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Jason Bay for John Lackey

Gwreck Sep 29 2011 09:28 PM

Great solution or perfect solution to the 2012 season? (Maybe Boston needs to kick in $5 million to make it work). Who blinks first?

Vic Sage Sep 29 2011 10:01 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Lackey is signed at $15.25m/yr for next 3 years, with an option on 2015 ($46m total). He's 33, coming off a disastrous year, which followed a mediocre one. He's had a steadily declining K/9 rate since his peak on `05, with a rising BB/9 rate. Bay is signed for $16m/yr for next 2 years, with a $3m buyout for 2014 ($35m total). He's the same age, with the same type of decline over the past 2 years, though not as bad as Lackey. And for all his offensive woes, he had an OPS+ of 105 last year, which put him over league average. He is also a pretty decent outfielder and baserunner and, by all accounts, a good guy in the clubhouse. With the Mets planning to move in the fence next year, i'd sooner bet on Bay having a better year than Lackey. And even if he doesn't improve, there's more to be gotten from an OFer who can still hit LHP, run a bit, catch and throw pretty well, than from a SP who has lost his fastball and hasn't figured out how to get guys out anymore. never mind the extra $11m he costs. I don't like it. pass.

Frayed Knot Sep 30 2011 07:14 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I'm w/Vic. (NTTAWWT)

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 30 2011 07:20 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Just speculatin' here, but Carl Crawford is probably amenable to a change of address too. No way is his contract worth it, but blah blah blah Reyes out blah blah speed and defense yada yada yada

Frayed Knot Sep 30 2011 07:26 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Crawford's been a GG-quality LFer who somehow managed to look like shit defensively down the stretch, costing them at least two games including that final one. Normally you don't think of defense as something that slumps in the way hitting does but it's tough to explain this year for him in any capacity.

Edgy MD Sep 30 2011 07:40 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Keith always insisted that defense slumps. If so, I imagine that it's just not as obvious as batting because the chances don't come on you so regularly. And the odds remain on your side even at your Butch Hobson-y worst. I guess we're going to be spending a lot of the offseason talking about potentially still-useful pitchers who have prohibitive contracts. Here's a few of the obviousies. Please add any I've missed. Player Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other Matsuzaka BOS 3-3, 5.30 $10 million Tommy John surgery in June. Zito SF 3-4, 5.87 $19 million $20 million $18 million or 7 million buyout Option vests with 400 IP in 2012-2013 or 600 IP in 2012-2014. Zambrano CHN 9-7, 4.82 $18 million $19.25 million option Option vests if CZ finishes in top four in 2012 CYA voiting. Also put up an .848 OPS in 48 PA. (.646 career.) Mercurial and volcanic temper.* Amazing how much of the burden of Zito's contract is still to come. * Yes, it takes comparisons to two gods to describe Carlos' temper.

Ashie62 Sep 30 2011 08:21 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Frayed Knot wrote: Crawford's been a GG-quality LFer who somehow managed to look like shit defensively down the stretch, costing them at least two games including that final one. Normally you don't think of defense as something that slumps in the way hitting does but it's tough to explain this year for him in any capacity. It would be kinda funny if Fred brought in Carl Crawford money.

attgig Sep 30 2011 08:44 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

agree with Vic. Bay is overpaid, but not has horribly as Lackey. plus, i don't know if lackey's really any better than pelfrey. The only reason I'd trade bay is to get someone who's contract ends EARLIER, not later. If you're looking for pitching, I'd think someone like Derek Lowe would be more of a trading deal. overpaid, but one year left. atl could use some OF help. that said, not likely to happen. If ryan braun wasn't in LF, maybe randy wolf could've worked too.

