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NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

metirish Nov 29 2011 09:50 AM

Some good stuff in here NL East: Three fixes for each team By David Schoenfield Sure, every team would love to plug its shortstop hole with Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins. Albert Pujols would look terrific in any uniform. Have a spare $40 million sitting around? Sure, Ryan Madson is an underrated closer. But let's be realistic here: Those can't be solutions for every team. So let's identify three key areas of importance for each team and determine a more likely action plan as the offseason wheeling and dealing starts to heat up. We'll start with the National League East. (Check back all week for the other divisions.) Philadelphia Phillies 1. Shortstop: Empty (Jimmy Rollins, free agent) Rollins just turned 33, but the Phillies would like to bring him back -- on a four-year contract, while Rollins is reportedly looking for a five-year deal that would take him through his age-37 season. While Rollins isn’t the hitter he was in his 2007 MVP season, Phillies shortstops still ranked ninth in the majors in OPS, tied for second in runs scored and tied for sixth in RBIs. Rollins is the obvious candidate here, but if it takes five years, why not go after the younger Jose Reyes? Likely solution: Rollins. The big question: Was his 2011 season a fluke, or will he regress back to his subpar numbers of 2009 and 2010 (.248 average, .306 OBP)? It’s also worth mentioning that Rollins hasn’t been a good postseason player. He has a career .686 OPS in 46 postseason games, and he’s homerless in his past 140 postseason at-bats. 2. Left field: Empty (Raul Ibanez, free agent) Stats you may not believe: Despite Ibanez’s .298 on-base percentage, Phillies left fielders ranked 16th in the majors in OPS and tied for fourth with 95 RBIs. Remember when left fielders owned big bats? Those days are gone. Still, considering Ibanez’s lack of defensive value, it should be easy for the Phillies to upgrade the overall production with Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr. Oddly, the Phillies offered Ibanez arbitration, meaning they’re risking Ibanez accepting and earning a likely payout of $12-14 million. (As Buster Olney writes, there could be a gentleman’s agreement between the two sides to not accept the offer, although Ibanez must know he won’t get anything close to that on the open market.) Likely solution: Brown/Mayberry Jr. platoon. It’s time to give Brown 450 at-bats to see what he can do. Mayberry can play against lefties (and also fill in at first base until Ryan Howard returns). Even if Ibanez DOES return, the Phillies should stick with the youngsters. 3. Third base: 22nd in majors with .665 OPS Here’s incumbent third baseman Placido Polanco's year-by-year WAR (wins above replacement) since 2007, via Baseball-Reference: 5.0, 3.7, 2.5, 2.0, 1.8. He still carries an excellent glove, but this is a player in decline. Factor in that he’s missed 70 games the past two seasons and he’s an even bigger question mark. Likely solution: Polanco will return, but the Phillies would be wise to have a solid alternative. Unfortunately, recent acquisition Ty Wigginton is not the answer, as he's been a below-average hitter each of the past three seasons, despite having a little pop. As the Phillies are learning with Polanco, and will learn with Howard, giving long-term contracts to guys past 30 can be a very risky proposition. Atlanta Braves 1. Shortstop: Empty (Alex Gonzalez, free agent) The Braves didn’t even offer arbitration to Gonzalez, a solid fielder with a little pop, but also the owner of an abysmal .270 OBP. Atlanta has a couple of good shortstop prospects in Andrelton Simmons (.311 in Class A) and Tyler Pastornicky (who hit .314 between Double-A and Triple-A). They may believe Pastornicky is ready to handle the job or maybe they’ll enter the Rollins/Reyes sweepstakes. Likely solution: Considering the state of shortstops, the Braves' best option could be to dangle one of their talented young starting pitchers in a trade. But good luck finding a team with an extra shortstop -- maybe Boston’s Jed Lowrie, with the Red Sox looking for a rotation arm. Short of that, maybe the Braves bring Rafael Furcal back to Atlanta. 