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Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Edgy DC Apr 20 2011 09:44 PM

1. It's playing for the tie --- at the expense of the win --- at home. Ugh. 2. Let's be generous and say it's an 80% play. Reyes stealing is an 80% play. This season, it has been a 100% play. 3. If it's successful, it takes .500 batting average to tie the game. If Reyes stealing is successful, it takes a .333 batting average to tie the game. 4. Wright, you may notice, hasn't been hitting. You need your outs. 5. You take a guy, bump him up to the number two slot, get him excited that he's got the stuff and he can show the world, and then flash him a sign that says he sucks and you just want him to make an out. 6. It's not an 80% play. Look at a game. It's just not. Yet we call for it like success is guaranteed. It's anything but. 7. It's not just the guy. It tells the whole team: "You suck. Now let me try and gimmick my way to a bullshit win to save you sucky sucks some face." It wrecks confidence when it's successful. It absolutely murders confidence when it... happens to happen like it happened. 8. It inspires the Murphys and the Pagans to kill themselves with overagressivness trying to make something happen when their manager is giving outs away like the E.E. Ford Foundaiton of Outs. "Are you the manager, now?" he screamed at Murphy. Well, some part of him had to have been thinking, "grumblegrumblecan'tdoanyworsegrumbleleastIdon'tgivethegameawaywithbuntsgrumblegrumble." 9. Baseball. It's not about you. My God, did nobody tell you about Jerry? 10. Playing for the tie and extra innings? Do you suddenly want this game decided by your bullpen depth?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 20 2011 09:48 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Edgy DC wrote: 3. If it's successful, it takes .500 batting average to tie the game. If Reyes stealing is successful, it takes a .333 batting average to tie the game. Or a contact-y .000 batting average.

Edgy DC Apr 20 2011 09:49 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Yup.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 20 2011 09:51 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Or fouling off fastballs, and taking everything else. Lyons didn't throw a single breaking ball for a strike, and tends to walk guys in bunches.

Vic Sage Apr 20 2011 10:03 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Cuntbunter strikes again... makes me long for wee willie small balls.

Ceetar Apr 20 2011 10:04 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Well, I'm not totally against playing for the tie, the idea is it awards you three more outs, which is valuable. For better or worse, I think the players think the bunt is the right move too. It's probably been so ingrained into them that that's what you do.. So I don't think it's killing their confidence, and I think i t's the losing that's causing Pagan and Murphy and whoever to press. You do need a hit anyway, but if it's Thole that gets the hit you've got a guy on third with no outs. Even if Thole makes out, if Wright gets the hit you still probably have a runner on third with less than one out, which is still better than bunting him to second.

The Second Spitter Apr 20 2011 10:30 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 21 2011 01:23 AM

I wonder how much of this is attributable to AL managers believing you must bunt to be successful in the NL? Watched the game with a Mets bro who remarked: Trying to find a way to blame all this bunting on the Wilpons. Haven't quite managed to figure it out yet, but I'm sure someone will.

G-Fafif Apr 20 2011 10:48 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

The Second Spitter wrote: I wonder how much of this is attributable to AL managers believing you must bunt to successful in the NL? Watched the game with a Mets bro who remarked: Trying to find a way to blame all this bunting on the Wilpons. Haven't quite managed to figure it out yet, but I'm sure someone will. Jeff Wilpon commissioned a study that proves bunts save wear and tear on bats versus swings. Every nickel counts.

Ceetar Apr 21 2011 06:02 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Bunting keeps souvenir home run balls out of the stands! (And I think they give away a signed one too!) Mets are asked if they're going to toss something to someone in the stands, make it something overused. chewing gum, Pedro Feliciano's arm (I think it's probably still there somewhere) broken bats.. Or toss something of the opposing teams.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 06:19 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Ceetar wrote: For better or worse, I think the players think the bunt is the right move too. It's probably been so ingrained into them that that's what you do.. So I don't think it's killing their confidence, and I think i t's the losing that's causing Pagan and Murphy and whoever to press. The bunting and the losing are not so distinguishable.

Frayed Knot Apr 21 2011 07:22 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Even before getting to the arguable premise about the upside of even a successful bunt, it's the (quite false) assumption of guaranteed success which has long been my main bone of contention with those who reflexively call for it in such situations. Then throw in the part about using it without consideration for where you are in the lineup and you have last night.

