's got some real upside between Heilman, Seo & Petit. We need a guy who can close (personally, I'd go after Ryan or Wagner, then resign Loop to a much smaller contract as insurance--if he was ineffective because he was hurt, which seems likely, he'd be worth taking a shot on), a legitimate first baseman, a decent catcher and a solution to the Matsui problem--in that order, IMO. Upgrading our starting pitching with all those other holes seems foolish to me.
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| Edgy DC Oct 31 2005 09:51 AM |
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I don't know what Peterson smells like, to be honest.
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| Elster88 Oct 31 2005 09:54 AM |
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All good points, Rotty.
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| ScarletKnight41 Oct 31 2005 09:55 AM |
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I guess I don't need to weigh in here - my vote seems to be a matter of public knowledge.
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| seawolf17 Oct 31 2005 09:59 AM |
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Scarlet loves Zito in the same way the rest of us have man-crushes on David Wright.
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| metirish Oct 31 2005 10:00 AM |
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I was close to him once(20 feet) and I swear he was lathered with what smelled like Brute....
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| smg58 Oct 31 2005 10:22 AM |
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I'm not sure that the Mets have a legit #2 starter, and I think Zito could fit that bill. That being said, he's not worth Milledge alone, much less Milledge and somebody. The Mets have a surplus of major league talent at certain positions to make deals with, so dicussing Milledge or Petit for anybody at this point is exactly the wrong way to handle this offseason.
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| Elster88 Oct 31 2005 10:31 AM |
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So Zito, a 27 year-old left-handed former Cy Young award winner, is not worth Milledge alone? He's a prospect, for crying out loud.
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| Yancy Street Gang Oct 31 2005 10:49 AM |
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In the abstract, I'd trade Milledge for Zito, too. The part I don't like is that Zito is in his walk year. Is one year of Zito worth what could be ten or more of Milledge? I'd like this deal a lot better if it included one of those 72-hour negotiating windows.
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| Johnny Dickshot Oct 31 2005 11:07 AM |
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I probably wouldn't do it but I wouldn't necessarily call this the worst trade proposal ever, and as said above there's an argument for it.
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| smg58 Oct 31 2005 12:17 PM |
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First off, I am not at all opposed to looking into getting Zito; I think he could be a solid #2 starter in Peterson's hands, and while we're deep with starters, I don't think we have a clear #2 in house. That being said, he hasn't always been consistent in the past two seasons, and there's a limit to what I'd deal for him. Starting with the Mets' best prospects. You don't deal your best prospects unless you know you're getting an elite player in return, and Zito hasn't been quite that level of pitcher the past two seasons. If the Mets had traded Wright two years ago for somebody like Zito, we'd be regretting it now. Plus, we currently have eight guys who could be in somebody's rotation next year, along with four capable outfielders, and more than enough money to pursue free agents. I just don't see why acquiring players that could make us contenders should cost us Milledge or Petit.
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| Elster88 Oct 31 2005 12:27 PM |
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I disagree with this, very,very strongly, but that's probably more of a difference in our respective TiTTS ideaologies than anything else.
True, but I would wager that for every Milledges that turns out to be a Wright, there are many more that turn out to be an Escobar. (I sense Escobar-defense posts are coming.)
What you are saying here is much different than "he's not worth Milledge alone, much less Milledge and somebody.", which is the main part that I disagreed with. I agree we have other areas to improve besides SP, and I would happily trade Milledge to see them addressed.
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| Edgy DC Oct 31 2005 12:49 PM |
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Let's measure that. Dig up Baseball America 's top ten prospects, 1991-2000, and let's figure out how many became All Stars, how many regulars, how many reserves/platoonists/journeymen (like Escobar), how many AAAA fringers and how many washouts.
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| Rotblatt Oct 31 2005 01:09 PM |
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There have been a number of studies looking at that kind of thing. Here's the first study I was able to dig up:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1459&mode=print&nocache=1111273218
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| Edgy DC Oct 31 2005 01:19 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 31 2005 10:20 PM |
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Thanks.
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| smg58 Oct 31 2005 01:25 PM |
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I wouldn't defend Escobar -- he looked like he was ready, got his chance, and then promptly took several major steps backwards. I don't think the Mets handled the situation improperly, and the Alomar deal looked like a good thing at the time. The three high-end prospects the Mets have had since (Reyes, Wright, and Kazmir) are each coming off solid seasons (All-Star caliber, in Wright's case), but evaluating prospects is an inexact science. It's tough to know who's a keeper and who's expendable when you've never seen them play, but Milledge's recent performance suggests he's heading in the right direction and is worth keeping. At any rate, I think dealing him would be a much greater risk to the team than passing on a deal involving him when we have plenty of other resources with which to obtain good players.
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| Rotblatt Oct 31 2005 01:31 PM |
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Here's the list. I'm including #11, cause that's when Lastings was selected. Regulars for 2 or more years with career OPS+ or ERA+ over 80 noted in bold. I chose 80 or more because replacement level is considered to be 80% of average.
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| Yancy Street Gang Oct 31 2005 01:32 PM |
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Do we? There's money, of course, but I'm not sure that the Mets have a whole lot of young inexpensive players that many other teams would find appealing. I think teams will be asking for Milledge and/or Petit. And I don't get the sense that Omar thinks that either of them are untouchable.
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| Rotblatt Oct 31 2005 01:41 PM |
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Zito's VORP in 2005 was 41.8 (25th in the majors among pitchers). 2004: 31.5 (54th) 2003: 58.6 (11th) 2002: 73.4 (3rd) 2001: 52.3 (17th) I would expect Zito to do quite better than 18.2 for a pretty long time. However, I don't think he'll do better than 44.7 (Heilman's 2005 VORP + Milledge's projected VORP) very often.
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| smg58 Oct 31 2005 09:22 PM |
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Not as appealing as Milledge and Petit, to be sure, but guys like Heilman, Diaz, Hernandez, Seo, and Bannister wouldn't be valueless. And the players don't have to be young to be dealable. Trachsel and Zambrano would command some market value, and Cameron could probably command quite a bit. The Mets might be in a position to deal other players as well, depending on their free agent acquisitions. (Hypothetically, say somebody offers us a good second baseman for Floyd while we sign Brian Giles.) On the subject of VORP's, keep in mind that the "replacement player" on the Mets would likely be either Steve Trachsel or Victor Zambrano, or possibly Jae Seo.
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