2. Left field: Upgrade Martin Prado One hot rumor was the Braves trading Prado for Delmon Young, a “big” right-handed bat the Braves need. Here’s the problem with that rumor: Young isn’t a big bat. Prado had a .687 OPS in 2011 while battling a staph infection, but Young’s OPS was just .695. Over the past three years, Prado’s OPS is .771, Young’s .758. And Young is a lousy left fielder. Anyway, that rumor was quickly shot down for those obvious reasons, but it does point to the larger issue of trying to upgrade left field: If Young is considered a big bat, maybe you’re better off sticking with Prado and hoping for a bounce-back season. Likely solution: Prado. Why not see if he hits better; if not, you can always seek an in-season fix. Or what about a trade for Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier? The Braves could keep Prado as Chipper Jones insurance, and trade a young pitcher for Ethier, who the Dodgers may not want to pay after inking Matt Kemp to a $160 million deal. 3. Right field: More production from Jason Heyward In reality, the best hope for more offense for the Braves rests in improvement from Heyward and sophomore first baseman Freddie Freeman. With Heyward hitting just .227/.319/.389, Braves right fielders ranked just 26th in the majors in OPS, 29th in runs and 27th in RBIs. Likely solution: Heyward is just 22. I think he's going to have a big season. Washington Nationals 1. Rotation: Find a power starter Washington’s rotation actually posted a respectable 3.80 ERA, seventh in the NL, but did so despite averaging just 5.67 K’s per nine innings, 15th in the NL. That's a difficult equation to maintain. With Jordan Zimmermann the only good bet to repeat his 2011 production, the Nats shouldn’t simply rely on a healthy Stephen Strasburg to bolster the rotation. Likely solution: C.J. Wilson. While some expect the Nats to bid for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, why not spend around half the money and go after Wilson? He’s not a classic power pitcher in the sense of fastball velocity but he’s racked up 376 strikeouts the past two years. His adjusted ERA over the past two seasons is seventh best among all starters. If you can pitch in Texas, you could dominate in the NL. And with Strasburg around, he won’t have to shoulder the pressure of staff ace. 2. Center field: Vacant (Rick Ankiel, free agent) Nationals center fielders posted a .691 OPS, 23rd in baseball. They’ve reportedly inquired about one of the Twins’ glove wizards, Denard Span or Ben Revere. But rather than trade away a good prospect for a marginal player like Span or Revere (neither would offer much with the bat), why not play Jayson Werth there? He’d be an adequate defensive center fielder, at least for a couple of years, and clear room for Bryce Harper in right field, who may be ready by the All-Star break. The Nats will also have to find room in a year or so for 2011 top pick Anthony Rendon, a third baseman in college who will have to move positions with Ryan Zimmerman around. Rendon could end up in left field. Likely solution: Move Werth to center, sign a short-term corner outfielder like Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel or Cody Ross (Michael Morse could also play left if Adam LaRoche returns healthy, but is best suited for first base). 3. Manager: Is Davey Johnson the long-term answer? Considering he’ll be 69 in January and hadn’t managed in the majors since 2000, Johnson was an interesting choice to replace Jim Riggleman. Following an 80-win season and with a slew of talented prospects close to the majors -- Harper, Rendon, pitcher Brad Peacock, catcher Derek Norris -- this is a team on the verge of becoming a playoff contender. Maybe not in 2011, but soon. Johnson built a young team in the Mets, but also had veterans Gary Carter and Keith Hernandez as clubhouse leaders. He won in Baltimore, but with a veteran team. Is he the right guy to trust the youngsters as they gain big league experience? I believe he is. New York Mets 1. Shortstop: If not Reyes, who? Likely solution: Sign Reyes, or give the job to Ruben Tejada. He’s never going to hit with any power, but he posted a .360 OBP last season at age 21 (in 376 plate appearances). How rare is that? Since 1980, only three other middle infielders had at least 300 plate appearances at age 21 and posted an OBP of at least .350 -- Alex Rodriguez, Delino DeShields and Jerry Browne. If Tejada can handle short, maybe the Mets are better off spending their money elsewhere. 