Centerfield Apr 21 2011 07:32 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

I guarantee you if Reyes tries a straight steal there it doesn't end up in a double play.

Ceetar Apr 21 2011 07:41 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Centerfield wrote: I guarantee you if Reyes tries a straight steal there it doesn't end up in a double play. Wish he'd at least gotten the chance. I'm assuming someone must have asked him at one point over the years "wouldn't you like to steal in that situation?" And i assume he gave a bland response... but if I had to single out a player that didn't like the bunt, it'd be him.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 08:21 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Frayed Knot wrote: Even before getting to the arguable premise about the upside of even a successful bunt, it's the (quite false) assumption of guaranteed success which has long been my main bone of contention with those who reflexively call for it in such situations. Then throw in the part about using it without consideration for where you are in the lineup and you have last night. Frayed Knot with more on number six and adds a number 11. I want to say that I didn't have to stop at 10 last night, but I ran out of fingers. I lay awake last night and more reasons not to bunt started coming to me. And coming and coming. Strategic reasons, psychological reasons, financial reasons, philosphical reasons, religious reasons, technical reasons, artistic reasons, manly reasons, womanly reasons, reasons that have to do with my heart, reasons that have to with my bile, reasons that only the simple understand, reasons that only the brilliant can fathom, reasons that are best explained in a foreign tongue, and reasons that are best explained by computers. Oh, my sleep was unquiet! I guarantee you if Reyes tries a straight steal there it doesn't end up in a double play. Unless he steals with two strikes, but yeah. But then we're confronted with the false truth that stealing is fraught with risk while bunting is the safer, more conservative play. Arm yourselves with data and and case studies to explode this position. I beg you. And sheesh, if we're going to be cutting the legs out from under our players asking them to bunt and bunt and bunt in game situations, why did we release Luis Castillo?

A Boy Named Seo Apr 21 2011 08:52 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

On the surface, Reyes owned Towles during the game, which really annoyed the shit out of me. 2 for 2, 100% for the night (and a perfect 8-8 on the season). Towles has caught just 1 of 7 stealers this year (14%) and just 27% for his career. The risk there is a good risk to take, sez me. Looking at win expectancy, the bunt doesn't put the Mets in a better position to win anyway. Per Fangraphs, the Mets WE went from 17.5% to 30.7% after the Reyes single. That's something anyway. Using Tom Tango's win expectancy matrix to figure out the what-if's, after a successful bunt, the Mets down 1 in the bottom the 9th with a runner on second have a 28.2% chance of winning. Yeah, it seems their likelihood of winning decreases there. If he steals second successfully (again, a pretty good fucking risk to take right there), their WE goes to 43.7%. He gets thrown out and the WE is just 11% and you're fucked anyway. Fast dude. Shitty armed catcher. Let him try to steal. That game really put me off, man.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 09:06 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Here's one thing: I've been shouting (and not alone among Poolers) into the void for years, hoping against reason that my voice would reach the Mets organizaiton. Where is Keith on all this. He's written that he loved when opposiing teams bunted. Shouldn't he be mercilessly abusing this play when he sees it, even without himself on defense?

batmagadanleadoff Apr 21 2011 09:09 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Another point to make is that the #2 slot in the batting order isn't (like many managers play it) for the leftover guy, the batter that's not quite awful enough to bat eighth. When the guy at the top of the lineup leads off by not making an out and your #3 hitter is on deck, you're poised for a big inning. If Collins doesn't have enough confidence in Thole to get a hit in that situation, then Collins shouldn't have Thole batting second in the first place. Because, why put what you believe to be a severely flawed hitter in between your leadoff hitter and the meat of the lineup? The #2 slot is no place for a crappy hitter. Trying to find a way to blame all this bunting on the Wilpons. Haven't quite managed to figure it out yet, but I'm sure someone will. Here's something: Small ball became a large component of the Mets offense instantly as soon as the Wilpons acquired a 100% ownership interest in the Mets. It's been that way ever since*. *Except for the Jerry portion of the 2008 season.

