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Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff ever?)
metsmarathon Sep 23 2011 08:48 AM |
first base is the mets' best defensive position. per total zone, murphy, davis, and evans all saved 2 runs, with duda costing -1 runs. per 1200 innings or 135 games, murphy saves 5 runs, davis 7, and evans 8, with duda at -4.
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Edgy MD Sep 23 2011 08:50 AM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
Turd base: Wright, Turner, Murphy, Harris, Evans.
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metsmarathon Sep 23 2011 09:00 AM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
if i average the two metrics together, then third base ties for worst. but it does not [crossout:p0aze9zc]lead[/crossout:p0aze9zc] trail either metric.
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Ceetar Oct 11 2011 09:49 AM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
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I'm hopeful Pagan will be fine (and if he's not, he won't be here?) because the data does suggest that 2011 was the abberation. Bay's fine. Hopefully Duda will progress with some time. Wright's usually okay, but he gets into streaks where he's just..off. the turning two, especially with ball in play Pelfrey, is my biggest defensive concern, as it's seeming like Murphy's job to lose. Although the catchers/pitchers seemed poor defensively too.
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Edgy MD Oct 11 2011 09:56 AM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
I think the defense is the biggest issue. Hard to address without severely disrupting the offense.
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Edgy MD Oct 11 2011 10:02 AM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
I mean does, yes.
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Edgy MD Oct 25 2011 07:24 PM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
Rare agreement by defensive measurement systems:
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Edgy MD Nov 01 2011 06:44 PM Re: Worst Mets pitching staff ever? |
I see the Mets really looking to go small in centerfield --- find a guy who can help turn their defense around and make every pitcher better, but be offensively inept enough to save them $4 off of Angel Pagan. A solid number-eight hitter, nonetheless with some minor offensive potential.
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 08:04 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
Bill James says Mets suck up the middle.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 02 2011 08:09 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
I think Jose Jose gets a lot of credit for "playing good defense," when what they mean is "he has a great arm."
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 08:11 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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i strongly strongly disagree. He's definitely played Gold Glove defense, he just didn't play it as long this year as Tulo. He's got a great arm, and he gets to more balls than the average SS, especially this past year. He seems to do pretty good on the double play, and he occasionally flubs it but he's really not frequently making errors.
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 08:15 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
JoséJoséJosé says "defend this":
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 08:19 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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some might say it's easier..
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 02 2011 08:20 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Can you show that?
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 08:24 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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if we've learned anything on defense, and if there's anything all defensive measurers agree on, it's to not be overly distracted by error totals. The difference between 12 and 17 errors means little when the real difference between the same two players could be dozens of balls they get to or don't get to which count as hits.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 08:30 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 02 2011 08:31 AM |
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I've become increasing skeptical that defensive metrics can show anything, except somebody's math skills. so no. I repeatedly watch him range far to his left or right to get balls in holes that looked like they were destined for the outfield, and then still manage to throw guys out. I'll agree error totals don't mean much. But it suggests a certain surehandedness and comfort. Less errors can mean less desperate heaves to get a runner he knows is already safe. (of course, he did make 18 errors)
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Frayed Knot Nov 02 2011 08:31 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 02 2011 08:34 AM |
Reyes's defense has always struck me as one where he's better on his feet than most others but not as good off them as some might expect.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 08:32 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Makes sense. He's filled out after the years too. I'd say he frequently makes GG plays, but perhaps not consistently over a full year. Often that's enough to actually get the award though.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 02 2011 08:44 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
But you strongly disagree with a similar sentiment I wrote about three posts back.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 08:49 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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maybe i misunderstood what you were saying in the first post. I read that as suggesting he's in the bottom segment, defensively. I agree with you that there are certain range plays that maybe he doesn't quite get to that a wispier SS gets to (although I'd say he got b etter in 2011 at at least knocking those ones down), but I'm saying I think he's still GG caliber and certainly in the top handful of shortstops.
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batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2011 09:04 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Me, I can't show that. Of the major league shortstops who played enough to qualify for the 2011 batting title, Jose Reyes ranks quite average at 11th (out of 22) in range factor. But take a look see who was 2011's worst. By far. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_ ... order/true
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 09:08 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
that list basically flips upside down for Zone Rating. which is part of the problem.