Edgy MD Sep 30 2011 08:54 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Player Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other Matsuzaka BOS 3-3, 5.30 $10 million Tommy John surgery in June. Zito SF 3-4, 5.87 $19 million $20 million $18 million or 7 million buyout Option vests with 400 IP in 2012-2013 or 600 IP in 2012-2014. Zambrano CHN 9-7, 4.82 $18 million $19.25 million option Option vests if CZ finishes in top four in 2012 CYA voiting. Also put up an .848 OPS in 48 PA. (.646 career.) Mercurial and volcanic temper.* Lowe ATL 9-17, 5.05 $15 million Tacky wedding after tacky affair. Drag-racing and charged with DUI after declining to take a breathalyzer test.

Ceetar Sep 30 2011 10:17 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

attgig wrote: agree with Vic. Bay is overpaid, but not has horribly as Lackey. plus, i don't know if lackey's really any better than pelfrey. The only reason I'd trade bay is to get someone who's contract ends EARLIER, not later. If you're looking for pitching, I'd think someone like Derek Lowe would be more of a trading deal. overpaid, but one year left. atl could use some OF help. that said, not likely to happen. If ryan braun wasn't in LF, maybe randy wolf could've worked too. L The Mets don't need offense. Their offense is actually quite good. You can live with a *hopefully* league averageish year from Bay.(which in the worst cases you can probably augment your LF productivity by bringing in a bench guy that hits righties well, and sitting Bay against the tougher ones) Bringing in ackey to suck in the rotation puts pressure on the other four guys to step it up if the Mets are going to be good.

metsguyinmichigan Sep 30 2011 10:36 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

So happy we dodged that Zito bullet. I know I was calling for Omar to sign him.

Edgy MD Sep 30 2011 10:37 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

So, Ceets, you vote to hold 'em --- at least regarding Bay --- and try to get better? Player Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Other Bay NYM .245/.329/.374//.703 $16 million $16 million $17 million or $3 million buyout Matsuzaka BOS 3-3, 5.30 $10 million Tommy John surgery in June. Zito SF 3-4, 5.87 $19 million $20 million $18 million or 7 million buyout Option vests with 400 IP in 2012-2013 or 600 IP in 2012-2014. Zambrano CHN 9-7, 4.82 $18 million $19.25 million option Option vests if CZ finishes in top four in 2012 CYA voiting. Also put up an .848 OPS in 48 PA. (.646 career.) Mercurial and volcanic temper.* Lowe ATL 9-17, 5.05 $15 million Tacky wedding after tacky affair. Drag-racing and charged with DUI after declining to take a breathalyzer test. Crawford BOS .255/.289/.405//.694 $19.5 million $20 million $20.25 million $20.5 million $20.75 million $21 million Boston would have to add a lot of sweetener to get me to swallow that Crawford contract. Hopefully Francona reminds the media that he's not the guy who handed out that deal.

Ceetar Sep 30 2011 11:05 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Yeah. I'd keep Jason Bay. If I traded him, I'd be looking for pitching, but prospect level/young 'stud' reliever. Don't know that you get that. Duda is still a ?, though I like what he's suggesting he can do so far. Personally I think Pagan stays and is valuable, but Bay is almost the most solid spot out there, so it's probably too much to expect Sandy to worry about him as well.

metsguyinmichigan Sep 30 2011 11:37 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Let's give Bay a year to see how he responds to the new fences.

metirish Sep 30 2011 11:52 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I'm sitting on the fence with this one, at least until they are moved anyway.

Ceetar Sep 30 2011 01:03 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

metsguyinmichigan wrote: Let's give Bay a year to see how he responds to the new fences. Irrelevant. If he hits 8 more home runs but still has a .700 OPS and goes 0-30 on a whim, I still want him traded.

Edgy MD Sep 30 2011 01:08 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I'm always for solving problems through development, rather than dealing on the market. On the other hand, baseball-reference compares Bay's career to that of Geoff Jenkins, and Jenkins fell of a cliff at 32. http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ge01.shtml

Benjamin Grimm Sep 30 2011 01:23 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

My guess is that Sandy will try to trade Bay, but won't be able to close a deal. I don't see where else he can shed a big chunk of salary, if he's so inclined. Nobody's going to take on Santana's salary until they see that he can pitch. I don't think Wright is going anywhere.