2. Bullpen: Who closes? Only the Cubs, Rockies and Astros had a worse bullpen ERA than the Mets in 2011, and none of them had the luxury of pitching their home games in Citi Field. While the Mets could certainly use an ace for the rotation (only the most hopeful will believe in Johan Santana's comeback), building a bullpen can be cheap and easy. Likely solution: Ryan Madson? No, he’s too expensive. If the Mets don’t trust a guy like Bobby Parnell, how about a second-tier closer like Frank Francisco, who would cost about $30 million less than Madson? I’d also consider adding a second reliever like righty killer Octavio Dotel or veteran Takashi Saito. Hopefully the Mets learned their lesson with Francisco Rodriguez: Bullpen depth is more important than an overrated $15 million closer. 3. Power in the outfield With Carlos Beltran gone, Jason Bay a shell and Angel Pagan apparently returning to play center, the Mets may be struggling to get power from the outfield. Solution: Move in the fences! (Wait, this will help the other team as well?) OK: Don't discount Lucas Duda, who presumably moves into a regular spot in right field, with the return of Ike Davis to first. Duda hit an impressive .292/.370/.482. His park-adjusted OPS was higher than Troy Tulowitzki, Howard, Shane Victorino or Carlos Gonzalez. Miami Marlins 1. Third base: Empty Since the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, they’ve had four different regular third basemen in four seasons. In 2011, Marlins third basemen ranked 23rd in the majors in OPS and only the Mariners received fewer home runs and RBIs. Certainly, signing Jose Reyes to play shortstop and moving Hanley Ramirez to the hot corner makes perfect sense, especially since Reyes would be a defensive upgrade and maybe moving Ramirez would get his bat back to his 2007-2009 level. Prospect Matt Dominguez, who received a September cameo, carries a superb glove but questionable stick (.258/.312/.431 in Triple-A). He’s still just 22, though. Likely solution: In a year with so few top free agents, the odds are slim the Marlins will be the top bidder for Reyes, new ballpark or not. It’s a nice smoke screen in an attempt to sell a few season tickets. The most realistic option is to give the job to Dominguez, or if management feels that he needs another year in Triple-A, go the stopgap approach and sign a guy like Wilson Betemit. If the Marlins are determined to spend money, they could go after Aramis Ramirez, although a Ramirez-Ramirez left side of the infield is a little scary defensively. (The other option would be to slide Emilio Bonifacio back to third base, but that would mean more Chris Coghlan in center field, and nobody wants that.) 2. Find a quality starter For all the talk about Reyes and Albert Pujols, the Marlins have some problems in the rotation. Their 4.23 ERA ranked 12th in the NL, and that’s despite a pretty good home park to pitch in. Javier Vazquez, who rebounded with a strong second half (2.15), is also a free agent, leaving a current rotation of Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and the eternally disappointing Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad. Brad Hand, who turns 22 in March, is in the mix, but his minor league track record is mixed, and more seasoning in Triple-A to improve his command appears necessary. Likely solution: Re-sign Vazquez and go after a high-risk, lower-cost starter like Erik Bedard. Look, Volstad has made 102 starts in the majors; while he’s still young, it’s time to maybe face the fact he just isn’t that good. He doesn’t miss bats and for a guy who is supposed to be a ground ball pitcher, he gives up way too many home runs (23 in just 165.2 innings). Mark Buehrle would be a nice addition, but Bedard is the more realistic signing. If Johnson returns healthy and Bedard comes up big, the Marlins could suddenly have a strong rotation. 3. Be realistic about appraising your players Volstad isn’t that good. Coghlan hasn’t hit in two years. Gaby Sanchez is OK, but hardly a star -- 20 teams had a better slugging percentage from their first basemen than Sanchez’s .427 mark. (And at 28, he’s unlikely to get better.) Logan Morrison is better suited to first base, not left field, where he's a big defensive liability. Likely solution: Yes, a lineup of Reyes, Bonifacio, Ramirez, Pujols, Mike Stanton, Morrison, John Buck and Omar Infante and would look pretty impressive ... even adding a guy like Aramis Ramirez would plug a hole in the middle of the lineup. Despite their 72-90 record, I don’t think the Marlins are that far away, but I have doubts they’ll be able to lure any of the big free agents. But at least the pitches to guys like Pujols and Reyes indicates the Marlins may be aware that Sanchez isn't a star or that Ramirez's days at shortstop may be numbered. Those are good signs.