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batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2011 09:12 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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And how's that? (Though I did notice that Jeter is tops in ZR. Explain that one: Contrived tiny zone designed especially for Jeter? So that he could lead the league in something?)
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 09:19 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Well, that's just it. Is Jeter a top SS because of that zone factor? which means more? Jeter apparently fields all the balls in his defined zone. But he doesn't get a lot of Assists or Put Outs after fielding them? I don't watch every Yankees games, but this would seem to suggest to me that he fields a lot of balls but has no play? Or is it a factor of strikeout/flyball pitchers that he just doesn't have a lot to do? After all, RF in this case is simply A+PO/9. This seems like a lot to do with the pitcher. in fact, a lot of fielding statistics seem to have a lot to do with the pitching staff the guy playing behind.
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batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2011 09:23 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/stats3.shtml
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batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2011 09:25 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 02 2011 09:28 AM |
.
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batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2011 09:27 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Before this discussion spins out of control, let's organize ourselves. So now we're discussing two items: one - reconciling RF and ZR; and two - what does argument #1 have to do with your idea that in 2011, Reyes was a top, GG caliber fielding shortstop? How does your criticism or skepticism of ZR and RF support your argument for Reyes, other than for you to simply dismiss the numbers altogether and tell us that to your eyes, Reyes was GG in 2011?
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 09:50 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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This is a complicated question. For one, my eyes suggest that that Reyes was a top SS. I think he's been underrated defensively in the past as well, but for now, 2011. I'm not trying to argue that position, I'm trying to find arguments that support it. I'm aware my perception could be off. That's one of the things about sabermetrics, trying to mathematically analyze things beyond the things your eyes can lie to you about. Still, if you watch most of the games, the stats should roughly support what you already suspect. You're not going to watch baseball all season and then find someone sabermetric argument for why Josh Hamilton sucks or Alex Cora is awesome. But how do we truly measure fielding? Bill James seems to think Reyes+Turner cost the Mets like a run a week and was the worst such combo in the majors. That seems wrong. I don't see how ZR and RF could disagree so much. Tulo made like no errors. Did he really make spectacular plays and then just flat out not touch a ball hit two feet to his left? Perhaps the difference is in what defines a zone. Jeter made most of the plays hit in his zone, but there are a lot less of these. Tulo ranges outside his zone, to get A and PO on plays that normal SS don't get a chance on. But that's a sloppy way to measure it. Perharps Rockies pitchers just allow a lot more balls in play. perhaps his zone rating is lower because Rockies pitchers allow a lot of hard hit balls that he just can't get to, even though they're technically in his zone, while Jeter gobbles up soft grounders taht C.C. Sabathia makes guys hit into.
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 09:51 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
Range factor is a very poor tool. Bill James invented it and then later dismissed it, with some degree of embarrassment.
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Vic Sage Nov 02 2011 10:11 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
so what are the preferred defensive metrics of the SABR-gentsia these days?
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 10:22 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
There's division. That's what makes the start of this thread remarkable. The Mets sucked by all measures. I suppose that's in part due to the greater playing surface. The pitcher gets blamed for a 390-foot homer. The fielder gets statisically hung some for the same 390-foot drive that bounces for a double.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 10:33 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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There's plenty of division, but I'm skeptical of _all_ of it. It only takes one small misconception or oversight to totally skew what a stat is saying. Not to say the Mets defense was particularly good. But one of the problems with defensive sabermetrics has always been that they generally represent a pretty small sample size to really judge anything by. Most plays, the routine fly balls, the grounders to second, even I could make. A bad week could ruin the year. A guy could play with a sore calf and play poorly on defense for a week or two because he can't pivot around the bag and he's penalized for it, but does that mean he's a bad fielder? I'm extremely confused about what some of these defensive metrics are trying to tell me. There was a great article out there recently about the Brewers, who were really bad in 2010 and not so much last year, despite much of the same cast. Defensive positioning.
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 10:43 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Can you show this to me? Because the data I've seen concurs that the Mets were the worst fielding team in the majors by each of the three leading measures. Concurrence. Corroboration.