Ceetar Apr 21 2011 09:13 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Edgy DC wrote: Here's one thing: I've been shouting (and not alone among Poolers) into the void for years, hoping against reason that my voice would reach the Mets organizaiton. Where is Keith on all this. He's written that he loved when opposiing teams bunted. Shouldn't he be mercilessly abusing this play when he sees it, even without himself on defense? If they let us talk to Collins again, or even Alderson, I would expect at least Amazin' Avenue, if not someone else, to ask them just that. I'm sure we'll get a BS type answer out of it, and some blogger spouting off on a conference call is not quite going to be taken as a baseball guru.

Nymr83 Apr 21 2011 09:23 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

bunting to ADVANCE runners, as opposed to SCORING a runner, is a bad play 99% of the time. The other 1% involves situations where you have a pitcher at the plate and its too early to pinch-hit and he is a much better bunter than he is a hitter (think Al Leiter.) Bunting to SCORE a run is a better play, but still over-used I think. I would have given Reyes green light and ordered Thol to take a pitch. I'd do the same on 1-0/2-0. If the count went to 0-1 I'd give Thole the green light to swing with Reyes still having the option to steal if he felt he could. on 1-1/2-1/3-1/1-2/2-2/3-2 i'd have put the hit-and-run on, figuring that even if he strikes out Reyes has a great chance at 2nd. I HATE bunting.

The Second Spitter Apr 21 2011 09:34 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Here's something: Small ball became a large component of the Mets offense instantly as soon as the Wilpons acquired a 100% ownership interest in the Mets. It's been that way ever since*. *Except for the Jerry portion of the 2008 season. Jerry also rejected "the virtues of bunting" for a brief spell last season around the end of May until Luis came off the DL (I think Edgy post some stats to this effect). Funny what effect this had on the NL East race:

Ceetar Apr 21 2011 09:43 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

[url]http://www.tedquarters.net/2011/04/20/stop-bunting/ Ted Berg wrote: I mean, holy crap. Even if sacrifice bunting were guaranteed to be successful, you’d still be giving away an out, an offense’s most precious commodity. And it’s not guaranteed to be successful. Hell, with this particular Mets club, it actually seems to be a freaking longshot. And let’s forget for now that Jose Reyes is one of the best basestealers in baseball, that he already had two steals in tonight’s game and that he was 8-for-8 stealing bases on the season when Terry Collins called for Josh Thole to bunt him to second. Say for the sake of argument that Reyes couldn’t have stolen a base there because, I don’t know, he couldn’t get a great read on Brandon Lyon or something. Why are you playing for one run anyway? The leadoff hitter was on with the middle of the order coming up, including a red-hot Carlos Beltran. Why not aim for a crooked number and a walk-off win? So you can tie the game and put more innings in the hands of your powder keg of a bullpen, the same one that’s blown basically every lead for two weeks? Is that the plan? Tie it up and turn it over to Tim Byrdak? C’mon. Just… c’mon.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 21 2011 09:44 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Bring back Davey Johnson!

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 09:52 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

A great comment from Tedquarters: Devon Edwards 13 hours ago Fire Terry Collins. Sandy Alderson for Manager/GM. Or Lisa Simpson. Look, I've known since I was 7 that I'd never be a pro athlete. I doubt I have the business acumen to be a superb GM. And I don't know what goes on in clubhouses. But tactically, I'm 100% positive that I would be the best in-game manager in baseball. And that scares me. Because I wouldn't be a perfect coordinator in football, and I couldn't diagram a play in basketball to save my life. But ask me what the play is in the bottom of the 9th, and it's beyond obvious. Run Reyes early, then maybe, MAYBE consider bunt him to third, depending on the count.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2011 10:16 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

bunting to ADVANCE runners, as opposed to SCORING a runner, is a bad play 99% of the time. The other 1% involves situations where you have a pitcher at the plate and its too early to pinch-hit and he is a much better bunter than he is a hitter (think Al Leiter.) Bunting to SCORE a run is a better play, but still over-used I think. Having watched, listened to, or followed/reviewed virtually every inning of Mets baseball during the last half-decade, I don't recall Manuel-- even in situations where he was expressly playing for one run-- running ONE squeeze in two-plus years. He bunted to set up runs, then wouldn't bunt to score them.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 10:20 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Of course not. A squeeze fails, it generally falls on the manager. The goal of building your team by setting up an elaborate system of strategic initiatives isn't to win, but to make them all plausibly executable enough to have falure hung on the guy who doesn't execute, delaying as long as possibly having yourself to answer yourself for the fallibility of the actual system, and thereby sustaining your job as long as possible. Now excuse me while I update my 280-day goals.

smg58 Apr 21 2011 11:28 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

I think reason #10 was the best reason not to play for a tie -- our pen just can't be trusted right now. Of course, the first nine reasons all hold, too.