TransMonk Nov 29 2011 10:03 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

So, he's basically telling us to stand pat with internal options at SS and RF and to go cheap and deep in the bullpen? I'm not sure it fixes anything, but it certainly sounds like what Sandy intends to do.

Edgy MD Nov 29 2011 10:41 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

You don't have to believe in Johan Santana's "comeback." You get anything out of him, and it's an improvement on 2011. You're already paying, so relative to last season, anything you get is free.

Vic Sage Nov 29 2011 10:52 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Santana's comeback isn't free; it costs a spot on the 25-man roster and a regular turn in our rotation. Theoretically, he'll be replacing Capuano, who went 11-12 for not much money. How much better is Santana going to be? As the writer implies, we have to take it on faith alone that he'll come back from serious injury and do much better than Cappy did last year. So i don't see his return as much of an upgrade in our starting pitching. And with Dillon Gee being penciled in for a full season, i have every good reason to fear an overall decrease in our rotation's quality, since i expect significant regression in Gee's production. Perhaps Harvey or one of the other kid pitchers will step up, or Pelfrey will bounce back, or Niese will develop... But these are all big "if"s. That being said, i don't know that we have any realistic options, FA-wise. building a better bullpen would seem the more cost-effective and realistic option. But it is easier said than done.

Edgy MD Nov 29 2011 11:03 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Wait. You don't think it's worth zero additional dollars to see if Santana can perform better than the last guy on the roster, because roster spots are too expensive? If he's not performing at all to any effectiveness whatsoever, it'll likely be treated as injury related and he'll be placed on the disabled list and bother nobody. Under any circumstances, something from Santana is better than the nothing they got, unless you're confident the Mets will ride him for 20-plus starts to a 7.30 ERA or something, which doesn't seem like a likely scenario.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 29 2011 11:04 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

I stopped reading as soon as I came across this line: It’s also worth mentioning that Rollins hasn’t been a good postseason player

batmagadanleadoff Nov 29 2011 11:08 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Well, they're still paying $25m for Santana, so they'd like to get some semblance of their money's worth. I agree with Sage. BTW, the Mets starting rotation is their big black hole. It's a last place rotation: questionmarks, ceilings that aren't high enough, mediocrity and RA Dickey.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 29 2011 11:16 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Yeah, what Schoenfeld proposes isn't a fix, per se, but this hadn't a team you"fix.;" it's a build-and-wait project. Since we don't have impending contention immediately likely, the what-kind-of-cheapo-bullpen-can-we-cobble-together game is fun without much cost, bar potential in-season agita (and excepting, of course, any none-so-cheapo additionsthat might sneak in there). Keep stockpiling arms and making smart one, year signings, and this becomes a tolerably-medics rotation, with a young bounty just waiting for harvest in the fall.

Ashie62 Nov 29 2011 11:26 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Edgy DC wrote: You don't have to believe in Johan Santana's "comeback." You get anything out of him, and it's an improvement on 2011. You're already paying, so relative to last season, anything you get is free. Free? I'm not comfortable with that even in a "relatively" sense.

Edgy MD Nov 29 2011 11:33 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

The money is his whether we like it or not, so it's best to put that thought aside. Right now, it's just a matter of whether he's healthy enough to give the team more than Chris Schwinden or Dillon Owen. You don't have to be deliriously hopeful to think that he should. Though he certainly might not.

smg58 Nov 29 2011 02:59 PM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

It was Capuano's first full season back from TJS. I see him as sort of the low bar for what to expect from Johan (27 homers in 180 IP while pitching half your games in Citi? There's no positive spin to that), with the naively optimistic high end being Chris Carpenter's full return. I'll happily take something in the middle. The rotation definitely leaves room for improvement, but at least we have five guys who belong on a major league roster (yes, I think Gee pitched well enough to warrant that distinction). Right now I count four major league relievers (Parnell, Acosta, Beato, Byrdak), and the Mets could use three guys who are better than any of them.

Vic Sage Nov 29 2011 03:18 PM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 30 2011 08:30 AM

Wait. You don't think it's worth zero additional dollars to see if Santana can perform better than the last guy on the roster, because roster spots are too expensive? yeah, i'm pretty sure i didn't say anything even remotely similar to that. I said that, in comparing this year's projected staff with last year's, the IP Santana will give us will be not be in addition to, but instead of, what we got from Capuano, who no longer has a spot in our rotation. And no, i don't think we'll get more from him than what we got from Capuano, at least not much more. Certainly not $20m worth more... but you're right, that's a sunk cost and irrelevant since the Mets owe it whether he plays or not. And I'm not saying i wouldn't prefer taking a shot on Santana rather than AAAA borderline guys this season (Besides, we've already got one of those in the rotation with Gee). But its not like we're just adding Santana. We're replacing Cappy's production with his. So no, i don't see that as a big plus for the rotation. Maybe a little "plus", but not enough to make a difference, unless all the other question marks in the rotation are answered positively. which is highly unlikely.