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smg58 Nov 02 2011 11:12 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
The +/- is determined by the percentage of plays that are made over a given distance (the plays are broken into bins by distance and, I believe, direction) league-wide, how many plays an average fielder would have made give the number of grounders or flies hit to a given bin under a particular fielder's watch, and how many plays the fielder actually made. In that setup (UZR is a little different, but I'm not sure how or where), the space of the outfield may magnify a negative or positive reading, but it won't make an above-average fielder look below average. (Playing half your games at an altitude might, however, but that's a discussion which doesn't directly affect the Mets.) At any rate, there should not be a significant park effect for infielders, at least that I'm aware of (without artificial turf affecting things anymore).
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 11:23 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
My eyeball test had me thinking there was more than a step or two difference. My eyeball test had me thinking he went from excellent to fair.
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metsmarathon Nov 02 2011 11:32 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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isn't that true of any stat that accumulates over the course of an entire season? a bad outing can blow up an ERA something fierce, or drain a batting average. plus, and i think this is key for most statistics, they measure performance, not talent. and past performance is not always indicative of future results.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 11:56 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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was agreeing with you in re: fielding metrics. I then was trying to say that three wrongs don't make a right.
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Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2011 11:57 AM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
But three lefts do make a right.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 12:04 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Certainly, but if the stat isn't predicting future results at all, is it really measuring what we think it's measuring? UZR is one of those, that drastically swings year to year sometimes for any number of reasons both known and unknown. We all watched Pagan look worse defensively, but sometimes the defender looks roughly the same and there is still a swing. Pagan will be a very interesting case next year. It is true of any stat, but fielding is the least difficult to actually do and probably affected by the most random of effects. wind speed, ambient light, crowd noise (and color! one patch of white-shirted fans in the upper deck at just the right angle and..) , how wet the grass is, positioning, quality of the other fielders (did Pagan go less aggressively towards right field due to some subconscious confidence that Beltran would get everything cause Beltran is awesome and his idol?) How do you measure any of that? How do you know you're measuring actual talent versus merely luck-driven results?
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metsmarathon Nov 02 2011 12:14 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
i think that every stat in baseball, and sports in general, measures, and is dominated by, luck-based results.
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Ceetar Nov 02 2011 12:22 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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But we've gotten a lot better, particularly with hitting, at figuring out what's luck and what's not. Also, we don't even know what % of the game fielding really is. Reyes for instance had already created more runs above average batting in April than he and Turner supposedly cost in defense all year.
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Edgy MD Nov 02 2011 01:43 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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I disagree. Agreement from three independent sources certainly make something righter. That's the point of noting corroboration. And they're all working from a very large data set --- fielding by an entire team at all positions.
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TransMonk Nov 07 2011 01:23 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
Jose getting written up for his defense:
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attgig Nov 07 2011 02:36 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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could that be because Wright has such horrible range, and the balls hit to that general area - most good fielding 3bmen would be getting and not leaving it to the SS?
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Edgy MD Nov 07 2011 02:42 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
If true, that should reflect statistically on Wright, not Reyes.
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Ceetar Nov 07 2011 05:23 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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No, it could reflect positively on Wright/Turner/Murphy, although I don't think it does. If the 3B makes MORE plays, than the SS would end up making less. I don't know the details of those stats. Are those 18 fewer plays hits, or simply balls in play? What's the percentage? It can't simply mean 18 because Reyes did play fewer games (I think anyway) than the average SS. Is it prorated for 162? I always wonder how much of this is positioning. Was Reyes positioned more towards 2B to account for what they may have perceived as lesser range there?
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Edgy MD Nov 07 2011 06:08 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
Well, if his positioning was wise, I imagine it would have shown up statistically.
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Ceetar Nov 07 2011 06:58 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Oh, I was pondering the opposite actually. That his positioning was unwise. More specifically, are the Mets correctly aware of the ranges of their infielders to the point of positioning them properly? You'd hope so, but I'm not sure it's that simple.
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Edgy MD Nov 07 2011 07:08 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
Well, they've fired the infield guy on the coaching staff. But Reyes has been in the division as long as anybody not named Chipper. He should know where to sit and when.
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Ceetar Nov 07 2011 07:10 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
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Hmm..maybe. I imagine players tend to give more credit to their peers than is perhaps warranted. I get he may know Wright, but Murphy (on either side?) and Turner? Tejada? Would he 'shake off' a positioned called from the bench anyway?
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Edgy MD Nov 07 2011 07:14 PM Re: Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff eve |
I'm certain it's a fool's game to try and stick Reyes' failures, such as they were, on the guys on the left and right. The statistics are created to operate independent of that.
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