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TONY AWARDS predictions

Vic Sage
Jun 08 2011 10:00 AM

The 65th Annual Tony Awards are on Sunday, June 12th, CBS at 8pm, live from the Beacon Theater. Here is my ballot, annotated with explanations (for good or ill):

Best Play
Good People (Author: David Lindsay-Abaire)
The Motherf**ker with the Hat (Author: Stephen Adly Guirgis)
War Horse (Author: Nick Stafford)
Jerusalem (Author: Jez Butterworth) - its a tight race, and i like all the nominees, but this one blew me away. WAR HORSE seems to be the current favorite, however.

Best Musical
Catch Me If You Can
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act
The Book of Mormon - A lock, though the Kander & Ebb show has some support

Best Book of a Musical
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson - Alex Timbers
The Scottsboro Boys - David Thompson
Sister Act - Cheri Steinkellner, Bill Steinkellner and Douglas Carter Beane
The Book of Mormon - Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone - Another lock. Nobody else is close.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
The Scottsboro Boys - Music & Lyrics: John Kander & Fred Ebb
Sister Act - Music: Alan Menken, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown - Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek
The Book of Mormon - Music & Lyrics: Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone - see above; but this is a lot closer category, with the last Kander & Ebb score, plus a catchy Alan Menken score, and excellent work by Yazbeck. A good group of original scores this season, for a change.

Best Revival of a Play
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
The Normal Heart
Arcadia - by default, because LA BETE wasn't nominated, and i disliked this one least of all the nominees, but I think NORMAL HEART will win.

Best Revival of a Musical
Anything Goes
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - No contest for me, but voters seem to be going the other way.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem - for both this and his amazing performance in LA BETE, he edges out Cannavale.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday
Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice
Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter
Frances McDormand, Good People - in a squeaker, over Arianda. McDormand is profoundly moving in this.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can - He makes this show work, to the extent it does. Sentiment might go for Sheldon, in PRISCILLA, or a MORMON landslide might take Gad along for the ride.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Beth Leavel, Baby It's You!
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes - the best of this group, and a true Broadway baby. But i can't vote in this category because Beth Leavel was out the night i saw BABY ITS YOU, and i had no intention of inflicting that show on myself again.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
Billy Crudup, Arcadia
John Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart
Arian Moayed, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Yul Vázquez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat - a fascinatingly eccentric performance; a weak field.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bête
Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves - A tough category. Barkin is great but has only 2 scenes and Rodriguez is 1-note, but the other 3 are close: Lumley is excellent, Light almost makes LOMBARDI watchable, but Falco made me reconsider the play.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon
John Larroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - hilarious; a weak field.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown - one of my favorite performances of the season.

Best Direction of a Play
Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe, The Normal Heart
Anna D. Shapiro, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
Daniel Sullivan, The Merchant of Venice
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, War Horse - Beautifully orchestrated epic; close one over MOTERHF**KER.

Best Direction of a Musical
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - MORMON will probably win, but Ashford really reinvented the look, feel and movement of this show. Stroman is the dark horse.

Best Choreography
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw, The Book of Mormon
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - see comments above; ditto. Stroman also has a shot here. If Marshall wins, I'll be irritated.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Rae Smith, War Horse
Ultz, Jerusalem
Mark Wendland, The Merchant of Venice
Todd Rosenthal, The Motherf**ker with the Hat - clever clever; WAR HORSE a possibility.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Beowulf Boritt, The Scottsboro Boys
Derek McLane, Anything Goes
Donyale Werle, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Scott Pask, The Book of Mormon - just part of the landslide; a weak category.

Best Costume Design of a Play
Jess Goldstein, The Merchant of Venice
Desmond Heeley, The Importance of Being Earnest
Catherine Zuber, Born Yesterday
Mark Thompson, La Bête - I liked them all, but wanted to reward this overlooked production somehow.

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Martin Pakledinaz, Anything Goes
Ann Roth, The Book of Mormon
Catherine Zuber, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Tim Chappel & Lizzy Gardiner, Priscilla Queen of the Desert - A lock; the one standout element of a crappy show.

Best Lighting Design of a Play
David Lander, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Kenneth Posner, The Merchant of Venice
Mimi Jordan Sherin, Jerusalem
Paule Constable, War Horse - between this and JERUSALEM, but more important element for this play

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Ken Billington, The Scottsboro Boys
Howell Binkley, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Peter Kaczorowski, Anything Goes
Brian MacDevitt, The Book of Mormon - when in doubt, go with my favorite i guess.

Best Sound Design of a Play
Acme Sound Partners and Cricket S. Myers, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Simon Baker, Brief Encounter
Ian Dickinson, Jerusalem
Christopher Shutt, War Horse - replicating warfare usually gets awards, and deservedly so in this case.

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Peter Hylenski, The Scottsboro Boys
Brian Ronan, Anything Goes
Steve Canyon Kennedy, Catch Me If You Can
Brian Ronan, The Book of Mormon - sound design in a musical (as opposed to score and orchestration) is hard to assess, so once again i just go with my favorite in the category.

Best Orchestrations
Doug Besterman, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Larry Hochman, The Scottsboro Boys
Larry Hochman & Stephen Oremus, The Book of Mormon
Marc Shaiman & Larry Blank, Catch Me If You Can - I really love the swingin' 60s jazz sound of this score. MORMON will probably win.