Frayed Knot Sep 30 2011 02:02 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

metirish wrote: I'm sitting on the fence with this one, at least until they are moved anyway. Sitting on the fence while they move it sounds like it could be painful. Of course it would be worse were it a picket fence.

attgig Oct 04 2011 08:21 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

according to espn rumors, colorado is looking for a full time LF'er. he could be a bounce back candidate for colorado. after their new contract with Tulo, not sure how much money they'd want to put into bay (though they are getting rid of helton's contract). problem is, all their pitching is young and cheap. they won't really have much pressure to throw someone that may be overpaid.

MFS62 Oct 04 2011 08:29 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Any word on the recovery/ progress of Chris Young? Is he still under the control of the Mets? Baseball-reference doesn't tell us the length of the contract he signed with the Mets. If healthy, he might be the best option of all. Then again, "if healthy" has been mentioned in the same sentence as his name for years. Later.

Edgy MD Oct 04 2011 08:35 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Chris Young signed a one-year contract and is a free agent.

Gwreck Oct 04 2011 09:08 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Young will not be ready for opening day given the typical 1 year recovery time from the surgery he had.

Edgy MD Oct 04 2011 09:30 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Plus he'll need a new agent, now that Lon Babby is the president of the Phoenix Suns.

smg58 Oct 04 2011 09:34 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

The Rockies were willing to pay half of Michael Young's salary in the spring, and probably now wish they were more generous. Perhaps they'd be more amenable this time around. They also offered Eric Young Jr. as bait. Young still has upside, and could fill any one of a number of roles. Worth at least looking into. Taking Lackey or Zito would be taking worse contracts. But I'd consider dealing Bay for Zambrano or Dice-K if the numbers work.

sharpie Oct 04 2011 09:49 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I usually don't like trading hitting for pitching. I especially don't like trading hitting for lousy pitching. No. Give Bay a year with the new fences. Hope he isn't Jeff Geonkins.

attgig Oct 12 2011 09:32 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

from Doc Gooden: An American League team with a small park would take Bay... How about the @Yankees? I think Bay 4 Burnett... I would do that in a heartbeat http://twitter.com/#!/DocGooden16 that's a possible suggestion. though i think the consensus around here is keep bay.

metirish Oct 12 2011 09:40 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

The thought of having to root for Burnett is not a pleasant one.

Edgy MD Oct 12 2011 09:43 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I'm guessing Doc isn't operating from a comprehensive knowledge of the league at large. I don't know if it's still like this, but I seem to remember when all WFAN caller trade proposals called on the Mets to trade for: [list:24ft0app][*:24ft0app]All-Stars[/*:m:24ft0app] [*:24ft0app]Yankees[/*:m:24ft0app] [*:24ft0app]Former All-Stars[/*:m:24ft0app] [*:24ft0app]Former Yankees[/*:m:24ft0app] [*:24ft0app]Former Mets[/*:m:24ft0app][/list:u:24ft0app]

Ceetar Oct 12 2011 09:49 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

metirish wrote: The thought of having to root for Burnett is not a pleasant one. he makes more. He's older. I'd consider it... if the Yankees paid most of his salary to the extent that the Mets could just release him in June if he wasn't performing. Also if the Mets had enough outfielders to comfortably play out there, which they don't. They'd have to sign someone. if you tell me you're signing Beltran and Duda will play left, sure. No way they do this anyway though. It's much much easier to extract limited value from Bay via platoons and pinch hitting. What are you going to do with Burnett? long relief? The roster spot for a pitcher is much more valuable to the Mets than the LF spot.