Ceetar Apr 21 2011 11:34 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

smg58 wrote: I think reason #10 was the best reason not to play for a tie -- our pen just can't be trusted right now. Of course, the first nine reasons all hold, too. Well, our pen wasn't overtaxed last night or anything. Even if Izzy doesn't go for a second inning, I trust Frankie to at least give us 1 or 2. I'd be okay playing for a tie if I felt like there was a chance going for more than one run would be detrimental to scoring even one, but that's not the case.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 21 2011 11:40 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

If you're playing for one run with the top of the lineup ... If you're playing for one run when your leadoff hitter leads off the inning by getting on base, then you might as well just forfeit the game. Don't even show up. What's the point?

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 11:45 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Exactly . You want a tie? That pretty much means asking for four or five shutout innings from your bullpen. Because (1) you're looking for only one run from the top of your lineup, (2) the batters get worse after that, (3) you're going to try and win in the subsequent innings by advancing any available baserunners with outs, and (4) experience tells any objective observer that the best you can hope for is to get that right on the second or third try. And experience tells me that asking for four to five shutout innings from my bullpen is not the way to build a winning team. Letting your batters batter is.

bmfc1 Apr 21 2011 11:50 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

This is the best thread in a long time. We've been unified and nobody has been snarky or snippy. It's been instructive and an example of what team message boards should be like. Yeah for us!

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 21 2011 11:51 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

So... thanks, Terry?

Ceetar Apr 21 2011 11:57 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: So... thanks, Terry? He's built a cohesive and unified[crossout]clubhouse[/crossout] fanbase.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 21 2011 12:02 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 01:11 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

The Second Spitter wrote: I wonder how much of this is attributable to AL managers believing you must bunt to be successful in the NL? Let's consider this. Do you think that managers coming over from extended stints in the AL (including perhaps, but not limited to, Jerry and Terry and Torborg) tend to be prone to commit even more to small ball strategies out of some sort of insecurity to prove they cna handle the alleged greater sophisitcation of the National League game?

Centerfield Apr 21 2011 02:15 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

I don't know whether coming from the AL has anything to do with it, but I've just done some quick research and found that managers that tend commit to small ball have the fact that they are shitty managers in common.

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 02:36 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

There sure are exceptions though: Whitey Herzog and, to a lesser extent, Billy Martin.

Rockin' Doc Apr 21 2011 07:41 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

I have always been a big advocate of the stolen base. I think it is an under utilized weapon in MLB of today. Where is Whitey Herzog and the St. Louis track team when you need them to shock the baseball establishment into realizing that BIFL? Bunting has it's place, but it is used far to extensively in today's game. What ever happened to the hit and run (or the run and hit)? I know that the players of today are, as a whole, more into swinging for the fences (contact be damned), but there has to be a place for the hit and run in today's game.* *Now there is a sentence to drive an English professor mad.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 21 2011 08:26 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Rockin' Doc wrote: What ever happened to the hit and run (or the run and hit)? I know that the players of today are, as a whole, more into swinging for the fences (contact be damned), but there has to be a place for the hit and run in today's game.* *Now there is a sentence to drive an English professor mad. I hate the sac bunt and I've beaten that topic to death on this forum. I hate the hit and run even worse than I hate the sac bunt.

Nymr83 Apr 21 2011 08:39 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

why do you hate the hit and run more?

Edgy DC Apr 21 2011 09:03 PM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Herzog certainly was no enemy of the bunt. In fact, he continued to bunt against the Mets even as Hernandez made it look like a worse and worse play, almost as if it was personal between him and Keith.

