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KRod's NYM Record

Frayed Knot Jul 14 2011 07:33 AM

Just about a year ago now I tracked MLB games for a month to see how often closers successfully closed out games and also how often they did so without giving up even a single base-runner. I limited the save/blown stats to what we now think of as the standard closer situation in this post-Eckersly era - IOW only those games where the closer came in to start a fresh 9th inning (or extra) with no-outs and no-runners while trying to protect a 1, 2, or 3 run lead. Over about 400 games in an MLB month (mid-July - mid-August 2010) just over 200 had a save situation which qualified under the above criteria and what I found was that saves were converted 81.8% of the time (166 of 203) and were closed "perfectly" just under 1/3 of the time (66 of 203 = 32.5%) Looking at Frankie's Met career he exceeded those percentages somewhat. Of the 78 times where he started an inning in a save situation: - he closed it out 65 times or 83.3% of the time. 22 of 28 in one-run games; 19 of 26 when given a 2-run lead; and a perfect 24 of 24 in 3-run outings. - he closed it out via a 1-2-3 inning 26 times or 33.3% If you believe in the "pitching to the situation" mindset, Rodriguez did have more perfect innings while working in one-run games (39.3%) than in 2-run (34.6%) or in 3-run (25.6%), so he was definitely better when there was a smaller margin for error.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 14 2011 07:40 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

He was a fine relief pitcher most days and I do believe he "pitched to the situation" somewhat, I think successful pitchers tend to.

Ceetar Jul 14 2011 08:01 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

It's interesting, as far as save % goes, even the best closers blow a game more than 1 in 10. Frankie 86% for his career.

Frayed Knot Jul 14 2011 09:42 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

Ceetar wrote: It's interesting, as far as save % goes, even the best closers blow a game more than 1 in 10. About 1 in 6 as it turns out - at least in standard closer situations. Sometimes saves and/or blown saves are misleading stats as a closer might be summoned with the bases loaded and say one out and "blow" the save simply by giving up a weak grounder that's just a hair too slow to turn a DP. On the other side managers tend to throw their closer a cookie every once in a while where just one out qualifies as a save. That's why I wanted to limit what type of save we are looking at. One of the reasons I first decided to look this stuff up is that I suspected blown saves are more common than many fans think which in turn leads to complaints about your own team's closer because fans tend to think that the opposition guy doesn't make his fans suffer as much. I went into this suspecting that while Frankie's save pct was going to be at least average his pct of 'perfect' saves was going to be lower than it was due to his high pitch-count and walk tendencies, but it was actually a bit better than the norm so maybe I'm as guilty as anyone with the 'familiarity breeds contempt' syndrome. His worst stretch as a Met was clearly the back half of 2009.

metirish Jul 14 2011 09:47 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

Nice work FK, I remember Putz couldn't get up for the 8th inning citing the need for the adrenaline rush that came with the big situation of the 9th.

seawolf17 Jul 14 2011 10:04 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

metirish wrote: Nice work FK, I remember Putz couldn't get up for the 8th inning citing the need for the adrenaline rush that came with the big situation of the 9th. I remember that comment. I hate that crap.

dinosaur jesus Jul 14 2011 10:56 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

Putz is like one of those assholes at the gym who thinks he can lift more if he makes monster noises. Just throw the damn ball, idiot.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Jul 14 2011 10:59 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

Wait, dinosaur jesus! Come back! I love you!

Chad Ochoseis Jul 14 2011 11:07 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

Wait...you can't lift more by making monster noises???? I remember Wagner coming up with that same eighth-inning excuse during a stretch when he blew a four-out save or two.

Frayed Knot Jul 14 2011 11:09 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

seawolf17 wrote: metirish wrote: Nice work FK, I remember Putz couldn't get up for the 8th inning citing the need for the adrenaline rush that came with the big situation of the 9th. I remember that comment. I hate that crap. I suspect most of that 'I'm out of my comfort role' kind of stuff is more after-the-fact excuse making than it is actual cause-and-effect. Not that Putz liked the fact that the trade to the Mets in effect "demoted" him, but Omar (or Jeff if you want to blame him) gambled on a recovered JJ in a walk year as a one-season stop-gap but was a year too early in hoping that his injury was behind him.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 14 2011 11:12 AM Re: KRod's NYM Record

Chad Ochoseis wrote: Wait...you can't lift more by making monster noises???? I usually try meowing like a kitty.