Ceetar Oct 12 2011 09:49 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Edgy DC wrote: I'm guessing Doc isn't operating from a comprehensive knowledge of the options available to the Mets. I don't know if it's still like this, but I seem to remember when all WFAN caller trade proposals called on the Mets to trade for: [list][*]All-Stars[/*:m] [*]Yankees[/*:m] [*]Former All-Stars[/*:m] [*]Former Yankees[/*:m] [*]Former Mets[/*:m][/list:u] You forgot [*]Players who are Met/Yankee killers.

Edgy MD Oct 12 2011 10:00 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

It's been a while for me.

Ceetar Oct 12 2011 10:02 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Edgy DC wrote: It's been a while for me. Felix Hernandez has been the popular Yankee WFAN trade for a while. Fister/Verlander probably get featured soon. Mike Francesa was talkingto Girardi about what he'd do differently in the 2012 postseson yesterday.

Edgy MD Oct 12 2011 10:04 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Thanks for catching me up.

Frayed Knot Oct 12 2011 10:29 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

My long-time view of Met-fan & Yanx-fan trade proposals - whether via WFAN or even going back to 1980s NYPost when they carried a Friday column which let fans loose on that subject - is this: - the typical NYM fan-proposed trades usually involved getting rid of half the team for half of someone else's team: I'd deal McReynolds, Darling, Dykstra, Backman & Knight for ... . They were also big on three and even four way deals which involved at least a dozen players total. For the most part it didn't seem to matter who the Mets had but their fans always wanted someone else, even to the point where if the roles were reversed I swear they'd be trying to deal the guys they had FOR McReynolds, Dykstra, Backman, etc. - the typical Yanqui fan proposed trades were/are just totally one-sided, deals that were along the lines of: Mike Pagliarulo and the then mid-30s Ron Guidry for the in-their-primes Boggs & Clemens. The modern day equivalent involves guys like Felix Hernandez and usually contains phrases like: 'well how 'bout if we pay some of Burnett's salary?', or, '... plus t'row in a coupla prospects' ... (but not the good ones of course)'

Vic Sage Oct 12 2011 01:50 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

bay and burnett are similar in age and contracts, but as has been said, there are values in Bay (on defense, vs LHP, as a baserunner) that, while surely not worth the price, contribute something to a team. But a pitcher who can't be relied on to get out of the 3rd inning? A mop-up guy/spot starter, middle-inning guy at best, but likely not even that. Pass.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Oct 25 2011 02:10 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Yeah, I'll pass on this. Red Sox righty John Lackey will undergo Tommy John surgery, new GM Ben Cherington announced today. WEEI's Rob Bradford reported Lackey's visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum earlier today, noting that the surgery causes a sixth-year option to vest for Lackey at the league minimum. This is a good thing for Boston - it reduces the average annual value of the contract from $16.5MM to $13.8MM, creating luxury tax savings.

Fman99 Oct 25 2011 08:19 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

There's a 100% chance that the Mets give Bay a chance to play all season in 2012 with short porches all over the place. They're going to Fenway up this motherfucker best they can for him, and Wright, and try and sell some tickets.

metirish Oct 26 2011 10:03 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

The Daily News had the Sox going for Sabathia on the back page today. I hope go does opt out of his contract, fuck the Yankees.

Edgy MD Oct 26 2011 10:07 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I understand the sentiment of the last sentence of that post. But I expect the best way to that end might be letting the Yankees tack on another 30-40% of that contract to retain him, and then watching Sabathia's career --- like Sabathia's body --- go all pear shaped.

Ceetar Oct 26 2011 10:13 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Edgy DC wrote: I understand the sentiment of the last sentence of that post. But I expect the best way to that end might be letting the Yankees tack on another 30-40% of that contract to retain him, and then watching Sabathia's career --- like Sabathia's body --- go all pear shaped. logically that makes sense, but I'm tired of looking at contracts and saying "Well, that should go badly at the end of the contract"..we there yet? What about all those innings Halladay has thrown? can we get there already?