Ceetar Apr 22 2011 08:11 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

More The Apple goodness Despite the setback, the Mets feel the debut was successful. So successful in fact that the plan to install a similar light in the dugout for manager Terry Collins. Early reports say that the sign will say DON'T BUNT or NO SERIOUSLY, DON'T BUNT. [url]http://www.readtheapple.com/2011/04/new-baserunner-traffic-light-aids-mets.html#more

metsmarathon Apr 22 2011 08:51 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

Nymr83 wrote: why do you hate the hit and run more? just guessing... the batter tries too hard, swinging at bad balls, while the running isn't trying hard enough, looking to the plate instead of simply stealing the base?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 22 2011 08:53 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

metsmarathon wrote: Nymr83 wrote: why do you hate the hit and run more? just guessing... the batter tries too hard, swinging at bad balls, while the running isn't trying hard enough, looking to the plate instead of simply stealing the base? Yep... with the end product being something akin to the first generation of "slash" products (pager/phone/calculator, e.g.)-- for a whole lot of cost, you got a little bit of the worst of each function in the multifunction item.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 22 2011 10:10 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 22 2011 10:15 AM

Nymr83 wrote: why do you hate the hit and run more? I'm glad you asked. Long answer. Because hitting a baseball is the hardest thing in all of sports. I can trot out the cliches about hitting a round ball squarely, or that the best batters fail 70% of the time, but you've, no doubt, heard all of those. But here's how hard it is to hit a baseball: even at the major league level, where rosters are comprised of the best 300 or so hitters (non-pitchers) in the world, most of MLB's non-pitchers suck at hitting. Most hitters suck. Most Major League hitters suck. With the bat, they're liabilities to their teams. Half of all hitters suck and every single team's got 'em. And of the other half, a good percentage of those hitters struggle. In any given season, the number of ML hitters that can reliably and reasonably be counted on to hit well are probably less than 100, maybe even closer to 75. The pitch comes in too darn fast and the batter has no idea where the pitcher intends to throw it. To counter this seemingly insurmountable pitcher's advantage -- to even the odds, or at least make them less unfair -- the ball-strike count has developed over the course of baseball's history so that a pitcher needs to throw three strikes to retire the batter. Even Babe Ruth would be inept were in not for this rule that allowed him and every other hitter a measure of pitch selection and even failure before the at-bat is resolved one way or the other. David Wright is David Wright only because he doesn't have to swing at every pitch. When a manager calls for the hit and run, he essentially eliminates the hitter's best tool -- the right not to swing at a pitch. The pitcher now has a tremendous advantage, while the batter is obligated to connect under the worst conditions possible. The batter has to swing at a pitch that might be unhittable in order to protect a less than ideal baserunner that's off and running. They don't publish hit and run stats, probably because one can't say for sure whether the hit and run play was even on, but to my eyes, the typical result is a foul ball that adds a strike to the count and tips the odds that much more in favor of the pitcher.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Apr 22 2011 10:12 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

(Beautiful work by "sparbz.")

Rockin' Doc Apr 22 2011 11:48 AM Re: Ten Reasons the Bunt Was the Wrong Play

I think the hit and run can be a great weapon when utilized with the proper personnel. If the base runner runs reasonably well and the hitter is good at making contact then I think it can be highly effective. The runner breaking can open holes for ground balls as the defense has to move to cover him. Often times, the resulting ground out still succeeds at advancing the runner to second and thereby accomplishes the same as a sac bunt, but the ultimate hope is to put runners at the corners or possibly drive in a run. Ultimately, the upside for a successful hit and run is far greater than for a successful sacrifice bunt and the worst result can't be any worse than Thole's botched bunt attempt the other night. My personnel preference, is for the runner to steal the base and put themselves in scoring position when they believe there is a high likelihood of their being successful. I believe the keys are to utilize the hit and run with when you have the appropriate people in place, for the runner to break like he's on a straight steal (if the ball is on the ground he has to go , if it's in the air he should have time to stop and retreat back to first, so only the dreaded line drive at a defender should result in getting doubled up), and look for a time when the hitter is likely to see a fastball (first pitch or ahead of the count). The hitter needs to try to put any reasonably close pitch in play, but if the ball is in the dirt or way inside, then he the runner should run with the understanding they are on their own. This may not be the hit and run in the purest sense, probably more of a cross-hybrid with the run and hit, but I would prefer this over bunting so often. Regarding the game the other night, I would have preferred Reyes tried to get a jump and steal second. The Mets need to be more aggressive and force the issue a little more offensively. Over utilizing the sacrifice bunt is not being aggressive, but is more of a passive tactic in my opinion.