Vic Sage Nov 29 2011 03:31 PM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

The rotation definitely leaves room for improvement, but at least we have five guys who belong on a major league roster (yes, I think Gee pitched well enough to warrant that distinction). Right now I count four major league relievers (Parnell, Acosta, Beato, Byrdak), and the Mets could use three guys who are better than any of them. i suppose i could disagree with you more, but i'd probably sprain something in the attempt. If your criteria for "five guys who belong on a major league roster" is simply 5 guys who were on a major league roster last year, then ok. but i don't think it is. Aside from Dickey, not one of our guys had even a decent year and i've little confidence that any of them but Niese is even capable (much less are LIKELY) to be much better. About Gee: I don't trust a pitcher over the long term whose only good stat in a partial season is "wins". He had a good start but faded badly and is still a AAA pitcher as far as I'm concerned. As for the bullpen, Parnell blew up in high leverage situations, but the other guys you've listed did not have particularly terrible years. Would i like better ones? yeah, but Acosta and Beato are young with good arms and upside, and Byrdak got lefties out, mostly. And considering how little these guys pitch, as compared to starters, thinking that replacing their innings with other low-cost options is the answer (or even AN answer) for the Mets next year is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Edgy MD Nov 29 2011 09:05 PM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Well, the initial plus on Santana over Capuano, if that's how it shakes out, would be $1.5 million to spend elsewhere --- meaningful money, I think, on the Austeritymets.

Vic Sage Nov 29 2011 11:08 PM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Well, the initial plus on Santana over Capuano, if that's how it shakes out, would be $1.5 million to spend elsewhere --- meaningful money, I think, on the Austeritymets. well, with the payroll dropping around $40m, the only place that $1.5m is going is in the wilpons' pocket -- actually, their lawyers' pockets.

Edgy MD Nov 30 2011 07:56 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

The drop in the payroll, like the obligation to Santana, seems to be something that happens either way.

Vic Sage Nov 30 2011 08:27 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

you said: the initial plus on Santana over Capuano, if that's how it shakes out, would be $1.5 million to spend elsewhere and i'm saying "no", it won't be spent elsewhere. its money coming off the budget and instead of going back into the team, it'll go to service the wilpon debts. so its NOT a plus for the team... just for Fred.

Ceetar Nov 30 2011 09:24 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

money not spent on the team is not going to the Wilpons, it's simply decreasing the amount of money the Mets lose next year. (Unless they make the playoffs, which I'd gladly trade for a couple of million profit being taken out..) I don't think Sandy's really 100% set on believing Santana's going to A. make his Opening Day start or b. make 30 starts. There will be other pitchers, on a variety of minor league/incentives/cheap deals that he brings in to Spring Training.

metirish Nov 30 2011 10:07 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

money not spent on the team is not going to the Wilpons I've looked at that several times and well how can you be sure either way?, any money not spent on players could go to other Wilpon ventures, trust funds, pension funds etc.?

Ceetar Nov 30 2011 11:35 AM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

metirish wrote: money not spent on the team is not going to the Wilpons I've looked at that several times and well how can you be sure either way?, any money not spent on players could go to other Wilpon ventures, trust funds, pension funds etc.? I guess you can't be sure sure...but I'm pretty sure. It's almost a lock that expenditures will be greater than revenue (and the Mets have a loan with MLB, beyond the Wilpons financial troubles) so if the Wilpons were to take $5 million and say pay off a trust fund or something, that's $5 million more the Mets are in debt. I think the Wilpons not doing that is the key difference between why they're still here, and the McCourts aren't.

Edgy MD Nov 30 2011 12:05 PM Re: NL East Fixes by David Schoenfield

Vic Sage wrote: you said: the initial plus on Santana over Capuano, if that's how it shakes out, would be $1.5 million to spend elsewhere and i'm saying "no", it won't be spent elsewhere. its money coming off the budget and instead of going back into the team, it'll go to service the wilpon debts. so its NOT a plus for the team... just for Fred. Yeah, I know what I said.