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 26 2011 10:23 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Edgy DC wrote: I understand the sentiment of the last sentence of that post. But I expect the best way to that end might be letting the Yankees tack on another 30-40% of that contract to retain him, and then watching Sabathia's career --- like Sabathia's body --- go all pear shaped. You gotta wonder what the appetite is to exceed what he has left on that deal. I know pitchers will be scarce but $92M is a lot to beat, and 4 years is about the limit you'd wanna give him.

metirish Oct 26 2011 10:25 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Edgy DC wrote: I understand the sentiment of the last sentence of that post. But I expect the best way to that end might be letting the Yankees tack on another 30-40% of that contract to retain him, and then watching Sabathia's career --- like Sabathia's body --- go all pear shaped. You gotta wonder what the appetite is to exceed what he has left on that deal. I know pitchers will be scarce but $92M is a lot to beat, and 4 years is about the limit you'd wanna give him. Like they did with Rodriguez, that deal is looking swell on his ageing body.

Edgy MD Oct 26 2011 10:30 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

logically that makes sense, but I'm tired of looking at contracts and saying "Well, that should go badly at the end of the contract"..we there yet? What about all those innings Halladay has thrown? can we get there already? Well, I don't care one way or another about Halladay. I intend to have my team beat the Phillies on the field. But I don't think I should have to enumerate the sour contracts the Yankees hold. Posada got $13.1 million to hit like Jason Bay this season without the defense. Jeter is a load nobody can acknowledge. As noted elsewhere, Feliciano has been and looks to be money down a well. Burnett drew $16.5 million and pitched like Pelfrey. Was that enough to sink the Yankees? Not quite, but it sure helped. I've got to look for more of that. Money the Yankees don't spend on Sabathia will only go toward another top flight pitcher who may be a better investment. The beast is going to eat. Are we there yet? Well, I'm watching a Yankee-free World Series right now. That's always nice.

Ceetar Oct 26 2011 10:39 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Edgy DC wrote: Are we there yet? Well, I'm watching a Yankee-free World Series right now. That's always nice. They made the playoffs, and were a center of conversation for a month while the Mets were mostly being ignored. And they did it with guys like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon who were already well over the hill and seemingly found another one to climb up. I'm just tired of reading about how in a couple of years maybe these Mets prospects will be good and maybe all these contracts the Yankees/Phillies/competition gave out will be hamstringing them and then maybe we have a chance!

Edgy MD Oct 26 2011 10:48 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Well, then, don't read. I'm not sure what I can tell you. If somebody roots for the Yankees to be overcome, I think it's best if they double-down on Sabathia. Irish seems to hope they lose him. You're the optimist. What do you think?

smg58 Oct 26 2011 11:06 AM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

I'm with Edgy. The Yankees have already gotten the three best years they'll get from CC. Let them pay more for the rest of it.

Fman99 Oct 26 2011 12:25 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

smg58 wrote: I'm with Edgy. The Yankees have already gotten the three best years they'll get from CC. Let them pay more for the rest of it. Ten more years, $300 million more. Lets see them A-Rod this fucker up. And then he will fall apart, faster than Amy Winehouse's vital organs.

Ceetar Oct 26 2011 12:50 PM Re: Jason Bay for John Lackey

Edgy DC wrote: Well, then, don't read. I'm not sure what I can tell you. If somebody roots for the Yankees to be overcome, I think it's best if they double-down on Sabathia. Irish seems to hope they lose him. You're the optimist. What do you think? Mets optimist (and I'm worried about that status if Reyes does get away) , not Yankees optimist. Specifically, I want CC to opt out and go to another team. It's not a given that he'll break down on some at some defined age/innings. Maybe he's just one of those guys that stays healthy. After all, I feel like experts have been citing his innings load on his frame for a couple of years now. He even had offseason, minor, surgery on his knee and recovered just fine. I then want the Yankees to give C .C. money to C.J. and get A.J. production.