Vic Sage
Jun 14 2011 11:18 AM
Re: TONY AWARDS predictions

results:

Best Play
Jerusalem (Author: Jez Butterworth) - its a tight race, and i like all the nominees, but this one blew me away. WAR HORSE seems to be the current favorite, however.
- WAR HORSE is the winner, getting most of the other design awards as well. Big night for the equine. 0 for 1

Best Musical
The Book of Mormon - A lock, though the Kander & Ebb show has some support
- yup. 1/2

Best Book of a Musical
The Book of Mormon - Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone - Another lock. Nobody else is close.
- yup yup. 2/3

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
The Book of Mormon - Music & Lyrics: Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone - see above; but this is a lot closer category, with the last Kander & Ebb score, plus a catchy Alan Menken score, and excellent work by Yazbeck. A good group of original scores this season, for a change.
-yup yup yup. 3/4

Best Revival of a Play
Arcadia - by default, because LA BETE wasn't nominated, and i disliked this one least of all the nominees, but I think NORMAL HEART will win.
- The HEART wants what the HEART wants. 3/5

Best Revival of a Musical
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - No contest for me, but voters seem to be going the other way.
- they did. ANYTHING GOES went. 3/6

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem - for both this and his amazing performance in LA BETE, he edges out Cannavale.
- he does indeed. hilariously bizarre acceptance speech. 4/7

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Frances McDormand, Good People - in a squeaker, over Arianda. McDormand is profoundly moving in this.
- Frannie wins and then accepts with a jean jacket over her fancy frock. Her speech focused on the greatness of the play, instead of on herself. 5/8

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can - He makes this show work, to the extent it does. Sentiment might go for Sheldon, in PRISCILLA, or a MORMON landslide might take Gad along for the ride.
- My vote for Butz puts him over the top! Yeah me! 6/9

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes - the best of this group, and a true Broadway baby. But i can't vote in this category because Beth Leavel was out the night i saw BABY ITS YOU, and i had no intention of inflicting that show on myself again.
- FOSTER wins, but her speech invests all its emotional power in her dresser! Freakin' actors... 7/10

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Yul Vázquez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat - a fascinatingly eccentric performance; a weak field.
- i overlooked the HEART factor, which carried John Benjamin Hickey to the win. 7/11.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves - A tough category. Barkin is great but has only 2 scenes and Rodriguez is 1-note, but the other 3 are close: Lumley is excellent, Light almost makes LOMBARDI watchable, but Falco made me reconsider the play.
- The HEART factor, again, puts BARKIN in the winners circle. 7/12

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
John Larroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - hilarious; a weak field.
- Big John wins. 8/13

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown - one of my favorite performances of the season.
- In addition to the HEART factor, there was the MORMON landslide to contend with. Nikki James, c'mon down! 8/14

Best Direction of a Play
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, War Horse - Beautifully orchestrated epic; close one over MOTERHF**KER.
- Not even HEART could stop this pony from finishing in the money. 9/15

Best Direction of a Musical
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - MORMON will probably win, but Ashford really reinvented the look, feel and movement of this show. Stroman is the dark horse.
- As predicted, MORMON it was. 9/16

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying - see comments above; ditto. Stroman also has a shot here. If Marshall wins, I'll be irritated.
- ok, i'm irritated. Marshall gets it for using the same ole bag o tricks you've seen a million times. 9/17

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Todd Rosenthal, The Motherf**ker with the Hat - clever clever; WAR HORSE a possibility.
- stomped by the HORSE. 9/18

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Scott Pask, The Book of Mormon - just part of the landslide; a weak category.
- indeed. 10/19

Best Costume Design of a Play
Mark Thompson, La Bête - I liked them all, but wanted to reward this overlooked production somehow.
- Nobody else cared, it seemed, because they were so EARNEST. 10/20

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Tim Chappel & Lizzy Gardiner, Priscilla Queen of the Desert - A lock; the one standout element of a crappy show.
- duh. 11/21

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Paule Constable, War Horse - between this and JERUSALEM, but more important element for this play
- The HORSE gallups on. 12/22

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Brian MacDevitt, The Book of Mormon - when in doubt, go with my favorite i guess.
- MORMONS rock! 13/23

Best Sound Design of a Play
Christopher Shutt, War Horse - replicating warfare usually gets awards, and deservedly so in this case.
- HORSE laps the field! 14/24

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Brian Ronan, The Book of Mormon - sound design in a musical (as opposed to score and orchestration) is hard to assess, so once again i just go with my favorite in the category.
- MORMONS convert the voters! 15/25

Best Orchestrations
Marc Shaiman & Larry Blank, Catch Me If You Can - I really love the swingin' 60s jazz sound of this score. MORMON will probably win.


- as predicted, MORMONS won. 15/26

multiple winners:
MORMON = 9 TONYS
WAR HORSE = 5 (plus 1 special tony for Puppetry)
ANYTHING GOES = 3
NORMAL HEART = 3

themetfairy
Jun 14 2011 11:28 AM
Re: TONY AWARDS predictions

Vic Sage wrote:

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can - He makes this show work, to the extent it does. Sentiment might go for Sheldon, in PRISCILLA, or a MORMON landslide might take Gad along for the ride.
- My vote for Butz puts him over the top! Yeah me! 6/9



All threads lead to Vic's Butz....

Ashie62
Jun 14 2011 08:27 PM
Re: TONY AWARDS predictions

Nice job Vic..Thanks.